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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/19/24
April 19, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know”
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Rhino; 4-Special Club; 6-Bert’s Prospect.
Backups/savers: None.
Forecast: Any one of the three listed above can win the Friday opener, a mile grass event for state-bred maidens, so we’ll spread the race while preferring Rhino on top. The four-year-old gelding may have been a tad short when missing by a half-length over this course and distance in a similar affair last month in his first start since the summer of 2022. He returns showing the popular blinkers off angle while retaining regular pilot U. Rispoli, and with any kind of forward move he should be more than capable of earning his diploma in what will be just his fourth career start. Special Club may be more comfortable on dirt but he's a strong fit on numbers and ran reasonably well under these conditions when a close fourth two races back. Bert’s Prospect was a close third in the same race our top pick exits after attempting to rally in close quarters along the rail in the final furlong when beaten just under two lengths. He may have less room for improvement that the two listed above him but should get the patient ride he needs with the switch to M. Smith.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Whimsical Heir
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Whimsical Heir towers over this field based on the speed figure she earned when breaking her maiden vs. $50,000 claimers here last month, and while this severe class drop following that win to the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 hardly is a sign of confidence, the Mark Glatt-trained 5-year-old mare will beat these if she has at least one good one left. Sparingly campaigned throughout her five race career, she’s obviously had problems, and her connections clearly subscribe to the theory that you never want to be the last one to own a claiming horse. The barn uses K. Frey quite a bit, so the jockey switch from D. Herrera (who moves to Crown of Hope) should be of little concern. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line but almost certain to go lower, the daughter of Orb seems like a logical rolling exotic single in a race that probably should be treated with a bit of care.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: 1-Naismith; 5-Des Doigts.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: There’s nothing in this restricted $25,000 claiming turf sprint to have confidence in, so we suggest you include as many as you can afford. Small ticket players may try to survive and advance using just the two listed above. Naismith offers little value in the win pool at 8/5 on the morning line in his first start in almost a year, and he’s winless in six starts over the local lawn, but he’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post, has back numbers that fit, and is a major player by default. Des Doigts may be the quickest in the field and at this level could get brave if he can get away with soft early splits. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Flash That Smile; 8-Moonlight Tryst; 1-Raising Silver.
Backups/Savers: 6-Danzing Flyer.
Forecast: This appears to be a stronger than par maiden special weight abbreviated sprint for California-bred fillies and mares that includes a couple of fast-working first timers that should attract plenty of support on the tote. Flash That Smile is bred to win right now (Smiling Tiger) and has done everything in the a.m. like a filly with some quality. She’s never been asked for her best in her team drills for S. McCarthy but has bested everything led up to her and always has finished with something left in the tank. The barn doesn’t win often with debut runners but this one might prove to be the exception to the rule. Moonlight Tryst is a state-bred daughter of American Pharoah from the Dave Hofmans barn with series of quick workouts that should have her plenty fit. She’s been asked a bit in the morning to display her best stuff (unlike ‘Smile, who never has) but from her preferred outside draw she should be able to pop and go or settle and stalk. Raising Silver was stuck along the deeper inside in her debut last July at Del Mar and was sloppy changing leads, but still stayed on bravely to be second. She was then sent home. Worth noting is that upon her return she was scratched out of an eight runner field in mid-March (breezed six days later) and then failed to draw in from the also-eligible list April 7 (breezed the next day). She’s a first time Lasix user for C. Gaines and picks up hot rider A. Fresu, so if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of Nyquist is likely to have a major say in it.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: 3-Exultation; 1-Hot Box.
Backups/savers: 6-Jetovator.
ForecastExultation has crossed the wire first in six his last 10 starts (he lost one via DQ, though he gained one, too) but in none of those outings was the separation more than three-quarters of a length, and in five of the races the margin was a nose. So, if you like him today, be prepared to sweat it out. First or second in 17 of 25 starts, the veteran gelding has been freshened since mid-February but always does well with time in between races and a recent five furlong bullet workout (1:00h) over the Tapeta training track should have him primed and ready. Hot Box, a close third in the same race our top pick exits, should be on or near the lead throughout from his favorable rail post. If he can clear early (and he might) the B. Koriner-trained son gelding could get very brave.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 7-Nauvoo; 6-Mike Operator.
Backups/savers: 1-Atomic Drops.
Forecast: Nauvoo won back-to-back races in February by a total of 22 lengths, then was claimed by C. Alba and returned to earth. After a pair of dull, off the board finishes for his new trainer, the son of Not This Time returns to the $20,000 ranks (his claim level) and may snap back to life, though at 2-1 on the morning line he won’t offer a whole lot of value. Mike Operator, a five time winner over the Santa Anita main track, is a dyed-in-the-wool front runner, and after wiring the field in three straight dirt outings before being virtually eased in an ill-advised grass start he returns to his favorite surface and is likely to regain his best form. His best speed figures don’t match up well with Nauvoo’s, but if that one doesn’t fire this gelding is the logical alternative.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 3-I’m a Lucky Man; 4-Neon Lights.
