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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
April 12, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 10-race card. The 0.20 Pick 4 has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout. It starts in Race 7 and will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)
2-Sin Machqueen (9/2)-Drops and will look for a different trip this time. Doesn't need to lead every step of the way to win and Jacob Cutting could work a successful stalking trip.
7-Jeremys Alibi (3-1)-Has been racing from the back and will look for Nick Roland to have in play off the gate. The inside post draw might be enough for a suck-around trip and a rare win.
8-Myartblongstorock (12-1)-Drops and at the morning line price is worth using. Has been competitive versus this kind and with a sharp steer could surprise.
9-Cut A Rug (6-1)-Rallied to win with a 56.1 back half and has won 2 of the last 3. It won't be easy to double up from the
9-hole but should offer a solid price and it's risky to leave out.
Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)
3-Chief Saratoga (7/2)-The Roland trainee is 1-41 since the start of 2023 and is the 7/2 second choice. Obviously, this isn't a group of all-stars and did show some life last time. Is in a spot to get an efficient trip and could use one move late in the mile to win.
6-Fox Valley Sidecar (9/2)-Got the top and faded last week. Cutting could look to leave again and get on the point. Needs to steal a quarter and if so, it could be picture time.
7-Ak Up N Attem (6-1)-Only 1-30 here and James Kennedy needs to provide a close-up stalking trip. Could find an honest pace to close into and the short field won't hurt chances.
Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)
1-South Gate Sally (5-1)-Should be racing at the top of the stack and has a chance for an upset with a well-timed move down the lane.
2-Moonlit Night (2-1)-Finished a beaten 2nd in a quick mile but did keep coming. The 3-year-old has some game and should get a smooth trip and be in the hunt at the wire.
Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)
2-Rockin The Dragon (5/2)-Raced well versus this kind 2 back. Expecting the same with another inside post draw and Kennedy could get the top and not look back.
4-Princessofthedawn (5-1)-Knows how to win and has taken 8 pictures in 22 races at CalX. Makes the 3rd start off the bench and could be overlooked. Looking for a better price than the program odds and should be forwardly placed off the gate.
0.20 Pick 4
2,7,8,9/3,6,7/1,2/2,4
Total Bet=$9.60
Keeneland Late Pick 4 Friday, April 12
April 12, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
KEENLAND LATE PICK 4
Friday, April 12, 2024
The favorites went winless in the Keeneland’s Pick 4 last Friday, at the expense of three winners who paid $20 or more. It added up to a 50-cent Pick 4 payout of $6,307 on opening day. Will history repeat itself this Friday? It’s worth a bet to find out.
KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- CRIMSON ADVOCATE, a second-out stakes winner on the Gulfstream Park lawn, Group 2 grass sprint winner at Ascot and torrid pace-setter in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, should outrun her 6-1 morning-line odds in the $250,000 Limestone Stakes. But the 10 rivals she beat at Gulfstream are 4-for-57 since that race, so go a little deeper on the ticket. KODIAK WINTERGREEN is a longshot worth using. She broke her maiden on the Saratoga lawn, gets plenty of pace to rally into and her dam, Humble and Proud, produced two multiple graded stakes winners and Love Reigns, who won this race last year. NICE AS PIE seeks her third consecutive stakes victory in her first start on turf. She was geared down in victory in the 6-1/2F Valdale Stakes and advanced while in-hand on the turn in winning the 6F Serena’s Song. ZOE’S PRIME overcame a bumpy break and 6-wide fan at the top of the stretch to finish second to the favorite in her debut, then she romped next out in a race that timed 1-2/5 faster than 3-year-old MSW colts and geldings on the same card. PIPSY hasn’t raced since an October stakes victory in Ireland, but she is working well for her U.S. debut and lures Prat to ride.
KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- CLASSIC LEGACY made his seasonal debut off a nine-month layoff and made a late run at multiple graded stakes-placed winner Great Navigator at 6-1/2F, setting him up well for a winning-type run at 7F in a speed-laden field. TUNISIAN SPRING makes his seasonal debut for a high-percentage layoff barn but draws outside in a crowded field. He set the pace but couldn’t contain the 2-to-1 winner in a 6F race that produced several proven allowance runners, but he did carry his speed 7F to break his maiden prior to that. SUNCROFT was hand-ridden in a smashing debut, then chased but couldn’t foil a freakish performance by 11-1 winner Olazabal, who lost his previous seven starts by a combined 89 lengths, albeit a few in stakes company.
KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- Breeders Cup Mile champion MASTER OF THE SEAS seeks his fifth graded stakes victory at the distance in the Grade 1, $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile. The rainy forecast, potential reported scratch of Du Jour and lack of pace could work against the late-running multi-millionaire, but he’s hard to overlook, nonetheless. KUBRICK won his U.S. debut for trainer Chad Brown in allowance company off a nine-month layoff at Tampa Bay Downs. He was pinched back at the start, raced 3- and 4-wide throughout, kicked clear in mid-stretch and has plenty of upside for a 24 percent ‘repeat’ barn at a big price.
KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- Good recent form abounds in this 1-1/16-mile starter allowance, with four of the 10 entrants winning at different tracks in their last start. LIPS SAY BLISS arrives from Oaklawn Park in excellent form and a proven off-track record that could resurface. He drifted out and lugged in when second in a triple key race two back, then withstood constant pressure on the front end to prevail by a neck at today’s distance. MIDNIGHT RAID has two wins and a second going a route of ground in his last five starts with an average 84 Beyer in those races. GILDEN CRAKEN was no match for MIDNIGHT RAID in the stretch, but he has progressed steadily since a $30,000 claim, worked well since that race and projects an ideal stalking trip at bigger odds. The light switch turned on for EJTIMAA when he raced with Lasix and won back-to-back long sprints at Tampa Bay Downs by a combined 15-3/4 lengths. He takes on older rivals from post 10 but lures Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
KEE 7th Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10
KEE 8th Race: 3, 5, 11
KEE 9th Race: 4, 5
KEE 10th Race: 4, 5, 7, 10
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $60
Jeremy Plonk: Money-Back Special Stakes Picks
April 11, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
Stakes are high this weekend at Keeneland, Oaklawn and Laurel Park and 1/ST BET and Xpressbet provide extra incentive to give those highly visible races an even deeper look. Players on both platforms can take advantage of up to $10 back on win bets who finish second or third – providing some extra cushion in your calculations. Be sure to opt into the promotion in order to take part.
Here’s my dive into the 11 stakes races that are part of the money-back special.
Friday
Keeneland // Race 7 // $250,000 Limestone Stakes // 4:12 pm ET
Notable: Beyond the turf sprint dominance of trainer Wesley Ward, who is noticeably absent from the entries in the Limestone, the Rusty Arnold barn takes a back seat to no one in Keeneland grass dashes. The international pedigree for Arnold’s #5 Kodiac Wintergreen should come in handy after a week of rain will leave the course soft at best. Drawn beautifully and freshened for the return. Top play. Group 1 Queen Mary winner #10 Crimson Advocate would be no surprise, but will be an underlay price in her return.
Keeneland // Race 9 // $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes // 5:16 pm ET
Notable: Don’t see them beating #4 Master of the Seas, the reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, back over a course in which he ran a dynamite race in last year’s Keeneland Turf Mile while a nose short. Softer ground plays to his European pedigree and experience. #5 Kubrick interests in that he’s sitting on a big race, should love the conditions and will be a solid price with a decent shot at second or third for the money-back if Master of the Seas proves too good.
//
Saturday
Laurel // Race 4 // $100,000 Heavenly Cause Stakes // 2:01 pm ET
Notable: #3 Intrepid Dream will be heavily favored after 5 wins in her first 6 starts. But taking a shot to beat her isn’t a bad idea in this particular situation with only a field of 6 and getting money back on second or third-place finishes. #3 Too Many Kisses should be passing horses and will offer value exiting the Maryland-bred restricted ranks. Not a confident play among the sequence of races.
