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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/5/24
April 5, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, April 5, 2024
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
RACE 1
6-WELL FUNDED
Degree of confidence: B+
• Improving with experience and appears ready to graduate.
• Third in a similar spot after leading the way until close home.
• Significant jockey switch to the stable go-to rider, Hernandez.
Others to consider: 4-Irish Rose; 7-Bolt’s Broad.
RACE 2
2-SOUL OF MIDNIGHT
Degree of confidence: B
• Returns to his claim level after a decent third facing tougher.
• In the money in five of seven starts over the local main track.
• Prefers the lead but can stalk and pounce if race flow dictates.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 3
1-DR. SOULFIRE
Degree of confidence: B
• First time in a claimer and appears to have found a proper spot.
• Solid on speed figures and is reunited with winning rider Rispoli.
• Lacks tactical speed and will benefit from this extended sprint trip.
Others to consider: 6-Eddie’s Last; 9-Handsome Ticket; 3-Belmont Bill.
RACE 4
3-FEEL THE MAGIC
Degree of confidence: A-
• Outrun early but took hold into the lane and finished with good energy.
• Exits a very fast, highly rated race; returns in a softer optional claimer.
• Good Magic colt has an ideal style for this extended seven furlong trip.
Others to consider: 8-Chasing Rain.
RACE 5
2-SILVER SURFER
Degree of confidence: B
• Sharp drop in class into a modest restricted claimer; properly spotted.
• Shows the popular route-to-sprint angle and is a solid fit on numbers.
• Lightly raced gelding projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip.
Others to consider: 1-Johnny Drama; 4-Seismic Spirit.
RACE 6
4-ELIGIO
Degree of confidence: C
• Distant second to a next out winner facing tougher last time out.
• Easy chance after the main competition in the field scratched.
• Projects to be on or near the lead in a field without much speed.
Others to consider: 9-Uplift.
RACE 7
7-FLAVIUS
Degree of confidence: B
• Game recent winner over this course and distance at this same level.
• Retains leading rider Juan Hernandez; should be capable of repeating.
• Solid on numbers and projects to enjoy his preferred second flight trip.
Others to consider: 8-Comradery.
RACE 8
6-NAUVOO
Degree of confidence: B
• Disliked the drying out, deep track in his last start and was below his best.
• Prefers the dirt strip dry and glib; hopefully, the thunderstorms stay away.
• Remains protected in a sign of confidence; very fast on figures off best race.
Others to consider: 5-Andy Can U Hear Me; 8-Speed Grazy; 2-Spiritual Advisor.
RACE 9
3-MO’S VINO MESA
Degree of confidence: B+
• Troubled third at Woodbine in December; local works should have her fit.
• Adds blinkers, switches to grass, edge on numbers; seems the solid choice.
• Pace scenario looks soft; projects to be on or near the lead throughout.
Others to consider: 4-So Far So Good; 5-Ketonia.
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
April 5, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)
2-Heavens Gonna Rock (5-1)-Raced okay in a needed outing and now makes the 2nd start off the bench. Has been competitive versus Open company. Could be in the hunt and faces a shallow group of Open Pacers.
5-Bombay Hanover (9/2)-Comes off a big effort rallying from way back to win and now steps up. Has been a player at this class but has had trouble with Unfiltered. That said, still needs to be used.
6-Unfiltered (7/2)-Has had his way at this level and posted another win on 3-22. Looking for 3 in a row and will respect chances of taking another picture.
Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)
5-Allmyx'sliventexas (2-1)-If the 13-year-old gets a fair trip the Johnson trainee should have his way with this field. Has the gate speed to be on the point or in the pocket and either trip should be good enough to take honors.
Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)
2-Fox Valley Sidecar (9/2)-The Bertrand trainee needs an efficient trip to win. Gets necessary post relief, now Jacob Cutting can provide a smooth trip and finish best of all.
3-Cowboys Dirtyboots (5-1)-This veteran drops and makes the 2nd start since a sick scratch. Nick Roland is in the bike and although the 12-year-old seldom wins, when it does this is the level.
