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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/1/24
March 1, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, March 1, 2024
RACE 1
4-LAMPORGHINI
Degree of confidence: B-
• Fresh from clever a win over this course and distance, tough again.
• Rising speed figures with each start; can continue on the upgrade.
• Healthy recent work pattern with three nice breezes since raced.
Others to consider: 2-Two by Four.
RACE 2
1-EIGHT CLAP
Degree of confidence: B
• Missed at even money last time out; tries dirt and a drop in class.
• Pedigree suggests surface switch can help; deserves another shot.
• Lacks gate zip so rail is a concern but may be able to tag the leaders.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 3
4-MUBTADAA
Degree of confidence: B
• Been away two years but the barn has excellent stats with layoff runners.
• Loves the local lawn and will benefit from a favorably soft pace projection.
• Powerful Dettori-Cerin jockey/trainer team; workouts should have him fit.
Others to consider: 2-Johnny Podres.
RACE 4
1-BELLE EPOQUE
Degree of confidence: B
• Graduated over this rack and distance with a strong figure, may repeat.
• Lands the rail and must break sharply to take advantage of the draw.
• Drops from maiden $40,000 to straight $32,000 in a realistic placement.
Others to consider: 2-Bossy Bruin Gal.
RACE 5
8-ASHLEYS SANCASTLE
Degree of confidence: B-
• Likes to settle early and take hold late; needs help up front.
• Retains top rider Juan Hernandez, solid numbers for the level.
• Outside draw no help; must drop over and get covered up early.
Others to consider: 3-Isabel Ludlow
RACE 6
4-JENSCO
Degree of confidence: B+
• Freshened since October, returns with a series of impressive drills.
• Most effective from a mid-pack early spot; projects for a good trip.
• Lightly raced with room for improvement; has speed figures that fit.
Others to consider: 2-Class Clown; 6-Kristi’s Tiger.
RACE 7
2-YARBOROUGH
Degree of confidence: B
• Exits a series of much tougher races; should appreciate the class drop.
• Victimized by a lack of pace in Astra Stakes; still earned a solid figure.
• Shows darkened form but can improve and offers a big price chance.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 8
7-PERFECTIONIST
Degree of confidence: B
• Stretches out after a series of sprints and plummets to the bottom.
• Picks up Flavien Prat in a sign of confidence; very likely to improve.
• Interior sprint fractions indicate he should be on or near the lead.
Others to consider: 4-Mastermind; 10-Mike Operator.
RACE 9
2-CHASINSERENDIPITY
Degree of confidence: B-
• Clever win over this course and distance at this level last time out.
• Properly placed right back by Cerin; switches to go-to rider Dettori.
• Most effective when reserved off the pace and turned loose late.
Others to consider: 4-A Crown for Kitten; 5-Quaria Thunder.
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
March 1, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 10-race card. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)
1-TSS Hot House (2-1)-Seems to do enough to hit the board but not win. Luke Plano should work a cozy trip and it would be no surprise if this mare cashed the top check. But not trustworthy, and the price will be small.
4-Cenalta Glory (7/2)-Form has been dull and this 8-year-old mare has only raced 10 times in the past 2 years. Did win versus softer the last time James Kennedy was between the pipes. Using and expecting the price will be better than the morning line.
7-Cenalta Sunrise (5/2)-This will be the 3rd start on Lasix and did race better on Saturday night. Jacob Cutting steers for trainer Renee Goulet and will expect a big try.
Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)
1-Lifesabouttogetgood (8-1)-Will swing for a price in another field without much form. This will be the 2nd lifetime start and went the 2nd half in 58.2. Can't afford to be a block behind the field on the first turn but if not could be in the hunt near the wire.
2-Senga Nataja (6-1)-This is another who starts slowly and last time also raced wide in much of the mile. Does pass foes down the lane and that in itself makes this gal useable versus a suspect crew.
4-Suddenly Famous (6-1)-Three-year-old tries older and why not? Has shown one good move and then fades. This will be the 3rd straight appearance for Cutting. Maybe this pilot will be able to get the timing down and come with a big brush to roll by.
