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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/23/24
February 23, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, February 23, 2024
RACE 1
1-ANTIBES
Degree of confidence: B-
• Tough beat when missing in a photo facing similar foes last month.
• Lands the preferred rail post and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip.
• Retains Juan Hernandez, solid on figures, appears ready to graduate.
Others to consider: 5-Maxville; 4-City of Angels.
RACE 2
2-TANGLEDUPINGREY
Degree of confidence: C+
• Makes a trainer change, tries a drop in class, seems as good as any.
• Shows several better than par speed figures for this $12,500 level.
• Soft pace projection, likely to settle into a comfortable stalking spot.
Others to consider: 6-Elevado.
RACE 3
3-ARROGATES SPIRIT
Degree of confidence: B
• Away since November of 2022, workouts on solid, should fire fresh.
• Returns as a first time gelding, removes blinkers, first time in seller.
• Has some early speed, first time two turns, projects as pace factor.
Others to consider: I Got a Guy; 6-Hardmoneymuchachos.
RACE 4
4-DON’T BRING CRAZY
Degree of confidence: B
• Distant but respectable second in Santa Ynez Stakes, tackles easier.
• First time Lasix, projects to have a strong pace presence throughout.
• Solid on speed figures, healthy work pattern, ready for a career top.
Others to consider: 3-Tambo; 6-Blackprink (Ire).
RACE 5
6-WEEMISSGRAMMY
Degree of confidence: B
• Showed improving form last year before having her season cut short.
• Comeback drills indicate she might be a better type this time around.
• Goes for red hot jockey/trainer combo; employs an ideal stalking style.
Others to consider: 3-Etheric; 2-Sunglasses (GB).
RACE 6
3-E J WON THE CUP
Degree of confidence: B+
• Burned money as the favorite in three of his last four outings.
• Deserves one more chance with a drop into a maiden optional.
• Returns to the main track and stretches out for the first time.
Others to consider: 6-Winsitwell.
RACE 7
7-GYPSY QUEEN
Degree of confidence: B
• Freshened since November, class drop to $30,000 is a bit suspicious.
• Brief work tab on the comeback trail is another concerning factor.
• However, lands top rider Juan Hernandez and is fastest on figures.
Others to consider: 5-The Bullion Bomber (Ire).
RACE 8
8-WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE
Degree of confidence: B-
• Second in last pair and earned career top speed figure facing similar.
• Comfortable outside draw ensures an ideal pace stalking journey.
• Never worse than second in five career starts over the local strip.
Others to consider: 1-Uncontrollable.
RACE 9
3-RED CROSS KNIGHT
Degree of confidence: C+
• Four wins in eight career starts with consistent figs for this level.
• Versatile colt can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position.
• Much better post position, projects to be prominent throughout.
Others to consider: 1-Moogie Son; 2-Billy’s Bet.
Tampa Bay Pick 4 | Friday, Feb. 23
February 23, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
TAMPA BAY DOWNS PICK 4
Friday, February 23, 2024
The road to Tampa Bay Downs’ $8,338 Pick 6 Jackpot carryover pool this Friday, Feb. 23, will go through the 50-cent Late Pick 4 that shapes up this way:
TAM 6th race (2:56 p.m. EST) -- HOLLYWOOD CLOSEUP’S first try on conventional dirt wasn’t bad. He was unhurried to the far turn, advanced steadily while wide to mid-stretch and flattened out. He gets in light-weighted again, gets a better post and should get a livelier pace to rally into. TUCKER ROAD is 0-for-9 on conventional dirt but he dueled a long way when third last out and exited three consecutive main-track routes that produced two winners each late last year.
TAM 7th race (3:27 p.m. EST) -- MR EXTENSION steps up off the claim but is a must use as a value play in his third start this year. He stalked odds-on favorite Yes I’m A Beast (9-23, $244k), came under a drive near the top of the stretch and did well to hold second. His performance was upgraded when the winner came back with a wire-to-wire score in an $8,000 starter allowance. BUFF HELLO, the beaten favorite in four of his last five starts, class drops after a vet-voided claim, sheds 10 pounds and draws a good post to use his tactical speed from, but he’s too risky of a solo play in the Pick 4. ROGER McQUEEN was claimed for the seventh time since last February and looms an upset possibility on his best effort for a barn that won with 2 of 3 claims at the current meet. IMTAKINITTOTHEBANK broke through with a well-deserved victory after he dueled and just missed in two prior 6F sprints, one against MR EXTENSION and the other from post 10 against next-out, class-rising repeater Fly Fly Away.
TAM 8h race (4:03 p.m. EST) -- Good recent form and six-figure bankrolls abound in this 6-1/2F starter allowance that drew eight entrants with a combined 42-for-176 record on a fast track. Hit the ‘ALL’ button.
