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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/24/24
March 24, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Sunday, March 24, 2024
RACE 1
1-MYSTIC SPIRIT
Degree of confidence: B+
• Shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle from the rail.
• Pedigree suggests this one mile trip on grass should suit her fine.
• Cal-bred gelding produced significant improvement on numbers.
Others to consider: 6. J. Dutton.
RACE 2
5-MAGIC ACCOUNT
Degree of confidence: C+
• Has very little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claiming dirt sprint.
• Displayed good zip before fading in only prior outing facing tougher.
• Returns with blinkers; work tab looks decent but contains a few gaps.
Others to consider: 4. Getemdusty.
RACE 3
6-FORGIVING SPIRIT
Degree of confidence: B+
• Four time winner over the local lawn is protected today by P. Miller.
• Big try in claimer over this course and distance earlier this month.
• Lovely outside draw in small field, guaranteed an ideal stalking trip.
Others to consider: 5-Virat.
RACE 4
3-MOBE TOWN
Degree of confidence: B-
• Strong runner-up facing similar over track and distance last start.
• Was eight lengths clear of the rest while earning a sharp figure.
• However, already has had nine chances; not be one to count on.
Others to consider: 4-Spend It All.
RACE 5
1-CROSBY BEACH
Degree of confidence: B
• Raised in class by new stable after a $50,000 claim, lands good rail.
• Beaten favorite in last pair but numbers are strong and consistent.
• Two time winner over the local lawn and picks up the leading rider.
Others to consider: 4-Cathkin Peak (Ire); 6-Carmelita’s Man.
RACE 6
1-LAKE SUPERIOR
Degree of confidence: C+
• Five runner field, each with a chance, so this should be a spread race.
• Lands the rail and likely will be sent early to establish the running.
• Million dollar son of Quality Road may be starting to figure things out.
Others to consider: 3-Ashcraft; 2-Theismann; 5-Duran.
RACE 7
7-CLOVISCONNECTION
Degree of confidence: A-
• Thoroughly genuine and consistent; handles any surface or distance.
• Been away since fast stakes score on dirt at Fresno last fall; good works.
• Catches a field without much zip and projects to be the controlling speed.
Others to consider: 6-Johnny Podres.
RACE 8
1-HIGHLANDS
Degree of confidence: B+
• Given an easy run when finishing on her own courage in recent dash.
• Stretches out today to her best trip and should be much more serious.
• Favorable rail draw ensures an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip.
Others to consider: 6-Sea Dancer; 9-Visually.
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
March 24, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has an 11-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8 (7:55 PM PST)
3-Rockin The Dragon (3-1)-James Kennedy is back for tonight's race and should relish the company. Should be forwardly placed throughout and this looks like a spot to shine.
5-Rockin Sage (6-1)-Will look for a price as Brett Erickson grabs the lines and this mare likes to race on the point or near the top of the stack. Has trouble finishing miles but could get the lead without burning much gas against this field. Will look for an efficient trip. This pilot worked that plan and won with a longshot on Friday night.
Race 9 (8:15 PM PST)
1-Itsonlyrocknroll A (8-1)-Gets a positive driver change in Jim Lackey and he can work a suck-around trip. Could offer a big price and will use from the inside.
3-Aime Hanover (5-1)-Beaten chalk was in the hunt in last but the trip wasn't the best. Jacob Cutting will steer the Goulet entry for the 2nd straight time. This pilot should work a smoother journey and might be able to take a picture at a square price.
6-Go Viral (2-1)-Bumps up a TM level after crushing the last group by 8 lengths. Not sure how much more difficult this will be, and the race probably goes through the Wilkinson trainee.
Race 10 (8:35 PM PST)
1-Prom Queen (10-1)-Came the back half in 56.2 in the 1st start for the Castillo barn. Gets James Kennedy between the pipes this time and the mare probably has more to offer.
2-Senga Nightmare (7/2)-Fits, is competitive and with a sharp steer could cash the top check. Ryan Grundy needs to find some live cover and be close to the leaders turning for the wire.
6-Hunky Dory (5-1)-The Plano barn has been clicking and steps up after a sharp win. Has won 7 of 16 here and can dance with this kind. Came 2nd at this TM level 2 back and is well worth using at the ML price.
Race 11 (8:55 PM PST)
3-Love To Flirt (3-1)-Team Pacheco trainee appears to have an edge on others but needs a smooth trip. Has one move and it needs to be used at the right time. This isn't a race where much value is presented and from the inside the 4-year-old should be in play.
4-Seek And Destroy (2-1)-Similar to the one above, another short price but there are some differences. Rene Goulet is a more seasoned pilot, and this will be 3rd start after requalifying because of breaking issues. Put in flat lines in the last 2 races and should be a main player if minds manners and gets a decent drive.
0.20 Pick 4
3,5/1,3,6/1,2,6/3,4
Total Bet=$7.20
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #4
Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes #7 Summer in Adriane Think you can make a case for a lot of them in a really fun race, and this guy looks like one of the main players. He's got tactical pace, but I think he can rate enough to avoid getting caught up with a couple of the quicker players early on. Price might be honest enough. #3 Rock'n a Halo He'll get blinkers while getting back on the turf after that decent showing in the off-turf stakes run last out, and he landed his debut run against what feels like a decent bunch. One of the ones. #4 Tough Little Nut He might be ready enough to make some noise off the bench, and I think his form from last year might be a bit more competitive here than it looks at first glance. Intriguing. Race Summary Summer in Adriane might get a great trip while getting back around two turns, and he has been working regularly while waiting for a chance to get back in.