7-Do It For Mikey (5/2)-Tried to wire the field from post 9 but faded down the lane. Has booked only 1 win in 21 races and hasn't connected in 11 tries at CalX. But did miss a start before the last race. Nick Roland steers this time, which shouldn't hurt and hopefully won't be over bet.
Race 9 (9:45 PM PST)
1-Gee Wilikers (8/5)-Drops and beat this kind back on 12-26. Team Cutting entry lands in a spot for a picture. Draws the rail, likes to race near the top of the stack and could be tough to tackle with an easy lead.
4-Editorial (6-1)-Recent form has been dull but is dropping to a more competitive level. The last time Kennedy steered it led to a picture and the price should be right to look for an upset.
Race 10 (10:05 PM PST)
5-Sneak Peek Hanover (9/2)-Has left to get the top in the last 2 races and has faded down the lane. Beaten chalk may need a different plan. The trainer, Jesse Pacheco is steering again, and will look for a more patient drive to save some juice for late in the mile.
7-Frewil Dakota Sven (2-1)-Had no issue beating this kind on 1-28 at a short price. The same could happen here as long as Cutting is in striking range at the top of the lane.
0.20 Pick 4
1,4,7/1,2,4,7/1,4/5,7
Total Bet=$9.60
Laurel Park Bet $100/Get $20
March 1, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK BET $100, GET $20
Friday, March 1
Be 1/ST in line to take advantage of a Bet $100/Get $20 promo this Friday, March 1 at Laurel Park. Bet to win-place-show, bet exactas, trifectas or superfectas, bet what you want to become eligible for the bonus. The Bet $100/Get $20 promo will be at the starting gate every Friday throughout the month. Bet on your own picks or bet on these 1/ST selections to try and build your bankroll:
LRL Race 1 (12:25 p.m. EST) -- SPICY MARGARITA has two wins, a second and a third in her last four starts sprinting on a fast track. She won off a two-month freshening for her new barn to become the third starter allowance winner to exit the December 10 race at Laurel. She shook free in early stretch and held on to win at 6F, making her equally dangerous to repeat at 5-1/2F. ROYAL WHISPER finished between three next-out winners when second from post 10 in a 6F sprint two back. She validated that effort with a near miss in the one-mile Geisha Stakes for Maryland breds and should benefit from a lively pace today.
1/ST Bets on Race 1
$15 win and place #1 SPICY MARGARITA
$6 exacta 1-7 (#1 SPICY MARGARITA/#7 ROYAL WHISPER)
$4 exacta 7-1 (#7 ROYAL WHISPER/#1 SPICY MARGARITA)
$10 daily double 1-4 (#1 SPICY MARGARITA/#4 NASTY HABIT)
Race 2 (12:55 p.m. EST) -- NASTY HABIT gave way chasing runaway Full Irish at 7F two starts back, no knock considering that same rival went wire-to-wire in a follow-up 6F allowance in 1:10-2/5. Then he traveled to Parx, where he chased and caught well-meant first-time starter Hundred Grand, who accelerated on the lead through rapid fractions at 6F. He finished 11-1/2 lengths in front of Respirator, who came back to win a 6-1/2F MSW sprint by 3-1/4 lengths with an 84 Beyer speed figure.
1/ST Bets on Race 2
$30 win #4 NASTY HABIT
Race 6 (2:52 p.m. EST) -- Will CRUSADER RABBIT live up to the hype of an 8-5 morning-line in her debut? Considering her sire, Into Mischief, led all North America sires last year with more than $25 million in progeny earnings and considering her dam, Constellation, romped in her debut at Saratoga and was multiple graded stakes-placed as a 2-year-old, lean toward a “yes” answer. For better value, play her on top of straight exactas with DETERMINED CANDY, a $130,000 sales buy with steady workouts and a debut-winning dam, and GATE SONG, who gets Lasix and blinkers after a well-bet and useful debut for a 17-percent trainer with second-out starters in the last three years.
