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Steve Janus
Feb 15 '24, 12:45 PM in 5h
Soccer | Sporting Lisbon vs Young Boys Bern
Play on: Sporting Lisbon -111
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/15/24
February 15, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Thursday, February 15, 2024
RACE 1
2-BELLLE EPOQUE
Degree of confidence: B+
• Returns to dirt and is realistically spotted in a maiden claimer.
• Holds a considerable advantage in the speed figure department.
• Speed and fade in a much tougher spot; these are her friends.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 2
3-BIG RAINBOW
Degree of confidence: C+
• Second in three of her last four outings; overdue for a win.
• Beaten choice in last two starts; may be a hard one to trust.
• Career top fig last race; was more than five clear of the rest.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 3
1-NORTH EAEST STAR (IRE)
Degree of confidence: C+
• Stretches out again; unplaced in both prior two-turn races.
• Major jockey switch to Juan Hernandez; lands the good rail.
• Probably the controlling speed; can get brave on the lead.
Others to consider: 3-Dolly May (Ire); 2-
RACE 4
2-ROBERTA’S LOVE
Degree of confidence: B+
• Has done plenty in the morning that points her as a win early type.
• Daughter of Collected has recorded two recent breezing bullet drills.
• The known element does not impress so a fresh face may be preferred.
Others to consider: 4-Chasing Kat; 3-Really Thirsty
RACE 5
4-RUFF RIDE
Degree of confidence: B
• Strong on figs and was a recent winner over the course and distance.
• Reunited with win rider Juan Hernandez and packs a powerful late kick.
• Moving from starter allowance to the first level but can handle the hike.
Others to consider: 5-Sensible Move; 3-Turiaf.
RACE 6
6-KNOWN IDEA
Degree of confidence: B+
• Stout looking colt with plenty of substance has displayed a.m. talent.
• Cal-bred Goldencents colt has been given a solid foundations of drills.
• Not a lot of early zip signed on; likely to be a dangerous early factor.
Others to consider: 1-Two By Four
RACE 7
8-BEEF WINSLOW
Degree of confidence: B+
• Vastly improved since joining the Mark Glatt’ lands cozy outside post.
• Earned a career top figure when winning over the tricky Hillside course.
• Away since late December but sports a healthy recent workout pattern.
Others to consider: 7-First Peace; 6-Mubtadaa.
RACE 8
6-WILL BE
Degree of confidence: B+
• Sharp second in a similar spot at Los Alamitos; was six clear of the rest.
• Impressive series of workouts in the interim and switches to Frankie.
• Pace stalking style is perfectly suited for this extended sprint distance.
Others to consider: 3-Matanzas Creek.
RACE 9
1-AUTOLINE (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B
• Improving with racing; just graduated over this course and distance.
• Prefers to settle early and kick home; race flow should favor him.
• Earned a career top figure in last start, is likely to step forward again.
Others to consider: 7-Mega Moon; 9-Numero Dix (GB); 5-Lahaina Flavor.
Jon White: Risen Star Picks, Plus Kentucky Derby Top 10
February 14, 2024 | By Jon White
I am really looking forward to seeing what happens in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes this Saturday (Feb. 17) at New Orleans’ venerable Fair Grounds. The 1 1/8-mile affair, in my opinion, has attracted the best field of 3-year-olds assembled for a graded stakes race so far this year.
From the rail out, the dozen entrants are Tizzy Indy (50-1 on the morning line), Awesome Ruta (30-1), Honor Marie (6-1), Sierra Leone (4-1), Moonlight (12-1), Real Men Violin (8-1), Hall of Fame (6-1), Catching Freedom (5-1), Cardinale (12-1), Resilience (12-1), Track Phantom (7-2) and Bee Dancer (20-1).
This race is named in honor of the Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male of 1988. A son of the great Secretariat, Risen Star won eight of 11 lifetime starts. After finishing third in the Kentucky Derby won by the filly Winning Colors, Risin Star won the Preakness Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths and Belmont Stakes by 14 3/4 lengths. Winning Colors finished third in the Preakness and sixth in the Belmont.
Below are my Risen Star Stakes selections:
1. Sierra Leone
2. Hall of Fame
3. Track Phantom
4. Honor Marie
Perhaps Sierra Leone isn’t going to win this race. After all, he is returning from a layoff and has much bigger fish to fry on down the road. But I was too impressed by his Remsen Stakes performance in defeat not to put this $2.3 million auction purchase on top when making my Risen Star selections.
While Track Phantom has been installed as the 7-2 favorite on the Risen Star morning line, I think there is a very good chance that Sierra Leone will be the betting choice when the sophomores break from the starting gate.
Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone came from off the pace to win a one-mile maiden race by 1 1/4 lengths when unveiled on Nov. 4 at Aqueduct. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt then narrowly lost the Grade II Remsen at 1 1/8 miles on Dec. 2.
Far back on the muddy track when last early in the field of 10, Sierra Leone ran huge to lose the Remsen by a scant nose. His Beyer Speed Figure soared to a 91 after recording just a 71 in his first race.
Sierra Leone is adding blinkers for the Risen Star.
It is rather unusual for such a highly colt to keep getting a new jockey. Manny Franco rode Sierra Leone in his first race. Jose Ortiz was aboard in the colt’s second start. This time Tyler Gaffalione will be the pilot.
I was tempted to make $1.4 million auction purchase Hall of Fame my top choice in the Risen Star off his 10 1/4-length maiden victory in a Fair Grounds maiden race on Jan. 20. He had finished second at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26 in his only previous start.
Hall of Fame, like Sierra Leone, is a Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt. Steve Asmussen trains Hall of Fame.
How big was Hall of Fame’s maiden victory? He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.27, a clocking that was quite a bit faster than Track Phantom’s final time of 1:44.73 that same day when winning the Grade III Lecomte Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths.
Hall of Fame’s Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden win was a 94, compared to Track Phantom’s 90 in the Lecomte.
The Thoro-Graph number for Hall of Fame’s maiden victory was a 5, compared to Track Phantom’s 6 in the Lecomte.
While I consider Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior to the Beyers. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
Asmussen (inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame in 2016) trains Track Phantom. The Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt, a $500,000 auction purchase, has reeled off three consecutive victories. Track Phantom won a maiden race at Churchill on Nov. 25. That was followed by back-to-back Fair Grounds wins in the Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 23 and Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 20.
Track Phantom sports an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern: 74, 81, 88, 89 and 90 going into the Risen Star.
Honor Marie likewise has a Beyer pattern that’s going in the right direction: 71, 81 and 92. That 92 figure was recorded in his last start, a come-from-behind two-length win in Churchill’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 25. Whit Beckman trains the Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt.
“For those not familiar with Beckman, he came up under Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown,” Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote this week.
Haskin has Honor Marie ranked No. 3 in his latest Derby Rankings, below only No. 1 Fierceness and No. 2 Sierra Leone.
Beckman “worked with such top-class horses as Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Stay Thirsty, Super Saver, Princess of Sylmar, and his favorite Eskendereya for Pletcher,” Haskin wrote, “and Good Magic, Bricks and Mortar, Rushing Fall, Goodnight Olive, Sister Charlie, and his favorite Cloud Computing for Brown.”
SUNLAND PARK DERBY SELECTIONS
The Grade III Sunland Park Derby, which also will be contested this Saturday, has drawn a field of eight to do battle at 1 1/16 miles.
The 5-2 morning-line favorite is Southern California shipper Stronghold, a colt by 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper.
From the rail out, the Sunland Park Derby field consists of No Trouble (10-1 on the morning line), Surroundedbyangels (12-1), Curlin’s Kaos (5-1), Lucky Jeremy (4-1), Stronghold (5-2), Alotaluck (6-1), Da Ringo (20-1) and Informed Patriot (3-1).
Stronghold, trained by Phil D’Amato, is making his initial 2024 start this Saturday.
On Nov. 19 when making his stakes debut, Stronghold finished a distant second to budding superstar Nysos in Del Mar’s Grade III Bob Hope Stakes at seven furlongs.
After Stronghold’s runner-up effort in the Bob Hope, he again had to settle for second, though this time he got much closer to victory. He lost the Grade III Los Alamitos Futurity by a half-length to Wynstock on Dec. 16.
Below are my Sunland Park Derby selections:
1. Stronghold
2. Informed Patriot
3. Curlin’s Kaos
4. Lucky Jeremy
KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week is the same as it was last week. I’m thinking that there is a good chance whoever wins the Risen Star will take over the top spot next week.
Below is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week:
1. Fierceness
2. Hades
3. Mystik Dan
4. Locked
5. Sierra Leone
6. Dornoch
7. Hall of Fame
8. Track Phantom
9. Timberlake
10. Born Noble
Bubbling Under My Top 10: Book’ em Danno, Catching Freedom, Conquest Warrior, Domestic Product, El Grande O, Forever Young, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Liberal Arts, Lightline, Nash, Just Steel, Real Macho, Real Men Violin, Snead, Speak Easy, Stretch Ride, The Wine Steward, Tuscan Gold, Tuscan Sky, Timberlake, Uncle Heavy and Victory Avenue.
