Thursday 2/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #7

Picks	Notes
#4 By the Sword	Get a look at him ahead of time on the track and tote, but he's really not meeting a great field in this first start, so he might be a good fit with realistic expectations.
#9 Gotta Keep Him	Wouldn't be any surprise to see him land this while trying claimers for the first time, and her last one really wasn't all bad when only two lengths off the winner at the post.
#3 Dream Cruise	Nothing much in the debut run with special weight company, but this easier spot gives him some extra upside while making his second career start.
Race Summary	By the Sword goes first time out in a soft spot for the local level, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him land this right out of the box. Gotta Keep Him is the clear one to beat.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

Picks	Notes
#6 Cash Fever	His ability to rate just a touch should serve him well today in a spot with a few capable speed types, and he really hasn't done much wrong through three starts. In the mix again.
#5 Champlin	He's got a high ceiling if the debut run was any indication, but he might have a bit more engagement on the engine today than he did at first asking. Capable and talented.
#8 Camp Daddy	He would benefit if all the potential pace hooked up early on, as he owns pretty reliable finishing form that could put him on the scene late.
Race Summary	Cash Fever and Champlin look like the right ones in here, but I'm hoping 'Fever offers a mildly playable price if Champlin takes cash off the sharp debut score.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

Picks	Notes
#1 Dona Witch	She's probably supposed to have some upside while moving around two turns on the grass off the track-and-fade sprint debut at Turfway. Improvement expected.
#2 Liffey	Bit of a tough call depending on the price on the board, as he has been honest so far but tends to come alive too late. Another piece more likely today?
#6 Chasing Summer	She made her first start at Delta and presumably has some room to improve while moving to the turf second time out for a tough team. Player.
Race Summary	Dona Witch can come forward while getting a turf route for the first time, and she might have enough speed to find a good spot from the inside while stretching out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

Picks	Notes
#5 ISAYSO (4-1)	Could take some catching on class drop at inviting morning-line price.
#1 SMART JENNY (8-1)	Raced 4- to 6-wide when third to the favorite two back for $25k.
#7 GHOZ ON (7-2)	No threat against better in debut, gets in light-weighted.
Race Summary	ISAYSO has the best all-weather track sprint form and can make maximum use of her speed on the class drop. Zayas rides the recent four-time runner-up for the first time today. Bet to win and place and play a 5/1,7/ALL trifecta.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

Picks	Notes
#2 GUAIO (4-1)	Gelded since runner-up debut finish six month ago, gets Gaffalione.
#3 CANAVERO (8-1)	Rough trip in rapid-paced second start at this level, enters new barn.
#5 CURLINS CRUZIN (2-1)	Wore blinkers, earned top speed figure in defeat in MSW sprint at Tampa.
Race Summary	GUAIO showed promise in his September debut, rallying for second behind Hermoso Hombre, who ran second in a $35,000 optional claiming race and third in a four-horse stakes race after that. He lures Gaffalione and wears blinkers as a first-time gelding in his 3-year-old debut. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