Backups/savers: 6-Eddie’s Last.
Forecast: I’m a Lucky Man easily handled a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming field over this course and distance last month and it is significant that the high percentage trainer M. Glatt wheels him back protected in this starter’s allowance event. Lightly raced with plenty of room for further improvement, the son of Dads Caps projects to be on the lead once again, so with another forward move could come right back and win again, this time at or near his generous morning line of 6-1. Neon Lights is fastest on numbers and is strictly the one to beat. In the frame in five of seven career starts over the local lawn, the S. Knapp-trained gelding has the ideal stalking style to avoid trouble and should have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. He’s reunited with U. Rispoli, who won on him two runs back.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 5-Soldatna
Backups/savers: 7-Chrome to Riches.
Forecast: Let’s take a stand in this bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler with Soldatna, who may not be all that much but is unexposed under these conditions and could easily leave his previous form behind. The son of Girvin returns to the main track, stretches out for the first time, makes just his fourth career start (and his second off a long layoff) and drops significantly in class for a hot barn that shows positive stats in each of the angles listed above. We wouldn’t be surprised in the least if this gray gelding takes the lead early and wire the field, so at or near his morning line of 4-1 there’s a reasonable gamble to be had.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Rebalation; 4-Phenom.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Rebalation makes her first start following a Bay Area $25,000 claim by an outfit that has superior stats with this angle, so this veteran mare – successful in eight races from just 18 starts and protected by trainer L. Barocio – has a legitimate chance to produce a winning late bid in this abbreviated turf dash for fillies and mares. Phenom is the logical favorite and one to fear most. A three time winner over the local lawn and effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position, the daughter of Midnight Storm is racing in excellent form and shows a strong and healthy work pattern since her most recent winning outing in mid-March.
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
April 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card to begin the weekend and the 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)
1-Go Viral (12-1)-Price shot hasn't clicked at this TM level but was Svendsen's choice over #3. Was racing in the pocket into a 55.1 opening half in last, and the race set up for a closer. Wilkinson trainee could be sitting a big try, and this driver-trainer combo is posting 30% winners.
4-Miki's Magic Ride (5-1)-Took a picture in a race that went too fast early on, and Luke Plano stayed inside off the pace. Could get a similar trip and isn't out of place with this crew.
6-JP Jetty (5/2)-Went the 2nd half in .55 and James Kennedy may leave this time and get a close-up seat. Looks like a main player and should be in striking range at the top of the lane.
Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)
4-Officer Jim (5-1)-Comes off his best effort at the meet against Open company. Using at a square price and will look for the upswing to continue.
6-Unfiltered (6-1)-Comes off a very game effort to cash a 2nd place check and was parked the mile. Comes right back and is a main player if the previous race didn't take too much out of the 6-year-old.
7-A Major Omen (3-1)-Beaten even money chalk was used hard in the opening quarter. Needs a better trip and really wasn't blocked down the lane. Program comments may cause the Longo trainee to be over bet but could make amends tonight.
Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)
3-Seek And Destroy (4-1)-Doesn't win often but 3 of the last 4 races have been good tries, the only exception was when Rene Goulet didn't steer his own. Looks like a suck-around candidate and should be a fair price.
4-Love To Flirt (6-1)-Plano steers as the trainer hands him the lines and has been trying hard. Cashes checks and is camera shy but the price should be right to take a swing.
7-The Last Waltz (7/2)-Handled the last group after breaking stride at the start. Not expecting any value but looks like the one to beat despite the outside draw.
Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)
2-Outlaw Blue By You (5-1)-This is quite the taffy pull and will look to a top pilot with an inside post draw in this formless group. Old-timer still has enough speed to win here and should get an efficient trip.
7-Watchmeneighneigh (10-1)-Not sure how much beating a higher TM level here on 2-25 matters, and now makes the 3rd start for the Longo barn. Needs a trip but the last race wasn't bad and was pace compromised. Will look for an aggressive steer once the wings fold.
0.20 Pick 4
1,4,6/4,6,7/3,4,7/2,7
Total Bet=$10.80
Keeneland Late Pick 4 Friday, April 19
April 19, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
KEENLAND LATE PICK 4
Friday, April 19, 2024
Keeneland’s 50-cent Late Pick 4 drew more than $1 million in bets the first two Fridays of the meet. Get in on the action this Friday, April 18, will double-digit entries in three races surrounding the featured Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes.
KEE 7th race (4:12 p.m. EST) -- JUST MIGHT pressed fast fractions on a ‘good’ turf the last time he ran at Keeneland and led in mid-stretch before the closers passed by to get the money. He draws post 11 again but should be able to make better use of his speed in this field and enhance his $565k grass bankroll. OUTLAW KID earned a 100 Beyer speed figure when he won off a similar layoff to begin his 3-year-old season last summer on the Belmont lawn. He should sit a good stalking trip from just off the pace with Gaffalione summoned to ride. OCEANIC packs late wallop but must once again negotiate a crowded field from behind. He rallied wide and into photo-finish view behind 2022 Breeders Cup Turf champion Caravel and 2023 BC Turf favorite Golden Pal in a pair of Grade 2 stakes at Keeneland.