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING
Grade I Locked has been tabbed as the 10-1 morning-line favorite among 39 individual horses in Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which opens for betting this week at noon ET Friday (Feb. 16) and closes at 6 p.m. ET Sunday (Feb. 18).
The 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby will be run on May 4.
Locked, trained by Todd Pletcher, had to miss the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last Saturday (Feb. 10) after spiking a temperature. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt won last year’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland prior to finishing third to Fierceness and Muth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 3. Locked has not raced since the Breeders’ Cup.
BC Juvenile winner Fierceness is the 12-1 second choice on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line. The Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2023 finished third as the 1-5 favorite while making his 2024 debut in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3 for Pletcher.
Holy Bull winner Hades is 30-1 on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line. Holy Bull runner-up Domestic Product is listed at 60-1.
The belief here is that you generally should be trying to find a horse or horses at generous odds, not a horse like Locked at odds of 10-1 or thereabouts. Remember, the KDFW has no refunds.
Mage’s closing price in KDFW Pool 4 last year was 48-1. He would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. His odds on race day were 15-1.
I’m going to take a look at putting a small wager on the horses below if their prices remain anywhere close to what they are listed at on the morning line:
--Forever Young at 40-1. Undefeated and untested in three starts in Japan last year, he is expected to make his first 2024 start in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby on Feb. 24. How good is Forever Young? I think he might be as good as, or possible better than, Derma Sotogake, who as a 3-year-old last year finished second to White Abarrio in the Grade I BC Classic.
--Hades at 30-1. He has not tasted defeat in three career starts. With a perfect record and a win in the Holy Bull when defeating last year’s 2-year-old male champion, we really don’t know how good Hades is at this point.
--Mystik Dan at 20-1. While many attribute his eight-length victory in the Grade III Southwest Stakes to an inside bias and/or a muddy track, I was impressed by him visually and by his 101 Beyer Speed Figure. I’m not interested in betting him if he’s lower than 20-1. But I plan to go ahead and make a small bet on him at 20-1 or higher.
--Timberlake at 30-1. He recorded a sharp five-furlong Fair Grounds workout in a bullet :59.40 on Feb. 10. Winner of the Grade I Champagne Stakes on a sloppy track before finishing fourth in the Grade I BC Juvenile, he is targeting Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 24 to kick off his 2024 campaign. I’m hoping he stays around 30-1 in KDFW Pool 4.
--Tuscan Gold at 50-1. In Tuscan Gold’s lone start as a 2-year-old, he ran fourth at first asking in a one-mile maiden race won by Risen Star Stakes contender Sierra Leone at Aqueduct on Nov. 4. In his 3-year-old debut, Tuscan Sky won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 6 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Jan 31.
Before you make any bets in Pool 4 this week, you probably should monitor what happens in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes on Saturday (Feb. 17).
Seven 3-year-olds entered in the Risen Star are among the 39 individual horses in KDFW Pool 4. They are Catching Freedom, Hall of Fame, Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Resilience, Sierra Leone and Track Phantom.
You also might want to check out what occurs in the third race on the Risen Star undercard, a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimer that has attracted the likes of Nash, Tuscan Sky and Ethan Energy.
Moonlight is cross-entered in the third race and the Risen Star. He’s expected to run in the Risen Star.
Below are the morning-line odds for 2024 KDFW Pool 4:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Agate Road (50-1)
2. Amant Bianco (90-1)
3. Born Noble (40-1)
4. Capital Idea (80-1)
5. Catching Freedom (25-1)
6. Conquest Warrior (20-1)
7. Deterministic (99-1)
8. Dimatic (80-1)
9. Domestic Product (60-1)
10. Dornoch (15-1)
11. El Grande O (80-1)
12. Epic Ride (60-1)
13. Fierceness (12-1)
14. Forever Young (30-1)
15. Hades (30-1)
16. Hall of Fame (20-1)
17. Honor Marie (25-1)
18. Imperial Gun (80-1)
19. Just Steel (80-1)
20. Just a Touch (60-1)
21. Knightsbridge (30-1)
22. Lat Long (90-1)
23. Liberal Arts (60-1)
24. Locked (10-1)
25. Lucky Jeremy (90-1)
26. Mystic Dan (20-1)
27. Nash (30-1)
28. No More Time (40-1)
29. Real Men Violin (90-1)
30. Resilience (99-1)
31. Sierra Leone (15-1)
32. Speak Easy (30-1)
33. Stronghold (99-1)
34. Timberlake (30-1)
35. Track Phantom (20-1)
36. Tuscan Gold (50-1)
37. Tuscan Sky (80-1)
38. Uncle Heavy (40-1)
39. West Saratoga (99-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings (2-1)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 287 National Treasure (18)
2. 250 White Abarrio (10)
3. 187 Senior Buscador
4. 186 Idiomatic (2)
5. 163 Saudi Crown
6. 107 Newgrange
7. 91 Warm Heart
8. 83 Didia
9. 60 Speed Boat Beach
10. 39 Arabian Knight
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Even though No More Time won the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes in front-running fashion by 1 1/4 lengths last Saturday (Feb. 10), he did not crack the Top 10 in the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll this week.
