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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
April 13, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM PST)
3-Think Of Galaxies (5/2)-Doesn't have the resume of others. But competes, has been racing well and the post edge may make a winning difference.
7-Always Gonna B You (5-1)-Goes back and forth between Nfld and the Mea, and has been off since 3-20. Aaron Merriman sticks, the short rest may help and if ready could wire this crew. There is little doubt the pedal will be through the floorboard.
8-High Flyin' Filly (5-1)-Should be worth a play despite the post draw, does have good gate speed. Might be overlooked at the windows, Ronnie Wrenn could have swift pace to close into.
Race 12 (10:02 PM PST)
1-Lady Rita (2-1)-Got a 2-hole ride and finished 2nd in the 1st start off the bench since 11-1. Now lands in a picture taking spot as this field should be an easier challenge and draws the rail again.
5-Santastic Cruiser (9/2)-Has been in good form and now faces tougher. This will be test but could land in the pocket behind #1 and post a trip-out win.
Race 13 (10:24 PM PST)
5-Martaritaondarocks (5-1)-Probably needed the last start, stayed inside, and did finish well. Makes the 2nd start since shipping in from the Meadows and will look for an aggressive steer by Merriman.
7-The Magical Woman (9/2)-This mare has been overmatched in a number of races and now drops to a level to be competitive. Kurt Sugg has some gate speed to work with and it is 2nd time Lasix. This looks like a spot to shine at a square price.
Race 14 (10:46 PM PST)
3-Reckon I Will (9/5)-Has been trying but is still 0-12 this year. Needs a smooth trip and can get one from this post. Should top this bunch if brings its best to effort and gets a smooth trip.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
3,7,8/1,5/5,7/3
Total Bet=$12
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #7
Keeneland - Race #9
Picks Notes #4 Oeuvre Price might be honest enough here, and she has some appeal while turning back to her best trip, and she should be in line to find a great spying spot. The two-back winner might be a future turf sprint star out of Louisiana. #8 Roses For Debra She returns off the modest try in the Breeders' Cup turf sprint, and her baseline run stacks up well with these. Think she's a threat at a potentially underlaid price off the bench. #11 Elm Drive The turf sprint form is the best on her page, and she draws well for an outside spy. Mild worry that she's overbet today. Race Summary Oeuvre should offer a midrange price with this group, but she has some upside while getting back around one turn with some recent sprint form that looks competitive.
Keeneland - Race #11
Picks Notes #5 English Rose The barn tends to send livewires to the big ones here, and this filly hasn't done much wrong through four starts. She might be in a fine spot early. #9 Didia I wonder if her ceiling isn't quite as high as a couple others in here, but she has been pretty consistent over the course of her career and looked good winning the Pegasus Turf last out. Wouldn't surprise, but I think she's a bit more logical underneath today. #6 Gina Romantica She only missed by a length in the Breeders' Cup Mile, and she landed a couple Grade Is over this course in her previous trips over the local lawn. She lost in a Grade III off the bench last year, but I'm not reading too much into that. Race Summary English Rose is one of a handful of tough players in a fun renewal-- even #7 Surge Capacity is a Grade I winner with a claim on this.
Picks Notes #5 Royal Majesty Think there is enough pace signed on to hope the splits are at least honest, and he's a reliable enough finisher who finds an easier spot than he saw last out. The runner up that day just missed in the Transylvania here last week. #6 Gorilla Trek He might have enough to grab a piece of this at a price, as he's bringing dull form over the dirt and synthetic with him, but he graduated on the grass at first asking and tried Grade II turf company off that run. Could see him bouncing back. #9 Moonlight He was never involved behind one of the likely Kentucky Derby favorites at Fair Grounds last out, but believers can keep hope as he'll get over to the turf while getting some class relief off the trio of graded stakes tries. Race Summary There are probably three or four other players who could land this that I haven't even mentioned -- fun race. Final thought: #3 Incinerator is interesting on the move to the turf, but I worry about some other pace making his life hard today as he adds blinkers.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #1
Laurel Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #1 QUICK RETURN (6-1) Lake shipper seeks re-run of winning rail trip in longer sprint two starts ago. #2 ROYAL SPY (5-2) Blew a commanding lead at 7f and was claimed by red-hot Magee barn. #6 CROWNEDCOUNTCRISTO (4-1) Rallied for an 8/1-3-3 record in short sprints since December. Race Summary Shopping for some value in an evenly-matched field with several class droppers. QUICK RETURN arrives from Parx, where he ranged up on the rail two starts back at 6-1/2F and out-dueled the favorite to the wire despite drifting out at the eighth pole. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-6 exacta box.
