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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
March 31, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo wraps up the weekend with an 11-race card. The 0.20 Pick 4, with a $25,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 8. The sequence has a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8 (7:55 PM PST)
1-Dougsmonkeybusiness (5-1)-Jacob Cutting sticks here over the 5/7 and the 4-year-old does take on older. That shouldn't matter, can get an efficient trip and has done good work at CalX (18-8-5-1).
2-Officer Jim (3-1)-This veteran has been in too deep versus Open company but still can get the job done from time to time. Tonight, could be the "time" to come with a big try and can compete for a picture at this level.
3-Handsome Harvey (5/2)-Has battled hard against better and drops to a spot to shine. This is Luke Plano's choice over #8 and should be forwardly placed versus this company. May offer the best price compared to others and can close in a hurry.
Race 9 (8:15 PM PST)
2-Powderhouse (2-1)-Comes off a win, draws inside and is made the morning line chalk. Wouldn't want to leave off the ticket but hasn't solved this TM level yet. Not loving the short price and will use but will also lean on one other.
7-Helen's Girl (3-1)-Has won at this level but not for a while but should be a player. Does come off a good effort and loses Nick Roland who steers his own (1). Cutting gets the call and he has taken pictures with the mare before.
Race 10 (8:35 PM PST)
3-Snap Krackle Ntrot (9/5)-This trotter has hit the board in all 4 CalX starts and has recorded 2 wins. Usually stays on stride and should be there at the wire in a trotter/pacer mix master event.
7-DT Pet Attack (6-1)-Posted 6 wins last year, which is its lifetime total. Now, as a 5-year-old is 0-10 which is cause for pause but this was Plano's choice over #1. He was the regular pilot on the rail horse and now gets his 2nd straight steer on the Cisco trainee. Willing to stick with the driver's pick and could offer a solid price in what might be a chalky sequence.
Race 11 (8:55 PM PST)
6-Moonlit Night (3-1)-The entire field steps up for this affair which is always interesting. Has not seen battle since 12-15 but has done well at CalX (4-2-0-1), and its qualifier was okay on 3-24. Should be in the mix if 100% ready for this start.
7-Check Mark (5/2)-Mark hasn't shown up in the last 2 starts but did win a couple in a row before that and maybe this is wake up time. Could have his way with this field if comes up with the same effort as a victory 3 back.
0.20 Pick 4
1,2,3/2,7/3,7/6,7
Total Bet =$4.80
Gulfstream Mandatory Pick 6 Payout Sunday Analysis
March 30, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Gulfstream Park's mandatory payout in the $866,897 carryover pick 6 will be offered on Races 6-11 for Easter Sunday. Track officials anticipate more than $7 million in the pool.
Local expert handicapper Ron Nicoletti provides his race-by-race analysis and picks, and we've included his GP co-host Brian Nadeau's selections for a second opinion.
Race 6
3 LUCKY SCORE, who is a multiple graded stakes placed performer on the Woodbine turf, will hope to flaunt his class when he faces $62,500 optional claimers in his local debut for Mark Casse. The gelding gets the tepid nod in a wide-open start to the mandatory Rainbow 6. 4 FAR BRIDGE, who is 3-2-1-0 at this mile and a sixteenth distance, is making his first start since the series of graded stakes races going longer during his 3year-old campaign. Christophe Clement has Jose Ortiz returning on the son of English Channel. 1 DREAMS OF TOMORROW is hoping to win today on the turf after showing some late interest in a pair of $100,000 starter handicaps going a mile and 70 yards on the Tapeta. Shug McGaughey has Joel Rosario atop the four-time turf winner.
RON NICOLETTI SELECTIONS: 3-4-1
BRIAN NADEAU SELECTIONS: 5-4-3-1 (BEST LONGSHOT)
Race 7
1 BIG CITY is stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth after the trio of solid in the money finishes going seven furlongs. Jose D’Angelo has Joel Rosario atop the $300,000 son of City of Light. 9 MILITARY ROAD is stretching out around two turns after following his thirdplace finish behind Florida Derby participant Conquest Warrior in his one-mile debut with a second-place finish going eight furlongs last out. The concern for the son of Quality Road is the demanding outside post at this distance. 6 DERBY STREET is a $700,000 son of Street Sense debuting for Bill Mott with Lasix and a steady work tab showing at Payson Park. John Velazquez rides.
RON NICOLETTI SELECTIONS: 1-9-6 (BEST BET)
BRIAN NADEAU SELECTIONS: 1-7-9-8 BEST BET)
Race 8
1 ASHIMA is returning to the turf after the consistent campaign going around two turns on the Tapeta. Jose D’Angelo, 20% with the Tapeta to turf angle, has Irad managing the surface switch in another wide-open leg of the Rainbow 6. 8 BOOMIN’ BELLE, who showed speed sprinting on the Colonial Downs turf last summer, will try to do the same at a mile after setting the pace and finishing second going a mile and a sixteenth on the Tapeta last out. Mark Casse has Tyler doling out her speed. 9 GOATS ON A TREE, bred on both sides of the family tree to relish the turf, the daughter of Bolt d’Oro returns to the turf after back-to-back third place finishes on the Tapeta. Saffie Joseph Jr has Paco Lopez named to ride.