Topping the poll again this week is Nysos, who is ineligible to earn qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby due to his trainer, Bob Baffert, being barred from running horses at Churchill Downs Inc.-owned tracks. The suspension stems from the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit being disqualified from his win in the 2021 Kentucky Derby after testing positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day.
Most recently, Nysos registered a resounding victory in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths on Feb. 3. He’s won all three career starts by a combined 26 3/4 lengths.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 310 Nysos (31)
2. 200 Muth
3. 177 Fierceness
4. 160 Track Phantom
5. 150 Hades
6. 128 Locked
7. 122 Mystik Dan
8. 93 Dornoch
9. 63 Sierra Leone
10. 42 Maymun
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #6
Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes #9 Brilliant Berti Not sure this is the deepest local special weight, and he'll go first out with a reliable string of works and a pedigree to suit the trip. #5 Pure Poetry He showed some pace and faded in the debut at Ellis in July, but he's back fresh with Lasix for a tough team, and it would be zero surprise to see him bring something a lot better today. #7 Dream Cruise Get a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him be live enough to land a share at a midrange price. Race Summary #4 Night Out and #1 Rock N Roll Bolt both make enough sense to have on the reach tickets, but I think the top two might be able to settle the score today.
Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes #8 Cocoa Icing Her form can be spotty, so I'd want a fair price, but she's racing off the September break with a good spying trip likely waiting for her as the speedier players sort things out early. #12 Heckled Wide draw gave me just enough hesitation to keep her out of the top spot, but I love the way she broke through with that easy score last time out to graduate after a long series of underneath shares. Not impossible right back. #10 Paint Me Perfect I wouldn't argue at all with anyone taking a strong lean here, as her recent baseline might just be a tiny cut above what the rest are likely to offer. Think she figured it out. Race Summary #9 Hay Stack seems logical, too, but I wanted to see something just a bit better from her last out. Cocoa Icing might be just playable enough in a competitive race.
Picks Notes #9 Cajun Mischief He draws well while outside of a field full of horses who only know how to chase and fade, and his ability to get past horses should be a huge asset today. Strong lean to close the card. #9 Puppeteer He seemed to find a home last out at this level, but he still wasn't a serious threat to the winner that day. Not sure how much upside there is today with a handful of other forward players waiting for him again. #5 Catalina Day He has some room to come forward while getting back down in class off the trio of special weight tries, but he's another who has the same potential issues today while likely finding an early battle. Race Summary Cajun Mischief should get the dreamiest trip in behind a bunch of horses who want to stop late, and I'm hoping his grinding finishing style will play well here.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Gulfstream Park - Race #2
Picks Notes #5 GENERAL ROBINSON (3-1) Should sit good trip at proven level, switches riders again. #3 TRIBUTE (6-1) Chased 5-to-1 winner, held third at 7F off three-month layoff. #1 SUBTLE FAITH (2-1) Disappointed at one mile, can’t be discounted off prior two sprints. Race Summary GENERAL ROBINSON rallied for second behind the 3-to-5 winner at 5-1/2F, then made a middle move going a route of ground for $8,000 and flattened out. She is ideally spotted on the class drop at 6F with pace to rally into. Bet to win and place.
Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #1 LEGENDARY PHANTOM (7-2) Exits MSW ranks, returns as gelding for high-percentage connections. #3 JABRAN (9-2) Raced wide in lone 6F try, gets Lasix and blinkers and Velazquez to ride. #8 SIMOSOUM (2-1) Second in 2 of 3 sprints on Tapeta track behind allowance-placed rivals, gets Irad. Race Summary LEGENDARY PHANTOM shows a pair of good 4F works at Gulfstream leading to his first start as a gelding. He was in contention in MSW turf sprints and should go well for a trainer-jockey combo on an 11-for-28 run. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-8 exactas.