KEE 8th race (4:44 p.m. EST) -- DREAMLIKE, multiple graded stakes-placed at 1-1/8 miles as a 2-year-old, will be a solo play on a lot of Pick 4 tickets in his seasonal debut in allowance company. He is by champion Gun Runner (12-19, $15.9 million), who blossomed with age and closed his career with six consecutive victories in Grade 1 competition. HAVILDAR willingly chased but couldn’t reach the two favorites in his seasonal debut sprinting, but he has plenty of long-distance experience in his second start for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., who belies his 1-for-15 sprint-to-route record this year.
KEE 9th race (5:16 p.m. EST) -- RAGING SEA tracked the pace in-hand until the far turn but had to survive long duels with the favorites to win a 1-1/8-mile allowance and Grade 3 Comely Stakes at the same distance. Both races produced multiple winners and today’s shorter test in the $300,000 Doubledogdare Stakes plays to her favor for trainer Chad Brown, who excels with layoff types. SCYLLA, a smashing debut winner at Keeneland and follow-up allowance runaway at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old, led between calls late in her seasonal debut but lost by a neck to stakes-winning miler Beth’s Dream (6-13, $298k). She shows a pair of bullet breezes since then and is a deserving favorite in her first stakes try.
KEE 10th race (5:48 p.m. EST) -- NORTHERN INVADER is the only turf stakes winner in the field but he “lacked the required punch while flopping back to his left lead” and finished behind three double-digit longshots as the favorite last out. He lost as the odds-on choice in his last three starts and has post 11 to deal with today. If the favorite doesn’t win, several shippers from around the country make for an intriguing Pick 4 finale. NOISES OFF upstaged a series of runner-up finishes with a maiden-breaking turf romp and front-end allowance score on the surface switch late in his sophomore season. SCOOBIE QUANDO had trouble lines in both of his turf races, lacking stretch kick and posing no threat to multiple Grade 1-placed winner Webslinger. But he appears rounding to a good effort in the third start of a cycle and is one of several price plays to use on the ticket.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
KEE 7th Race: 6, 10, 11
KEE 8th Race: 3, 4
KEE 9th Race: 1, 3
KEE 10th Race: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $48
Jon White: Looking Forward to Seeing 10 Kentucky Derby Candidates
April 18, 2024 | By Jon White
As the 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby approaches, there are 10 horses I am looking forward to seeing in the 1 1/4-mile classic at Churchill Downs on May 4. These 10 horses are listed below in order of where they rank on my current Top 10:
1. FOREVER YOUNG
More than any other horse, I am looking forward to seeing Forever Young run in the Kentucky Derby. He continues to hold the No. 1 spot on my Top 10.
Forever Young is five for five. He made a splash in Japan last year before winning the Group III Saudi Derby and Group II UAE Derby this year.
While I have much respect for both Fierceness and Sierra Leone, I am picking Forever Young to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.
BloodHorse’s Sean Collins reported that Forever Young arrived at Churchill Downs from Dubai “early in the morning April 13 and has begun to settle in over the dirt track he’ll call home for the next three weeks. Remaining in Dubai after winning the Group II UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse March 30, Forever Young departed the morning of April 10. After a pit stop in Brussels, Belgium, the undefeated colt landed in Chicago around 11:15 p.m.
“Transported to the Chicago Import Quarantine facility in West Dundee, Ill., Forever Young spent the typical time of 42 hours in quarantine before being cleared the night of April 12. By 9 p.m., he was on the road and arrived at Churchill Downs at 4:15 a.m. the next morning.”
Forever Young visited the main track at Churchill Downs for the first time last Sunday (April 14).
One reason Forever Young is my choice to win the Kentucky Derby is I believe that he is Japan’s best horse so far to try and win this race. Is he better than Derma Sotogake? I think so. Derma Sotogake last year won the UAE Derby, finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby, then ran a strong second in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Forever Young, not Derma Sotogake, has the distinction of being Japan’s highest-rated dirt 2-year-old in that country’s history.
Derma Sotogake lost three of his six starts in Japan as a 2-year-old, while Forever Young won all three of his races in Japan at 2.
In Derma Sotogake’s 3-year-old debut, he lost by 2 3/4 lengths when finishing third in the Saudi Derby at 1,600 meters (about one mile). He then won the UAE Derby at 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) by 5 1/2 lengths.
In Forever Young’s 3-year-old debut, the Real Steel colt rallied in the stretch and got up in the very last jump to win the Saudi Derby by a nose. He then won the UAE Derby by two lengths.
According to Thoro-Graph, Forever Young ran better than Derma Sotogake in both the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby.
