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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Mahoning Valley - Race #2
Mahoning Valley - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 It's Official He has historically been a bit light for this level, but I think he might work out a really cozy trip from the fence while tucked in just behind the pace players. #4 Inside Stunt Nothing to argue about with his recent running lines, and he showed a new element when pressing his way to a score last time out. The one to beat again, but I wonder if there could be a small step backward waiting for him in the near future. #6 Over the Hills He has dangerous pace from the outside, and the draw might allow him to hassle Inside Stunt the whole way while racing up top. Not impossible, but I think it's a touch more likely that he settles underneath. Race Summary It's Official might offer a price that's just playable enough with the potential for an inside tracking trip today. Hoping he's able to bring his A-game as something like the third choice.
Mahoning Valley - Race #8
Picks Notes #2 Plain or Peanut He might offer another solid price despite turning in two really honest efforts so far since getting back over the local footing, and he might be in a decent midpack spot to spy the horses on either side of him who both own some pace. #3 Fivefive Six Champ He's the one to beat on the rise for the new team after rolling a cheaper group in his local debut here earlier this month, but I have the mildest worry that the stretchout runner on the rail will force him to try to rate -- something he has historically not been great at doing. #6 Frog Town I wonder if he's just the tiniest bit better going one turn than this route trip, but he has some positional pace and is right in the mix with the better running lines in this group. Race Summary Plain or Peanut might be a chronic nibbler with that one win and lots of smaller shares, but he is once again a good fit with these and probably gets at least a little overlooked.
Picks Notes #2 Immense Faith He's probably going to take a lot of action, but he has pretty reliable form with claiming company at Gulfstream and seems like a good fit at this local level. First-jump trip tracking the stretchout pace? #6 Shortly These two might combine for a very short exacta, but believers here might get a better price this time around than the 50 cents on the dollar he offered last out. He has had a lot of chances, almost always fires, and rarely threatens a winner. He's probably the right one if the top choice doesn't fire. #3 Finistere He has shown a little finishing ability in some of those sprint tries so far, and a more leisurely route tempo might allow him to find one pace that suits him better. Race Summary Immense Faith is probably supposed to handle these from close range with the Gulfstream form he brings, and he should be in line to take command when the brief pace from the outside folds.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Parx - Race #1
Parx - Race #2
Picks Notes #3 BIAGIO (10-1) Longshot stab after showing pulse for $40k, must stay in closer contact on backside. #7 LEX (4-1) Busy work tab the last two months at Fair Hill, gets leading jockey. #4 UNCLE ARLYS (9-2) Lake firster worked 5F twice from gate; dam was 14/2-4-2 with $67k bankroll. Race Summary BIAGIO earned a competitive speed figure in his third start at 7F with a willing finish from the far turn to the finish behind a runaway winner. Now he gets class relief and Lasix on the cutback to 6F in an unproven field. Play a 3-4-7 exacta box.
Parx - Race #4
Picks Notes #6 MATTY BO (7-2) Dueled to stretch in last pair, can control pace better in this spot. #9 HIDDEN CACHE (2-1) Also has speed and favorable post to use it from on the class drop. #7 JACKIE B GOOD (6-1) Late-running threat if she can avoid another troubled start. Race Summary MATTY BO ‘dug in gamely’ and held second last out and dueled to the stretch before the deep closers passed by in the race prior. With a 14/2-4-1 record, she has done the least wrong against eight rivals who are a combined 16-for-184. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #6 LONG LEGGED BOY (5-1) Rallied for minor awards in shorter sprints, can pay off quickly on claim. #2 MIDNIGHT CAT (5-2) Ran 1-2 in 5 of 9 Parx starts, benefits from near miss in comeback route. #1 ACHILLES HEEL (3-1) Dull in last pair, drops below claim level, moves outside in. Race Summary LONG LEGGED BOY rallied into a slow pace to finish second at 5-1/2F two starts back, then bumped with the 4-wide runner-up when he finished third as the beaten favorite at 7F last out. He steps up off the claim and is worth using in a 1-2-6 exacta box.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE
Turf Paradise - Race 1 Claiming $8,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 12:55 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BOSS NINE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOSS NINE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. WESTWARD LOOK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figu re at the distance/surface. BOSS NINE WESTWARD LOOK
Line
Class
Speed
FigureBOSS NINE Front-runner WESTWARD LOOK Stalker BEACH HOLIDAY Trailer FRISCO KID Trailer MISCHIEVOUSHOLIDAY Alternator/Trailer LUCKY SMILE Alternator/Non-contender TRACK BOUND Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana DownsPURCHASE