1/ST Bets on Race 6
$10 exacta 5-7 (#5 CRUSADER RABBIT/#7 DETERMINED CANDY)
$10 exacta 5-3 (#5 CRUSADER RABBIT/#3 GATE SONG)
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #4
Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes #4 Star Ready Think he's worth a small price look, as he's coming out of a non effort in a race I liked a bit, and he might be in a pretty good spot tracking the pace. Outruns his odds into the short stretch? #1 Big Tap Baby He can be tough today off a decent first try at this level last out when he just caught a very easy winner. Nothing much to be afraid of in this spot -- could be graduation day. #6 Queenie's Leroy He didn't miss by much two starts back before proving no threat in the same common race as Big Tap Baby, but he still looks like one of the ones. Race Summary Star Ready should be a decent price to see if he can bounce back off a total dud last time out, and there are a couple of route races on his page that are at least mildly interesting in this bad spot.
Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Bolt From Above He has been landing underneath shares with similar in recent starts, and I think he's going to get the kind of trip that might give him the slightest jump on the deeper finishing players. Could see him putting it all together today. #6 Wissam Sharaf That was a good debut effort at Monmouth last summer, and he seems in the mix with this group if he can bring something similar off the bench. Enough to like. #7 Big To Do Debuter goes for a team that is dangerous with almost anything they send out in a race like this, so get a look at him on the track and tote. Not totally sure how to feel. Race Summary Bolt From Above goes third off the layoff in a race where I could easily see him bringing a top effort. He's got some good recent company lines, too.
Picks Notes #8 Sassy Spry Solid lean here in the finale after a decent first try at this level, and she is one of the few in here with some mild finishing form. Improvement second off the break might make her tough. #2 Gemmy She has some tracking pace and has shown an ability to grind on late to stay in those races at Delta, and something similar might do the trick here if she can transfer the form. #9 Highlander's Edge This could be a battle of attrition late, so she makes some sense for the same reason as Gemmy -- she has that chasing pace but doesn't always fold late. Race Summary Sassy Spry might get a really nice run of things while going second off the layoff, and I think she's one of the few in here with a real chance to pick up horses late.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes #1 SIR LUMPALOT (9-5) Proved versatile but just missed in ‘photos,’ rail draw helps. #3 FAST PAYDAY (9-2) Hasn’t raced on main track since runner-up finish here 13 months ago. #7 B G LEE (5-1) Edged clear for upset win at this distance in third start locally. Race Summary In a field of unproven routers, SIR LUMPALOT merits favoritism off a pair of recent photo-finish setbacks, one while dueling through the far turn, the other when rallying on the turn and gaining 5-wide in the stretch. He posted the fastest of 108 workouts prior to his last start. Bet to win and place.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 MY GREAT ILLUSION (3-1) Appears rounding to win for this barn, lone turf try was deceptively good. #7 MAGNUS EFFECT (8-1) Dueled long way in debut on soft footing, value remains. #1 A FANCY SOLUTION (9-2) Found proper level, rallied extremely wide for third with first-time Lasix. Race Summary MY GREAT ILLUSION improved with Lasix and blinkers on the main track in his last two starts and ran better than it appears on the Gulfstream Park turf prior to that. He advanced some between runners on the final turn before checking in traffic and out of contention. The runaway winner, Hot N Lucky, came back to win again through via disqualification. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #4 HIGH BROW (6-1) Loves to win, hooked sharp winner in latest, sheds 5 pounds. #7 SHANE’S JEWEL (5-2) Classy 9yo parlayed speed into two wins and three seconds in last five starts. #6 MR. TITOS (10-1) Passed by the favorite in solid return from nine-month layoff, takes class hike. Race Summary HIGH BROW ascended through the claiming ranks to win three of his last seven starts for various barns. He finished third last out behind repeat winner and 3-to-5 favorite Just Plain Ornery (6-19, $90k). Bet to win and place and play a 4/6,7/ALL trifecta.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Fonner Park - Race 3 Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 49 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:54P FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ATHENIAN PRINCESS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post positio n. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. OVER BLINGED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. SENSE OF HEART: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating. Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18. SPANGLE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse is dropping into a race which has an C lass Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. ATHENIAN PRINCESS OVER BLINGED SENSE OF HEART SPANGLE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureGNAUGHTY KIMMY Front-runner ATHENIAN PRINCESS Alternator/Front-runner SENSE OF HEART Alternator/Stalker OVER BLINGED Alternator/Stalker SPANGLE Alternator/Stalker AUNT CARI Alternator/Non-contender AFLEET DIVINE Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour WagersPURCHASE