As I have written many times, while I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
The Thoro-Graph number for Derma Sotogake’s Saudi Derby effort was a 6 1/2. Forever Young’s number in this year’s Saudi Derby was a 1.
Derma Sotogake improved dramatically to a Thoro-Graph number of 1 1/2 in the UAE Derby. But even that excellent number was not as good as Forever Young’s when he won the UAE Derby this year.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote this week: “What can you say about a horse who wins in Japan getting a 5 3/4 Thoro-Graph number, however that is computed, then travels to Saudi Arabia for the [about] one-mile Saudi Derby and runs a 1 Thoro-Graph number, winning despite a wide trip, not changing leads down that long stretch, and still closing relentlessly to nail a pretty fast American runner [Book’em Danno]. With such a hard race under him he then travels to Dubai for the UAE Derby, stretching out to [about] 1 3/16 miles against a much stronger field, is forced to go wide again, and runs down a 4-year-old Argentine-bred colt who was opening up a five-length lead on the rest of the field. Not only did Forever Young win by two lengths and not bounce off the Saudi Derby, he ran another 1 Thoro-Graph number, giving him the fastest back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. That was backed up by his Ragozin pairing of 6 and 6, also the fastest back-back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. So now the question is, what should we expect in the Kentucky Derby, with him having to travel again? He did arrive safely, so the first step is out of the way. This colt seems to have a very high ceiling and he is undefeated in three countries. Let’s say the Japanese are due after several failed attempts by horses far slower than Forever Young. So if not now, when?”
Haskin had noted two weeks ago that, with Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 in Saudi Arabia and 1 in Dubai, “no 3-year-old has even come close to running back-to-back numbers that fast, and the fact that he was able to pair up that number strongly suggests he can now move forward off it.”
Yes, that’s what Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph pattern strongly suggests. I will not be surprised if he does indeed move forward off his UAE Derby performance.
In my opinion, adding to the distinct possibility that Forever Young will make a forward move in the Kentucky Derby is he’s trained by Yoshito Yahagi. I have seen enough of Yahagi’s work to consider him to be an elite horseman. I expect Yahagi to have Forever Young as ready as humanly possible to run a biggie on the first Saturday in May. Yahagi being in Forever Young’s corner is a major reason I think this colt represents Japan’s best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
I became a believer in Yahagi when he won not one, but two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.
In 2022, Yahagi won the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race, with Panthalassa. As a prime example of Yahagi’s tremendous ability as a trainer, Panthalassa had not raced on dirt prior to the Saudi Cup.
I’ve heard a number of people express their concern that Forever Young is likely to have to deal with dirt kickback in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, something he pretty much did not encounter in either the Saudi Derby or UAE Derby due to being kept wide in those races.
“For the most part, those ground-conceding tactics [in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby] have been by design to keep Forever Young from being pelted by kickback from horses in front of him,” T.D. Thornton wrote for the Thoroughbred Daily News this week. “His connections are on record as saying that the colt dislikes the dirt spray, and he was equipped with a sort of facemask (like blinkers without the cups) in his last race at Meydan.
“Is Forever Young’s aversion to kickback a reason to discount his chances in the Kentucky Derby? Probably not if you otherwise like his chances…He won three times in Japan at age 2 despite being in spots where he was forced to take at least some kickback.”
These days we constantly see Japan succeed in major Thoroughbred races all over the globe.
I wrote this for Xpressbet.com prior to this year’s Saudi Cup: “How much of a force have the Japanese become in Thoroughbred racing? One need not look past the exploits of Japan’s Equinox, a fantastic equine athlete widely regarded as the best racehorse on the planet last year.”
If the exceptionally swift Skelly could talk, I have no doubt that he would tell you how difficult it is to beat a Japanese horse.
Just last Saturday at Oaklawn Park, Skelly won the Grade III Count Fleet Sprint Handicap in front-running fashion by three lengths. He set a torrid pace (:21.52, :43.88, :56.04) and completed his six-furlong trip in 1:08.82.
Skelly now has won eight of his last nine starts. And who was the only horse to defeat Skelly during those nine starts? It was none other than a Japanese horse by the name of Remake in the Group I, $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen on March 30.
Prior to this year’s Saudi Cup, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote: “Even as Japanese racehorses have ascended over the last decade, becoming the most powerful force in international competition, the race the Japanese most covet, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, has eluded them. In fact, a Japanese horse easily could win a Kentucky Derby before one wins an Arc. It could happen as soon as this year…Forever Young at this early stage of his career looks as strong as any Japanese 3-year-old with designs on the [Kentucky] Derby.”
Any way you slice it, the record by UAE Derby starters in the Kentucky Derby is a terrible 0 for 19. In fact, no UAE Derby participant has finished better than fifth in the Run for the Roses.
But I believe that Forever Young might have what it takes to finally bring an end to the Kentucky Derby drought by UAE starters.
2. FIERCENESS
I am looking forward to seeing whether the “good” or the “bad” Fierceness shows up in the Kentucky Derby.
