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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
March 2, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
2-Rockabillycockshut (5/2)-This 5-year-old mare has been in tall cotton. Now drops to the level of its last picture on 1-12. Knows how to win and should be a main player versus this kind.
8-My Red Sea (7/5)-The post draw will make this a challenge but does get class relief and has been successful at this level. Benefits from a positive driver change in Ronnie Wrenn and even from the outside should land in a close-up seat in a field without much early speed.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
4-Lone Wolf (8/5)-This field is full of dull form and horses that don't like to win. The Team Smith 4-year-old is certainly not a model of consistency. But did show some improvement last time and if brings a top effort is most likely better than anyone else.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
2-Shes Cruising Home (7/2)-This mare has hit the board in 21 of 46 with 9 pictures and likes to race near the top. Aaron Merriman can work that type of trip and should be in the mix at the wire.
7-Royaltys Dreamer (4-1)-Rewarded connections with the top check against this type on 2-24. That win came from post 7 and took the long way around. Now comes right back at the same level and does good work here taking 12 pictures in 35 starts at Nfld.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
2-Mainline Charmer (7/2)-Team Kash entry had a rough trip in the last start, and faded as has been the case. This will be the 3rd start for the new connections and drops. Should be on the point or no worse than in the 2 hole off the gate. Either could work for a picture.
3-Hill Of A Night (4-1)-Fits with this crew and this is another that could come out on top with the right trip. Tyler Angus can get a cozy trip from this post. Could win on the engine or coming off cover.
7-Racing Glory (2-1)-Beat better than this from the 2-hole but was DQ'd and placed 3rd. Comes back in sequence, and gets a positive driver change in Merriman. Got an efficient 2-hole ride last time and will work harder with this post draw but will still respect chances.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
2,8/4/2,7/2,3,7
Total Bet=$12
All-Star $25K Exacta-Thon Picks: Gulfstream Park | Saturday
February 29, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering a $25,000 Exacta-Thon on Saturday’s massive day of racing at Gulfstream Park. The 14-race card that features Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes hopefuls in the Fountain of Youth Stakes will provide horseplayers an extra boost to their balance.
As you play Saturday’s Gulfstream races, give extra consideration to exacta bets. That’s because players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet who cash any exacta combination in at least 6 of the 14 Gulfstream races on Saturday will share in an additional $20,000 in free cash. The player(s) who hit the most exactas on the day will be rewarded with their share of an additional $5,000.
Bonuses paid in last week’s Exacta-Thon at Oaklawn featured $338.99 in accounts of those who had winning exactas in at least 6 races. Seven customers shared $714.29 in the pursuit of the most exactas on the day.
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Gulfstream Park // Race 1 // Handicapper: Jeremy Plonk
Notable: #6 Thornbury gets back to a preferred turf surface where his half-brother Tiz a Slam excelled and earned just shy of $1 million. The 9 furlongs should be beautifully suited. Projecting the kind of price that would merit the win play, but could be an interesting wheel top and bottom in the exactas for promo players.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Wheel 6-ALL ($11)
Back-wheel ALL-6 ($11)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 2 // Handicapper: Brian Nadeau
Notable: It’s my Best Bet time in a stellar MSW, as #9 Jefferson Street returns with bullets off a fast 3rd in his lone start on debut in September and seems primed to make a splash. Clearly #1 Big City is the one to beat after hitting the board in the two fastest MSWs of the meet, though the rail hurts, while #6 Acclaimed Victor blew the start at Tampa and will improve.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 9-1 ($2)
Part-Wheel 9 with 6,3 ($2)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 3 // Colonel Liam Stakes // Handicapper: Jeremy Plonk
Notable: #9 Triple Espresso may be the best finisher in a race that appears to have a reasonably fast pace with #4 Tocayo joined by stretch-out sprinters #3 Okiro and #6 Silent Heart. But visually I loved the race by #5 Abrumar last time from a difficult post that day, racing between horses much of the trip without a breather and able to finish with flair late.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 5-9 ($2)
Part-Wheel 5 with 3,4,6,7,8 ($5)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 4 // Handicapper: Brian Nadeau
Notable: The way #9 Congruent is training says he’s going to fire a big shot off the layoff in his first for Saffie, and his best was a Tapeta win at TP. The speed of #10 Exact Estimate beat #2 Skyro last time, but the added ground might not be ideal for the former, and the latter had trouble too.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 9 with 2,1,10 ($3)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 5 // Handicapper: Brian Nadeau