Louisiana Downs - Race 5 Allowance • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:45P QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DRAGONES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. QUICK LUNCH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. SHELBY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. TF JESS A EAGLE: H orse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DRAGONES QUICK LUNCH SHELBY TF JESS A EAGLE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureDRAGONES Average JW CORONA DRESSED Fast QUICK LUNCH Fast ADASHA DOS TRES Slow TF JESS A EAGLE Slow SHELBY Fast
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 73
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 6 POLITICAL TRAIN 2/1
# 3 OPEN EAGLE 4/1
# 2 SWEET DASH 9/5
POLITICAL TRAIN has a formidable shot to take this race. With a nice class figure average of 76, has one of the top class advantages in this group. Is a strong contender based on figs posted recently under today's conditions. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been solid - 67 avg - of late. OPEN EAGLE - Jourdan has this filly travelling well and is a formidable pick based on the quite good Speed Figures put up in short races lately. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved swiftly to the lead recently. SWEET DASH - Has been close up at the finish most every time lately. I think having Aquino ride this gelding is a smart choice.
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:08pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 98
Rating:
#4 FREEDOM RIDER (ML=5/1)
FREEDOM RIDER - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a nice race is a good signal.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 COME SEE ABOUT IT (ML=2/1), #3 CONFESSOR (ML=5/2), #5 DOWNTOWN CONNECTOR (ML=7/2),
COME SEE ABOUT IT - This chalk horse ran on January 23rd and hasn't had a drill since then. He probably cannot repeat that last stretch run effort and win against this bunch. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. CONFESSOR - This closer will probably be coming much too late to make a mark in this event. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event. DOWNTOWN CONNECTOR - No pace in this bunch to help set-up his late rally. Notched a common speed fig last time around the track in a $15,000 Claiming race on January 23rd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 FREEDOM RIDER is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 89
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 20 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 5 ALLEVARE 7/2
# 4 SPEIGHTSTER RED 9/2
# 9 SILVER EDGE 4/1
I think ALLEVARE is a very good choice. Has been racing admirably and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Must be considered based on the competitive speed figure recorded in the last contest. Is tough not to look at given the company run in lately. SPEIGHTSTER RED - He has competitive class ratings, averaging 93, and has to be given consideration for this race. Strong average speed figs in dirt route races make this pony a solid contender. SILVER EDGE - Recently Pollara has provided bettors with a respectable winning percentage with horses moving in dirt route races. With a quite good 88 Equibase speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this outing.
Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 2:49pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 101
Rating:
#3 PRAYER OF JABEZ (ML=3/1)
#7 MR. STANG (ML=7/2)
#4 MEDIMPACT (ML=4/1)
PRAYER OF JABEZ - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. MR. STANG - On Feb 1st this gelding shipped in to win and looks good right back. Enriquez rode this thoroughbred for the initial time in the last race and comes right back this time. I like the case that this gelding's last figure, 101, is tops in this group. Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a strong outing on Feb 1st. MEDIMPACT - I am keen on that recent effort on Jan 25th at Sunland Park where he ended up first. Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should perform well today. Cappellucci moves this animal here to Turf Paradise from Sunland Park. Looking at the horse's past performance lines, he has shown the ability to win at multiple tracks. Another way to evaluate class is (EPS) earnings per start. This thoroughbred has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the end.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BRADY BOY (ML=9/2), #2 THE SINNER IS YOU (ML=5/1), #5 CREATIVE BID (ML=6/1),
BRADY BOY - Last ran on February 12th at Turf Paradise, finishing third. Not likely to get better off of that try in today's event. Improbable that the rating he recorded on February 12th will hold up in this event. THE SINNER IS YOU - Finished second in his most recent race with a common rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. CREATIVE BID - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races lately. Improbable to see him doing it this time either.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #3 PRAYER OF JABEZ to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [3,4,7] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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