If it’s the Fierceness who won his first career start by 11 1/4 lengths, the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths and the Grade I Florida Derby by a record 13 1/2 lengths, there is no question that he will be mighty tough to beat in the Kentucky Derby.
Saffie Joseph Jr. trains Kentucky Derby candidate Catalytic, who finished a distant second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby.
“If Fierceness runs back to his last race nobody beats him,” Joseph said to Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch on Monday (April 15). “Sierra Leone is obviously second best and after that it’s wide open. I think my horse has a lot of room to improve. The [Kentucky] Derby is the kind of race first you get there, and then you hope for the best.”
Fierceness has suffered two stinging defeats in his five starts to date. Backed down to 1-2 favoritism in the Grade I Champagne Stakes last year, the Kentucky-bred City of Light colt lost by 20 1/4 lengths while finishing seventh. Sent away as a 1-5 favorite in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes in his 2024 debut, he lost by 3 1/2 lengths while finishing third.
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Fierceness. If you ask me, Fierceness has looked something like an American version of Europe’s supremely talented but also unreliable Auguste Rodin.
Auguste Rodin has won seven of his last 10 starts, highlighted by victories in such important events as the Group I Epsom Derby, Group I Irish Derby, Group I Irish Champion Stakes and Grade I BC Turf.
But also in his last 10 races, Auguste Rodin ran a stinker three times. He lost by 21 3/4 lengths when finishing 12th in England’s Group I Two Thousand Guineas. He was eased home when finishing last in the Group I King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in England. And in Auguste Rodin’s most recent appearance under silks, he lost by 21 1/2 lengths when finishing 12th in the Group I Dubai Sheema Classic on March 30.
3. SIERRA LEONE
I am looking forward to seeing if Sierra Leone can make his move early enough to be first or second a furlong from home in the Kentucky Derby. That’s because if the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt is not first or second with a furlong to go, I believe the odds are against him winning based on what has occurred in the last 61 years.
As I noted for Xpressbet.com last week, of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners, 93% were first or second with a furlong to go.
In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 17, Sierra Leone was fourth a furlong out before charging home to prevail by a half-length for trainer Chad Brown.
In the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 6, Sierra Leone again was fourth a furlong out before rallying to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths.
At least Sierra Leone did manage to be in front by a head a furlong from home after trailing early in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last Dec. 2. That indicates it’s far from impossible that Sierra Leone will be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.
Look, I consider Sierra Leone to be a very talented colt. I certainly view him as a major player in the Kentucky Derby.
Not only has Sierra Leone won both starts this year, he’s been flattered by what two of his Risen Star victims subsequently achieved. Catching Freedom took the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 23. Resilience won the Grade II Wood Memorial on April 6.
However, based on Sierra Leone’s two performances this year, I just can’t help wondering if he will make his move early enough to be first or second with a furlong left to go on May 4. I find it easy to envision him coming on late to finish second, third or fourth.
The TDN’s Thornton has made what I think is an interesting observation regarding Sierra Leone’s Blue Grass victory.
“Despite being visually arresting, the timing of Sierra Leone’s finish was on the tepid side,” Thornton noted. “While the early part of the Blue Grass featured revved-up opening quarter-mile splits of :23.15 and :23.33 [for the first half-mile], Sierra Leone closed ground through a final furlong in :13.43. That’s the slowest last eighth among all the nine points-awarding preps run at 1 1/8 miles in 2023-24.”
Also, as I wrote last week, Sierra Leone’s reluctance to go into the starting gate prior to the Blue Grass has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It is true that Sierra Leone overcame such behavior and still won Blue Grass. But when Sierra Leone finds himself amidst a much larger crowd on hand for the Kentucky Derby, what if he acts like that again?
4. CATCHING FREEDOM
I am looking forward to seeing if Catching Freedom can become the first winner of the Louisiana Derby to go on and capture the Kentucky Derby since Grindstone all the way back in 1996.
A Kentucky-bred Constitution colt trained by Brad Cox, Catching Freedom rallied from last in a field of 11 to win the Louisiana Derby by one length.
Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom is a come-from-behind type who is rather iffy in my eyes as to whether he will be able to be first or second a furlong from home on May 4. Again, in the last 61 Kentucky Derbies, only four Kentucky Derby winners -- Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022 -- were not first or second a furlong out.
5. DORNOCH
I am looking forward to seeing if Dornoch can rebound after finishing fourth, 6 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Sierra Leone, in the Blue Grass.
Prior to the Blue Grass, Dornach won the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths in front-running fashion, though it must be pointed out that he took advantage of being in a race that was depleted by the scratches of Merit, Victory Avenue, Locked and Speak Easy.
Don’t forget that Dornoch is the only horse to have defeated Sierra Leone. Not only that, when Dornoch nosed out Sierra Leone in the Remsen, the Danny Gargan-trained colt did so despite bouncing off the inside rail during the stretch run. On the other hand, Sierra Leone ran a huge race from far off the pace and despite racing wide in the Remsen to barely lose, while Dornach benefited from a track that was playing very kind to inside speed.