RON NICOLETTI SELECTIONS: 1-8-9
BRIAN NADEAU SELECTIONS: 2-3-1-4
Race 9
7 HOLIDAY FANTASY is wheeling back after responding in the first race after the claim by Julie Stormfelt with a second-place finish at this level and distance. Tyler Gaffalione rides. 9 CLASSIFY was given some time off after finishing a troubled fifth (checked) – as the favorite – at this level and distance during January. Saffie, 23% with this type of layoff, has Paco named to ride. 1 MAUNA KEA BOUND is another hoping to bounce back after following the well-meant second at this level and distance two starts back with a stalk-and-fade clunker last out. Bob Hess Jr has Joel Rosario managing the tough inside post.
RON NICOLETTI SELECTIONS: 7-9-1
BRIAN NADEAU SELECTIONS: 3-7-1-8
Race 10
9 ST. PATS DAY was impressive in victory when she shook off early pressure and drew clear to score at this level and distance. She is the speed of the speed with Paco at the controls. 6 DONTLOOKBACKATALL is making her first start since finishing a stalk the pace second in the $60,000 Glen Cove at Aqueduct in October. Trainer Christophe Clement has Jose Ortiz atop the versatile daughter of Peace and Justice, who could win from on or staking the pace.
5 WIDE WEST (IRE) breaks from an improved post after departing from the outside when finishing second behind the top choice last out. Tom Proctor has Edwin Gonzalez managing the rematch.
RON NICOLETTI SELECTIONS: 9-6-5
BRIAN NADEAU SELECTIONS: 5-6-9-8
Race 11
1 CREED’S GOLD is stretching out to a mile after encountering traffic problems both early and late when getting beat two lengths in her five-furlong turf debut. The daughter of Jimmy Creed is bred to love distance, and hails from a barn that is 19% with two sprints to a route angle. 7 EXHILARATE, a daughter of super turf sire War Front, debuts on the grass after returning from the layoff to finish a screw tightening third going a mile on a sealed sloppy track. Bill Mott adds second-time Lasix and John Velazquez for the surface change. 10 PENDULUM, who showed promise in a trio of turf races last Fall, is going back to the grass after finishing second – in front of a pair of next-out winners – going a mile and seventy yards on the Tapeta. Brendan Walsh has Tyler atop the daughter of Street Boss.
RON NICOLETTI SELECTIONS: 1-7-10 (BEST LONGSHOT)
BRIAN NADEAU SELECTIONS: 4-1-3-10
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Golden Gate - Race #6
Golden Gate - Race #7
Picks Notes #4 J T's Watch Not much wrong with the recent local form, and he'll look to hold form again off the claim. Think he's tactical enough to stay close in the small group. #3 Bronze Warrior He has been no match for the top choice in their recent meetings, but he looks like he's fast enough to control the tempo against this bunch, and that might allow him to stick around for a piece. #2 Ecologist He just beat some of these in the last one, and he should find a really cozy spot up close to the pace. In the mix at a potentially underlaid price. Race Summary J T's Watch has been really solid going long here in last six months, and he might be mildly playable as something like the third choice?
Golden Gate - Race #8
Picks Notes #3 Rose of Jericho Not much wrong with the first two starts, and she'll step up to try winners for the new barn after drilling a group at the $8,000 level to graduate last out. She might get the right trip behind the pace. #2 Broadway Tiger Her baseline stuff probably handles these, but I have the mildest worry about a couple of these being thorns in her side enough to soften her up -- she does give away ground late in most of her starts. #5 Eyelight She's another pace player, but she draws well to force the issue with anyone else inside who wants to show up early. Race Summary Rose of Jericho could find a good spying spot with this bunch, and another step forward off the claim today would probably keep her in the frame with these on the rise.