Picks	Notes
#2 SANPIRODU (6-1)	Won in first route attempt, figures in the mix at this level in third start of cycle.
#3 ICE THE KICKER (5-2)	Repelled challenges on both sides, ran second to trip-sitting fave at distance.
#4 DESIGNATED HITTER (3-1)	Got focused with blinkers, drew off to win in 11-horse field.
Race Summary	SANPIRODU overcame a slow pace to break his maiden for $35k, then was no factor against better in two follow-up tries with Lasix. Encouraged by the 1:01 breeze over the track last Friday and Castellano’s return to ride. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Win Wagering Only
Stakes • 1 3/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 104 • Purse: $1,500,000 • Post: 12:00
PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 FIELD AND MORNING LINE PRESENTED BY HORSE RACING N - GRADE 1 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. COLTS AND GELDINGS 126LBS. FILLIES 121LBS. TO PLACE A FUTURE WAGER IN POOL 1 ON THE 2024 PREAKNESS STAKES, PLEASE ASK FOR RACE 1. IF YOU WISH TO WAGER ON THE FIELD WHICH REPRESENTS ALL OTHER THREE-YEAR-OLD THOROUGHBREDS, ASK FOR NUMBER 40. NO REFUNDS WILL BE ISSUED IN ANY OF THE WAGERING POOLS FOR THE PREAKNESS STAKES FUTURE WAGER. ALL WAGERS ARE FINAL ONCE THE PATRON HAS LEFT THE WINDOW. THIS POOL WILL RUN THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 29TH - SATURDAY, MARCH 2ND. POOL 1 OPENS AT NOON THURSDAY,FEBRUARY 29TH AND CLOSES AT 8:00PMET ON SATURDAY, MARCH 2ND. THIS IS A WIN ONLY WAGER.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * NYSOS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at le ast 50. TRACK PHANTOM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MUTH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ENDLESSLY: Horse's w in percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DORNOCH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
29	NYSOS	4/1	3/1
37	TRACK PHANTOM	40/1	8/1
25	MUTH	20/1	10/1
12	ENDLESSLY	60/1	10/1
10	DORNOCH	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
37	TRACK PHANTOM	37	40/1	Front-runner	100	96	98.2	95.6	66.1
34	SPEEDYNESS	34	50/1	Front-runner	90	95	96.4	92.5	26.0
10	DORNOCH	10	15/1	Front-runner	97	99	95.5	91.8	65.8
20	JUST A TOUCH	20	30/1	Front-runner	83	100	94.8	94.8	52.8
27	NASH	27	50/1	Front-runner	98	92	90.1	93.8	74.3
33	SPEAK EASY	33	50/1	Front-runner	89	92	87.2	87.2	45.7
39	VICTORY AVENUE	39	50/1	Front-runner	89	89	84.4	84.4	39.4
11	DRIP	11	60/1	Front-runner	83	86	81.5	81.5	20.0
5	CHANGE OF COMMAND	5	60/1	Front-runner	84	82	77.2	75.3	8.8
13	EPIC RIDE	13	60/1	Front-runner	92	97	75.8	89.1	37.6
24	MAYMUN	24	10/1	Front-runner	93	102	61.6	95.7	66.2
3	BORN NOBLE	3	50/1	Front-runner	85	80	54.0	75.8	13.8
19	INVEIGLED	19	50/1	Front-runner	92	72	53.3	74.3	11.3
14	FIERCENESS	14	25/1	Front-runner	102	100	50.0	88.6	78.1
17	HALL OF FAME	17	50/1	Stalker	88	88	102.3	87.5	44.0
21	KNIGHTSBRIDGE	21	30/1	Stalker	85	104	98.6	98.6	75.1
29	NYSOS	29	4/1	Stalker	99	110	92.0	109.0	100.0
25	MUTH	25	20/1	Stalker	103	98	91.8	95.6	80.1
26	MYSTIK DAN	26	40/1	Stalker	92	105	88.3	88.3	62.8
7	COMMON DEFENSE	7	60/1	Stalker	95	92	84.7	86.9	56.4
38	TUSCAN SKY	38	50/1	Stalker	90	98	84.4	93.9	62.4
35	STRONGHOLD	35	50/1	Stalker	96	91	82.8	85.4	32.4
30	RESILIENCE	30	50/1	Stalker	91	87	77.8	83.6	25.1
2	BOOK'EM DANNO	2	50/1	Stalker	96	95	63.5	92.9	61.4
28	NO MORE TIME	28	50/1	Stalker	88	91	60.7	81.1	23.6
36	TIMBERLAKE	36	20/1	Stalker	100	106	57.8	100.3	73.8
9	DOMESTIC PRODUCT	9	40/1	Stalker	90	90	52.9	82.8	36.3
16	HADES	16	50/1	Stalker	90	96	52.1	90.1	35.6
12	ENDLESSLY	12	60/1	Trailer	94	99	104.3	95.7	84.2
6	COACH PRIME	6	15/1	Trailer	92	93	95.1	89.4	43.9
22	LIBERAL ARTS	22	50/1	Trailer	96	94	83.1	87.7	36.2
4	CATCHING FREEDOM	4	50/1	Trailer	99	97	82.4	90.3	57.3
18	HONOR MARIE	18	30/1	Trailer	92	95	78.3	89.9	57.9
23	LOCKED	23	20/1	Trailer	104	99	78.2	99.6	85.1
31	SIERRA LEONE	31	15/1	Trailer	100	99	73.3	92.8	71.3
32	SNEAD	32	50/1	Trailer	92	96	69.4	87.7	31.7
1	AGATE ROAD	1	50/1	Trailer	93	83	50.9	75.9	24.4
8	CONQUEST WARRIOR	8	40/1	Trailer	89	80	42.7	71.1	9.1