Picks Notes #1 HAY HAY HARRY (7-2) Set rapid pace, shook pair of challengers, impressed in maiden romp. #3 FOR SOME REASON (4-5) Chased 4-to-5 winner around the track in 1:10.2 off the Joseph claim. #4 KHOPESH (20-1) Made last-to-first move going a route of ground, then trailed in turf debut. Race Summary HAY HAY HARRY dueled with a pair of rivals through fast fractions before he drew away in the stretch to break his maiden with second -time Lasix. He has odds-on morning-line favorite FOR SOME REASON to deal with today, but he could be up to the task at the same distance. Bet to win and place.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE
Charles Town - Race 5 Claiming $6,250 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 8:53P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SECRET CASTLE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. A LITTLE BIT CR AZY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THUNDERTURTLE: Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18. VIKING QUEEN: Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SECRET CASTLE A LITTLE BIT CRAZY THUNDERTURTLE VIKING QUEEN
Line
Class
Speed
FigureRIDE THE RAPIDS Stalker A LITTLE BIT CRAZY Stalker THE MONEY MACHINE Stalker VIKING QUEEN Alternator/Stalker THUNDERTURTLE Trailer SECRET CASTLE Alternator/Trailer SHERIFF'S KID Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair GroundsPURCHASE
Fair Grounds - Race 3 Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 1:45P FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. HAWAIIAN ARGUMENT is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * FAMILY CREED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHAWN'S SOLVING: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at t he distance/surface. Z'S GUITAR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FAMILY CREED SHAWN'S SOLVING Z'S GUITAR
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSHAWN'S SOLVING Front-runner MUCHO BUENO Front-runner FAMILY CREED Front-runner HAWAIIAN ARGUMENT Stalker PALANTE Trailer CHAOTIC JACK Trailer COUNTRY GUY Alternator/Trailer Z'S GUITAR Alternator/Trailer PERFECT STRIKE Alternator/Non-contender WESTERN STAR Alternator/Non-contender
Turf Paradise - Race #11 - Post: 4:32pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 64 Arizona Breeders S.
Rating:
#4 U CAN DO U (ML=3/1)
U CAN DO U - Look at this pattern of improvement. 43/54/57 are the last three Equibase speed figures. Ran in the last race against a high class rated field at Zia Park. The move to a lower level should suit him well. Eikleberry, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in this race. A positive sign.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SHUDDER (ML=4/1), #7 SARAH'S BIG BANG (ML=9/2), #5 CRYPTO CONSPIRACY (ML=5/1),
SHUDDER - Not the best 'situation' in this clash. SARAH'S BIG BANG - Can't play this entrant in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance race lately. CRYPTO CONSPIRACY - The Brain tells me to keep away from thoroughbreds in sprint races that haven't finished in the money in short distance affairs recently. Improbable that the speed figure he garnered on November 13th will be good enough in this clash.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #4 U CAN DO U to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - SO - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 97
SA - R9 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $50,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 5 LAHAINA FLAVOR 6/1
# 9 NUMERO DIX (GB) 8/1
# 7 MEGA MOON 3/1
LAHAINA FLAVOR looks to be a strong contender. Has to be given a chance based on the very good Equibase Speed Fig posted in the last outing. He has very good class ratings, averaging 98, and has to be given a shot in this event. Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager for this race. NUMERO DIX (GB) - Overall, this conditioner has been money-making at this distance/surface. MEGA MOON - It's a good sign that Miller is using Prat on this entrant. Has put up sound speed figs in turf route races in the past.
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 51
Rating:
#5 GHOST OF LONDYN (ML=6/1)
#3 WEEKEND RETREAT (ML=3/1)
GHOST OF LONDYN - Batista was aboard this gelding last race out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last time out. Under normal track conditions, has a chance right here in this race. WEEKEND RETREAT - Trainer, Gorham, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Look for this gelding to show better right here. Last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour finishing fourth on a track listed as good is no sign of his true ability. He has the top earnings per start. Check out this horse.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 C V DYNAMIC (ML=2/1), #2 OLLIE'S FOLLY (ML=4/1), #4 EQUITY CAT (ML=8/1),
C V DYNAMIC - Have to put a question mark next to the last speed fig since it was obtained on a track listed as good. OLLIE'S FOLLY - This gelding registered a speed rating in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event. EQUITY CAT - 8/1 is not priced right for any racer in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint contest of late.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #5 GHOST OF LONDYN on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 80
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 SUSTENANCE 5/2
# 3 SPENDOLINI 3/1
# 6 HARVEY SPECTER 4/1
SUSTENANCE is the strongest bet in this race. He should definitely be given consideration given the solid speed figures. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Looks quite good against this group of animals and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. SPENDOLINI - Is tough not to consider based on Speed Figures which have been very good - 66 avg - of late. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Beattie have shown very solid results lately. HARVEY SPECTER - Geist has him trained very well to break swiftly out of the gate.
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