Laurel // Race 8 // $100,000 Primonetta Stakes // 4:05 pm ET
Notable: #7 Kant Hurry Love is a deserving favorite and highly reliable with 18 top-3 finishes in 21 career starts. Can’t fault her. Take the short price and feel confident she’ll hit the board for the refund even if dealt a surprising defeat.
Keeneland // Race 7 // $300,000 Giant’s Causeway Stakes // 4:12 pm ET
Notable: Trainer Wesley Ward has owned this turf sprint of late with come-backing runners freshened for wintger like #12 Love Reigns. The far outside post in Keeneland turf sprints is successfully navigated more often that you’d think. #10 Breeze Easy could move up with expected course conditions on the soft side after rains much of the week. Love Reigns is most likely, but Breeze Easy offers more value and you get some margin for error with the promo.
Laurel // Race 9 // $100,000 Frank Y. Whiteley Stakes // 4:35 pm ET
Notable: The favorites feel vulnerable as #1 Coastal Mission has done all his best work on the Charles Town oval, while 8-year-old #4 Royal Ship has plenty of class, but questions surrounding his readiness. He’s been away since July and moved to a conservative trainer in Graham Motion who typically won’t lean too hard on a horse like this on the comeback. #7 Prince of Jericho was brought back perfectly for this stakes bid, winning a local allowance over an easy distance. Notice his second start of his form cycle last year was a monster. Beware.
Oaklawn // Race 8 // $500,000 Count Fleet Stakes // 4:56 pm ET
Notable: #4 Skelly will be a deserving favorite and boasts a 6-for-8 success rate at Oaklawn. The question will be how much, if any, did a trip to Saudi Arabia tax this 5-year-old? #6 Tejano Twist is about as trustworthy as it gets for a top-3 placing over this track (7-for-7) and distance (13-for-14). He’s the play looking to upend Skelly with the benefit of money-back if he comes up just short.
Laurel // Race 10 // $100,000 Native Dancer Stakes // 5:08 pm ET
Notable: #5 Be Better has come from far back in recent starts, but is trustworthy to be picking up runners in the stretch. Among all of these 1-turn mile types in the field, he’s the horse best-suited for the 2-turn, 9-furlong venture. Confident top-3 play even if he runs out of real estate to get the victory.
Keeneland // Race 9 // $600,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes // 5:16 pm ET
Notable: Trainer Chad Brown sends out 4 runners in a stakes that his fillies and mares have crushed the competition in recent years. But separating that lot isn’t easy, much less which one will fire off extended layoffs. #3 Elusive Princess should be forwardly placed, got a perfect prep and figures to excel over the softer course conditions. That’s the play.
Keeneland // Race 10 // $400,000 Lexington Stakes // 5:48 Race
Notable: Expect a drying-out main track on Saturday that could be heavy, deep and demanding. Strong finishers #9 Liberal Arts and #8 Encino will be in high gear late and the ones to fear. Liberal Arts has a world of talent if he behaves early in the race, which was his demise in the Arkansas Derby. He’s the play, but I could take either of these and feel confidence.
Oaklawn // Race 11 // $1.25 million Apple Blossom Stakes // 6:46 pm ET
Notable: A solid pace in the Apple Blossom will give #2 Taxed every chance to pounce on the front-runners late under leading local rider Cristian Torres. She’s likely the fourth betting choice in the race and will offer great value. Taxed appears to be sitting on a career effort. #4 Adare Manor will be favored, but her record outside of California leaves some doubt for taking a short price.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #6
Keeneland - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 Pretty Layla Think she has some finishing appeal in a spot where there are some fresh faces and a handful who have already shown some forward ability. Grade I dropper can sit and watch it unfold. #8 May May Strong She and #2 Kehoe Beach both have some appealing pace, but I'm just worried that the race flow will leave them vulnerable to getting picked up late. Dangerous from right up on the splits. #9 On Command She might be able to rate just enough to find a pretty sweet spying run today, but for me she's one of those horses that makes a lot of sense but is tough to get that excited about. Race Summary Pretty Layla was no match for a Grade I group let by Tamara last summer, but she returns fresh with Gaffialone up -- attractive at something likely shorter than the 15/1 ML offering.
