Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!
NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football
College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football
Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball
College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball
NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball
NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey
$25K Exacta-Thon Picks for Oaklawn | Saturday
February 21, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The $25,000 Exacta-Thon from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet on Saturday at Oaklawn Park gives the kind of boost every horseplayer should love. Hit exactas … win more money than other players. It’s that simple.
As you play Saturday’s 12-race card that features the Rebel, Razorback and Honeybee Stakes, give extra consideration to exacta bets. That’s because players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet who cash any exacta combination in at least 6 of the 12 Oaklawn races on Saturday will share in an additional $20,000 in free cash. The player(s) who hit the most exactas on the day will be rewarded with their share of an additional $5,000.
Sound too good to be true? Last week’s $25,000 late pick five Hit & Split at Fair Grounds saw 11 players on our platforms bag more than $2,200 each in addition to their parimutuel winnings.
Barring scratches, I’ve got $56 worth of exactas spread out over the 12-race program to attack – some that could elicit big returns, others that could help hit the Exacta-Thon’s 6-win threshold.
Oaklawn // Race 1
Notable: You won’t see a horse get much worse of a trip than #6 Footprint got in a tough allowance on January 28 – and still missed by only a head to two runners coming back in today’s Rebel Stakes. Use him to split the two favorites who look logical.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-box 6 with 4,7 ($4 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 2
Notable: Horses at Oaklawn missed 11 days of training due to weather in January, so I give extra credit to a few here coming out of races on February 3 as they’ve had a chance to gather more fitness in a shorter amount of time than the others. #5 Run Jalen Run, #7 Excitable Boy and #9 Daily Grind are that trio ... and two of them are double-digit odds in the morning line.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 5-7-9 ($6 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 3
Notable: Not every race entices a horseplayer to get cute. This one looks straightforward with #3 Motown Dynamic and #7 Cruise Missile as standout favorites. Not the kind of exacta I’m betting on a normal day, but for Exacta-Thon purposes, this might be an easy pickup for 1 of your 6 races needed.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 3-7 ($2 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 4
Notable: On a fast track, #2 Gunflash could bounce back with a much-improved effort. If it comes up wet on Saturday, you’re on your own in this race. He’s the key for me along with a couple of horses with strong career records of landing on the exacta ticket, #10 WW Scout’s Honor (64%) and #11 Favorite Outlaw (69%).
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-Box 2 with 10,11 ($4 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 5
Notable: Excited to tackle this race with two prices, #3 Tap the Champagne (10-1 ML) and #10 Who’s Ticket (15-1 ML). Both stretch out from sprint to route and have classy pedigrees and hints of ability. Get one of these on top and we’re looking at a chance to score nicely with #11 My Favorite Girl running late and #8 Enigmatic getting a slightly better post draw than she’s been accustomed.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 3,10 with 3,10,11,8 ($6 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 6
Notable: #4 Mr. Keating is well-drawn for his two sprints and then a route form cycle, one of the favorite handicapping angles of my podcast partner Jeff Siegel. At 8-1 morning line, he’s not only a good win bet, but the key to my exactas in this mile.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 4 with 8,6 ($2 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 7
Notable: Field of 12 shows just 10 combined career starts among these maidens, but even so it’s rare to see debut horses run 1-2. First-time starters #10 Snow Flurry and #11 Queen Mallard have shown morning promise for capable barns, though the former’s trainer is more apt to win at first asking than the latter. #3 Linnie Mae and #4 Haulin Ice ran decent races first time out and make sense in a race that I’m not keen on trusting. Let’s try rookies over experience and see what happens.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 10,11 over 3,4 ($4 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 8 // Carousel
Notable: From a pace standpoint, I expect this 6-furlong sprint to fly early and give a late-runner the best chance to win. #8 Zeitlos not only is the morning line favorite, but also gets the perfect set-up in front of her. The best horse with the right setup rarely gives back the advantage. Looking for #7 Mucho Macho Girl to get tied up in the pace tussle and perhaps fade out of the exacta to boost the payoff.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 8 with 9,2,3 ($3 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 9 // Honeybee Stakes
Notable: Heavily favored #6 West Omaha should be extremely hard to beat in this spot. #2 Band of Gold and #1 Alys Beach are the logical contenders behind her, but I’m looking at #7 Lemon Muffin (30-1 ML) as a longshot to consider for the exactas. She’s run second in four straight maiden races in sprints and stretches out off of a series of bullet workouts. Let’s see what she’s got at a price. On a typical day, I’d play heavily 6-7 and bypass the shorter prices, but for the Exacta-Thon, the other combinations appear worth the extra $2 total to get you perhaps over the hump and into the bonus money.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 6 with 7,2,1 ($3 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 10 // Razorback Stakes
Notable: One of the toughest races and best betting chances anywhere in America on Saturday, this field of 13 has many possible twists. I’ll use 6 of them in all in various combinations, but keyed around only #8 Magic Tap, my top choice shortening in distance and #11 Notary, who is in absolute peak form. Magic Tap is my preferred of the pair, and as written up in the Race of the Week commentary, I’ll be playing a larger ticket with that one in the first spot; and a smaller ticket with Notary in the first spot.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 8,11 with 8,11,9,13,1,5 ($10 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 11 // Rebel Stakes
Notable: Longshot play #9 Lagynos comes in fresher than those from the Southwest Stakes just 3 weeks ago and I’m rolling the dice that heavy favorite #7 Timberlake will offer poor value having never won around 2 turns. Definitely want to get win money on any horse that you like in any race at a big price like Lagynos, but in terms of the Exacta-Thon, I’ll spread with several chances if he runs first or second.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-Box 9 with 6,11,13,7,1 ($10 for $1)
Oaklawn // Race 12
Notable: #7 Crushed It is going to be a big favorite, but note he’s run second at 6-5 and 4-5 odds in his 2 starts. The preferred play is #2 Give Me a Reason, a regally bred colt with a great post draw and adding Lasix. I don’t see a lot of value in this race, but the favored pair are the way to go in the promotion.
JP’s Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 2-7 ($2 for $1)
Jon White: A New Kentucky Derby No. 1, Plus Rebel Stakes Picks
February 21, 2024 | By Jon White
There is a new No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. Fierceness is relinquishing that position this week.
I wrote this last week: “I’m thinking that there is a good chance whoever wins the Risen Star will take over the top spot next week.”
Inasmuch as it was Sierra Leone who won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star last Saturday (Feb. 17), he’s the new No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week, right?