Fair Grounds - Race #15
Picks Notes #10 Pearl of Acclaim Was a little surprised to see him so far back off the splits last out, but he kicked on nicely and just missed. Guessing he's a bit more tactical if needed. #8 Wissam Sharaf He's back with blinkers for the new barn off the layoff, and the Monmouth debut puts him in line with the best of these if he's ready to bring something similar here. #2 Bettera I like that he's back up in class after a solid turf debut in what might be a pretty good race for the level -- the two who finished in front of him have both been back to win. Chance. Race Summary Pearl of Acclaim has shown a little versatility through two starts, and I and his last makes him one of the obvious players in here. Would want #9 Pilkington on the stretch tickets.
Picks Notes #1 Visionista She's probably a bit light for this group, but she's stepping up at the right time after a couple wins while working through her conditions. There might be enough pace lined up to give her a good run if she can settle and save ground before launching her finish. #7 A G's Charlotte Positional pace has traded decisions with many of these over the last year, and her better stuff obviously keeps her in the mix right back after the muddy stakes score here last out. First jump. #4 Basalt Street She has some competitive company lines, and she landed a short two-turn score at Delta two starts back. Not sure about this true route today while meeting a couple other forward players. Race Summary Visionista rises to try stakes company after a couple scores, and the setup might be there for her if all the potential pace shows up.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Oaklawn Park - Race 5 Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $48,000 • Post: 2:47P FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7, 2023. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 24, 2023 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 24, 2023 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * FLAGS UP: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest Tr ackMaster Power Rating. DERBY DATE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CIRCLE BACK JACK: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at leas t +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). FLAGS UP DERBY DATE CIRCLE BACK JACK
Line
Class
Speed
FigureGOLDEN LUNA Front-runner CHATTALOT Front-runner GAMBLER ROCKET Front-runner MEGATAP Front-runner FLAGS UP Trailer DERBY DATE Alternator/Trailer CIRCLE BACK JACK Alternator/Trailer DEFLATER Alternator/Non-contender CATHEDRAL BEACH Alternator/Non-contender WINDCRACKER Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner ParkPURCHASE
Fonner Park - Race 1 Claiming $5,000 • 4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $6,700 • Post: 1:30P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR NEBRASKA-BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MARINA: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than th e Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. MIDSUMMER SOIREE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 3 0 days. ANGIE'S REVRAC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FABULOSITY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post pos ition. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. MARINA MIDSUMMER SOIREE ANGIE'S REVRAC FABULOSITY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureMIDSUMMER SOIREE Front-runner MARINA Front-runner MUSTANGMAGNA Front-runner FABULOSITY Front-runner PIECE OF ME Front-runner DIXIE TRIXIE Front-runner ANGIE'S REVRAC Alternator/Stalker
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4 - Post: 1:48pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 61
Rating:
#8 DOUBLE WARRIOR (ML=8/1)
#9 SEAX (ML=7/2)
#2 IM STILL BRAVE (ML=8/1)
#5 CITY HUMOR (ML=12/1)
DOUBLE WARRIOR - Was in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race at Presque Isle Downs last time out. That clash had a class figure of 69 and he is moving down right here. A certain win candidate. He has the highest earnings per start. Take a good look at this horse. SEAX - Ran in the last race against a higher rated class of horses at Tampa Bay Downs. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. Looking over this gelding's PPs I see that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed rating that would be good enough to win today's race. This gelding's last rating is high enough to prove victorious here, I'll invest in him right back this time around. IM STILL BRAVE - Taking a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from his March 8th race at Tampa Bay Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the advantage. Lower weight assigned of -6. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this gelding falls into this category. CITY HUMOR - Ochoa has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. Horse had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the ability to make his presence felt.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 THAT MAGIC MOMENT (ML=5/2), #10 HORSESHOE PATSY (ML=6/1), #11 GRAND FESTIVAL (ML=8/1),
THAT MAGIC MOMENT - The morning-line choice is suspect here with the lack of works. HORSESHOE PATSY - No accomplishments for this racer in a short distance race over the last couple months tells me that this colt is in a tough situation GRAND FESTIVAL - The bang up job in the last race may knock this gelding off stride in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #8 DOUBLE WARRIOR to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 93
GP - R5 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 4 PALACE VIEW (IRE) 5/2
# 2 MISTER ABARRIO 2/1
# 7 HARRINGTON 15/1
I like PALACE VIEW (IRE) here. Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. With a sound jockey who has won at a formidable 22 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Some very strong numbers have been posted by this trainer's horses running at this distance and surface. MISTER ABARRIO - Shows formidable speed figs on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses in this race. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Maiden - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 71
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 YELL FIRE AGAIN 5/2
# 4 TORITO CASH CARTEL 7/2
# 5 CAVA JONA DASH 6/1
YELL FIRE AGAIN is the most favorable wager in this race. She is worth a look given that the trainer wins 19 percent of his races with two-year olds, which is unquestionably among the most competitive in the competition.
Fair Grounds - Race #10 - Post: 3:30pm - Stakes - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 95 Page Cortez S.
Rating:
#10 CHARLIE T (ML=6/1)
#4 RUE LALA (ML=8/1)
CHARLIE T - This trainer brings horses to the grass fit and ready to go, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions. Mare is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today. RUE LALA - Always watch out for the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always on the board. Wilson brings her back again. I advise you stick with this live mare.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 OVA CHARGED (ML=3/5),
OVA CHARGED - This probable favorite hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning drills since last race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CHARLIE T - When you wager serious money you want a race horse that is very consistent. This race horse fits the bill.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #10 CHARLIE T on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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