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Thread: Tuesday 2/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Tuesday 2/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Meet the Contenders: Barbara Fritchie & General George at Lau


    February 12, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
    Maryland’s two biggest sprint races, the tradition-rich February fixtures of the Barbara Fritchie and General George Stakes, will be renewed Saturday at Laurel Park. They are part of four consecutive stakes races on a 10-race program that gets underway at 12:25 pm ET.

    Let’s meet the contenders for the Grade 3 $200,000 Barbara Fritchie Stakes (Race 8):

    #1-LAST LEAF: Kentucky-based mare has placed in stakes at Keeneland, Churchill, Turfway and Ellis Park with a midpack, stalking style. Four-time stakes winner in her career has lost 13 straight races but has been knocking on the door for trainer Eddie Kenneally.

    #2-PRODIGY DOLL: Fifth-place finisher in the past two editions of the Fritchie, this Phil Schoenthal trainee exits a blowout victory over a sloppy track in allowance company. Career mark of 1-for-14 in stakes races, including 8 top-4 finishes in those.

    #3-FRECCIA D’ARGENTO: Claimed for $30,000 last May, she has a win and two seconds in 11 starts since coming to Rodolfo Sanchez-Salamon. Well-beaten seventh in the Twixt Stakes, her only stakes bid since – albeit that was at 1-1/16 miles. Name means silver arrow in Italian and according a gray/roan mare.

    #4-DISCO EBO: Parx-based mare has won half of her 20 career starts and will be making her first start at Laurel Park. She won last year’s Youngstown Oaks on the road at Mahoning Valley and was third in Aqueduct’s Garland of Roses, so she’s traveled well. Trainer Butch Reid is coming off a big win Feb. 3 in the Withers at Aqueduct with Uncle Heavy.

    #5-APPLE PICKER: Since moving to the Brittany Russell stable for the 2023 season, this 4-year-old has become a regular on the Maryland filly and mare stakes scene. Runner-up in Laurel’s local prep, the Willa On The Move Stakes, her first attempt against elder rivals. Versatile running style has seen her victorious on the lead and from significantly off the pace.

    #6-INTREPID DAYDREAM: Maryland export returns home after a pair of top-4 placings at Gulfstream Park in the Inside Information and Sugar Swirl Stakes. She’s twice won stakes over this track against restricted company in the Shine Again and Maryland Million Distaff, the latter at the Fritchie distance of 7 furlongs. She reunites with jockey Jevian Toledo, who rode her to four straight wins to end her local schedule.

    #7-BLUEFIELD: Most veteran member of this field at age 8, she would be the oldest winner of the Fritchie if successful and the first over the age of 6 since Skipat in 1981. Gulfstream Park-based mare exits a rallying second in the Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes at the Fritchie distance and also won over this 7F trip at Tampa bay Downs in December’s City of Ocala Stakes. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. took over the duties in 2022 with seven top-4 finishes in 8 starts since. Began her career at Laurel in 2020 and won 3 of her first 4 starts here.

    #8-CONTINENTALCONGRES: Daughter of Constitution seeks her first stakes win while returning to the stakes ranks for the first time since September. Her best races have been when she’s able to make the early lead and jockey Horacio Karamanos likely will make that bid with the Mike Trombetta trainee, just as he did in a wire-to-wire November allowance score at Laurel over this same distance. Karamanos aims for a record-tying fourth Fritchie win, something only accomplished by 1980s local star Donnie Miller Jr.

    #9-BENEATH THE STARS: She’s won a pair of Laurel allowance sprints at 6 furlongs in her three most recent starts since exiting the stakes ranks. Trainer Lacey Gaudet loses regular rider Jevian Toledo, who jumps saddles to reunite with Fritchie rival Intrepid Daydream. Her 6 career wins at Laurel easily top the field, but all 6 have come in the allowance ranks. She’s 0-for-5 overall in career stakes attempts.

    //

    Let’s meet the contenders for the Grade 3 $200,000 General George Stakes (Race 9):

    #1-NO CENTS: Consistent stakes sprinter won the James F. Lewis III and Heft Stakes at Laurel in 2020 and has had top-4 finishes in 8 of 11 stakes overall. New Jersey-bred owns five straight trifecta finishes between Laurel and Monmouth engagements. Expected to be involved in the early pace with the rail draw. Trainer Cal Lynch won the 2013 General George with Javerre.