Notable: An inside draw makes #2 J P Hellish appealing off a big 2nd in his first turf start for Drexler. Conversely, the wide draw hurts #10 Indestructible, though getting out of graded/group stakes may negate it. Respect the consistency of returnee #5 English Bee, though he may need this.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 2,10 with 2,10,5,9 ($6)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 6 // Handicapper: Brian Nadeau
Notable: Not trying to beat G2 winner #5 Kingsbarns in his return, as he found a soft spot and lays over these on class. Getting Lasix back makes 6-Khozeiress a step-up candidate, while #9 Positive Review should like the cutback.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 5 with 6,9,4 ($3)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 7 // Mac Diarmida Stakes // Handicapper: Jeff Siegel
Notable: #3 Headline News is a lightly raced and progressive Curlin gelding trying stakes competition and a marathon trip for the first time. His middle distance numbers are strong and his stalking, grinding style from a comfortable three-hole draw should be very effective under these conditions. Proven marathoner #7 Tawny Port (6-1) likely will inherit a soft stalking trip behind the committed front runner #1 Main Event (8-1) and these two could take the field a very long way. I’ll use these 3 and press the top pick for additional plays.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 3-7-1 ($6)
Part-Wheel 3 with 7,1 ($2)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 8 // Herecomesthebride Stakes // Handicapper: Jeff Siegel
Notable: #3 Ozara (Ire) is rapidly improving and is on the verge of becoming a major player in her division. Perfect in two starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course, the Irish-bred filly in Christophe Clement’s barn has good tactical speed and an electric turn of foot, and with good racing luck she should extend her winning streak to three. #7 Life’s an Audible finished second to our top pick in the Ginger Brew Stakes two runs back and then confirmed the form with a subsequent score in the Sweetest Chant S. last month. These two appear head and shoulders above the rest.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 3-7 ($2)
Straight 3-7 ($1)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 9 // Davona Dale Stakes // Handicapper: Jeff Siegel
Notable: #3 Just F Y I makes her seasonal debut in a one-turn mile stakes that projects to have a quick enough early pace to set things up nicely for her late kick. Unbeaten in three starts, the champion juvenile filly of 2023 has trained well enough to be plenty fit off the bench for the Bill Mott barn, which boasts exceptional stats with the layoff angle. #2 Leslie’s Rose is unbeaten in two starts and is fast on figures, though she projects to be under pressure from her inside draw. #6 Queen’s Martini is the most dangerous of the deep closers and should have plenty of help up front.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 3 with 2,6 ($2)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 10 // The Very One Stakes // Handicapper: Ron Nicoletti
Notable: #10 R Calli Kim, my best bet on the card, is a stakes winner at the distance and turns back after rallying to finish 2nd in the 12-furlong G3 La Prevoyante, despite getting bumped.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 10 with 6,7 ($2)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 11 // Gulfstream Park Mile // Handicapper: Jeremy Plonk
Notable: A slow early pace gives track and distance winner #5 Tumbarumba the edge while still in peak form. #2 Wit is working bullets for the return and looms a danger, while #1 Castle Chaos is consistent with his late run and #4 Il Miracolo owning the strongest company lines in the race.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-wheel 5 with 2,1,4 ($3)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 12 // Canadian Turf Stakes // Handicapper: Brian Nadeau
Notable: It’s Longshot time with #1 Saratoga Flash in the G3 Canadian Turf, as he’s a Lone F in a paceless race. Don’t sleep on #4 Turf King off the layoff for Brown, who is aces at improving them from 3-to-4. They have to beat defending champ #3 Emmanuel, but last year he had a prep, and this year he’s off an August layoff.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-Box 1 with 4,3,6 ($6)
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Gulfstream Park // Race 13 // Honey Fox Stakes // Handicapper: Ron Nicoletti
Notable: My longshot play of the day is #8 Mohawk Trail, who is a graded stakes winner when stretching from a sprint to a route, should sit an ideal stalk/close trip behind the hot pace expected.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-Box 8 with 6,3 ($4)
Gulfstream Park // Race 14 // Fountain of Youth Stakes // Handicapper: Jeremy Plonk
Notable: Inside, early speed is very effective in 1-1/16 miles races at Gulfstream, so pace players like #5 Dornoch, #3 Victory Avenue and #1 Speak Easy will get first run at the Fountain of Youth. #8 Locked will vie for favoritism but may need some pace help.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-box 5 with 1,3 ($4)
Straight 5-8 ($1)
Race of the Week: $200K Gulfstream Park Mile | Saturday, March 2
February 28, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The 1/ST Racing Tour rolls into Gulfstream Park this Saturday for Fountain of Youth Day's 14-race card. Eight additional stakes support the key Florida Derby and Triple Crown prep, including the Gulfstream Park Mile in Race 11.