Picks Notes #6 Delian League He has shown some enthusiasm late in both of the starts so far, and I like that he sat closer last time out. Hoping a couple of the fresh faces will show some speed to keep the rail runner honest. #1 Party with Paddy Speed has been competitive with several of these in the company lines, but he hasn't shown a ton of grit late in the lane when he finds a challenge. Dangerous if he can clear at any point. #5 Unbridled Rhythm Price might be fair enough while stepping back up after falling short at even money last out, and he might find himself in a good spot just outside of 'Paddy while tracking the pace. Race Summary Delian League might still have another step forward in him, and he has already shown some reliable late punch through two starts. Hoping he doesn't leave himself too much to do.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne
PURCHASE
Hawthorne - Race 5 Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 4:50P FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 30 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (HORSEMEN ENTERING ILLINOIS-BRED HORSES IN OPEN CLAIMING RACES WILL BE ASKED TO DECLARE THEIR CLAIMING PRICE AT TIME OF ENTRY). ILLINOIS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RISKY BOY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. ME DAL OF FACT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TIME HEIST: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. BOISE: H orse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOURBON TEDDY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. RISKY BOY MEDAL OF FACT TIME HEIST BOISE BOURBON TEDDY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureGALLANT BUCK Front-runner BOURBON TEDDY Front-runner UNCAPTURED PULSE Front-runner RISKY BOY Stalker MEDAL OF FACT Alternator/Stalker TIME HEIST Trailer BOISE Alternator/Trailer KINGSWOOD Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate FieldsPURCHASE
Golden Gate Fields - Race 1 Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 1:15P FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ALL HALLOWS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALL HALLOWS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ALL HALLOWS
Line
Class
Speed
FigureALL HALLOWS Front-runner AFTER MY OWN HEART Alternator/Stalker INFINITE LOVE Alternator/Stalker BLUE BREEZE Alternator/Stalker FRESNO CHILE Alternator/Non-contender GETAWAY CHARM Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $89000 Class Rating: 87
GP - R11 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 11 HER DIAMONDS 8/1
# 10 PENDULUM 5/1
# 6 PAST TENSE 6/1
HER DIAMONDS looks to be a very good contender and the potential return justifies the very risky nature of the long odds. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be up on the front end early on. It's a good sign that Breen is using Lopez on this horse. PENDULUM - Is a key contender - given the 90 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race. Appears to have a respectable class edge based on the recent company kept. PAST TENSE - Expect a speed boost today from this horse going on blinkers. This filly gets a boost with Reyes in the irons.
Gulfstream Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 67
Rating:
#2 BIGBOUQUETOFROSES (ML=4/1)
#6 OLIVIA'S SPARKLE (ML=3/1)
#4 SARAH'S DREAM (ML=7/2)
BIGBOUQUETOFROSES - The Sep 17th clash at Gulfstream Park was at a class level of (74). Dropping down in the class scale drastically, so she should be in a good position to win. I sense an early speed duel developing here. If that happens, this filly will be in stalking position to gather up the leaders. I always like to see a pony getting Lasix for the 1st time. Fawkes adds it on this one today. OLIVIA'S SPARKLE - Vasquez was aboard this filly last out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. This filly is in nice form. Finished second on March 1st. SARAH'S DREAM - Taking a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from her Sep 27th race at Churchill Downs. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. D'Angelo adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a marked improvement.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JAMIE'S JOY (ML=9/2), #3 PERSEVERATE (ML=5/1), #5 VINDICATE CHA CHA (ML=8/1),
JAMIE'S JOY - Not a perfect 'spot' in this affair. PERSEVERATE - Not the best 'situation' in this affair. VINDICATE CHA CHA - Not likely that this equine will finish better than she did last time out of the box when finishing third. This less than sharp equine ran a mediocre speed rating last time out. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat today running that fig.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - OLIVIA'S SPARKLE - When a fine animal takes such a big drop in the class rating department, I always take a look. I like what I see with this one and am wagering on her.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #2 BIGBOUQUETOFROSES on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 79
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 16 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 31 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 3 HARD TEN 2/1
# 6 TWEET THIS 8/5
# 5 VENEZUELA FIRST 7/2
I think HARD TEN is a quite good choice. Is tough not to look at based on Equibase speed figs which have been very good - 79 avg - of late. Players should take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of animals. Ought to compete quite well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses. TWEET THIS - Is tough not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 66 avg - of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Rivera running at this distance are the most competitive in this group of horses. VENEZUELA FIRST - The average Equibase class figure of 58 makes this one difficult to beat. Will most likely compete well in the pace contest which bodes well with this group.
Hawthorne - Race #5 - Post: 4:50pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 81
Rating:
#7 RISKY BOY (ML=6/1)
#8 GALLANT BUCK (ML=10/1)
RISKY BOY - This gelding is entered to race right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. This rider and handler's equines have been generating a favorable ROI. This gelding is in fine condition. Finished first on Mar 23rd. GALLANT BUCK - I have to believe that this race's shorter distance should help this gelding. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Fair Grounds last time out. That event had a class rating of 90 and he is moving down right here. A certain win candidate. Carrying 6 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TIME HEIST (ML=5/2), #2 BOISE (ML=7/2), #5 KINGSWOOD (ML=9/2),
TIME HEIST - Tough to put any dough on this gelding on the win end. Likes to land in the money though. Never really did much at all last time out on Nov 20th. Hard to play today. BOISE - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint contests in order to wager on him. KINGSWOOD - A pattern of deteriorating Equibase speed figures 79/69/56 for this less than sharp equine.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #7 RISKY BOY to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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