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Thread: Tuesday 2/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Tuesday 2/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Mahoning Valley - Race #6
    Picks Notes
    #4 Rubinstein Demand a playable price, as he's not in great form right now, but he gets back down to to a level where he has been a bit more competitive in some of the races on his page. Maybe.
    #3 Perfetto He's one of the ones today, but I worry about the way he's been giving away ground late in his recent races and think he's probably got company near the top from the stretchout player just inside.
    #5 American Nightmare The last few stack up well enough here, but I wouldn't be too excited for another short price today in a spot where I'm not completely sold he's going to hold his form.
    Race Summary Rubinstein gets a slight call at what should be a decent number on the board, but I don't really trust anyone else in here, so it's a simple win play and hope for the best for me.
    Mahoning Valley - Race #7
    Picks Notes
    #6 Twisted Justice She's probably all or nothing today, but she draws well to utilize her pace in a race without a ton of early burn signed on. Should be in a position to control or prompt the pace from the start.
    #4 Bodil Think she's the most logical winner in the group, and she should be in a decent spot to spy the top choice early. Capable, but she's on a long string of slices and is probably another relatively short price.
    #1 Hello Sweets The overall form fits if she's ready to go off the layoff, but I wouldn't want to be here at too short a price with some underwhelming local running lines from last summer still on her page.
    Race Summary Twisted Justice has a little bit of midrange price appeal in a spot where her prompting pace might set her up for a great run of things.
    Mahoning Valley - Race #8
    Picks Notes
    #1 Kissing Medals She ran well at 38/1 to be third in the debut try, and she'll get Lasix for the second start today for a team that has done some good work in the last month. Reasonable second-out improvement puts her in the frame.
    #2 Wild Mariah She's not finding a ton of other committed pace, so that speed she showed in the last two starts might serve her well if they want to try to take this to them early.
    #8 Hot Princess She still needs to come forward if she's going to land this, but she has been slowly heading the right way and showed a bit more finishing punch last out. Not impossible.
    Race Summary Kissing Medals isn't far off what it might take to land this, and she has logical room to improve today while getting Lasix for the second go.

  3. #3
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    Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


    Parx - Race #1
    Picks Notes
    #6 VICTORIOUS VICTORIA (7-2) Ranged up after bad start and faltered; dam was 5-16 with $167k.
    #8 MIKEY’S SONG (2-1) Rallied for share in three straight for $40k before latest start.
    #1 NEIGHBELLINE (5-2) Chased 4-1 winner in slow heat as the favorite, held second.
    Race Summary VICTORIOUSVICTORIA went to her knees briefly at the start, advanced behind the dueling leaders through the turn but flattened out in the stretch in a well-bet debut for a strong first-out barn. She drops in class off the claim, gets Lasix and gets in light-weighted. Bet to win and place.
    Parx - Race #2
    Picks Notes
    #6 PREDOMINATE (9-2) Solid numbers, likes Parx, lack of pace the concern on class drop.
    #2 SAILOR’S RETURN (2-1) Earned top speed in defeat but remains dangerous as pace controller again.
    #1 DAD’S ON A ROLL (4-1) Won three times in a seven-race stretch in the second half of last year.
    Race Summary PREDOMINATE, a solid starter allowance router in the fall, could find his recent descent on the claiming ladder to his liking at this level. He finished in the money in 10 of 15 at Parx and looks to build on a six-figure bankroll. Bet to win and place.
    Parx - Race #3
    Picks Notes
    #4 NINJA PRIZE (2-1) Ideally spotted, can make good use of speed, won off similar rest in December.
    #1 LUCKY DUDE (6-1) Took money, raced wide into slow pace, has two wins at 6F.
    #3 COMPLETED STORM (9-2) Reversed form, sprung an 11-1 upset with blinkers on.
    Race Summary NINJA PRIZE shook a duel with next-out winner TAP IN FORMATION two starts back, then dueled and gave way to a trio of deep closers on a muddy track last out. He gets class relief and could spar with the same rival and continue on with another victory. Bet to win and place.

  4. #4
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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

    PURCHASE
    Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 7
    Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double
    Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 67 • Purse: $35,100 • Post: 3:33P
    FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TWISTED JUSTICE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HELLO SWEETS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BODIL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SEEYOUINMOTOWN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TWISTED JUSTICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPICE ICE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
    1
    HELLO SWEETS
    8/5
    5/1
    4
    BODIL
    5/2
    6/1
    2
    SEEYOUINMOTOWN
    6/1
    7/1
    6
    TWISTED JUSTICE
    8/1
    9/1
    5
    SPICE ICE
    10/1
    9/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    6
    TWISTED JUSTICE
    6
    8/1
    Front-runner
    58
    53
    77.8
    36.8
    27.3
    3
    KAT TRAX
    3
    7/2
    Stalker
    63
    52
    58.8
    56.4
    48.4
    1
    HELLO SWEETS
    1
    8/5
    Alternator/Stalker
    75
    66
    52.6
    68.2
    64.7
    4
    BODIL
    4
    5/2
    Trailer
    68
    68
    62.6
    64.0
    59.0
    2
    SEEYOUINMOTOWN
    2
    6/1
    Trailer
    68
    65
    46.6
    59.0
    52.0
    5
    SPICE ICE
    5
    10/1
    Trailer
    69
    65
    39.4
    55.0
    47.0