Golden Hour Wagers - Race 2 Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $19,500 • Post: 4:14P GG-R6 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ALEXANDER'S DREAM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WAR GAMES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ARMA D'ORO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. DOO WOP DON: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. OUR BOLD PRINCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALEXANDER'S DREAM WAR GAMES ARMA D'ORO DOO WOP DON OUR BOLD PRINCE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureWAR GAMES Front-runner OUR BOLD PRINCE Front-runner ALEXANDER'S DREAM Stalker AFFECTIONTO AUTISM Alternator/Stalker GABBY HAYES Trailer DOO WOP DON Trailer ARMA D'ORO Trailer HORSE DOCTOR Alternator/Non-contender
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9 - Post: 4:35pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 84
Rating:
#9 JEBY (ML=2/1)
#2 BALLINDINE (ML=5/1)
JEBY - This animal is for real on the grass. TrackMaster turf rating in last race at Gulfstream Park was tops in this field. Speed ratings on the grass point to this horse as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance-surface. Running on the turf today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. Came home fast last time around the track at Gulfstream Park. That type of move bodes well for his chances right here. BALLINDINE - Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a good race in the last race within the last 30 days. Finished out of the money last out at Tampa Bay Downs, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 5/1 makes me think he's got a chance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MORETHANICANHANDLE (ML=7/2), #8 HUMBLE WARRIOR (ML=4/1), #1 E MINOR (ML=6/1),
MORETHANICANHANDLE - It appears like too much speed is entered in this event. This early speedball will likely get cooked on the front end. HUMBLE WARRIOR - Tough to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. E MINOR - Tough to wager on at 6/1 odds after the most recent showings.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JEBY - I'm making a wager on this one today. Easier company is going to make a big difference. Will be strong today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #9 JEBY is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13100 Class Rating: 64
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 SILVERS LAST DANCE 2/1
# 7 GABRIELLA WHO 3/1
# 6 IT'S A GIRL 12/1
SILVERS LAST DANCE is my choice. She has been running strongly lately while recording very strong Speed Figures. Amparan will almost certainly be able to get this filly to break out early in here. The speed figure of 60 from her last contest looks competitive in here. GABRIELLA WHO - Is tough not to consider based on speed figures which have been decent - 58 avg - of late. With a formidable 53 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. IT'S A GIRL - Appears to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept. Looks decent to be close to the lead at the first call.
Santa Anita - Race #3 - Post: 1:29pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 104
Rating:
#2 JOHNNY PODRES (ML=6/1)
#6 GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) (ML=4/1)
#5 JETOVATOR (ML=3/1)
#3 FORGIVING SPIRIT (ML=4/1)
JOHNNY PODRES - When Franco and Barocio team up on horses the return on investment has been fabulous at +83. Barocio adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a marked improvement. GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) - This equine has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Hernandez, and this one could bound home the winner. This horse brings in a lot of dough per start. I believe he will boost that bankroll in this field. JETOVATOR - Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this horse at the top of my list of strong contenders. Last race out on the grass, this animal was strong. Anything close today, and this one should win. Eurton is solid in grass sprints. This animal should have no justifications if he doesn't win. This gelding garnered a good speed rating of 102 in his last affair. That speed fig should be strong enough to win in today's event. FORGIVING SPIRIT - In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His speed ratings are the highest in the field for this distance-surface. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Santa Anita. Could add another win right here. Came home fast last time around the track at Santa Anita. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MUBTADAA (ML=5/2), #1 PROOF HE RIDES (ML=8/1),
MUBTADAA - I find it hard to wager on this questionable contender in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint event before you bet on him in a race of 6 furlongs. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. PROOF HE RIDES - When looking at today's class rating, he will have to earn a much better speed fig than last race out to vie in this turf sprint.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #2 JOHNNY PODRES to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 71
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 LLAMARADA 4/5
# 5 FIORENZA 6/1
# 3 MOBAY PRINCESS 10/1
LLAMARADA supports the bet in here. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a contender. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look decent in this race. Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the recipe to a turnaround. FIORENZA - This racer ought to be wagered on at the expected big odds. Last time out, this filly ran against a much tougher crew. MOBAY PRINCESS - She has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the strongest in this field.
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