Wrong.
Look, I give Sierra Leone a lot of credit for his Risen Star victory. First of all, he won a 1 1/8-mile race while returning from a layoff. He was making his first start since Dec. 2. Second, it was just his third career start. Third, it’s not easy to win a race when rallying from far back when the pace isn’t fast, as was the case in the Risen Star. And fourth, he prevailed despite running on a sloppy track that was pretty much a mess.
It certainly appears to me that Sierra Leone will appreciate going a furlong longer in the 150th running of $5 million Kentucky Derby on May 4.
I think Sierra Leone is a very good colt. But is he a potential superstar? Maybe he is. But at this point, I’d say probably not.
Right now, the one 3-year-old in this country who has the look of a budding superstar to me is Nysos, who has won all three of his career starts by a combined 26 3/4 lengths. In his 2024 debut, Nysos was scintillating. He won Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths on Feb. 3.
If Nysos were eligible for the Kentuckyj Derby, he would definitely be No. 1 on my Top 10. But he is not eligible.
Nysos is ranked No. 1 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll. I’m one of the 28 voters who put him in the top spot in the poll. Sierra Leone received four first-place votes.
If I put Sierra Leone at No. 1 on my NTRA ballot this week, then why isn’t he No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10? Good question.
My NTRA votes from 1 to 10 are based primarily on what a horse has accomplished. I put Sierra Leone at No. 1 on my ballot because I think he deserves it after winning the Risen Star, which arguably attracted the strongest field in any graded stakes race for 3-year-olds so far in 2024.
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 is a ranking of how I currently see a horse’s chances of winning that particular race. In other words, if the Kentucky Derby were held this week, the horse I rank No 1 is the one I feel has the best chance at this moment in time of winning the roses, while No. 2 has the next-best chance, and so on.
It’s understandable that Sierra Leone is going to top many Kentucky Derby lists following his win in the Risen Star.
Heck, I very nearly put Sierra Leone at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. But I didn’t.
If it’s not Sierra Leone, then who is the new No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10?
After giving it considerable thought, I have put Japan’s Forever Young in the top spot this week. That’s because as of right now, he is my choice to win the Kentucky Derby.
I wrote last week: “How good is Forever Young? I think he might be as good as, or possibly better than, Derma Sotogake, who as a 3-year-old last year finished second to White Abarrio in the Grade I BC Classic.”
Forever Young was three for three last year in Japan. I think the Real Steel colt is a potential superstar. Evidently I’m not the only one who believes this.
“Is Forever Young the next superstar for [trainer] Yoshito Yahagi?” Naohiro Goda wrote in a report from Japan posted this past Sunday on BloodHorse.com. “The 3-year-old should give us the answer to this question at Riyadh Feb. 24, when he tries to extend his unbeaten record to four in the Grade III Saudi Derby at Riyadh.”
I think any Japanese racehorse being talked about as being a possible superstar should command considerable respect. That’s because of the tremendous success Japanese horses have exhibited in recent years when competing on the world stage.
Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote this week: “Even as Japanese racehorses have ascended over the last decade, becoming the most powerful force in international competition, the race the Japanese most covet, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, has eluded them. In fact, a Japanese horse easily could win a Kentucky Derby before one wins an Arc. It could happen as soon as this year.
“Forever Young at this early stage of his career looks as strong as any Japanese 3-year-old with designs on the Derby. He has won all three of his starts in Japan, won them smashingly, and gets his first real class test Saturday at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Saudi Arabia.”
How much of a force have the Japanese become in Thoroughbred racing? One need not look past the exploits of Japan’s Equinox, a fantastic equine athlete widely regarded as the best racehorse on the planet last year.
Why am I so bullish on Forever Young as a colt capable of winning the Kentucky Derby? One reason is the distance of his three races to date.
As a 2-year-old in Japan, Forever Young began his racing career with a four-length victory in a maiden race at about 1 1/8 miles. You read that right -- about 1 1/8 miles! In other words, much stamina was required on the part of Forever Young right off the bat.
In his next start, Forever Young won his stakes debut by 1 1/2 lengths in a race at the same distance of about 1 1/8 miles.
In his final race at 2, Forever Young crushed 11 foes when he won the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun by seven lengths at about one mile on Dec. 13. Now he will try to remain undefeated by adding the $1.5 million Saudi Derby to his list of victories.
“Last year’s Zen-Nippn Nisai Yushan winner, Derma Sotogake, went on to capture the Group II UAE Derby in Dubai before finishing sixth in the Grade I Kentucky Derby,” Goda wrote. “The connections of Forever Young have expressed interest in running their colt in the March 30 UAE Derby after the Saudi Derby with the hope of securing enough points to make the 2024 Kentucky Derby field.”
The DRF’s Hersh confirmed this week that Yahagi has the Kentucky Derby as an objective for Forever Young.
“If he can run well in Saudi and then in Dubai, which qualifies him for the Kentucky Derby, then yes, I would like to send him to America to compete in the Triple Crown races,” Yahagi said when answering written questions from Daily Racing Form through an interpreter.
Forever Young was being quoted as an odds-on Saudi Derby favorite at 4-5 in England this week by William Hill and most other betting shops. America’s Book’em Danno, who is four for five and won Tampa Bay Downs’ Pasco Stakes by 12 1/2 lengths on Jan. 13, was listed as a 7-1 second choice by William Hill.
As yet another indication of how Japanese horses should be taken very seriously nowadays, Mandarin Hero came over from Japan for last year’s Grade I Santa Anita Derby and lost by a scant nose when finishing second to a very good colt in Practical Move. Though Mandarin Hero could finish no better than 12th in the Kentucky Derby, I believe there is a very good chance that Forever Young is a considerably better horse than last year’s Santa Anita Derby runner-up.
There were many on the Derma Sotogake bandwagon in last year’s Kentucky Derby after his 5 1/2-length victory in the UAE Derby, but he ran sixth in the Churchill Downs classic. However, I think it’s fair to say Derma Sotogake later showed everyone that he is a top-drawer racehorse with his splendid runner-up effort to the older White Abarrio in the BC Classic.
Derma Sotogake is scheduled to have a rematch with White Abarrio this Saturday in the $20 million Saudi Cup. Derma Sotogake is still supposed to run despite suffering an injury to his right eye during his trip from Japan to Saudi Arabia, the Racing Post reported.
Another Saudi Cup contender is Grade I Pegasus World Cup winner National Treasure.