Dornach, a Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt, is a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
6. HONOR MARIE
I am looking forward to seeing how Honor Marie does in the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the Louisiana Derby.
Honor Marie demonstrated a fondness for the main track at Churchill Downs last fall by posting two wins and a second from three starts. He stormed home to win the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after trailing early in the field of eight.
A Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt trained by Whit Beckman, Honor Marie is, to me, in the same boat as Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom in terms of being able to rally early enough to be first or second a furlong from home in the Kentucky Derby.
Honor Marie does not actually turn 3 until May 4, the date of the Kentucky Derby.
7. MYSTIK DAN
I am looking forward to seeing if Mystik Dan can show everyone that he is able to win a Grade I race on a fast track. His best performance by far to date came when he won the Grade III Southwest Stakes on a muddy track, an effort that produced a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
In his next start after the Southwest, Mystik Dan lost by 6 1/4 lengths on a fast track when finishing third to Muth and Just Steel in the Grade I Arkansas Derby.
A Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt trained by Kenny McPeek, Mystik Dan did record a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on dry land when he won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint by 7 3/4 lengths last Nov. 12 on Churchill’s main track.
As far as Mystik Dan is concerned, what if the Kentucky Derby is contested on a wet track? He no doubt will become a lot more appealing to bettors if Louisville does get the sort of weather that makes umbrellas important.
8. DOMESTIC PRODUCT
I am looking forward to seeing what Domestic Product can do if he gets a faster pace than when he won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. He won that race by just a neck and recorded only an 82 Beyer. But I think Domestic Product deserved extra credit for his come-from-behind victory due to a ridiculously slow early tempo (:25.25, :51.14, 1:16.21).
It takes a pretty darn good colt to close into a pace like that and win.
Chad Brown trains the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt.
9. ENDLESSLY
I am looking forward to seeing if Endlessly runs in the Kentucky Derby or the Grade II American Turf on the same card.
If Endlessly’s connections opt to go for the roses, I wouldn’t rule it out that he will give a good account of himself in his first start on dirt. All six of his races have been on turf or synthetic. Is he better on those surfaces than on dirt? I’d say that he probably is, especially since his workouts on dirt don’t exactly get the pulse racing.
But I am still willing to think Endlessly just might make his presence felt during the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby because it appears to me that he does have a great deal of ability. And any horse with a great deal of ability is always dangerous.
Trained by Michael McCarthy, Endlessly comes off an emphatic four-length win in the Grade III Jeff Ruby on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface. The Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt’s lone loss came when he finished eighth in the Grade I BC Juvenile Turf.
10. STRONGHOLD
I am looking forward to seeing how the winner of the Grade I Santa Anita Derby fares in the Kentucky Derby. You have to admire Stronghold’s consistency for trainer Phil D’Amato. The Kentucky-bred Ghostzapper colt has finished first or second in all six career starts.
It’s also to Stronghold’s credit that he earned his maiden diploma in a one-mile contest at Churchill Downs last Oct. 1. Among the vanquished on that occasion were fellow Kentucky Derby candidates Resilience and Track Phantom. Resilience recently won the Grade II Wood Memorial. Track Phantom won this year’s Grade III Lecomte.
DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM UPDATE
I came up with my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
Despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
The strikes for a number of Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Dornoch
Encino
Endlessly
Forever Young
Mystik Dan
Stronghold
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Domestic Product (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Sierra Leone (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)*
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
Deterministic (Categories 3 and 5)**
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Resilience (Categories 4 and 6)
Society Man (Categories 2 and 8)
THREE STRIKES
Common Defense (Categories 2, 4 and 5)
Epic Ride (Categories 1, 2 and 4)
Just a Touch (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
*Track Phantom’s only official strike is in Category 4 for not being able to improve or hold his position during the final furlong of the Louisiana Derby. Meanwhile, a horse gets a strike in Category 6 if blinkers are added or removed in a horse’s final start before the Kentucky Derby. The thinking behind this category is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not making an equipment change so late in the game. Indications are that Track Phantom is going to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby. If that does happen, while Track Phantom officially is a one-strike horse, I personally will be considering him a two-strike horse because of blinkers being added to his equipment on May 4.