TAM 9th race (4:40 p.m. EST) -- I’M STILL BRAVE gained late but settled for second best behind 3-to-5 Victory Line at 5-1/2F on a day that featured five wire-to-wire winners. BACK TO REALITY ranged up 4-wide for the stretch drive, raced a bit headstrong in the lane as the beaten favorite, now adds blinkers for his second start off the claim.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
TAM 6th Race: 2, 4
TAM 7th Race: 1, 3, 5, 8
TAM 8th Race: ALL
TAM 9th Race: 1, 7
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $64
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #8
Fair Grounds - Race #3
Picks Notes #11 Poetic Road I feel like this is not a great race even for the local level, and it might be begging for someone to move up while trying something new. Tough draw is no bargain, but I think the price should be right to see if he has any upside at all on the move around two turns. #7 No More Words Think he's probably the right one, but the barn has burned a lot of money in races like this here over the last couple years, so I'm a little hesitant despite the fact that they've just overwhelmed everyone else this season in sheer volume -- including wins. Capable player from close range. #9 Tableaux Reseaux He's another trying two turns for the first time, and he has cuts the claiming price in half for this third career start. Enough conceivable upside to keep him in the mix. Race Summary Not sure what to do with #5 Freddie By a Nose who has wildly underperformed his 9/2 and 5/1 off odds in two starts, but he drops to the bottom off those special weight runs and is probably going to be an underlay. Poetic Road has not shown anything yet either, but he'll be an appealing price while trying something new in a bad race.
Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 Radiant Rebel We'll see if she's fast enough to beat #8 Betonya to the front, but she isn't meeting a ton of pace otherwise and should be in a really good spot near the top from the start. Think she'll graduate with these. #6 Steal Me Over Considered her on top coming off the even effort last out, as something similar might play OK in a spot without a ton of staying form. Gets past some of them late? #5 American Chick She rallied well enough in the debut try before turning in the clunker last out, but she might be a decent enough fit at the local level and could be along late for a share. Race Summary Suppose Betonya has a chance to wire these if she beats the top choice to the punch and gets to relax, but I think the rail runner will be tough in here while cutting the tag in half and trying this level for the first time.
Picks Notes #11 Cheeky Gal She graduated first time out on the dirt, but her main-track form is otherwise pretty underwhelming. She probably has some built-in class excuses in a couple of those duds, and her only turf sprint was actually pretty solid. Spy and pounce from the outside? Maybe not at 12/1. #5 Foxxy Cleopatra She's back fresh after posting a solid Presque Isle debut score. She was 4/5 that day going going 4 1/2 furlongs, so there are probably some questions to answer, but she'll return with a pretty lengthy worktab for a barn that has won a lot of races like this over the years. #1 Fleet Frost Had to be a huge thrill for her (few) backers last time out, as she was a sure thing from the eighth pole home while paying $94. The runner up that day was back to win, flattering her score. Race Summary Watch the board on Cheeky Gal -- I'm honestly not sure what kind of price to expect, but I wouldn't be shocked if she took a little cash from folks who, like me, are hoping she runs back to the one turf try.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes #2 SEAFARER (6-1) Awakened on the grass and on the class drop in a ‘key’ route race. #3 CHILLING FACTOR (6-1) Earned her top fig while outrun versus better, back with own kind. #7 MYA C (3-1) Responded to aggressive tactics with front-end romp, gets in light-weighted. Race Summary SEAFARER sustained a 4-wide bid on the turn to win going away in her first try on the turf. She kept safe a pair of late-running 5-to-2 shots who both came back to win at the same level. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-7 exacta box.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes #6 INDIO MARA (2-1) Got makeover, survived duel, visually impressive long-sprint score. #2 BAHAMIAN NATIVE (8-1) Chased the fave, took over in the stretch in first try on dirt. #7 ROCKET DRAGON (6-5) Sped off with back-to-back wins as the favorite, gets Lasix. Race Summary INDIO MARA got blinkers and Lasix, rushed up the rail to set fast fractions, put away a 2-to-1 first-time starter as the top pair separated from the field and capped his maiden victory in style. His speed will be tested in this spot but the cutback to a short sprint helps the repeat effort. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #4 BEAR HUNT (9-5) Can’t go beyond after much-improved second-out try at this distance. #2 MOTSKARI (2-1) Steady work tab for return from six-month layoff, runs for cheapest tag yet. #6 SKYLANE (7-2) Pressed pace on the lawn, gets plenty of pace to make a run at today. Race Summary BEAR HUNT handled the stretch-out in distance well after spotting the field several lengths at the start. He tugged his way into a ground-saving stalking trip off the dueling leaders, swung widest in the stretch and finished well. He gets Lasix on the class drop and is today’s Best Bet.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE
Camarero - Race 3 Claiming $27,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $9,200 • Post: 3:35P FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 23 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 23 ALLOWED 7 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $27,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ALWAY'S COMERIO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALWAY'S COMERIO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SEAWAR D: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WEST LOVE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALWAY'S COMERIO SEAWARD WEST LOVE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureUPTOWN AMANDA Front-runner CHICA RABIOSA Front-runner ALWAY'S COMERIO Alternator/Stalker SEAWARD Alternator/Stalker WEST LOVE Trailer ETHICAL LADY Trailer