Post positions for the Saudi Cup were determined Wednesday. White Abarrio drew the rail in the field of 14. National Treasure got post No. 7, while Derma Sotogake drew the 13 spot in the starting gate.
Last year’s Saudi Cup was won by Japan’s Panthalassa. Who trained Panthalassa? It was none other than Forever Young’s trainer.
In addition to Derma Sotogake, Japan is seeking to win this year’s Saudi Cup with Ushba Tesora (last year’s Group I Dubai World Cup winner who finished fifth in the BC Classic) and Japanese champion dirt horse Lemon Pop, plus Crown Pride and Meisho Hario.
Along with White Abarrio and National Treasure, the U.S. is represented in the Saudi Cup by Senor Buscador (seventh in the BC Classic before finishing second in the Pegasus World Cup) and Saudi Crown (recent winner of the Grade III Louisiana Stakes after finishing 10th in the BC Classic).
As yet another example of Japan’s increasingly strong presence internationally, not only did Derma Sotogake win the UAE Derby last year, Japanese horses dominated. Derma Sotogake led a 1-2-3-4 finish by Japanese horses.
Considering Japan’s prowess all over the globe these days, I can’t help thinking it’s only a matter of time before a Japanese horse does win the Kentucky Derby. And I think Forever Young just might be the one to finally do it.
Another Japanese horse eyeing this year’s Kentucky Derby is Ramjet, who won the one-mile Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse last Sunday (Feb. 18). Dismissed at 12-1, he was far back at the top of the stretch and closed with gusto to mow them all down.
Ramjet looks like he’s a good 3-year-old, but it appears to me that Forever Young might be a special colt.
If Forever Young shows up in the Kentucky Derby with an unblemished record, you can bet there will be lots of people on his bandwagon, a la Derma Sotogake last year. Adding to Forever Young’s chances to win the Run for the Roses is he wouldn’t have to face Nysos or any other talented 3-year-old trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who has been banned by Churchill Downs Inc. from running horses at any of the tracks it owns.
Baffert sent out Medina Spirit to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby. However, the colt was disqualified after he tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day. Following Medina Spirit’s DQ, Churchill Downs banned Baffert from participating at any of its tracks in 2022 and 2023. The suspension was then extended through 2024.
As I wrote recently, Churchill Downs’ original two-year suspension of Baffert was, in my view, a whole lot more than a slap on the wrist. It was a severe penalty. Insofar as I’m not aware of Baffert having a single medication violation anywhere during 2022 and 2023, I feel that Churchill’s decision to extend the trainer’s ban through 2024 was grossly unfair.
In any case, what about this as a possibility? An undefeated Forever Young wins the Kentucky Derby and then has a showdown with an undefeated Nysos in the Preakness Stakes. What a Preakness that would be!
By the way, I consider Forever Young’s trainer to be a huge plus in terms of a possible Kentucky Derby appearance and triumph. Clearly, Yahagi is a great -- I repeat, great -- horseman. A noted earlier, he won last year’s Saudi Cup with Panthalassa. It was quite a feat on Yahagi’s part to have won the world’s richest race with a horse racing on the dirt for the first time.
What Yahagi achieved during the Breeders’ Cup was nothing less than extraordinary. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.
Loves Only You then closed out her career by defeating males to win the Group I Hong Kong Cup.
Deep Impact, Loves Only You’s sire, won 12 of 14 lifetime starts, earned $7,806,474 and swept the 2005 Japanese Triple Crown.
Forever Young is a grandson of Deep Impact.
Deep Impact’s sire, Sunday Silence, won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in 1989 before having his attempt at Triple Crown glory thwarted when he ran second to Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes. And then, with the 1989 Horse of the Year title on the line, Sunday Silence won a Breeders’ Cup Classic for the ages by a neck over Easy Goer.
And so Forever Young not only debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week, he does so at No. 1.
Maybe Forever Young will go out there and get beat in the Saudi Derby. What then for my Kentucky Derby Top 10? That’s easy. If Forever Young has his bubble of invincibility burst in Saturday’s Saudi Derby, I’ll just put someone else in the top spot on my Top 10 next week. But the feeling here is I won’t have to do that.
Meanwhile, Sierra Leone, who was ranked No. 5 last week, moves up to No. 2 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.
Dornach, No. 6 last week, is No. 3 this week. He is a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. Don’t forget, when Dornach won Aqueduct’s Grade II Remsen Stakes, he did nose out future Risen Star winner Sierra Leone.
Fierceness, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male who finished third as a 1-5 favorite when making his 2024 debut in Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes, tumbles to No. 4 this week after being No. 1 last week.
Track Phantom, who acquitted himself well to finish second in the Risen Star, moves up to No. 5 this week after being No. 8 last week.
Exiting the Top 10 this week is Hall of Fame, who finished seventh in the Risen Star.
Below is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week:
1. Forever Young
2. Sierra Leone
3. Dornoch
4. Fierceness
5. Track Phantom
6. Hades
7. Mystik Dan
8. Locked
9. Timberlake
10. Born Noble
Bubbling Under My Top 10: Catching Freedom, Conquest Warrior, Drip, Domestic Product, El Grande O, Epic Ride, Hall of Fame, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Just Steel, Liberal Arts, Lightline, Nash, No More Time, Ramjet, Real Macho, Resilience, Scatify, Snead, Speak Easy, Stretch Ride, Stronghold, The Wine Steward, Tuscan Gold, Tuscan Sky, Uncle Heavy and Victory Avenue.
REBEL STAKES SELECTIONS
Timberlake, winner of last year’ Grade I Champagne Stakes, heads a field of 13 entered in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes, which will be contested at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (Feb. 24).
I’ll try to put this as kindly as I can. It appears that Timberlake’s opposition is not particularly strong, especially considering this race has a purse of $1.25 million.
Muth, runner-up in the BC Juvenile and winner of this year’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes, is glaringly absent after having been listed among the expected entrants. Trainer Bob Baffert decided to keep Muth home at Santa Anita rather than ship him to Arkansas for the Rebel.
This year’s Rebel is a race that does not call for considerable analysis. On paper, even though Timberlake hasn’t raced since finishing fourth in the BC Juvenile, he is a standout. Quite simply, it’s his race to lose. Appropriately, he is a short price on the morning line.