**Trainer Christophe Clement said this week that Deterministic, who finished eighth as a 4-5 favorite in the Wood Memorial, is “unlikely” to run in the Kentucky Derby. “He’s not in or out because a decision has not been made, but it’s unlikely he will run in the race based on the way he ran last time.” Clemente added that he will talk to the owners later this week and a decision on the Kentucky Derby will be made after that.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2023, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
MY EARLY KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS
My updated early Kentucky Derby odds:
3-1 Fierceness
7-2 Sierra Leone
8-1 Forever Young
10-1 Catching Freedom
12-1 Just a Touch
20-1 Domestic Product
20-1 Dornoch
20-1 Encino
20-1 Endlessly
20-1 Honor Marie
20-1 Just Steel
20-1 Mystik Dan
20-1 Resilience
20-1 Stronghold
20-1 T O Password
20-1 Track Phantom
30-1 Catalytic
30-1 Society Man
30-1 West Saratoga
50-1 Grand Mo the First
NOTE: Deterministic is not listed because, as mentioned earlier, he is “unlikely” to run in the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Christophe Clement.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Master of The Seas debuts at No. 4 on the Top 10 in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll this week following his clear-cut 2 1/4-length win as a 3-5 favorite in Keeneland’s Grade I, $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile last Friday (April 12). Charlie Appleby trains the 6-year-old Irish-bred Dubawi gelding.
Adare Manor also is a newcomer on the Top 10 this week after her decisive 5 1/2-length win as a 3-5 favorite in Oaklawn Park’s Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap last Saturay. Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the 5-year-old Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo mare led past every pole in the $1.25 million event.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 298 Senor Buscador (23)
2. 243 National Treasure (4)
3. 150 Idiomatic (3)
4. 143 Master of The Seas
5. 141 White Abarrio
6. 97 Saudi Crown
7. 96 Adare Manor
8. 86 First Mission
9. 71 Newgate
10. 59 Skelly
Though they did not make the Top 10, Laurel River received two first-place votes, while The Chosen Vron received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Even though Encino won Keeneland’s Grade III Lexington Stakes last Saturday, he did not crack the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 316 Sierra Leone (22)
2. 303 Fierceness (10)
3. 235 Muth (1)
4. 185 Catching Freedom
5. 157 Stronghold
6. 118 Nysos
7. 97 Forever Young
8. 82 Resilience
9. 57 Just a Touch
10. 49 Endlessly
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #2
Keeneland - Race #5
Picks Notes #3 Baltimore Heart Promise this is the last time you'll hear about him unless he comes with something drastically better today, but I still don't think he's had a truly fair go of things on the turf yet. Price should be enough to take a flyer. #9 Beer Run He can be tough here, but he hasn't yet shown that blazing speed you sometimes see with this barn, so I can see him having some company and being a bit vulnerable again late. #5 Monsieur Candy He woke up on the turf last time out, but the waters get a lot deeper this time around. Probably a reach, but so is the one I have on top -- think this is a fun race. Race Summary Tough call for me on Beer Run, but I'm hoping he'll take some pressure and allow Baltimore Heart to save some ground near the inside while just in behind the splits.
Keeneland - Race #9
Picks Notes #10 Greek Order Not sure he's going to be much of a price, but he has Euro form that looks competitive if he's able to bring it off the bench. Get a look at him, but I imagine he'll be tough. #9 Dude N Colorado He has been in the frame in a couple graded stakes tries, and there are some tough names in the company lines here compared to the rest in this spot. #6 John Dutton He's probably a little light to actually win this, but he should be in a pretty dreamy spot heading into the far turn and might outrun his price. Race Summary Greek Order and Dude N Colorado seem like the pair to get past in this one, but I'll try to get John Dutton in the picture at an overlaid price with some back Parx turf form that might play well today.
Picks Notes #4 Loved An aggressive kind of ride might work in her favor against this group that includes some other forward players, but none who seem completely committed to the front end. Just let her out a notch along the way? #3 Scylla Feels like a top-heavy race with these two likely to settle the score. This one has a huge pedigree and has already been toying with becoming a pretty serious horse. #6 Hidden Connection She was overbet at Sam Houston last out, but that was a dud either way you cut it. Her previous tries might put her in a pretty good spot behind the top choice early. I don't know... Race Summary Loved and Scylla might wind up in a cat-and-mouse game right up on the splits, but I think the former has a bit more to offer on the tote board in what really feels like a two-horse race.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #1
Keeneland - Race #3
Picks Notes #2 AVA’S STORM (4-1) Didn’t duplicate improved try two back, gets blinkers, good value play. #3 OH MACARENA (3-1) Set pace long way in turf-to-dirt route, breezed 4F in :35-4/5 at Keeneland. #1 BOLT ON THE ROCKS (6-1) Showed a pulse in pair of 6F sprints, added ground a plus. Race Summary Taking a stand against morning-line favorite GREYHOUND STATION, who just missed in her only start for a $30,000 tag sprinting but whose company in that race was horrible. Save for the fourth-place finisher who broke her maiden for $15,000 and won again for $25,000, her four other rivals are a combined 0-for-9 since then, beaten a combined 170 lengths. AVA’S STORM gets the call on the class drop with blinkers on for the first time. She improved in a solid MSW field on Turfway Park’s all-weather track, then took money but raced evenly behind $91k earner Sassy Walker, who earned her top speed figure that day. Bet to win and place.