4-Wits Beach (2-1)-The 7-year-old is 0-7 this year but did win 5 of 30 starts in 2023. Has been facing better, gets post relief and should be in the mix.
Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)
5-Cenalta Memories (5/2)-Seems to have better speed than most of this bunch and does pass a horse down the lane from time to time. Those attributes make this mare a player versus a camera-shy crew.
8-Forever Bettor(7/5)-Was far back early in its CalX debut and did go the back half in .57. This is only the 3rd lifetime race for this 4-year-old mare. Could be ready for a more alert start and that could be the winning difference.
$1 Pick 4
2,5,6/5/2,3,4/5,8
Total Bet=$18
Keeneland Late Pick 4 Friday, April 5
April 5, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
The Grade 1 Ashland Stakes will highlight the opening day of Keeneland’s spring meet this Friday, April 5. But the 1-1/16-mile test for 3-year-old fillies is only a part of the puzzle for those hoping to solve the 50-cent Late Pick 4. Here’s a look at the sequence with a suggested $72 play:
KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- LEGADEMA finished ‘willingly’ behind a pair of next-out, 6F stakes winners in an allowance sprint at Oaklawn Park when last seen two months ago. She breezed 5F in :59-4/5 to get ready for her fourth start at as many distances and adds blinkers for a barn in the midst of a 3-for-7 run with that angle. ROSWELL sprung an 11-1 debut upset in a race that produced two winners and four runners-up. She held up her end of the bargain in a 6-1/2F allowance sprint, with her stretch rally falling just short against pace setter Launch, a follow-up stakes winner.
KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- A full field of 12 is scheduled to go post-ward in the $400,000, Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes on the turf. CAN GROUP returns to the scene of a 27-1 upset in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes last year as a 2-year-old. He saved ground but trailed around both turns before launching a furious 7-wide rally to prevail at today’s distance. He closed fast in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, too, but finished fourth. He’s a must use in the Pick 4 at a generous 12-1 on the morning line, but the lack of pace and crowded field are a concern. FIRST WORLD WAR, freshened two months since winning the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes on the Gulfstream Park lawn, looms the front-end danger with Tyler Gaffalione, last year’s top jockey at Keeneland. He raced wide most of the way from post 12 while stalking the pace as the beaten favorite against CAN GROUP in the Bourbon Stakes. He finished a half-length behind Vote No, a runaway stakes winner in his next start. If either CAN GROUP or FIRST WORLD WAR are scratched, add LORD BULLINGDON (#7) to the ticket.
KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- The top three finishers from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies reunite in the Grade 1 Ashland. Champion 2-year-old JUST F Y I makes her seasonal debut after she developed a fever and scratched from her scheduled return in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park last month. The good news is that she is working bullets as she puts her unbeaten record on the line. She raced close up in the Breeders’ Cup and won in a three-horse photo finish over JODY’S PRIDE, who stretched out in distance and finished a half-length behind in her only setback to date, and CANDIED, who joined the photo-finish on the heels of a victory in the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland at today’s distance. But this is by no means a three-horse race. In fact, IMPEL, who followed an easy first-out victory with a smashing allowance score at Oaklawn Park, is the morning-line favorite. She earned a 91 Beyer speed figure last out and did it while drawing away from the field “on her own courage.”
KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- With 14 sophomore fillies (12 betting interests) arriving from various venues, traveling 1-3/16 miles for the first time and a posting a combined 0-for-25 record if the rainy weather Wednesday and Thursday doesn’t force this Maiden Special Weight race off turf, take nothing to chance and hit the ‘ALL’ button in the final leg of the Pick 4.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
KEE 7th Race: 3, 10
KEE 8th Race: 6, 10
KEE 9th Race: 1, 6, 7
KEE 10th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $72
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Evangeline Downs - Race #5
Evangeline Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes #14 Monolith He's had his share of chances already and will need some scratch help to draw in, but he owns a handful of turf tries that look competitive enough to give him a look if he goes. #9 Emily's Boy His last couple stack up pretty well here, and he has some positional pace that will give him the jump on a few logical players who will be finishing late. #6 Gotta Keep Him There are a couple decent names in his company lines, and he's another who might be in a pretty good spot while racing in a good tracking spot. Race Summary Not a ton of pace signed on in this one, and Monolith might be fast enough to sit up close from the wide draw if he gets to run today. Emily's Boy and Gotta Keep Him look like the two to settle the score in the main body.