Below are my Rebel Stakes selections:
1. Timberlake (6-5 morning-line favorite)
2. Just Steel (7-2)
3. Dimatic (8-1)
4. Northern Flame (5-1)
I will say that while I didn’t pick Carbone first, second, third or fourth, I do think he might be worth putting a few dollars on. He’s 15-1 on the morning line.
Yes, Carbone finished seventh in the Grade III Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on a muddy track Feb. 3. But keep in mind he was the 9-5 favorite in the Southwest after winning the first two starts of his career by eight and four lengths.
After Carbone got beat by nearly 22 lengths in the Southwest, he goes from being a 9-5 favorite to 15-1 on the morning line. I wouldn’t bet him in the Rebel at low odds. But I am willing to make a smallish wager on him at around 15-1.
As I’ve said it many times, don’t judge a horse too harshly for one bad race.
SIERRA LEONE INDIVIDUAL FAVORITE IN FUTURE WAGERING
In the wake of his victory in the Risen Star Stakes, Sierra Leone was the 6-1 favorite among 39 individual horses in Pool 4 of Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) when betting closed last Sunday (Feb 18).
The “all other 3-year-olds” option ended up being the actual 5-1 favorite. Interestingly, this option closed as the 2-1 favorite last year in Pool 4 when Forte was the 8-1 favorite among the 39 individual horses.
Mage closed at 48-1 in Pool 4 last year. He went on to win the Kentucky Derby at odds of 15-1 on race day.
It was in Pool 4 last year that I put $200 on Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity winner Practical Move.
“I was not about to miss the boat with Practical Move at a mouth-watering 83-1 in Pool 4, especially after he fired a bullet five-furlong workout in :59.00 at Santa Anita last Saturday,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com.
At the time of my Practical Move future wager, he had not made his 2023 debut yet. It looked like an extremely shrewd bet at 83-1 when Practical Move went on to win Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes and Grade I Santa Anita Derby.
I had $200 at 83-1 on a horse eventually listed at 10-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line. If Practical Move had won the roses, I would have made nearly $17,000. Talk about value.
But Practical Move didn’t make it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. He was scratched due to an elevated temperature, according to trainer Tim Yakteen. Talk about disappointment.
It turned out that I was more involved with this year’s Pool 4 than I had expected.
I put money on Forever Young at 21-1, Mystik Dan also at 21-1, Tuscan Sky at 31-1, Hades at 32-1, Tuscan Gold at 92-1 and Capital Idea at 131-1. Even though I had played Born Noble previously, when I saw him at such a big price, I decided to put more money on him at 79-1.
Tuscan Sky, trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, is two for two. He won a six-furlong maiden sprint by a widening 5 1/4 lengths when debuting on a muddy track Jan. 13 at Aqueduct. He recorded an 89 Beyer Speed Figure.
Last Saturday on a sloppy strip, Tuscan Sky splashed home to a two-length win in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on the Risen Star undercard. The colt by 2019 BC Classic victor Vino Rosso came away from that performance with a 95 Beyer, while Sierra Leone recorded a 90 Beyer for his Risen Star win later in the day.
Tuscan Gold, who like Sierra Leone is conditioned by Chad Brown, launched his racing career with a fourth in a one-mile maiden contest at Aqueduct on Nov. 4. The winner of that race was Sierra Leone.
In his only other start thus far, Tuscan Gold rolled to a 6 1/4-length win in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Gulfstream on Jan. 31.
I love having money on Capital Idea at 131-1. I regard it as being similar to the mouth-watering price I got on Practical Move in Pool 4 last year.
In his first career start, Capital Idea finished third in a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct on Dec. 31. The Classic Empire colt subsequently won by 8 1/4 lengths when competing at one mile on a sloppy surface Jan. 28 at the Big A.
After recording a 69 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut, Capital Idea improved to an 84 in his maiden graduation.
What I find so interesting about Capital Idea are his Thoro-Graph numbers.
While I consider Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior to the Beyers. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
For Capital Idea’s first race, he was assigned a 10 1/4 Thoro-Graph number. He then registered an excellent 2 3/4 in his maiden score. The 2 3/4 figure stacks up quite well against other members of his class. For instance, when Sierra Leone finished second in the Remsen, his Thoro-Graph fig was 4. And that 4 was a much better Thoro-Graph number than Remsen winner Dornach’s 6 for that race.
Capital Idea’s 2 3/4 Thoro-Graph number compares favorably to Timberlake, who is expected to be a strong favorite in this Saturday’s Rebel Stakes. Timberlake recorded a 2 when he won the Grade I Champagne Stakes, then matched that number when fourth in the BC Juvenile.
Timberlake closed at 15-1 in KDFW Pool 4, which makes Capital Idea’s price of 131-1 look so enticing to me.
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs for Pool 4 of the 2024 KDFW:
5-1 All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings
6-1 Sierra Leone
9-1 Dornoch
15-1 Timberlake
16-1 Fierceness
16-1 Locked
20-1 Track Phantom
21-1 Forever Young
21-1 Mystik Dan
23-1 Knightsbridge
27-1 Just Touch
29-1 Conquest Warrior
31-1 Catching Freedom
31-1 Tuscan Sky
32-1 Hades
33-1 Hall of Fame
36-1 Honor Marie
37-1 Agate Road
41-1 Speak Easy
57-1 Imperial Gun
57-1 Liberal Arts
69-1 Nash
72-1 Uncle Heavy
79-1 Born Noble
79-1 Just Steel
80-1 Domestic Product
83-1 Resilience
92-1 Tuscan Gold
93-1 Deterministic
99-1 Stronghold
105-1 Epic Ride
120-1 Dimatic
121-1 Amante Bianco
131-1 Capital Idea
131-1 Lucky Jeremy
148-1 No More Time
171-1 Real Men Violin
207-1 West Saratoga
220-1 El Grande O
428-1 Lat Long
Two more KDFW pools will be conducted this year: March 15-17 (Pool 5) and April 4-6 (Pool 6). The lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will coincide with KDFW Pool 5.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Four horses on the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll are entered in the $20 million Saudi Cup this Saturday. They are National Treasure (No. 1), White Abarrio (No. 2), Senor Buscador (tied for No. 3) and Saudi Crown (No. 5).