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn NationalPURCHASE
Penn National - Race 7 Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 43 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 8:55P (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. WARRIOR AT BAT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WARRIOR AT BAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse. TWENTYEIGHTTOTHREE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WORK FROM HOME: Today is a sprint and the horse is carry ing at least 120 lbs. WARRIOR AT BAT TWENTYEIGHTTOTHREE WORK FROM HOME
Line
Class
Speed
FigureWARRIOR AT BAT Alternator/Front-runner HYPER INFLATION Alternator/Stalker WORK FROM HOME Alternator/Stalker TWENTYEIGHTTOTHREE Alternator/Stalker A B C YA Alternator/Stalker SUPER ROCKY Alternator/Non-contender PUTT Alternator/Non-contender BAG OF GOLD Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - SA - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 85
FOR ARKANSAS BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 23, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 23, 2023 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 23,
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 HISSY MISSY 3/1
# 6 HOT SPRINGS BLING 12/1
# 2 SULWE 5/2
I give my vote to HISSY MISSY here. Is difficult not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been quite good - 73 avg - of late. Going in a dirt route race gives this mare a very good shot. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 80 - of her last contest. HOT SPRINGS BLING - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. SULWE - Her earnings per start in dirt route races alone makes you take a look at her. Has a sharp shot in this competition if you like back class.
Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,800 Class Rating: 47
Rating:
#7 RED DELICIOUS (ML=4/1)
#9 SK'S HEART (ML=15/1)
RED DELICIOUS - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the ability to make her presence felt. You have to be keen on that last race fig, 47, which is the top last race fig of this group. SK'S HEART - Rodriguez comes to saddle up after getting to know the filly in the last affair. This filly should be at the fitness peak, this far into her form cycle. Off the board finish last time out at Charles Town was better than it looked on paper. She improved position down the lane and never gave up.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AZTECA GIRL (ML=5/2), #6 EVERYDAYISAGIFT (ML=7/2), #10 NOBLE OBSESSION (ML=8/1),
AZTECA GIRL - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a sprint clash to be any kind of value at low odds in a sprint. EVERYDAYISAGIFT - Hard to put any money on this filly on the win end. Likes to finish in the money though. NOBLE OBSESSION - Registered a substandard speed fig last time out in a Maiden Special race on February 14th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RED DELICIOUS - My historical data says you can ignore the last race at Mountaineer Park. Contested on a track listed as good, this filly obviously didn't take to the going.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #7 RED DELICIOUS to win. Have to have odds of at least 8/5 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: Box [7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Fair Grounds - Race #2 - Post: 1:15pm - Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $59,000 Class Rating: 86
Rating:
#6 SIXTH ANNIVERSARY (ML=4/1)
SIXTH ANNIVERSARY - This event sets up for this filly. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, she'll be in perfect position. This filly is in fine condition, having run a strong race on Jan 25th, finishing fourth. Last time around the track, finished fourth in the slop at Fair Grounds. I'd expect a better race in this field. This one is not the M/L favorite, yet she finished ahead of today's chalk in their last race together.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MONEY WELL SPENT (ML=5/2), #3 GRACELEADSUSHOME (ML=7/2), #1 FORT POLK (ML=9/2),
MONEY WELL SPENT - Not likely for this one to do much running with no recent good showings in a short distance affair. The finish of sixth in the last race shows me that this horse may be losing physical conditioning. Finished sixth in her most recent race with a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. GRACELEADSUSHOME - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent outings. This mare earned a fig in her last race which likely isn't good enough today. FORT POLK - Hard to recommend any horse with deteriorating speed figures of 86/74/61. Doubtful for this thoroughbred to make a winning move with no success lately in a short distance contest.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #6 SIXTH ANNIVERSARY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Hour Wagers
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $67000 Class Rating: 92
SA-R8 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 7 DIAMONDS DANZING 10/1
# 1 UNCONTROLLABLE 3/1
# 4 ELTONSINGSANOTHER 3/1
My choice for this race is DIAMONDS DANZING and is a respectable value bet given the line at 10/1. Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Is a solid contender - given the 93 speed figure from her most recent race. Has to be considered against this field displaying respectable figs recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 81 under similar conditions. UNCONTROLLABLE - Difficult to pass on this filly with Hernandez in the irons. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept. ELTONSINGSANOTHER - Fresu should be able to get this filly to break out quickly in this event. Could beat this field given the 88 Equibase Speed Figure put up in her last outing.
Cat Burglar's Picks - 2/23/2024
Overall record: 97-83-2
Yesterday: 2-0
UW GB ML
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