Be sure to take part in Saturday's Exacta-Thon promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. On Gulfstream Park's card, hit exactas in 6 or more races and claim your share of $20,000 in bonus money amongst other players on those two platforms who also nail the required number of bets. Plus, the player who hits the exacta on the most races on the card wins $5,000. Bonuses paid in last week’s Exacta-Thon at Oaklawn featured $338.99 in accounts of those who had winning exactas in at least 6 races. Seven customers shared $714.29 in the pursuit of the most exactas on the day.
Field Depth:
Grade 3 winners in the lineup include WIT, IL MIRACOLO and TUMBARUMBA, the first pair of which also are Grade 1-placed. Stakes-placed competitors entered include STEAL SUNSHINE, GILMORE and CASTLE CHAOS. The classiest company lines may belong to IL MIRACOLO with a slight edge here on strength of schedule.
Pace:
This 1-turn mile lacks a true, blue front-runner. TUMBARUMBA could be fastest of the bunch and has hustling rider Luis Saez. TICKING has shown some early foot against easier competition and figures to be forward, if not on the lead itself. This race should have a modest pace and give those near the front a distinct advantage.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-CASTLE CHAOS: Nose runner-up at 27-1 in the Hooper, splitting Gulfstream Park Mile returnees TUMBARUMBA and STEAL SUNSHINE. Consistent sort since returning from a year break last June, landing 7 straight trifecta finishes. John Velazquez takes over aboard the Cigar Mile third-place finisher.
#2-WIT: Flashy 2021 juvenile at Saratoga has had a trio of extended layoffs in his career that have stunted his progress. He returns from an October break with a series of bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs for Todd Pletcher, indicating he could fire fresh. He's 1-for-2 in his prior layoff reappearances, winning the 2022 Bay Shore first time back. Distance should suit him well.
#3-STEAL SUNSHINE: Motoring best late in the Hooper when coming up three-quarters of a length short to return rivals TUMBRARUMBA and CASTLE CHAOS. He got a faster pace that day than this one projects, so his task of reeling those in likely becomes more difficult. Finished fifth in this race a year ago, but appears to be going better now than then.
#4-IL MIRACOLO: Big-race veteran of the 2023 Florida Derby series, Belmont Stakes, Pennsylvania Derby and then battles with elders in the Fayette and Clark. Probably too close to a quality pace in the Pegasus World Cup when fading in that one, but it certainly was a tougher spot as its 1-2 finishers came back last week to run big races in the $20 million Saudi Cup. He's got some pace versatility, which will come in handy in a race with a tricky tempo read to it.
#5-TUMBARUMBA: Caught him at a very nice 8-1 mutual in the Fred W. Hooper on Pegasus World Cup Day, so he's no stranger performing on the big stages and around larger crowds. His Hooper and Ellis Park Derby wins both came at this mile trip and he's had 3 works right on cue since his last win to indicate he's on schedule and likely holding form. Pace edge here makes him stronger.
#6-SHAQ DIESEL: Enters off back-to-back, photo-finish victories at Tampa and Gulfstream against easier competition. David Fawkes trainee will try to strike while the iron is hot with strong records over the track and distance. Progressing nicely in all 3 starts since coming to this barn after a summer break.
#7-TICKING: Upset Jan. 20 allowance at 42-1 odds, earning his third local dirt win in 6 starts. Didn't make the stakes ascension previously when tried on turf and synthetic, we'll find out where he fits in the local dirt stakes ranks. A rather soft pace up front appears to be to his liking.