  5. #5
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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE


    Turf Paradise - Race 4
    $1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
    Claiming $8,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 87 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 2:19P
    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Lone Trailer. COLOR ME LEGENDARY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CARPE BELLUM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CONRAD THE RED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COLOR ME LEGENDARY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
    5
    CARPE BELLUM
    3/1
    3/1
    4
    CONRAD THE RED
    7/2
    4/1
    3
    COLOR ME LEGENDARY
    5/1
    5/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    CLEAR THE COAST
    1
    9/2
    Front-runner
    64
    70
    55.0
    55.0
    45.0
    6
    MANDELA EFFECT
    6
    10/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    61
    62
    46.8
    46.8
    37.3
    5
    CARPE BELLUM
    5
    3/1
    Stalker
    86
    83
    76.0
    79.5
    76.0
    4
    CONRAD THE RED
    4
    7/2
    Stalker
    78
    88
    75.8
    78.8
    73.8
    2
    BLUES RAPPER
    2
    8/1
    Stalker
    76
    67
    55.3
    64.4
    54.9
    3
    COLOR ME LEGENDARY
    3
    5/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    82
    72
    81.5
    73.0
    66.0
    7
    CLEARING CUSTOMS
    7
    4/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    53
    52
    40.3
    40.3
    29.3

  6. #6
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:19pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 87

    Rating:

    #5 CARPE BELLUM (ML=3/1)
    #4 CONRAD THE RED (ML=7/2)
    #3 COLOR ME LEGENDARY (ML=5/1)


    CARPE BELLUM - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a solid effort is a good sign. CONRAD THE RED - This gelding is in excellent physical condition right now. Ran second last time around the track and comes back quickly. That 85 fig this gelding notched in his last event tells me he's a main player this time. COLOR ME LEGENDARY - Expect this gelding to be last down the backstretch early and come flying down the lane.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CLEARING CUSTOMS (ML=4/1), #1 CLEAR THE COAST (ML=9/2), #2 BLUES RAPPER (ML=8/1),

    CLEARING CUSTOMS - Hard to play this gelding today since the event isn't limited to three year olds. Should be difficult for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list. CLEAR THE COAST - Hard to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the stab. BLUES RAPPER - Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the front end. Likes to end up on the board though.


    STRAIGHT WAGERS: We're advising skipping the win bets this time
    EXACTA WAGERS: None

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass

  7. #7
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 10 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 78

    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 8 WARRIOR'S VENDETTA 8/1
    # 5 SMARTEN UP 6/1
    # 10 KEANU 9/2

    I give the nod to WARRIOR'S VENDETTA in this event and the potential return justifies the precarious nature of the long odds. Overall the Speed Figures of this horse look formidable in this race. Garnered a very strong Equibase Speed Figure last time out. Trainers don't bring horses back this quickly just for fun. SMARTEN UP - Has to be given consideration against this group of animals displaying decent figures lately and an average Equibase speed fig of 69 under similar conditions. He must be considered given the very good speed figs. KEANU - Has to be given a shot versus this field displaying respectable figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 69 under similar conditions. Should go off at a big price and has some positive angles going for him.

  8. #8
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 88

    QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 4 JESS A WILD CANDY 9/2
    # 2 MY CORONA BLUES 8/1
    # 5 PIRATES FAST CASH 5/2

    My pick for this event is JESS A WILD CANDY. Has garnered strong Speed Figures in short races in the past. Aquino will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early in this race. MY CORONA BLUES - Is a definite contender - given the 80 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. With a sound ROI of +27 this trainer has shown solid results with entries running at this distance and surface. PIRATES FAST CASH - He looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

  9. #9
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    Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,100 Class Rating: 57

    Rating:

    #5 LORDHEARMYPRAYER (ML=3/1)
    #6 MISS LINDYSUE (ML=7/2)
    #1 IMA SURE BET (ML=6/1)


    LORDHEARMYPRAYER - The way this affair sets up this mare will be in stalking position when they start the running for real. This horse could be tough this time, especially since Barbaran rode last out and now should be acquainted with this one. The 52 most recent race speed rating looks mighty good in the TrackMaster PPs. I like to play this angle, a pony coming back off a strong effort within the last month or so. MISS LINDYSUE - First-time going 1 mile 70 yards. This trainer is a keen one when it comes to stretching out any equine. I'd give them a real good look. Fletcher gets a break on this horse carrying 5 lbs less than last out. Should be helpful in this event. IMA SURE BET - Always be wary of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Ran last time around the track against better company at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BANK BUSTER (ML=2/1), #4 CLIMATE (ML=4/1),

    BANK BUSTER - You always believe this horse has a shot to be the victor, but she just misses regularly. CLIMATE - This vulnerable equine ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS: #5 LORDHEARMYPRAYER is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better
    EXACTA WAGERS: Pass

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass

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