    #2-COWAN: One-time turf sprint ace, runner-up in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, he’s found a home on dirt since being claimed by Ramond Ginter, Jr. for $62,500. He’s earned just shy of $1 million despite missing the winner’s circle in all 15 career stakes attempts. He rematches with Greeley and Ben in the General George, finishing three-quarters of a length behind that one in the Dave’s Friend at Laurel.

    #3-POST TIME: Smashing winner of the Jennings Stakes 20 days ago, this rising local star returns quickly while looking to improve to 6-for-6 lifetime at Laurel. Spouses Brittany and Sheldon Russell team up with this Frosted colt whose average win margin has been right around 4 lengths. A bullet half-mile workout February 11 at Laurel (fastest of 58) indicates that he’s holding form.

    #4-NIMITZ CLASS: A winner in 11 of 22 lifetime starts, he returns to his old stomping grounds after being outrun in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup as a 26-1 outsider. But his Laurel form has been exceptional with a 7: 4-2-0 local record, which included 4 consecutive stakes wins here last winter/spring. Returns now under the care of Florida-based George Weaver. The sprint distance will be the question mark as he’s done most of his damage in route races.

    #5-SEVEN’S ELEVEN: Distant runner-up to General George rival Post Time in the Jennings Stakes on Jan. 28, he’ll need to make up more than 6 lengths on that one. The Maryland Million Sprint and Bender Memorial Stakes winner is unbeaten in 4 starts at 7 furlongs, so perhaps the shorter trip than the Jennings will help close that gap.

    #6-GREELEY AND BEN: At age 10, he’s the senior member of the General George cast, if not the entire nation’s stakes ranks. Last year’s General George winner was 9-year-old Eastern Bay. Hard to knock a sprinter who is 25-for-44 lifetime, but his last several have not been as fast as his best form. Horacio DePaz is his fourth trainer since September 2022 and he hasn’t seemed to get nearly the early foot out of this one as the previous conditioners. The blinkers come off in an equipment adjustment, but he’s run well with and without them in the past. He won 9 straight and 12 out of 13 during a wild run in 2021-’22.

    #7-TENEBRIS: Hot hand has won four straight starts and takes the class rise for his first stakes attempt. He’s been victorious in all three Laurel attempts since arriving on the scene in December. Jockey Jeiron Barbosa takes over for the first time and will be this 6-year-old’s fifth different jockey in his last six races.

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    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Fair Grounds - Race #6
    Picks Notes
    #2 Baltimore Heart Been waiting for this guy to get a fair chance on the turf with a pedigree that tilts that way, and I'm hoping it comes today. He didn't care for the main track when rained off in the debut run, and he blew the break last out before rushing all the way up for an aggressive press before fading. Could be interesting pace at a price -- like that Loveberry is back up.
    #10 Linzer He'll need scratch help to go, but he is obviously tough with this kind after getting DQ'ed here last month after finding the post first. He's fast but can rate. Lots to like at a probably unappealing price if he goes.
    #1 Debt Paid Price gets shorter this time around, but he woke up a bit when getting this trip for the first time last out. Cozy trip from the fence?
    Race Summary Baltimore Heart did a good bit of running to get up near the pace after a sloppy break last out, and that gives me enough interest in finding out if he can be a more impactful forward player with a clean start -- not sure he's really exposed yet.
    Fair Grounds - Race #8
    Picks Notes
    #3 Ova Charged She should be able to get a perfect run of things while placed wherever her rider sees fit. Think this race might come down to who gets the best trip with a well-timed move, as most of the dangerous players in here have similar styles.
    #7 Oeuvre Probably wasting my time playing against her given how much she loves this course, but I just wonder if there might be someone along to get the last jump on her. Tons of respect for this Illinois-bred.
    #5 Brandon'smylawyer She has some upside at a midrange price while getting back on the turf, as she was stakes placed on the lawn in Southern California. It's way back in her form, but there are some really nice press-and-finish efforts that might leave her in the mix turning for home if she can tap the brakes just a touch.
    Race Summary Ova Charged, Oeuvre and Brandon'smylawyer all have a similar forward style and at least a mild rating ability, but Ova Charged might offer a fair enough price while getting an open-company test on the turf.
    Fair Grounds - Race #9
    Picks Notes
    #1 Osterville Public She needs way better than she has shown in the first two starts, but she hinted at a touch of positional pace last out, and that might be enough to keep her in the frame early in a race without a ton of speed. Interesting if the race flow falls right.
    #3 Churning Berni Only a few very mild finishing efforts on the page so far, but she draws a bit better to maybe avoid the wide kind of trip that hurt her in the last two. A touch better than she looks at first glance?
    #2 Pretty Ana She should be in a dreamy spot tracking what pace there is, and any reasonable upside would keep her in the mix. Would imagine the price will be at least a little bit better today, too?
    Race Summary Osterville Public isn't meeting much pace, and her most recent effort was just a brief chase and fade. Maybe she finds the front end and digs in better today? Wouldn't mind being alive to just the top two on some reach tickets.