Unknown Running Style: FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (40/1) [Jockey: Unknown Jockey - Trainer: Yahagi Yoshito], ALL OTHER THREE YEAR OLD (6/1) [Jockey: Unknown Jockey - Trainer: Unknown Trainer].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for AqueductPURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 8	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $72,000 • Post: 4:57P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2023 - 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * THANK YOU JON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SAFALOW'S MISSION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LIGHT MAN: Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. DR. KRAFT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
8	THANK YOU JON	6/1	9/2
2	SAFALOW'S MISSION	4/1	5/1
7	LIGHT MAN	3/1	8/1
9	DR. KRAFT	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	LIGHT MAN	7	3/1	Front-runner	86	85	80.6	80.6	73.1
3	MESSI THE MAGICIAN	3	15/1	Front-runner	78	78	69.8	69.8	52.3
8	THANK YOU JON	8	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	88	86	101.4	86.0	78.0
2	SAFALOW'S MISSION	2	4/1	Stalker	92	86	75.8	89.6	84.6
1	PROVISION	1	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	76	66.2	71.8	58.8
4	DOC ADVANTAGE	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	79	46.2	73.2	62.2
5	CLEVER FOREVER	5	7/2	Trailer	82	79	83.1	76.0	67.5
6	NOBLE HUNTSMAN	6	15/1	Trailer	92	79	75.8	73.5	63.0
9	DR. KRAFT	9	4/1	Trailer	93	87	55.8	75.7	68.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16600 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CASTLE REVIEW 12/1
# 1 SUMMERTIME ROSE 5/2
# 2 PLANET FROLIC 9/5

CASTLE REVIEW has a quite good shot to take this race and could score at a price in here. Has been racing strongly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. She has been moving strongly recently while recording very strong speed figs. Entries trained by Shuler in dirt sprint races are normally solid. SUMMERTIME ROSE - She has been racing solidly recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figs. Trainer boasts very strong win figures at this distance and surface. PLANET FROLIC - Win percentage one of the strongest in this field. Must be used in the exotic wagers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 2:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#3 PARS AND BIRDIES (ML=9/2)
#2 SEA BREEZE BOY (ML=7/2)


PARS AND BIRDIES - Rider hops right back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last race out. That's always a great angle. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. The February 19th event at Turf Paradise was at a class level of (85). Dropping to a lower class level drastically, so he should be in a good position to win. He'll be laying in the catbird's seat, right behind the leaders. SEA BREEZE BOY - After the race aboard this animal on Feb 5th, the jock is going to be in touch with the gelding much better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CHIEFS BLANKET (ML=1/1),

CHIEFS BLANKET - Just don't think he is worth the risk at the probable odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 PARS AND BIRDIES to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 83

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 POOF HE'S GONE 3/1
# 4 HOLD ME ONLY 6/1
# 3 CERVEZA 4/1

POOF HE'S GONE is the most respectable bet in this race. Is a solid contender based on figures posted lately under today's conditions. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the lead recently. Could beat this group of animals given the 66 speed fig recorded in his last outing. HOLD ME ONLY - His 67 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figs in this event. CERVEZA - Is tough not to examine based on speed figures which have been quite good - 71 avg - of late. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 55

Rating:

#3 GHOST OF LONDYN (ML=6/1)
#2 DRILIN' FOR GEMS (ML=10/1)


GHOST OF LONDYN - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. DRILIN' FOR GEMS - With no past performances, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Radosevich has a +103 percent ROI clip with first-time-starters. I like this first time starter mainly because his workouts for this have been here at Mahoning Valley Race Course. Radosevich is giving this one Lasix for the first time. Nice move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 C V DYNAMIC (ML=5/2), #1 SWAYBACK MOBIL (ML=4/1), #4 CINSAULT (ML=9/2),

C V DYNAMIC - This gelding probably won't be really close at the wire. SWAYBACK MOBIL - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint events in order to back him. 4/1 odds isn't enough for this one when looking at the most recent outings. No speed in this event to help this come from behinder's dreams at winning. CINSAULT - No success for this vulnerable equine in a short distance contest over the last two months tells me that this colt is in a formidable spot

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 GHOST OF LONDYN to win if you can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass