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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/23/24
March 23, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Saturday, March 23, 2024
RACE 1
7-GHOST COAST
Degree of confidence: C+
• Was a beaten choice facing similar foes in last two outings.
• Has prior form that is good enough; picks up J. Hernandez.
• Outside draw, needs to drop over early and get some cover.
Others to consider: 1-Precision Strike.
RACE 2
5-DISOBEY
Degree of confidence: B-
• Returned from a 27 month layoff to graduate in convincing style.
• Pressed pace, came away when ready, decent chance right back.
• Three nice breezes since raced, has room for further improvement.
Others to consider: 3-Curry.
RACE 3
6-I’M A LUCKY MAN
Degree of confidence: B+
• Drops in class but remains above claim level, a perfect spot.
• Solid on speed figures and hails from the 25% M. Glatt barn.
• Has good early speed but may be most effective if held up.
Others to consider: 4-Derecho Dandy; 8-Constant Conflict.
RACE 4
1-MR. BIG BUCKS
Degree of confidence: B-
• First time routing, lands the good rail, may try gate-to-wire tactics.
• Overmatched in starter allowance and returns to his proper level.
• Game winner over this strip two races back and earned a solid fig.
Others to consider: 3-Handsome Harry; 5-Winning Big.
RACE 5
2-LEYAS CANDY
Degree of confidence: C+
• Good enough but has burned money in six of his last seven races.
• Shows two nice breezes since raced so we know he is healthy.
• Tries another rider switch and projects to enjoy a trouble free trip.
Others to consider: 1-Queen’s Code; 7-McGregor Lake.
RACE 6
4-IN THEORY
Degree of confidence: A
• Blazing preview, then brought $800,00 at the 2023 May Sale
• Baffert-trained filly has breezed like she is loaded with talent.
• Trainer-jockey combo hits at 29%; barn 26% with first timers.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 7
5-PLANETARIO (BRZ)
Degree of confidence: B
• Took the overland route when second in the San Marcos Stakes.
• Meanwhile, Missed the Cut scraped paint and edge clear late.
• They meet again over 12 furlongs; the one with the best trip wins.
Others to consider: 4-Missed the Cut.
RACE 8
5-YELLOW BRICK
Degree of confidence: C+
• Left his previous form behind with a fast, highly rated sprint score.
• Stretches out, can improve again but might prefer one-turn racing.
• Has a steady, grinding style of racing; needs to be prominent early.
Others to consider: 3-Cowboy Mike; 1-Hawker.
RACE 9
6-RUNAMILEINMYSHOES
Degree of confidence: A-
• Two recent sprint prep races; ready to stretch out and win.
• Traffic trouble in recent dash, got clear but was too late.
• Style and pedigree suggest added distance will suit her fine.
Others to consider: none.
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
March 23, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
2-Osceola Hanover (5/2)-Did good work at Nfld over the years (25-5-5-5) but recent form hasn't been anything to get excited about. Probably needs a suck-around trip to win and with this post draw that could happen.
4-Rockin Requiem (9/2)-Took the long way around in last and that trip didn't end well. Makes the 2nd straight start at this class and could land on the point. Should be in play to book a win and knows her way to the Nfld winner's circle (71-16-7-5).
6-Sea Rose (5-1)-Needs a trip to take a picture and will get a new set of hands in Billy Davis Jr. Gets post relief, comes back in sequence and this could be GO time.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
4-Great Guns (5/2)-Beaten chalk was just okay in his 1st start in town. Will look for an aggressive drive and it wouldn't be a shock if Chris Lems tries to wire the field. Could make amends and be a better price tonight than 6/5.
6-Coffee N' Donats (3-1)-Fits but winning has been a big problem this year 0-9. This time, gets a ++ driver change in Ronnie Wrenn and that could be enough to seal the deal for a picture.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
1-How About Murph (6-1)-Finished 2nd in the 1st start off the bench for new connections. Romped by 17 lengths before being put away on 2-15. Seems like there was an issue and last week tried to go gate to wire in the slop. Could be overlooked and will take a swing with Luke Hanners from the rail.
2-Hill Of A Night (5/2)-This mare with Aaron Merriman at the controls will probably be bet down. Could win by open lengths or not hit the board. Need to use but can't trust.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
1-Anne Bonney N (2-1)-Raced well coming off the bench on 3-16. Not loving the short price as the veteran mare bumps up. But will respect as there isn't much depth to this group. Can't leave off the ticket, Davis Jr has the gate speed to control the mile or at least get a pocket ride.
2-Carmen N The Devil (6-1)-Will look for another price from the Looney barn as this gal finally draws inside which should help. Has won 8 of 32 at Nfld and could cash the top check with a sharp steer.
5-Bad Tigress (4-1)-The 9-year-old wins about as often as the seasons change. But gets Wrenn for the 2nd straight time and put in a decent try in the 1st race back in town. Should offer a fair price and will rely on favorable trip.
$1 Late Pick 4
2,4,6/4,6/1,2/1,2,5
Total Bet=$36
Race of the Week: Beholder Mile at Santa Anita | Saturday
March 6, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Santa Anita features a trio of graded stakes races on its Saturday card, none bigger than the Grade 1 Beholder Mile for older fillies and mares. It wraps an all-stakes pick three that starts with the Santa Ysabel for Oaks hopefuls and the San Simeon for turf sprinters. Post time for the Race 8 Beholder Mile is set for 7 pm ET / 4 pm PT.
Field Depth:
ADARE MANOR is the lone Grade 1 winner in the 9-runner lineup. INTERSTATEDAYDREAM, TURNERLOOSE and WINDOW SHOPPING are Grade 2 winners. Both DESERT DAWN and KIRSTENBOSCH are Grade 3 winners who've had Grade 1 placings. In terms of most consistently strong company lines, an edge to ADARE MANOR and DESERT DAWN.
Pace:
ADARE MANOR's 5-race win streak in 2023 was nearly all wire-to-wire, so you know her intent. Eastern invader GREEN UP has sprint speed if called up for it, and dazzling sprint winner SWEET AZTECA is sure to be heard from early in her 2-turn debut. The pace should be above-average to fast. A horse with a solid finishing kick should have the set-up to perform at her best if good enough.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-COFFEE TO BED: Jockey Mike Smith has won the Beholder Mile 7 times in his Hall of Fame career, 3 times aboard the legend Zenyatta and twice with Azeri among those. She likely travels mid-pack against these early despite the rail draw and needs to come with more run than she did when second in the local prep, the La Canada. Least preferred here of the pair of Richard Mandella trainees, preferring WINDOW SHOPPING.
#2-ADARE MANOR: Millionaire returns off a November layoff from the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where her 5-race win streak was snapped. She's a Santa Anita ace at 10: 6-3-0 and a perfect 3-for-3 at the mile trip. Trainer Bob Baffert dominated last Sunday with 3 graded stakes victories on the SA card. The last 2 times she returned from a layoff, she ran poorly in the Cotillion and then was beaten 4-5 favorite in allowance company. Thought she was pulling early and eager in her workout videos at XBTV and not jumping off the screen to be bet. Will take chance against her.
#3-GREEN UP: First of 2 Todd Pletcher raiders for the Beholder Mile, and note that cross-country shippers have won this race 2 of the last 3 years (A Mo Reay last year for Brad Cox, Swiss Skydiver for Kenny McPeek in 2021). The lightly raced 5-year-old made only 2 starts last year and 8 in her career, winning 5. She's worked in company twice recently with Beholder Mile uncoupled stablemate Interstatedaydream, and clearly looked the better of the pair to be via XBTV. Ran a good third at Keeneland last year off an even longer layoff. Capable.
#4 DESERT DAWN: Classy, consistent sort for Phil D'Amato should get more pace help than she did in winning the La Canada, and that never hurts. While she beat ADARE MANOR in 2022, her 3 matchups last year went to her rival all 3 times. Form is similar to last year when fourth in this race. Must respect even if Flavien Prat hops off to ride SWEET AZTECA on Saturday.
#5 INTERSTATEDAYDREAM: Beat ADARE MANOR in the 2022 Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico, but a lot has changed since then. The former Brad Cox trainee had a solid '23 while winning 3 of 7 and was sold in November ... only to be brought back to the races this winter under new ownership and new guidance from Todd Pletcher. Consistent mare was well spotted around the country finding spots below the top cusp and this will be a taller task for her. On video, preferred what I saw from Pletcher workmate GREEN UP in their tandem drills in Florida.
#6 SWEET AZTECA: Rising local sprinter turned heads with a 12-length romp February 2, her second victory in 3 career starts. Will she go farther? She's in the right hands on 2 fronts. Jockey Flavien Prat opts to ride and has won this race the past 2 years. Trainer Michael McCarthy was able to stretch the speed of eventual champion sprinter Ce Ce to win this race in 2020. She's got a miler pedigree, so distance could be achievable. I would have liked to have seen more in her gallop-out last time, but that's only for my stretch-out evaluation and not necessarily an indictment that she won't go farther.
#7 KIRSTENBOSCH: Trainer John Sadler has 3 Beholder Mile victories and will seek a fourth with this veteran making her 20th lifetime start. She was fifth in this race last year at 35-1 odds and has similar form for the reappearance. Her last 4 starts have been sprints, and my estimation has been she's a better closing sprinter than a router, even if she did win the La Canada around 2 turns 14 months ago.
#8 TURNERLOOSE: Winless in 4 west coast starts since moving from Brad Cox to Phil D'Amato, she's primarily a turfer and has lost 11 in a row. Tough to see her taking this.
#9 WINDOW SHOPPING: Wildly inconsistent filly has shown flashes of brilliance in limited appearances. Comes off an October layoff working very well on video at XBTV and is giving off vibes that Richard Mandella, who won this race with the eventual namesake Beholder in 2016, has her right again. Ran massive off her seasonal return last March and is one to watch here despite a tough post draw. She'll lay back and make a rally, so perhaps won't lose too much ground on the first turn.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
DESERT DAWN has been in the superfecta in 10 of her last 12, is in her form cycle and has a running style that makes her a factor regardless how the pace shapes up. She may not win, but no one feels more "top-4" than her.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
WINDOW SHOPPING has a chance to pop at a very nice number if the best version of her shows up.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win WINDOW SHOPPING. $10 exacta key-box WINDOW SHOPPING with GREEN UP, SWEET AZTECA ($40).
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park
PURCHASE
Sam Houston Race Park - Race 7 Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 4:05P SAN JACINTO TURF S. - FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $500. $2,000 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. THE PURSE TO BE DISTRIBUTED: $1,000 TO ALL STARTERS SIXTH THROUGH LAST. THE REMAINING BALANCE TO BE DISTRIBUTED: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO THE SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2023 - 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 23, 2023 ALLOWED 5 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) THIS RACE WILL BE LIMITED TO TWELVE STARTERS WITH PREFERENCE TO HORSES WITH HIGHEST EARNINGS IN 2023-2024 AT TIME OF ENTRY. HORSES NOT DRAWING A STARTING POSITION IN THE GATE WILL RECEIVE A REFUND OF THE ENTRY FEE. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * IMALUCKYCHARM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TUDELA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NO MAS TEQUILA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAHITIAN BREEZE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IMALUCKYCHARM TUDELA NO MAS TEQUILA TAHITIAN BREEZE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSKY ROCKER Front-runner IMALUCKYCHARM Front-runner GRACIE'S KITTEN Stalker TUDELA Stalker MISSINGYOUCRAZY Stalker NO MAS TEQUILA Stalker TURN ON THE BLING Stalker TAHITIAN BREEZE Trailer BLOOD ORANGE Trailer REASON OVER RICHES Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE
Cross Country Pick Four - Race 4 Stakes • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 99 • Purse: $200,000 • Post: 5:22P HOT SPRINGS S. OP - R8 - THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $1,000 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,000 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES AT A FEE OF $2,500 WHICH QUALIFIES TO START. $200,000 GUARANTEED. AFTER PAYING 2.5% OFORIGINAL PURSE TO THE OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING 6TH THROUGH LAST, 60% OF THE REMAINING PURSE WILL BE PAID TO OWNER(S) OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 4% TO FIFTH. WEIGHTS: 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $50,000 TWICE ALLOWED 3 LBS.; $50,000 ONCE 5 LBS. (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES.) IN ALLOWANCE STAKES STARTING PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HORSES THAT HAVE ACCUMULATED THE HIGHEST EARNINGS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. NOMINATIONS CLOSED SATURDAY, MARCH 9, 2024 WITH 38 NOMINATIONS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * NASH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CARBONE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" design ation or an "L" designation. OTTO THE CONQUEROR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. COUNT DRACULA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. NASH CARBONE OTTO THE CONQUEROR MR FILLIP COUNT DRACULA
Line
Class
Speed
FigureOTTO THE CONQUEROR Front-runner NASH Front-runner CARBONE Front-runner MR FILLIP Front-runner COUNT DRACULA Front-runner FROST FREE Front-runner MENA Front-runner FOOTPRINT Trailer MAGIC GRANT Alternator/Non-contender
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:48pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 62
Rating:
#10 MUSTHAVEBEENLOVE (ML=5/2)
#4 ESTRELLA KIARA (ML=9/2)
MUSTHAVEBEENLOVE - Was in a $35,000 Maiden Claiming race at Gulfstream Park last out. That affair had a class figure of 71 and she is moving down in this event. A certain win candidate. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your cash onto this jockey/conditioner combination. This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Iorio gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Last raced at Gulfstream Park carrying 5 lbs more. The lower weight assigned right here in this race should serve her well. This filly shows a classic pattern of layoff, two sprints, and stretching to a route today. ESTRELLA KIARA - The Dec 31st race at Tampa Bay Downs was at a class level of (73). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so she should be in a good position. I know the barn is serious today. The filly gets Lasix for the first time.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TOURIST STYLE (ML=7/2), #1 DANNEEL (ML=5/1), #9 FUMBLEROOSKI (ML=8/1),
TOURIST STYLE - 59/55/51, are the lessening Equibase speed figures for this entrant. DANNEEL - This filly probably needs a more hospitable pace configuration to make her closing move. Unlikely that the fig she recorded on Feb 4th will hold up in this event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #10 MUSTHAVEBEENLOVE is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 82
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 10 STAY FAITHFUL 20/1
# 8 DO IT DIVI 6/1
# 4 FEDAH 12/1
My choice in this contest is STAY FAITHFUL especially at such a decent 20/1. Progeny of this sire have produced decent profits recently in their first asking contest. DO IT DIVI - Decent dividends have been scored by players following this sire's progeny in their first attempts. Has to be given consideration given one of the best sires around. FEDAH - Don't overlook this animal as the trainer has produced quite good profits with 1st time starters.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 91
FOR MAIDENS, FOUR AND FIVE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, IF FOR $45,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 GET KRAKEN 4/1
# 7 GHOST COAST 5/2
# 1 PRECISION STRIKE 2/1
GET KRAKEN is the most favorable bet in this race. With Pereira on top him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out quickly in this competition. Could beat this field given the 90 Equibase Speed Figure garnered in his last outing. A solid 97 avg class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group of horses in this race. GHOST COAST - His 86 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase speed figs in this race. Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the front end recently. PRECISION STRIKE - The average class fig of 83 makes this horse hard to beat. Should be given consideration in this race if only for the very good Equibase Speed Fig put up in the last contest.
Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 4:04pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 72
Rating:
#7 ELECTRIC CHARGE (ML=6/1)
#9 REGIMENTAL (ML=9/2)
#2 WOLF HUNTER (ML=4/1)
ELECTRIC CHARGE - Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the class ability to make his presence felt. That 77 fig this gelding garnered in his last affair tells me he's a big time player this time around. Recent speed figures show solid pattern of improvement. REGIMENTAL - Navas was aboard this colt in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Utilizing this jockey/trainer combination is a good choice. Rodriguez drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this thoroughbred has a darn good chance at this level. WOLF HUNTER - Was in a Maiden Special race at Kentucky Downs in the last race. That clash had a class rating of 83 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain serious competitor. Just see his last speed rating, 77. That one looks good in this field. Last raced at Kentucky Downs with a poor post position. I swiped some data from The Brain, and his computer says the inside should be a big help to this one today. Has a decent chance to break maiden moving to the main track right here in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GIANNO (ML=7/2), #4 DEFIANT MALICE (ML=5/1), #6 PERFORMANCE PLUS (ML=8/1),
GIANNO - Would have to move up off that ninth place finish last time to make an impact here. Garnered a run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on November 24th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number. DEFIANT MALICE - The finish position of eighth in the last race shows me that this equine may be going off form. This runner ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's event running that number. PERFORMANCE PLUS - Looked like he was in good form on Feb 22nd. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. Earned a mediocre speed rating last time out in a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race on February 22nd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #7 ELECTRIC CHARGE is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,7,9] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [2,7,9] with [2,7,9] with [2,4,6,7,9] with [2,4,6,7,9] Total Cost: $36
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