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    Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


    Turf Paradise - Race #6
    Picks Notes
    #7 LIGHTING AND REIGN (5-2) Duplicate of rally two back could lead to diploma today.
    #4 LUPITA (8-1) Dueled to the stretch at one mile as beaten fave, has good 5-1/2F race to summon.
    #1 DIVINE GIFT (9-2) Drew clear into turn, gave way in stretch as second-out favorite.
    Race Summary Class droppers abound in this 6F maiden $12,500 claimer. LIGHTING AND REIGN at least showed a passing gear in a near miss two starts back that could come in handy today. She gets pace to run at and gets second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place and play a 4,7/1,4,7/ALL trifecta.
    Turf Paradise - Race #7
    Picks Notes
    #5 THIRSTY (6-5) Should finally carry speed the distance and reward loyal backers in this spot.
    #7 WESTERN CHARM (6-1) Rallied for a win and a third at 5F with Lopez up, can complete exacta.
    #1 EL CAPRICHO (4-1) Numbers translate well in this spot for Golden Gate invader.
    Race Summary THIRSTY continues to burn serious money, but he will have no excuse today in his second start since exiting the allowance ranks. He dueled 4-wide through fast fractions last out, emerged with the lead, but couldn’t hold off the deep-closing top trio of longshots. Play 5-1 and 5-7 exactas.
    Turf Paradise - Race #8
    Picks Notes
    #2 TWIRLING GINNY (3-1) Sat perfect trip but impressed visually, nonetheless, in debut romp.
    #4 CALEB’S LADY (4-1) Strong start to career here, returns to town as a stakes winner, gets Lasix again.
    #5 WOK DON’T RUN (5-1) Appeared in photo finishes in last three tries at 5-1/2F, goes 6F today.
    Race Summary TWIRLING GINNY, bothered slightly out of the gate, settled into a dream stalking trip off the dueling leaders in her debut. She raced a bit erratically when making her 3-wide move in early stretch but leveled off with a strong surge to win going away. Hit the repeat button with a win and place bet.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

    PURCHASE
    Turf Paradise - Race 4
    $1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.20 Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot (Races 4-5-6-7-8-9)
    Maiden Claiming $4,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 58 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 1:34P
    FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * KAMIKAZE BLUE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Z EE PERFECT RUN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HAUGHTY KITTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
    3
    KAMIKAZE BLUE
    7/2
    5/2
    2
    ZEE PERFECT RUN
    3/1
    9/2
    4
    HAUGHTY KITTY
    5/1
    8/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    3
    KAMIKAZE BLUE
    3
    7/2
    Alternator/Stalker
    66
    53
    46.0
    42.8
    39.3
    2
    ZEE PERFECT RUN
    2
    3/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    0
    0
    55.4
    41.8
    37.3
    4
    HAUGHTY KITTY
    4
    5/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    57
    36
    28.4
    33.8
    27.3
    6
    THRILL TOWN
    6
    5/2
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0
    0
    2.8
    17.1
    11.1
    1
    ADORABLE WISH
    1
    10/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0
    0
    0.0
    20.9
    10.9
    5
    LUCKY LARA
    5
    4/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0
    0
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair GroundsPURCHASE


    Fair Grounds - Race 8
    Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Daily Double
    Stakes • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up CR: 104 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 4:15P
    MARDI GRAS S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * OEUVRE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at l east 50. CARIMBA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BRANDON'SMYLAWYER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POPPY FLOWER: Horse ranks in the t op three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. REDIFINED: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
    7
    OEUVRE
    3/1
    5/1
    2
    CARIMBA
    7/2
    7/1
    5
    BRANDON'SMYLAWYER
    10/1
    8/1
    6
    POPPY FLOWER
    5/1
    8/1
    4
    REDIFINED
    6/1
    9/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    2
    CARIMBA
    2
    7/2
    Front-runner
    105
    95
    112.3
    95.7
    87.7
    5
    BRANDON'SMYLAWYER
    5
    10/1
    Front-runner
    100
    99
    103.4
    98.6
    89.1
    8
    SWEET TEMPERAMENT
    8
    10/1
    Front-runner
    99
    96
    101.9
    88.4
    70.4
    10
    JUMPIN JUDY
    10
    15/1
    Front-runner
    93
    95
    84.7
    67.6
    49.6
    1
    DANA'S BEAUTY
    1
    20/1
    Front-runner
    98
    93
    63.0
    76.8
    57.8
    7
    OEUVRE
    7
    3/1
    Stalker
    108
    97
    91.8
    92.8
    89.8
    3
    OVA CHARGED
    3
    4/1
    Stalker
    90
    99
    87.8
    91.6
    76.6
    4
    REDIFINED
    4
    6/1
    Trailer
    102
    97
    83.8
    88.2
    79.7
    6
    POPPY FLOWER
    6
    5/1
    Trailer
    101
    96
    66.8
    92.0
    82.5
    12
    NAUGHTY LOTTIE
    12
    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    82
    81
    112.8
    83.4
    60.9
    9
    BREEZE EASY (GB)
    9
    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    94
    91
    81.6
    88.0
    76.0
    11
    LADY HIDEAWAY
    11
    12/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    104
    100
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0

