Wednesday 2/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

Picks	Notes
#7 Ima Sure Bet	She scored from off the pace to graduate the last time she was sent two turns, and her finishing style might play well in a race where some of them seem suspect late.
#5 Uncaptured Path	There are some running lines from last year that would make her tough, but she has some improving to do off the comeback when she faded late. Wouldn't be a shock to see her bring something better today.
#6 Fabiola Princess	She finished just in front of Uncaptured Path when they last met, but she has already had a decent number of chances at this level and tends to give away ground late.
Race Summary	Ima Sure Bet has some appeal while getting back around two turns, and I don't totally trust the other listed pair to stick around late. Think this could be open for the taking late.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

Picks	Notes
#8 Prosecutor	Tactical pace rarely runs a bad one, and he might get a great run of things while drawn outside the other forward players. First-jump trip?
#4 Ciro the Boss	Tough to argue with either of the last two, and he looks in the mix right back against better today. He has really come to life for this team.
#1 Eagle Nest	Bit worried about him taking the worst of the pace from the fence, but I also think he's the most dangerous speed player in this group. Wouldn't shock to see him lead the whole way.
Race Summary	Prosecutor should be in a good pressing spot from the wide draw, and the price might be OK again today despite his super-reliable form.

Mahoning Valley - Race #0

Picks	Notes
#7 Hot Princess	She moved forward a bit in the second start when showing some pace and not stopping as badly as the first time around, and I'm hoping there is a bit more improvement in store in the third start while meeting a group that doesn't have much early burn.
#4 Stick Around	She's not meeting a whole lot today, so it wouldn't be a shock to see her roll this group. She finished second in her first two races but was beaten by 11 and 21 lengths in those starts by runaway winners, so I'm not totally sure if she just defaulted into being 'best of the rest' in those starts. I'll be skeptical if the price gets short.
#9 Nublada	Feel like this is a race that could be very much in reach for a fresh face. She's not meeting the most memorable group for this level, so I wouldn't be shocked to see her score at first asking.
Race Summary	We'll see what the debuter on the outside does, both on the tote and as far as affecting the race flow, but Hot Princess might be able to flash enough pace to keep her in the mix in a spot without much speed -- and without much finishing ability. Think someone near the top could put this away into the lane.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

Picks	Notes
#2 DREAM TRAP (5-2)	Gets class relief, sheds 12 pounds, takes some catching in this spot.
#1 VICIOUS MOVES (12-1)	Reversed form in second-out win, reverted back to debut form in follow-up.
#3 SPIRIT OF POWER (9-5)	Made good moves, finished second in last two for twice this amount.
Race Summary	DREAM TRAP chased the even-money winner and held third at one mile, now looks to be the target on the class drop in a longer route race. She gets in light-weighted and gets the call for a win and place bet.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

Picks	Notes
#5 TORO FORWARD (10-1)	Steady turf route numbers, barn going well, price attached.
#10 SUENO PROFUNDO (9-2)	Hasn’t been seen since smashing maiden score in Argentina in 2022.
#1 COLPO D’ORO (4-1)	Led at stretch call before trio of deep closers arrived at same distance.
Race Summary	TORO FORWARD followed the move of the 2-1 winner and finished second while 4-wide from post 10 two starts ago. He failed to threaten in a faster-paced follow-up, but he draws a better post and should get ample pace flow to loom in upset contention. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-10 exacta box.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6

Picks	Notes
#6 DOIN’ITTHERIGHTWAY (8	Far back at 6-1/2F in latest, finished with some interest.
#2 POLITICAL RIOT (6-1)	Appears rounding to another good race but double-digit odds will cease.
#1 HE’S IN CHARGE (9-2)	Raced evenly in rapid-paced long sprint on ‘off’ track, use in all gimmicks.
Race Summary	DOIN’ITTHERIGHTWAY left too much work to do after spotting the field double-digit lengths on the backstretch. He advanced wide on the turn and finished okay on his own courage but was no threat to the leaders. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 2:20P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RIP N ROLL: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CR BLACK CHILL: Horse has the highest average Equibas e Class Rating at the distance/surface. RM LETHAL CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LOUISIANA JESS BLUE: Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	RIP N ROLL	5/2	9/2
6	CR BLACK CHILL	9/2	6/1
1	RM LETHAL CARTEL	5/1	7/1
3	LOUISIANA JESS BLUE	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RM LETHAL CARTEL	1	5/1	Slow	61	56	6.7	0.0	0.0
2	JR MITEY EFFORT	2	12/1	Slow	0	0	7.2	0.0	0.0
3	LOUISIANA JESS BLUE	3	7/2	Slow	54	52	7.2	0.0	0.0
4	IM ON FIRST MAN	4	8/1	Slow	0	0	6.2	0.0	0.0
5	PYTHAGORAS	5	10/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.5	0.0	0.0
6	CR BLACK CHILL	6	9/2	Slow	63	54	8.8	0.0	0.0
8	RIP N ROLL	8	5/2	Average	66	56	5.4	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: THE SECOND TOUCH (6/1) [Jockey: Aguilar Claudio Ponce - Trainer: Aguirre Ricardo].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 2	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 2-3-4)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $36,200 • Post: 1:12P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHTALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. OUR BUCKWHEAT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ONE MORE CHAPTER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaste r Power Rating. OUR BUCKWHEAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. HIDDEN ACCESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	ONE MORE CHAPTER	5/2	9/2
4	OUR BUCKWHEAT	9/5	5/1
6	HIDDEN ACCESS	2/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	OUR BUCKWHEAT	4	9/5	Front-runner	68	74	60.7	45.5	40.0
6	HIDDEN ACCESS	6	2/1	Stalker	74	69	59.8	61.4	54.4
1	ONE MORE CHAPTER	1	5/2	Trailer	79	76	43.2	72.6	69.1
2	MONSTER HUNTER	2	10/1	Trailer	75	65	32.2	56.2	49.7
3	CLEVELAND POWER	3	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	69	62	56.2	58.2	49.2
5	MARVIN'S EXPRESS	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	57	49.4	49.4	39.9