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 299 National Treasure (19)
2. 260 White Abarrio (10)
3. 187 Idiomatic (2)
3. 187 Senior Buscador
5. 177 Saudi Crown
6. 109 Newgrange
7. 87 Warm Heart
8. 85 Didia
9. 64 Speed Boat Beach
10. 41 Arabian Knight
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
After winning the Risen Star Stakes last Saturday, Sierra Leone climbs all the way up to No. 2 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll after being No. 9 last week. Undefeated Nysos maintains his hold on the top spot.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 316 Nysos (28)
2. 280 Sierra Leone (4)
3. 169 Track Phantom
4. 157 Muth
5. 145 Fierceness
6. 131 Hades
7. 116 Locked
8. 104 Mystik Dan
9. 95 Dornoch
10. 37 Maymun
Race of the Week: $600K Razorback at Oaklawn | Saturday
February 21, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The $600,000 purse of the Razorback Handicap catches the eye, but you quickly learn when scanning the past performances that these are not horses worthy of the lofty pot. But as you get through the 13 of them entered, you realize this could be the best betting race of the weekend anywhere in the US at any level. Some races are fun to watch, but give me the great gamble any day of the week.
The Razorback is part of a big card that includes a fantastic Exacta-Thon promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. On Oaklawn's 12-race Rebel Day card, hit 6 exactas in 6 or more races and claim your share of $20,000 in bonus money amongst other players on those two platforms who also nail the required number of bets. Plus, the player who hits the exacta on the most races on the card wins $5,000.
Field Depth:
PROMISE KEEPER's Grade 3 Peter Pan win is the field's signature score, but that came in 2021. Grade 3-placed runners here include SPEED BIAS, AIN'T LIFE GRAND, OCTANE, and MIDNIGHT RISING. There's no decided class edge among these, though PROMISE KEEPER has kept the slightly best company lines over time.
Pace:
FROSTED DEPARTURE and SPEED BIAS have early foot from inner post positions and should be sent along with OCTANE and U.S. ARMY in the fray. PROMISE KEEPER is pace-versatile but can also show speed. Look for a pretty quick tempo over the 1-1/16 miles.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes. (COMING SOON)
#1-SEIZE THE NIGHT: Runner-up in the Fifth Season as the 2-1 favorite, he'll hope for drier conditions than his last 2 starts on wet tracks. Note all 4 career wins have come on fast dirt. Leading jockey Cristian Torres gets to save ground and try to rally late.
#2-FROSTED DEPARTURE: Won the local Renaissance Stakes in 2022 sprinting and wired an allowance field in December here at the Razorback trip. Expect Ramon Vazquez to put him into the race from the outset and see where chips fall for inconsistent sort who has been out of the money in 6 of his last 10 tries.
#3-SPEED BIAS: Last year's Pimlico Special runner-up by a nose and Keeneland's Fayette third-place finisher by a neck, he's teased at top levels with his front-running style. Tends to settle for the minor awards even when favored (0-4 as chalk in last 9 attempts).
#4-AIN'T LIFE GRAND: Away since a third-place effort in the Grade 3 Cornhusker in July, he ran poorly at Oaklawn last March off a similar, long layoff. Stakes winner locally over this same distance, so it's all about his readiness for trainer Kelly Von Hemel. He's trained consistently with some fast flashes in the a.m.
#5-OCTANE: Gulfstream-based Florida-bred makes a shrewd road trip to battle for $600K against a soft cast for that kind of cash. Beaten favorite in the Sunshine Classic last out has to extend a longer stretch run here than he's had at Gulfstream, where similar races end at the sixteenth-pole finish line. He'll make them earn it from near the front given his 17: 7-4-1 record.
#6-MIDNIGHT RISING: Career turf/synthetic performer took the dirt for the first time Jan. 6 at Oaklawn and scored a 15-1 upset over a muddy track. Ran respectably in stakes company at Woodbine and Turfway and likely fits on class with these. Expect a midpack bid.
#7-U.S. ARMY: He's had the early lead in 5 of his last 6 starts, including a wire-to-wire stakes win at Remington Park. But he backed up at Oaklawn in his local unveiling Jan. 26 in allowance company as the 5-2 favorite, finishing third to Razorback rivals Notary and Escapologist. Distance the question for speedster.
#8-MAGIC TAP: Half-brother to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter American Gal has been a stayer of note, cutting back in distance Saturday after 5 consecutive races over 9 furlongs. Fourth in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby when chasing tough Saudi Crown, one of the key players in the $20 million Saudi Cup on Saturday morning (US time). Tyler Gaffalione comes in to ride, reuniting with the Steve Asmussen contender.
#9-O P FIRECRACKER: Late-running third in a pair of allowance races at the current meet, son of local standout Will Take Charge steps up into the stakes ranks. Rallied just behind Magic Tap here Jan. 13 over 1-1/8 miles, but both of his wins have come at the Razorback distance.
#10-PROMISE KEEPER: The 2021 Peter Pan winner was claimed for $80,000 in September and notched his first victory in more than 2-1/2 years when immediately moving to the Robertino Diodoro barn last out. Led every step of the Fifth Season with the rail draw and small field size; this test promises to be deeper and tougher from a wide draw, while his 7-1 price that day likely shrinks after a fast speed figure.
#11-NOTARY: High-percentage trainer Armando Hernandez and owner Antonio Donato went in for a $50,000 claim in July and this Street Sense colt has since rattled off 3 wins and a runner-up from 5 starts. Smoked allowance runners locally on Jan. 26 by 5 widening lengths, including Razorback returnees Escapologist and U.S. Army. In career form.
#12-ESCAPOLOGIST: Deep closer was a no-match second to Notary in their Jan. 26 allowance matchup over a muddy track. Kenny McPeek colt has 5 straight finishes in the money in allowance and claiming races and takes a step up in class. From difficult post, he'll likely drop far back to avoid ground loss. Brian Hernandez Jr. comes in from Fair Grounds to reunite, while regular rider Julien Leparoux opts for Octane.
#13-BOLZY: Recent allowance winner has been off the board in 5 of 7 career starts and has yet to make a stakes bid at age 5. Fantastic pedigree hasn't panned out, by Gun Runner and out of the one of the greatest Oklahoma-bred stakes winners of all-time, She's All In. Earned a huge speed figure last out in a career-best, and has followed up with a Feb. 17 bullet workout in 47-3/5 for a half-mile, so maybe the lightbulb finally switched on. Wretched post, but intrigues some.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No locks in this spot, but the edge goes to MAGIC TAP, who has had 6 straight superfecta finishes.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BOLZY's last was really good and he has a license to be a stakes horse for a trainer, Donnie Von Hemel, who doesn't just throw one to the wolves. Demand 15-1 or 20-1 from that abysmal post draw, but usable underneath.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Attacking the exactas with the extra Exacta-Thon promotional incentives. $15 exacta part-wheel MAGIC TAP over OP FIRECRACKER, BOLZY, SEIZE THE NIGHT, NOTARY and OCTANE ($75). $5 exacta part-wheel NOTARY over OP FIRECRACKER, BOLZY, SEIZE THE NIGHT, MAGIC TAP and OCTANE ($25).