  7. #7
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 10 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 81

    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 5 MIDNIGHT CAT 9/2
    # 6 THISTLE 3/1
    # 10 SAL N LOUIE 8/1

    I've got to go with MIDNIGHT CAT. This colt has been consistently racing well in his latest outings. Has to be considered - I like the figs from the last affair. Florescoba has shown excellent profits (+1 return on investment ) with horses in dirt sprint events. THISTLE - Must be given a chance here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. Is tough not to examine given the company run in lately. SAL N LOUIE - Wyner has this gelding racing well and is a formidable selection based on the solid Equibase Speed Figures recorded in sprint races lately. He has formidable class ratings, averaging 80, and has to be given consideration in here.

  8. #8
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #6 - Post: 3:04pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,400 Class Rating: 77

    Rating:

    #6 SHELLY THE ROCKET (ML=7/2)


    SHELLY THE ROCKET - Utilizing this jock/trainer combination is a good move. The fact that this mare is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. Have to make this mare a solid contender; she comes off a strong contest on February 5th.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #3 JILL BABE (ML=5/2), #4 MALIBU MARLEE (ML=3/1), #7 CAGUA (ML=4/1),

    JILL BABE - This morning-line favorite may be out of form without any recent morning blow outs. Not probable that the speed rating she garnered on January 8th will be good enough in this event. MALIBU MARLEE - If you keep betting these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be frustrated regularly. CAGUA - Should have at least hit the board in the last sixty days in a short distance affair to be worth it at short odds in a sprint. The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not placing a wager on this runner off of that trend.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS: #6 SHELLY THE ROCKET is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
    EXACTA WAGERS: None

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    None
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip

  9. #9
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 2 - Claiming - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $7800 Class Rating: 79

    QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 6 PRINCESS BEACH 5/2
    # 5 SPECIAL MOON FLASH 6/1
    # 3 FAST DASH N PERRY 2/1

    PRINCESS BEACH looks solid to best this field. Is difficult not to examine based on Speed Figures which have been respectable - 68 avg - of late. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the contest. The Equibase speed fig of 60 from her most recent contest looks quite good in here. SPECIAL MOON FLASH - Handler has sharp win rate (17 percent) at this distance and surface. Clark has her trained quite well to break swiftly out of the gate. FAST DASH N PERRY - Must be given a chance - I like the figs from the last contest. Looks very good for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid figures in short races as of late.

  10. #10
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    Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 68

    Rating:

    #1 EL CAPRICHO (ML=4/1)


    EL CAPRICHO - The January 27th affair at Golden Gate Fields was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the ladder based on class rating points considerably, so he should be in a good spot. That last workout was at a longer distance. That's got to be a good omen. Gets help from Dennis with the addition of Lasix. Finished out of the money last out at Golden Gate Fields, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think he's got a chance.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #5 THIRSTY (ML=6/5), #6 FAST AS FAST CAN B (ML=5/1), #7 WESTERN CHARM (ML=6/1),

    THIRSTY - This equine hasn't been close in either of his last couple of efforts. Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a short distance affair to be worth a shot at modest odds in a sprint. FAST AS FAST CAN B - Not easy to play any vulnerable equine in a sprint contest if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months. In the last affair this pony finished eighth. Doesn't bode well for his chances this time out. WESTERN CHARM - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned regularly. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the likely underlays list.

    GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - EL CAPRICHO - Having the best speed fig last race of 67 at Golden Gate Fields on Jan 27th. This gelding has an excellent chance to win here.





    STRAIGHT WAGERS: #1 EL CAPRICHO to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
    EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with [2,3]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Skip
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

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