Laurel Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #4 CURLINGTON (6-1) Returns to Laurel in good form, ideally spotted to enhance 12-for-44 record. #7 LOOSE GOOSE (3-1) Earned top speed figure when third in latest, gets in light-weighted. #3 FORTUNE’S FOOL (7-2) Bid to brief stretch lead against ‘Goose’ and finished a half-length behind. Race Summary CURLINGTON, a lightly-raced but highly-productive 7-year-old, won off the claim and off similar rest around two turns at Penn National. He seized the moment after the co-favorites drifted wide along the way but drew clear in the final sixteenth, nonetheless. He’s one of two entrants not entered for a claiming price. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #3 DEAD SEXY (8-1) Live longshot off deceptively strong debut, must use in all gimmicks. #4 WONDER GIRL (3-1) Disqualified from MSW win on Belmont turf when last seen in July. #7 CONCEPTUALIZE (2-1) In range but coming up short in stretch in 6F sprints. Race Summary DEAD SEXY showed enough in her debut to warrant a long look at 8-1 on the morning line. She broke slowly, steadied in traffic and lost momentum on the backside, then rallied wide and finished willingly for third. The race winner was the 3-to-5 favorite and runner-up Determind Princess came back to win a one-mile MSW race easily. Bet to win and place and play a 3/1,4,7,8/ALL trifecta.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9 Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 9:26P QUARTER HORSE 350Y, VIRGINIA HYLAND S. - FOR FILLIES & MARES, FOR THREE YEAR OLD'S & UPWARDS, BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $50 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $400 EACH BY CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. ALL HORSES SHALL PAY $350 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. (WEIGHT 126). A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * AJ BORN RUNNIN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. NYMPHETTE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GOTTA CORONA JESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BUDDER OFF FRIENDS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TENA RENA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. AJ BORN RUNNIN NYMPHETTE GOTTA CORONA JESS BUDDER OFF FRIENDS TENA RENA
Line
Class
Speed
FigureBUDDER OFF FRIENDS Average GOTTA CORONA JESS Average NYMPHETTE Average FAVORITE LADY CARTEL Average AJ BORN RUNNIN Average TENA RENA Slow FOREVER DYNASTY Average
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 6 Claiming $35,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $41,000 • Post: 3:46P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000 (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. SOUTHERN DREAM is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BEASTLY SPEED: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse h ad a bullet workout within the last seven days. THREETHIRTYTHREE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PRACTIKO: Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BEASTLY SPEED THREETHIRTYTHREE PRACTIKO
Line
Class
Speed
FigurePRACTIKO Front-runner HAY HAY HARRY Front-runner APOLLO CODE Stalker BEASTLY SPEED Alternator/Stalker THREETHIRTYTHREE Alternator/Stalker SOUTHERN DREAM Trailer RAGING FURY Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5600 Class Rating: 78
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2023 - 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 MASTERPIECE DAY 2/1
# 6 DILLON ROCKS 9/2
# 3 TIGER THE MAN 12/1
I think MASTERPIECE DAY is a very good choice. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be close to the front end early on. Earned a formidable Equibase speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. DILLON ROCKS - Might go off at a solid price and has some positives going for him. A solid 87 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. TIGER THE MAN - Solid average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a definite contender. Handler boasts very solid win figures at this distance and surface.
Oaklawn Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 72
Rating:
#2 HAYEK (ML=8/1)
#5 MAMBA OUT (ML=2/1)
HAYEK - Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be favorable. I like to see fast drills. This filly's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. This horse's last race was out at Oaklawn Park in a race with a class rating of 79. Dropping drastically in class figure this time around puts her in a solid position in this field. MAMBA OUT - This filly is in first-rate form right now. Ran third last time around the track and comes back quickly. Trainer, Moquett, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SAVAGE DARLING (ML=7/5), #6 DARE ME (ML=5/1), #3 SUBWAY SUSIE (ML=6/1),
SAVAGE DARLING - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. DARE ME - In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been looking good in sprint affairs of late. SUBWAY SUSIE - Not likely for this entrant to make a winning move with no success lately in a short distance race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HAYEK - My take on the data says it usually takes a thoroughbred a few races after a layoff to get back into condition. That's just what we have here, so I expect a really good race for this horse.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #2 HAYEK on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Golden Gate Fields - Race #2 - Post: 1:42pm - Optional Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 98
Rating:
#1 LMLOOKNFORMISCHIEF (ML=6/1)
#2 BERRY VALLEY (ML=7/5)
#4 YOU GO GIRL (ML=7/2)
LMLOOKNFORMISCHIEF - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should improve in this event, with some respectable odds. This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him back of the pack early in the race and closing strongly on the tiring speed horses. Came home in speedy time last out. A positive sign. BERRY VALLEY - You have to bet this animal at a venue she likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race. I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always on the board. This mare garnered a nice speed rating of 99 in her last event. That speed rating should be high enough to prove victorious today. YOU GO GIRL - I believe that this shorter distance should help this mare.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ZAZEN (ML=9/5), #3 BABY KRISTEN (ML=6/1),
ZAZEN - Doubtful for this horse to make a winning move with no recent success in a short distance event. BABY KRISTEN - Improbable that the speed figure she recorded on March 10th will hold up in this race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #1 LMLOOKNFORMISCHIEF on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 72
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 10 CASCADE CRUISER 7/2
# 2 SHARP STRIKE 10/1
# 3 GIANNO 5/2
I think CASCADE CRUISER is a quite good choice. Displays solid speed figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. There is a formidable possibility of an increase in speed as this gelding changes blinkers (on) for the first time. Must be given a shot in this contest if only for the very good speed fig recorded in the last contest. SHARP STRIKE - May wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Likely to see a much better attempt with the drop. GIANNO - Put up a formidable speed rating last time out. Rivelli and Mojica have won 28 percent of their races giving this racer a very good chance.
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