Jeremy Plonk: Saudi Cup Post Draw Reaction, Betting Info
February 21, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Led by Breeders’ Cup Classic / Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and Preakness / Pegasus World Cup champ National Treasure, a field of 14 (with one alternate) entered today for Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race. The sensational lineup also includes Pegasus World Cup runner-up Senor Buscador, Cigar Mile winner Hoist the Gold, Pennsylvania Derby victor Saudi Crown and the expatriated Hollywood Gold Cup winner Defunded.
With such American influence, attention on the Saudi Cup will be high when wagering is offered on the full, 9-race card from Riyadh Saturday, beginning at 7 am ET. Advance wagering on the full card from Saudi Arabia on Saturday will be available on both 1/ST BET and Xpressbet beginning Friday at 4 pm ET.
Horseplayers betting all of Saturday’s races from Saudi Arabia with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on win bets that finish second or third.
Japan seeks back-to-back Saudi Cup wins after Panthlalassa’s score in the race a year ago, and counters with a lineup that may even be superior to the Americans. Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro, Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Derma Sotogake and Japanese domestic dirt champion horse Lemon Pop are the headline acts. Japan secured 3 of the 6 races for Thoroughbreds on the 2023 Saudi Cup card and 4 of the top 5 placings in the $20 million main event.
The only American horse to win the first four Saudi Cup editions was Maximum Security in the 2020 inaugural when besting countrymate Midnight Bisou. Since, winners have been based in the UK, UAE and Japan.
The 1-1/8 miles distance of the Saudi Cup makes it a more tempo-driven ‘major’ than the 1-1/4 miles dirt showcases that tap stamina, such as the Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic. The track layout at King Abdulaziz Racecourse makes this a one-turn race with a tremendous run into the only turn, nullifying the significance of the post draw in terms of potential ground loss. There’s plenty of time to get position into the bend. Panthalassa won wire-to-wire last year from the rail draw.
The Americans certainly don’t lack for pace with front-running National Treasure, Hoist the Gold and Saudi Crown among the expected early flyers. Defunded comes off an extended layoff and could be fresh early for new connections since moving to the Middle East. He’s drawn just outside Hoist the Gold and National Treasure, who both have top-class speed. Saudi Crown in post 5 is inner-most of those front-runners and could take additional pressure. That group has the potential to hook up and increase the pace tempo. Irad Ortiz Jr. may use a bit more of White Abarrio than usual from a rail draw, but there’s a lot of real estate on the backstretch run.
$20 million Grade 1 Saudi Cup // Saturday // King Abdulaziz Racecourse // Post Time 12:40 pm ET US
** Note ** Betting numbers and post positions do not match. Post positions are listed in parentheses behind the betting numbers for each horse.
1 (14)-Carmel Road (Abdullah Albadah // Camilo Ospina)
2 (6)-Crown Pride (Koichi Shintani // Joao Moreira)
3 (9)-Defunded (Abdulaziz Khalid Mishref // Luis Saez)
4 (13)-Derma Sotogake (Hidetaka Otonashi // Christophe Lemaire)
5 (8)-Hoist the Gold (Dallas Stewart // John Velazquez)
6 (2)-Isolate (Doug Watson // Joel Rosario)
7 (3)-Lemon Pop (Hiroyasu Tanaka // Ryusei Sakai)
8 (12)-Meisho Hario (Inao Okada // Suguru Hamanaka)
9 (7)-National Treasure (Bob Baffert // Flavien Prat)
10 (10)-Power in Numbers (Ahmed Mohamoud // Adel Alfouraidi)
11 (5)-Saudi Crown (Brad Cox // Florent Geroux)
12 (4)-Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher // Junior Alvarado)
13 (11)-Ushba Tesoro (Noboru Takagi // Yuga Kawada)
14 (1)-White Abarrio (Rick Dutrow // Irad Ortiz Jr.)
15 (also-eligible)-Scotland Yard (Mutaeb Almulawah // TBD)
Wagering Details (with takeout):
All Races: $1 Win (17.5%), $1 Place (17.5%), $1 Exacta (19%), 20-cent Trifecta (25%), 10-cent Superfecta (25%)
Races 4-9: 50-cent Pick 6 (25%)
Races 4-6: 50-cent Pick 3 (25%)
Races 7-9: 50-cent Pick 3 (25%)
Races 5-6: $1 Daily Double (25%)
Races 8-9: $1 Daily Double (25%)
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/24/24
February 24, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Saturday, February 24, 2024
RACE 1
5-BANDWAGON
Degree of confidence: B-
• Continued his improving pattern with clever recent maiden win.
• Earned a career top speed figure in his first try over the local lawn.
• Shorter trip is no issue and appears to be the best of the closers.
Others to consider: 7-Miracle Mark; 3-Rastaman Vibe.
RACE 2
2-DANCING DANA
Degree of confidence: B-
• Third in a slightly stronger affair; shortens to a more favorable trip.
• Third start off an extended layoff and should be set for her best try.
• Yet to win in six starts over the local track but lands a very soft spot.
Others to consider: 6-La Paloma Blanca.
RACE 3
3-SNEAKER
Degree of confidence: B
• Excellent second over this course and distance facing similar foes.
• Was more than six lengths clear of the rest and is ready to graduate.
• Projects as the controlling speed in a race that should have soft splits.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 4
6-MR. DREAMCYCLE
Degree of confidence: B+
• Moves up a notch after crushing $25,000 foes while on the pace.
• Earned a career top speed figure and looms very tough right back.
• Lovely outside draw, can pop and go or press and pounce if needed.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 5
5-KINGS RIVER KNIGHT
Degree of confidence: B+
• Multiple state-bred stakes winner faces open allowance company.
• Does his best on the front end but can stalk if the pace dictates.
• Three-for-three) at this one mile trip and loves the Santa Anita lawn.
Others to consider: 1-Cathkin Peak (Ire).
RACE 6
7-APPRECIATE TODAY
Degree of confidence: B
• Was a short horse in debut and weakened late after stalking the pace.
• Likely to be fitter and sharper today and is cozily drawn on the outside.