Keeneland - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 Nice as Pie No clue if that synthetic form is going to transfer to turf, but I am excited to watch today and see if it does. Her recent races have been so sharp -- effortless acceleration and tons of enthusiasm to get into the race whenever she's allowed to. Strong lean. #3 Pipsy Her Euro form last year looks like a good enough fit, and she has been here preparing for this for some time. Get a look at her. #9 Foxxy Cleopatra She took to the turf nicely last out in New Orleans, and this Breeders' Cup-winning barn does really good work with turf sprinters. Wouldn't surprise. Race Summary Nice as Pie has been sensational this winter at Turfway, and I think she can land this deeper race if she transfers her talent to the turf. Let's see what she's made of.
Picks Notes #3 Naval Power He's a question on overall class, but he seems more tactical than his favored stablemate and could be in a pretty sweet spot near the top in a race without a ton of committed pace. #4 Master of the Seas No doubt he's the one to beat as he makes his first start back since the Breeders' Cup Mile win last year when he stormed home to score. Short price at least made me look, and I wonder if someone can get the jump on him. #7 Du Jour I'm reluctantly becoming a fan of this guy over his recent starts, and I think his best chance comes from trying to be the tiniest bit more tactical today. That said, he got that Grade I win off the bench and is in the frame with any step forward. Race Summary Naval Power is a bit of a guess, but he has shown a little positional pace in some of his tries overseas and might offer a midrange price.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #1
Keeneland - Race #2
Picks Notes #2 FIGURETI (7-2) Been keeping quality company, looks to bounce back from sub-par try in fast heat. #10 SPYCRAFT (8-1) Good first gear, might need passing gear from outside at proven distance. #1 RIVOLI (8-1) Won three allowance sprints in a row at Miami Valley on conventional dirt. Race Summary FIGURETI was no factor in a fast-paced 6F sprint won by Spike Zone, who averaged an 89 Beyer speed figure during a three-race streak. He beat an odds-on favorite three back and knocked off $311,439 earner Feast to make good on a $35,000 claim last fall. He is well-spotted with a $45,000 purse at stake, so bet to win and place and play a 1-2-10 exacta box.
Keeneland - Race #4
Picks Notes #4 NO BRAKE NEEDED (12-1) Longshot stab can make better use of his speed with race under belt. #6 SHARP SHOT (7-2) Exits MSW ranks, met two winners two back and stakes-placed rival last out. #5 MODERN DAY WARRIOR (3-1) Zipping along in the morning for top first-out barn, don’t expect 3-1. Race Summary NO BRAKE NEEDED showed a pair of bullet workouts before his debut at Fair Grounds, but gave way chasing the 9-2 winner for a $30,000 tag. He probably will be chasing the Wesley Ward-trained firster MODERN DAY WARRIOR but can remain a forward factor throughout with improvement in this crowded field. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #8 ABADIN (9-2) Well-traveled in $100k sophomore year, works indicate readiness for return. #2 HARRODSBURG (6-5) Returns from promising 3yo season, worked in :47.1 from Keeneland gate. #4 MOREAU (12-1) Rallied at 1M in lone win, can do the same with blinkers added on the cutback. Race Summary ABADIN makes his 4-year-old debut in a new barn, but he is one of two 7F winners in the field and was last seen in a one-mile race at Churchill Downs that produced four next-out allowance winners with an average 87 Beyer. Bet him to win and place in his first start for a claiming price.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunray Park
PURCHASE
Sunray Park - Race 7 Claiming $12,500 • 440 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $22,950 • Post: 3:45P QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 12, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MR YIN YANG: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PHUNATIC: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MOON GUNNER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). BLAME THE FED MR YIN YANG PHUNATIC MOON GUNNER
Line
Class
Speed
FigureJESS SWEET PRINCE Fast MOON GUNNER Average PHUNATIC Average MR YIN YANG Slow SEZA BOLD JESSE Average BUCKIE JONES Average LETHAL FAST MAN Slow/Trouble-prone SPIT PRIZE CORONA Slow FILTHY RICH Average VA BEBE VALENTINES Fast BLAME THE FED Average
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington ParkPURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 1 Trial • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 84 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:00P QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA BREDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT 124 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PRINCESS HADLEY: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PRINCESS HADLEY