Keeneland - Race #4
Picks Notes #5 STAND BY YOU (8-1) Company lines and work tab translate to live longshot for new barn. #1 WUPKAR (6-5) Exits allowance ranks, has speed and the rail for third start of cycle. #6 HOPE OVER FEAR (10-1) Ran into early trouble on cutback from route, sheds 8 pounds. Race Summary STAND BY YOU appears an all-or-nothing type play in her seasonal debut. She switches barns after two sub-par efforts last fall at Penn National. But she ran well enough in her prior starts against the likes of Bella Prima (6-21, $99k), Empire Pass (9-21, $247k) and Seeking The Dream (6-26, $195k) to warrant a long look in here off a series of encouraging workouts. Bet to win and place and play a 5/1,6/ALL trifecta.
Picks Notes #12 ORIZZONTE (9-2) Strong win-early bloodlines, can do just that off useful debut, gets Lasix. #8 RUN JALEN RUN (9-5) Three seconds and three thirds in six sprint attempts thus far. #6 SAVE THE TREES (15-1) Pair of bullet works in :47 flat from the gate, price attached. Race Summary ORIZZONTE was out-kicked by the two favorites in an otherwise good debut at Fair Grounds, when he stalked the pace between rivals and steadied slightly in mid-stretch. His multiple Grade 1-winning sire, Union Rags, fell a head short of a perfect 2-year-old season and his dam, Brownie Points, was multiple Grade 3-placed in her first year of racing. Bet to win and place.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 10 Allowance • 550 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 10:03 QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * BIG LEW LOVE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RAYS A REBEL: Quar ter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. KISS MY ROANA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RUNNIN MANN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. BIG LEW LOVE RAYS A REBEL KISS MY ROANA RUNNIN MANN
Line
Class
Speed
FigureDTL CRAZY WAGON Slow CRYPTO Average BUCKO Average BARBED WIRE HALO Average DOC BON SCOTT Average KISS MY ROANA Average RUNNIN MANN Fast DASHING DOCTOR STONE Average BIG LEW LOVE Average RAYS A REBEL Average
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita ParkPURCHASE
Santa Anita Park - Race 8 Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 83 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 4:43P FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * POTENTIAL SPAM: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, an d the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. CHROME TO RICHES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. POTENTIAL SPAM CHROME TO RICHES
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCHROME TO RICHES Alternator/Stalker AUDIBLE SILENCE Alternator/Stalker TAPIT DOWN Alternator/Stalker TOPPERS WAGER Alternator/Trailer POTENTIAL SPAM Alternator/Trailer BIG DRINKER Alternator/Non-contender LUTHER PASS Alternator/Non-contender SOLDATNA Alternator/Non-contender CLASSIC ALPHIE Alternator/Non-contender RUNNING FOR COSI Alternator/Non-contender
Laurel - Race #10 - Post: 4:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 69
Rating:
#9 SUPER NEEDY (ML=3/1)
SUPER NEEDY - Has discovered a good situation this time out.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 RUN FOR REAGAN (ML=9/5), #8 MAT MATTERS (ML=7/2), #4 PERSPICACIOUS BOY (ML=8/1),
RUN FOR REAGAN - No good fortune for this horse in a sprint event over the last 60 days tells me that this gelding is in a very difficult spot MAT MATTERS - Tough to take this mount at this price after the finish position (fourth) in the last affair. Can't play this pony in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event of late. PERSPICACIOUS BOY - Ran squirrelly on March 8th. Be leery this time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #9 SUPER NEEDY on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 9 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 43
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 8 MORNING GORDITA 6/5
# 5 DRIVING 7/2
# 7 CRUISE TALK 10/1
MORNING GORDITA looks like the bet in here. Looks formidable against this field and should be one of the leaders. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This one ranks at the top in this field. DRIVING - With a nice class fig average of 56, has one of the best class advantages in this group. CRUISE TALK - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Johnson running at this distance are the best in this group. Opposing a much less demanding field of horses than last time out.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 97
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF THEIR LAST THREE STARTS. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 19, 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 19, 2023 ALLOWED 8 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 10 ATOMIC TONE 15/1
# 1 CITRUS BAY 8/1
# 9 AIR COMBAT 5/2
My pick for this race is ATOMIC TONE and could score at a price in here. This gelding with Esquivel in the irons makes him a key contender. Players should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses. CITRUS BAY - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last race. AIR COMBAT - Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is formidable for this equine. Has been moving in the most competitive company of the group of horses in this race as of late.
Gulfstream Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 62
Rating:
#2 QUEEN HONESTY (ML=2/1)
#4 KHOZANKA (ML=10/1)
QUEEN HONESTY - You have to be keen on that most recent race speed fig, 57, which is the best last race speed rating of this field. KHOZANKA - Garoffalo has this filly entered in the perfect event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 TAKING IT ALL (ML=5/2), #3 DOCTOR DAISY (ML=6/1),
TAKING IT ALL - The Equibase speed figures are going downward. I'm not investing on this mount off of that trend. DOCTOR DAISY - 6/1 is too short of a price to take on this one.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #2 QUEEN HONESTY is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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