• Vegas Burner (slow start) was best in the same race our top pick exits.
Others to consider: 6-Vegas Burner.; 2-Duran.
RACE 7
6-LINDA’S GIFT
Degree of confidence: B+
• Never been better (three wins in last five starts) and can score again.
• Was the controlling speed in last pair but can stalk if pace flow requires.
• Lightly raced daughter of Arrogate has room for further improvement.
Others to consider: 5-Khinjani (GB).
RACE 8
4-JUDGE MILLER
Degree of confidence: B+
• Has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern; mile no issue.
• Very fast on speed figures and projects to be the controlling speed.
• Royally bred son of Curlin has a chance to develop into a good one.
Others to consider: 5-Clouseau.
RACE 9
5-VIRAT
Degree of confidence: B+
• Blistering win sprinting on the flat course; tries his luck down the Hill.
• Likes to settle in mid-pack and then blast home; conditions are ideal.
• Been sparingly raced but has hit the board in six of 11 career outings.
Others to consider: 7-Grazed.
RACE 10
2-JOHNNY DRAMA
Degree of confidence: B
• Graduated in game fashion over this course and distance last month.
• Earned a career top figure in victory; nothing more will be needed here.
• Freshened for six weeks but love his work pattern and can step forward.
Others to consider: 9-National Generaux (Ire).
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
February 24, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card set to roll. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
2-My Red Sea (5/2)-Loses Ronnie Wrenn but has a post edge over some stronger foes and Chris Lems can do the job. Has good gate speed, which could make a winning difference, and lead to the 6th straight picture.
7-The Gypsy Queen IR (7/2)-Has been on quite a form spree winning 8 in row and now makes the 1st start for the Keith Kash barn. Has high-end gate speed and should be racing at the top of the stack when the wings fold. Might be dismissed after getting claimed from the Burke stable and will respect chances for another picture.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
2-Gianna Grace (7-1)-Looks like a player at a solid price if avoids a sleepy start. Will look for Billy Davis Jr to light a fire, leave from this post and be in play from start to finish.
4-Male Man (6-1)-Camera shy 6-year-old gets the service of Ronnie Wrenn for the 2nd straight race. Should be a price in a field without much form and could benefit from an efficient trip.
7-Ellianna R (6-1)-Has been racing well, fits and could surprise at a solid price. If Hunter Myers can leave, land on top or in the 2-hole, chances for success go up. Needs to avoid a 1st over journey and is worth a swing.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
2-Santastic Cruiser (5-1)-Has been trying hard and should offer a square price. Gets some needed post relief and Kurt Sugg can work a winning trip with the inside draw.
9-Quinndelynn (9/5)-Deserves to be the chalk but the 9/5 morning line seems a bit strong. Wrenn can get away with a close-up seat when the wings fold and the Burke trainee could benefit from the gate speed of the rail horse.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
1-Tobins Secret (6/5)-The 10-year-old banked over $131k last year and drops to a soft spot. Hasn't taken a picture since back on 12-2 and may have finally met a beatable field.
2-Mainline Charmer (7-1)-Price shot got a rough trip in last which was the 1st start in the Kash barn after a claim. This mare knows how to win and should be in line for an efficient trip.
6-Diamondtequilashot (4-1)-Finished 2nd in a quick mile last week. Justin Irvine takes over for Aaron Merriman and could be overlooked. This pilot could find a live cover flow and be in the hunt at the wire.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
2,7/2,4,7/2,9/1,2,6
Total Bet=$36
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #6
Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes #5 Officer Quigley He proved the claiming score in the debut was no fluke with a sharp follow-up win at 3/5 over the local footing here earlier this year. Let's see if he's good enough to handle the rail runner, but I think he should get a great trip while in touch with a few speedier players early. #1 Tape to Tape Dangerous pace might have a little bit of company, but he's probably quick enough to commit to the front from the fence and see if he can just run them off their feet. Lots to like except probably the price. #7 Omaha Red He ran pretty well in four starts here last season, and he's another with enough positional pace to sit close while not getting caught up with the tougher speed players into the turn. Race Summary Officer Quigley gets another test today after rattling off a couple solid scores to open his career, but I think he's talented enough to compete here with another perfect trip looming.
Fair Grounds - Race #10
Picks Notes #7 Helen's Little Sis She should be right up on the splits while stretching out off the decent debut run when she caught a tough winner. Think there is enough upside here to keep her in the mix. #11 Just Better She hit the top before settling underneath in the debut on the main track, but I wouldn't be shocked to see her move up a little bit on the grass today at second asking. Wide trip could be in store. #6 Remunzel She has already run a couple nice races here on the dirt this season, and she seemed to enjoy routing just fine last time out, making turf the only real question. In the frame. Race Summary Helen's Little Sis showed good tracking pace in that sprint debut, and that might leave her in a really good spot near the top while trying a turf route. Fun race, but I think she's the one.
Picks Notes #7 Bons Temps Roule Really interested to see him step up to try winners for the first time in a dirt stakes spot after the big improvement on the grass last out. The fact that he's even entered in here suggests his dirt ability is better than what he showed. I'd take something shorter than the 12/1 ML. #3 Carpis There is enough other talented pace in here that he will have to work for it, but he's probably quickest early and can control the tempo. Maybe he'll like the route trip. #4 Good and Stout He won here on Champions Day before finishing underneath in a mile run at Delta, and he figures to get another good trip tracking the pace from close range. Impacts this one throughout. Race Summary Bons Temps Roule was super sharp in the turf score last time out, but I'll give him another look on the dirt despite a flat debut run going short on the main track here in November. Think this is a positive move if he goes.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #2
Laurel Park - Race #4
Picks Notes #6 TUBTIMSIAM (3-1) Showed enough in first route attempt to defeat unproven rivals at this distance. #7 MY ENDEAVOR (2-1) Looked good at the top of the stretch but settled for minor awards twice. #5 TIK TOK DADDY (4-1) Leads for as far as he goes off improved second-out try sprinting. Race Summary TUBTIMSIAM ‘pulled his way forward’ between rivals after a bumpy start but came up empty in the stretch as the favorites rallied to finish 1-2. He takes another class drop, gets second-time Lasix and gets the call on a win and place bet.
