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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
April 14, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 13-race card. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 10, it has a $25,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10 (7:50 PM PST)
7-Ain't She Special (5/2)-Finished 2nd in last after setting a new lifetime mark and now comes back in sequence. Probably has the best gate speed. Could get the jump on the choice #8, and that could be a winning edge.
8-Blinded By Delight (2-1)-Lightly raced Graham trainee makes the most of it chances, has won 9 of 11 since the beginning of 2023. Also does really well at CalX taking pictures in 5 of 7 races and should be a main player.
Race 11 (8:10 PM PST)
3-Dancin Lance (2-1)-Comes off a DH winner with the one below. Looked to take charge early on last time. That plan did work for the most part and Brett Erickson could look to follow the same script.
4-Hoo Nien A (5-1)-Benefited from a quick pace in last and was able to rally down the lane. Jerry Longo has options for a picture, could take a pocket ride or work a close-up stalking trip.
Race 12 (8:30 PM PST)
1-Go With Flow (4-1)-New connections cashed the top check at first asking. Steps up but will be tough to beat if comes with another 55.1 back half. Jacob Cutting should have the mare in striking range at the top of the stretch.
2-What Cheer (2-1)-The last 2 races were encouraging and should be a player if can avoid a slow start off the gate. Returns versus the same kind, and the beaten chalk could make amends tonight.
Race 13 (8:50 PM PST)
3-Rockin Sage (3-1)-It seems pilot Vod Farris has learned the best chance for a picture with this mare is to stay inside. Should get another efficient trip with this post draw and will look to use one move to roll by down the lane.
4-Brookklyn Wind Up (6-1)-Even effort and not the best of trips last time. Comes back in sequence this time and fits. Will look for a smoother journey and rely on Nick Roland to have in play turning for the wire.
6-Outlawburntpopcorn (7/2)-Wouldn't want to take a small price but this mare has been in the hunt. Has turned camera shy this year (0-11). But should be there at the wire with a sharp drive from Jessie Pacheco.
0.20 Pick 4
7,8/3,4/1,2/3,4,6
Total Bet=$4.80
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE
Camarero - Race 2 Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 25 • Purse: $6,800 • Post: 3:10P FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 14 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RITMO DE BOLERO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SOY AUTENTICO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GREY COFFEE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. EL PATRULLERO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. EL TROVADOR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RITMO DE BOLERO SOY AUTENTICO GREY COFFEE EL PATRULLERO EL TROVADOR
Line
Class
Speed
FigureGREY COFFEE Front-runner EL TROVADOR Front-runner SOY AUTENTICO Alternator/Front-runner JENGIBRE Stalker EL PATRULLERO Alternator/Stalker RITMO DE BOLERO Alternator/Stalker
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE
Cross Country Pick Four - Race 3 Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 83 • Purse: $115,000 • Post: 4:54P OP - R7 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CAPITAL CONNECTION is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAPITAL CONNECTION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COACH JIMI D: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RONALDINHO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average E quibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAPITAL CONNECTION COACH JIMI D RONALDINHO
Unknown Running Style: GO THE DISTANCE (15/1) [Jockey: Arrieta Francisco - Trainer: Anderson Doug L], OKIE CLIPPER (30/1) [Jockey: Court Jon Kenton - Trainer: Murphy Travis Swan], STORMS HOME (12/1) [Jockey: Asmussen Erik - Trainer: Asmussen Steven M
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCAPITAL CONNECTION Front-runner COACH JIMI D Front-runner RONALDINHO Front-runner CHARBON Alternator/Trailer HAILSTORM Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - SA - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 91
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STATE BRED ALLOWANCE. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 CITIZEN K 5/1
# 5 MR BRIZEL 15/1
# 7 BACKCHAT 2/1
My selection here is CITIZEN K. The average Equibase class figure of 88 makes this entrant hard to beat. Dibona has this gelding racing well and is a competitive selection based on the solid Equibase Speed Figures put up in route races as of late. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. MR BRIZEL - Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last competition. He has put up quite good figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this group of horses. BACKCHAT - Must be considered in here if only for the solid Equibase speed fig put up in the last race. Has to be given a shot versus this group of horses in this race displaying strong numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 84 under similar conditions.
Oaklawn Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 65
Rating:
#2 LINE RUNNER (ML=5/1)
#6 RUN FOR HOME (ML=4/1)
LINE RUNNER - Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished in the place spot easily ahead of the 3rd place horse in her last contest. This horse is at the top in earnings per start. She looks nice in today's event. RUN FOR HOME - Just view her most recent figure, 61. That one looks good in this group. A strong handicapping angle is Lasix - 1st time. Martin gives it to this one for this clash. Maiden is switching to the main track, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to be a winner for the first-time.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SEVEN NATTY PATTY (ML=5/2), #4 TANDI SUE (ML=3/1), #7 UNION DAME (ML=7/2),
SEVEN NATTY PATTY - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked ready recently. TANDI SUE - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line of 3/1. Will probably be way back with too much to do down the homestretch. UNION DAME - This less than sharp equine showed very liitle last time finishing seventh. No reason to expect any improvement in today's event. When looking at today's class figure, she will have to record a better rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt route.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LINE RUNNER - A longshot with the top Power Rating. What more could you ask for?
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #2 LINE RUNNER to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 68
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 8 GREENBACK BOOGIE DC 3/1
# 5 AB WHAT A KISS 6/1
# 9 SS CANDY CRUSH 7/2
GREENBACK BOOGIE DC is the top bet in this race. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been strong - 64 avg - of late. Make a note that this entrant runs with second time Lasix today. The speed rating of 64 from her most recent race looks quite good in here. AB WHAT A KISS - Alexander has her trained solidly to break speedily out of the starting gate. Is a contender - given the 64 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. SS CANDY CRUSH - Posted a strong speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest.
Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 60
Rating:
#2 OPALINE (ML=9/5)
OPALINE - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Rivelli brings her right back. I recommend you stay with this hot filly. Just look at her most recent speed figure, 62. That one fits in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HALLIE'S RAINBOW (ML=3/1), #6 YOU'RE A DANDY (ML=7/2), #5 STARSOVERPARADISE (ML=6/1),
HALLIE'S RAINBOW - Don't feel this horse will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. YOU'RE A DANDY - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but she fails regularly. Don't believe this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure. STARSOVERPARADISE - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when checking the most recent showings. This mount ran a disappointing speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat today running that rating.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #2 OPALINE to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Stephen Nover
double-dime bet LALakers+ 3.5
Football Jesus LV
website pick
Pending from wed
4/14 wk 3 UFL Houston Roughnecks+3...more later
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