#8-GILMORE: Well-beaten seventh in the Hooper, he needs to make up more than 10 lengths on a couple of his rematched rivals before even considering the new faces. Second to superb sprinter Sibelius in his previous start was much more endearing, but it's been a chilly Championship Meet for trainer Brendan Walsh at Gulfstream.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TUMBARUMBA has no excuses in terms of the early pace and has trifecta finishes in 6 of his last 7 starts, including 4 wins.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
CASTLE CHAOS has 7 straight top-3 finishes, including 27-1, 32-1 and 36-1 prices during that span.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Attacking the exactas with the extra Exacta-Thon promotional incentives. $40 exacta TUMBARUMBA with WIT. $30 exacta part-wheel TUMBARUMBA with IL MIRACOLO and CASTLE CHAOS ($60).
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #8
Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes #6 Notice Me Too She looks to be coming into this well enough, so get a look at her on the track ahead of time. Not sure we're going to be writing home about the depth of this race, so she may not have to be a star to land it first out. #3 She's Cool She had an even run around the track in the Ellis debut last summer, but she might be better with some additional maturity and wouldn't be a surprise here. #2 Need a Bit of Luck No clue whether she or #7 Frosty Vi might be live, but they check some of the same boxes as the top choice does. Take a look. Race Summary Notice Me Too debuts with what feels like a progressive enough worktab, and she's meeting form on paper that isn't very memorable.
Fair Grounds - Race #10
Picks Notes #10 Neat Don't feel great about this race staying on the turf after a sloppy Friday and more rain in the forecast, but he sure feels like the right one if this stays on the grass. His turf route form has been exceptional, and he just drilled a Sam Houston stakes group by better than five. Fun turf talent. #3 Bear River He wasn't totally embarrassed by a potential future star last time out, and he could be one to benefit if this race comes over to the main. Think he's interesting enough. #6 Yo Daddy Think the Desormeaux barn has a couple of interesting players if this comes over, and this guy will be getting a class test while rising in reliable form. Could be heading in the right direction. Race Summary Neat is probably tough if this goes on the turf, as he has done nothing wrong going long on the grass and should be able to handle these with anything like his last.
Picks Notes #1 Budro Talking He hasn't won in a bit, but his form is pretty reliable in a spot where that is not the case for all of them. Mild worry about the race flow, but I think he'll show up late. #8 Jack Bob and Larry He's back up in class after a decent effort last time out, and he landed a share in a Louisiana-bred stakes race around two turns here a couple years ago. Some price appeal on the stretchout. #4 Highland Creek Tactical type doesn't always punch home, but he figures to be in a great spot off the turn and might be able to grind on for another share. Race Summary Budro Talking should be moving well late, and I'm hoping to get Jack Bob and Larry in the frame at a decent price while moving around two turns.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #1
Laurel Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #4 MARTHA’S HEART (9-2) Appears rounding to winning race with second-time Lasix. #1 HARMONIZING (8-5) Bid to stretch lead off three-month layoff but couldn’t sustain bid. #2 THREE’S A CROWD (12-1 Worked well from Pimlico gate, showed late interest in debut. Race Summary MARTHA’S HEART showed marked improvement with Lasix but couldn’t fend off the 9-to-5 favorite or the 9-2 first-time starter who finished second at Penn National. She bid 3-wide at the quarter pole but flattened out late. Value remains for a win and place bet and 1-2-4 exacta box.
Laurel Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #4 COAL’S MAGNOLIA (9-2) Took the money but didn’t run much in 6F debut, adds blinkers. #5 ARROGATE’S DREAM (2-1 ‘Angled out with pursuit’ of pace-controlling winner in route, ran third. #3 BEST WORST IDEA (12-1) Lots of thirds on resume at various distances, fave off bullet work in latest. Race Summary COAL’S MAGNOLIA drew more attention than her work tab warranted first out, but she broke slow and was bothered by an inner rival a few strides out of the gate. Maybe she awakens with blinkers and an extra furlong to run against a couple main contenders who beat her. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #7 UP AGAINST IT (3-1) Loves Laurel, loves winning, didn’t let bump by drifting rival slow him down. #2 OXIDE (6-1) Late surge for repeat victory at one mile, stands 4-for-10 at this distance. #5 MUSICAL HEART (9-2) Drifted into top one, earned top speed fig in defeat, third start of cycle. Race Summary UP AGAINST IT sustained a 4-wide rally from the far turn to the finish to win for the third time in his last four starts and surpass a quarter million in Laurel Park earnings. He’s 2-for-2 at the distance and should get an ideal pace flow to mount another winning rally. Bet to win and place.
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