Evangeline Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 Crypto Mo She has been a revelation since getting around two turns, and she looks like the controlling pace from the fence. Her Grade III score last out would do the job if she can hold that form today. #5 Tryinmyheartout Her last main-track try produced a huge score at Fair Grounds in December, and she seems most likely to pick up the top choice if she can't see this one out. Chances improve if a couple of the pressing types take early shots at that one. #3 Hayunevano She ran in a couple tough spots going long as a 2- and 3-year-old, and I'm willing to forgive the dud before heading to the bench last year. The sprint try last out might set her up for better second off the layoff. Race Summary Crypto Mo is supposed to be tough in here, and while it doesn't feel like huge sign of confidence for her to be in a $60,000 spot after landing a Grade III last time out, her baseline two-turn try would handle these.
Picks Notes #3 Bay Mobile He and #12 Lil Red Ford both go first time out for a team that has done some good work with these kinds of horses over the last year. Get a look at them both on the track and tote. #5 The Petitioner He finished up well enough in the first try to think there might be something just a bit sharper late today with that race under his belt. Wouldn't be a shock in a race that might be asking for someone who wants to finish a little bit. #1 Michael's Moon He didn't have the most advantageous go in the debut run, but that could be the case from the inside draw again today. That said, he is fast enough to mix it up early here while getting in for a tag at second asking. Race Summary Not totally sure what to make of most of these, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a fresh face land it. Two of the three debuters come from a West barn that has connected with a few like this here.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #1
Keeneland - Race #2
Picks Notes #1 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD (7-2) Has speed, must carry it farther as all-or-nothing type on barn switch. #6 IDALOU (20-1) Got Lasix, prevailed in 6F sprint dominated by deep closers at Oaklawn. #3 NOSHUGFORPOP (9-2) Marked improvement in last pair, needs some pace flow. Race Summary PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD is reunited with trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. after she back-pedaled readily in her last two starts. Dutrow wins at a high rate but he’s only 1-for-12 this year with new acquisitions. Things could change with a 3-year-old filly who can maximize her speed from the rail and get the jump on her main rivals in this spot. Bet to win and place.
Keeneland - Race #3
Picks Notes #12 SHOOT IT TRUE (4-1) Tall task from post 12, but :34-3/5 Keeneland gate move is reason to believe. #9 BOSTONTONIAN (9-5) Blazing along in the morning for 28-percent first-out barn. #10 VINEGAR HILL (15-1) Dam was a second-out MSW victor at track and two-time stakes winner at 2. Race Summary No shortage of fast workouts – 17 bullets for those counting -- in this 12-horse field of first-time starters. And no doubt trainer Wesley Ward’s uncoupled duo of BOSTONTONIAN and SHOOT IT TRUE will draw a lot of attention, though their dams were a combined 1-for-16 in their careers. Take the bigger price on SHOOT IT TRUE, one of two fillies in the field. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #7 NEAT TRICK (4-1) Held her own in first two starts that produced 8/2-5-0 follow-up performances. #9 BELLS BEACH (7-2) Gets Lasix for debut; dam won first-out at Del Mar and was G-1-placed as 3yo. #10 BEDAZZLE ‘EM (8-1) Ran second from on and off the pace as the favorite, good price. Race Summary NEAT TRICK didn’t change leads in an otherwise useful debut won by an even-money first-time starter and one that yielded two next-out winners and four runners-up. She added blinkers for her second start and ‘ran on from the 4-path’ to finish a half-length behind the favorite. Bet to win and place and play a 7-9-10 exacta box.
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