Unknown Running Style: SWEEET D (5/1) [Jockey: Esqueda Cristian R - Trainer: Charette-Hill Stacy], SALSA CORONA (5/2) [Jockey: Torres Daniel Antonio - Trainer: Manriquez-Garay F I], KING TUTT (8/1) [Jockey: Rivera Ali - Trainer: Stinebaugh Zackary],
Line
Class
Speed
FigurePRINCESS HADLEY Average
Oaklawn Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating:
#1 RED LINE OVERDRIVE (ML=8/1)
#4 FASTENED (ML=3/1)
#10 CRAVENSWORTH (ML=5/2)
RED LINE OVERDRIVE - My handicapping know-how tells me to be on the alert for this horse in this clash FASTENED - This colt's last speed rating is lofty enough to win here, I'll wager on him back again this time out. Recent speed ratings show powerful pattern of improvement. CRAVENSWORTH - The jock and conditioner combination have a lucrative ROI when they are put together. I am keen on that last race on March 16th at Oaklawn Park where he ran second.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ASYMMETRIC (ML=4/1), #7 AMERICAN ICON (ML=9/2),
ASYMMETRIC - This horse doesn't have a winning state of mind. Habitually finishes in the place or show hole. AMERICAN ICON - The lack of morning blow outs has to make one concerned despite the good effort in the last race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CRAVENSWORTH - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a freshening. That's the time when they peak.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #1 RED LINE OVERDRIVE on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,4,10] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [1,4,10] with [1,4,10] with [1,2,4,7,10] with [1,2,4,7,10] Total Cost: $36
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 85
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 8 THANKS MAGGIO (ARG) 8/1
# 3 ACCLIDER 5/2
# 2 LAURA'S KIDOUGH 9/5
THANKS MAGGIO (ARG) looks like the wager in here and is a competitive value wager given the line. Could provide positive dividends based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 77. Has competed strongly in turf route races. Is a contender - given the 81 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race. ACCLIDER - His 86 average has this horse with among the top Equibase Speed Figures for this event. Could beat this group of animals given the 82 Equibase speed fig put up in his last outing. LAURA'S KIDOUGH - Posted a formidable speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. This gelding has been consistently racing well in his latest outings.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 77
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 7 MONEY ROOM 7/2
# 2 COMMON PROSPERITY 1/1
# 3 ELUSIVE IMAGE 12/1
I think MONEY ROOM is a respectable choice. Is a strong contender based on numbers garnered recently under today's conditions. Recent numbers for the jockey - 21 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. With a very good 61 Equibase speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. COMMON PROSPERITY - Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. Ought to be considered - I like the figs from the last contest. ELUSIVE IMAGE - He looks formidable in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.
Fonner Park - Race #4 - Post: 5:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,000 Class Rating: 54
Rating:
#3 WAR HAWK (ML=3/1)
WAR HAWK - I like when a race sets up this way. This gelding has the lone pace to crush this field. Was in a Maiden Special race at Fonner Park in the last race. That race had a class figure of 62 and he is moving down right here in this race. A certain win candidate. All systems look good for this gelding. Last workout, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 58, is tops in this bunch. A repeat effort from any of last three efforts, and this one should be in the winner's circle photo.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CAN DANZER (ML=4/1), #2 HEY SISSY (ML=9/2), #9 DOING DAYS (ML=5/1),
CAN DANZER - Nice race on Mar 22nd at Fonner Park, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough today. HEY SISSY - The Brain always tells me to stay away from horses in sprint events that haven't hit the board in sprint races recently. Just can't invest in this less than sharp equine. Didn't show me anything last out or on Mar 30th. DOING DAYS - Tough to bet on at 5/1 odds after the two most recent showings.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #3 WAR HAWK to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: 3 with [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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