Laurel Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #3 REMEMBERING WILBUR (7-2) Can return quick claim dividend after failed three-peat try as the fave. #6 CAPTAIN CARDO (3-1) Runs for Araujo, got up in time to win 2 of last 3 starts at this distance. #7 ROYAL SPY (5-2) Driven on lead at the top of stretch, held safe for 6F victory, has two wins at 7F. Race Summary REMEMBERING WILBUR has front-end wins at 5-1/2F, 6F and one mile in his last seven starts and can make good use of his speed again for his new connections at a distance which he previously conquered. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #2 GREAT DAYS AHEAD (7-2) Should sit an ideal trip and cash in on the drop below his claim level. #4 SPONSORED (10-1) Took money in seasonal debut, gets more pace to rally into, use in gimmicks. #7 IRISH WARLOCK (4-1) Second in his last three starts at this level at various distances. Race Summary GREAT DAYS AHEAD advanced on the turn and ‘forged ahead’ in mid-stretch at 6F in a race that could play out in similar fashion today. He raced up-close early and faded under urging for $25,000 in his last start on a day when off-the-pace runners fared well. Bet to win and place and lay a 2-4-7 exacta box.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park
PURCHASE
Sunland Park - Race 6 Maiden • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 4 • CR: 80 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 2:35P QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 128 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CALL STUMP: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed R ating. BROWN GRAVY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. A POLITICAL SIGN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KVN EMPRESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CALL STUMP BROWN GRAVY A POLITICAL SIGN KVN EMPRESS
Line
Class
Speed
FigureJ EL SOVERANO Slow CALL STUMP Fast BROWN GRAVY Average/Trouble-prone A POLITICAL SIGN Average TANGIE BOY Slow WALKED OUT Slow CAPSHAW HEZE Slow MR FDD VENGENCE Slow DREAM 19 Fast AB LOTS OF CASH Average KVN EMPRESS Average
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saudi CupPURCHASE
Saudi Cup - Race 5 Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 117 • Purse: $1,500,000 • Post: 9:40A SPORTS BOULEVARD RIYADH DIRT SPRINT S. - GRADE 3 FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BRED AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BRED, THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARDS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. REBELLIOUS STAGE is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * SKELLY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or r oute)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SKELLY
Unknown Running Style: ALFAISALEYAH (GB) (20/1) [Jockey: Alfouraidi Adel - Trainer: Alfehaid Fahad], POWER OF BEAUTY (IRE) (20/1) [Jockey: Almoussa Abdulaziz - Trainer: Almulawah Mutaeb], SUNSET FLASH (IRE) (30/1) [Jockey: Moreno Alexis - Trainer: Al
Line
Class
Speed
FigureJASPER KRONE Front-runner SKELLY Front-runner CAIRAMA Front-runner REBELLIOUS STAGE Stalker BOLD JOURNEY Trailer
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $13300 Class Rating: 87
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 1 CHIVALRY 7/2
# 3 SPACE FLIGHT 9/5
# 2 FORTUNATE CORONA 6/1
I give my vote to CHIVALRY here. With a very good 85 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. Is a very strong contender based on figs posted recently under today's conditions. Has ran soundly in short races. SPACE FLIGHT - Must be given a chance given the class of races run lately. Win percentage one of the best in this group of animals. FORTUNATE CORONA - Could go off at a nice number and has some positive attributes going for him. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately.
Aqueduct - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 75
Rating:
#8 FIND YOUR JOY (ML=8/1)
FIND YOUR JOY - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Jock jumped on this filly's back for the first ride on January 18th. Should know the horse even better in today's contest. It is my opinion that fillys run better the second time they get Lasix. Morley puts this filly on it for the 2nd time today, so give this one a look.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FIVE TO TWO (ML=2/1), #2 THE SHOE LADY (ML=7/2), #7 ARIANA RYE (ML=4/1),
FIVE TO TWO - The favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of drills. Not probable that the speed figure she earned on January 28th will be enough in this affair. THE SHOE LADY - This filly hasn't had any recent success in sprint contests. I find it hard to bet on her in this event. Not probable that this horse will finish better than she did last time out of the box when placing fourth. When looking at today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed rating than last time out to vie in this dirt sprint. ARIANA RYE - Don't think that this filly has value at 4/1 this time out.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - FIND YOUR JOY - Reviewing the past performance data, this horse last raced on Jan 18th at Aqueduct. Wasn't good enough for the win, but a solid 2nd place finish. Was well clear of the rest of the field. Should improve in this event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #8 FIND YOUR JOY to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: 8 with [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:8 with [4,7] with [2,3,4,7] Total Cost: $6
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 55
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 9 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 24 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 GIL HUGO VERO 7/2
# 4 MR. ZACH 9/5
# 1 HARLAN'S WAR 2/1
GIL HUGO VERO has a very strong shot to take this race. He has to be given a chance given the strong speed figs. Orozco has a sound 24 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. MR. ZACH - He looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. The average Equibase class figure of 47 makes this one tough to beat. HARLAN'S WAR - Always seems to be right there at the finish line.
Fonner Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:28pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,600 Class Rating: 75
Rating:
#1 PARLAY PETE (ML=5/2)
#4 NASTY EXAGGERATOR (ML=4/1)
PARLAY PETE - Ran last time around the track against a much better field at Delta Downs. The move down the class ladder should suit him well. This front-runner should be aided by this contest's shorter distance. This speed horse could take the lead quickly. My guess is he'll take a shot at going gate to wire in victory. NASTY EXAGGERATOR - Faced tougher in the last race at Columbus. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a layoff. This bullring of a track favors horses with early speed breaking from the inside. Seeing as this is what we have with this horse, I'm going to take a long hard look at this one. Just missed hitting the board on Oct 27th at Columbus. With decent M/L odds today, he has my interest. This gelding is certainly on the improve with speed figs of 56, 61, 70 last three out. That 70 fig this gelding recorded in his last event tells me he's a key player this time around.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CRIMSON ZIP (ML=3/1), #7 SANCOCHO (MEX) (ML=9/2), #6 DELIRIUM (ML=5/1),
CRIMSON ZIP - Tough to take this horse at this price after the finish position (sixth) in the last affair. Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance contests in order to bet on him. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender. SANCOCHO (MEX) - This gelding hasn't had any positive results in short distance contests in the last two months. DELIRIUM - Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a sprint clash to be worth the chance at low odds in a sprint.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #1 PARLAY PETE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Cat Burglar's Picks - 2/24/2024
Overall Record: 97-84-2
Kansas St +1.5
Houston ML
Kentucky ML
Georgia / Auburn UNDER 151.5
Virginia +1 FH
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
