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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/20/24
April 20, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, April 20, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Beef Winslow
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Beef Winslow always was a solid sprinter/middle distance performer but has taken his game to a new level since joining the Mark Glatt barn via a $32,000 claim last August. His speed figures have skyrocketed, and though second at even money in a similar Hillside turf sprint last time out in mid-February the son of Honor Code lost little in defeat (he was more than three lengths clear of the rest) while maintaining his razor sharp form. A three time winner over the local lawn, he possesses an ideal stalking style for this tricky downhill layoff and picks up the barn’s “go-to” rider A. Fresu (27%, strong ROI), so we’re expecting him to get back on track today as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Jai Ho
Backups/savers: 9-Precipice; 1-Sabres.
Forecast: Trainer Mark Glatt has three entered in this $50,000 maiden claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares, the most intriguing of which is Jai Ho, who displayed some ability when facing much tougher straight maiden types in her only previous outing over the local lawn almost a year ago. The daughter of Mendelssohn finished a non-threatening seventh in that race but was green early and then was allowed to finish mostly on her own in traffic while beaten only three lengths before galloping out quite well. She was entered back two months later but scratched and then disappeared; however, her comeback workouts both here and at San Luis Rey Downs are strong for a barn that has a superior record with layoff runners. She was a $175,000 Timonium 2-year-old in training sale purchase so we’re a little surprised she’s returning for a tag, but Glatt can get aggressive with these sparingly raced types, so let’s assume she is fit, ready, and well-spotted for a win.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Normandy Landing; 3-Duran
Backups/savers: 4-Nuclear.
Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this five-runner straight maiden main track miler for older horses, so we won’t get too involved. Normandy Landing has rising speed figures for B. Baffert, and with another forward move should be set to earn his diploma in his fourth career start. Second in a similar affair over this track and distance last month, the son of Gun Runner – a $1.05 million yearling purchase – projects to settle just off the pace and then have every chance to grind out a win. Duran finished a nose behind our top pick when third in that race, though he’s already had five chances and probably has less room to improve.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10-J Dutton; 2-Western Grit; 7-Travelin’ Show.
Backups/savers: 6-Motivating Force; 9-Ignatowski.
Forecast: We’re not crazy about the outside 10-post draw, but Triple Crown-nominated J Dutton, always fairly well regarded and trying grass for the first time, really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this California-bred sprint that came up soft. The son of Smiling Tiger has dirt numbers that are more than sufficient to beat this field, shows the popular blinkers off angle, and switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider E. Maldonado. If he’s ever going to amount to much, the L. Barocio-trained sophomore has to beat a field like this. Western Grit was worn down late when second over this course and distance in mid-January but has been off for three months, so his condition is suspect. He's a quick type and will take them as far as she can. Travelin’ Show is back sprinting where he belongs, and a repeat of his race before last – second when more than four clear of the rest – gives him a reasonable look.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Soul of Midnight; 4-Tiz Tok; 7-Aurelian Man.
Backups/savers: 5-Fifty Cinco.
Forecast: Soul of Midnight is a first-off-the-claim play for Gary Stute stretching out for the first time, and if he’s ever going to get the trip we suspect it will be in his first try. His sprint numbers fit with these, and both of his career wins were earned over the Santa Anita main track, so let’s hope he can get loose on the lead and then get brave. Tiz Tok is a one-paced plodding type that needs help up front, but he managed to finish a distant second in a similar affair last month and against this group not much better will be needed. Aurelian Man is faster on pure numbers than most of these, but those figs were earned on grass and his form on dirt is rather uninspiring. He’s worth tossing in somewhere. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 8-Antibes; 7-Ghostly Act; 5-Charley Pride
Backups/savers: 2-Handsome Red; 6-Finners Goldnsense.
Forecast: Nothing would surprise us in this wide open grass grab bag for older maiden state-bred turf sprinters (a split of the fourth race), so the best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Antibes has hit the board in four of seven starts and earned a career top speed figure when second facing similar over this course and distance last month. He’s a one-paced grinder, but if he can repeat his last he could finally graduate. Ghostly Act is a 13-race maiden and definitely not one to trust, but he has hit the board in his last six starts, so at least he’s knocking on the door. The first timer Charley Pride hasn’t shown a whole lot in the morning in his dirt track preparation, but with his pedigree (Arrogate x Enola Gay) he’s worth at least a little bit of a look. We can’t say he’s bred for it, but maybe he’ll enjoy grass.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:03 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket: 2-Judge Miller
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Judge Miller moves into graded stakes competition in just his fourth career start, but based on the speed figure he earned when demolishing a first level allowance field here last time out the son of Curlin should have little difficulty handling the class hike. The Mark Glatt-trained full brother to Clairiere won over a mile like today’s extra furlong won’t be an issue at all, so whether on the front end or from a stalking position this extremely talented four year old looks like a logical rolling exotic single while continuing on his way to bigger and better things.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:33 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: 3-Medoro
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Medoro is unbeaten in three starts, the last two victories earned in stakes events over this turf course, so there’s really no reason to pick against the Honor Code filly in this year’s renewal of the Providencia S.-G3. She likes to settle off the pace and then blast home, so this stretch out to nine furlongs makes her even tougher. The Peter Eurton-trained sophomore has produced a forward move on speed figures in each of her outings and we suspect the pattern will continue today. Regular rider A. Fresu stays aboard, so she has all of the makings of a logical, odds-on, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 3-Thorne House; 8-Man O Rose.
Backups/savers: 7-Fifth Street.
Forecast: Thorne House has been away for 11 months but has trained like he’s fit and ready and based strictly on speed figures he’s the fastest in the field. He’s good on grass, but maybe even better on dirt, and he’s a versatile type that can win on the lead or from a stalking/pressing position. Man O Rose earned a monster number when winning a first level allowance sprint by himself over this track and distance last month. This is a considerably tougher assignment, but from his cozy outside draw the J. Mullins-trained gelding should have clear sailing and every chance.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:33 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 8-Lincoln Hawk (Ire); 9-Calm Sea; 10-Order in Law
Backups/savers:3-Maltese Falcon.
Forecast: Here’s a 10-furlong grass affair for first level allowance older horses that offers an excellent price chance. Lincoln Hawk, in his third start off a layoff, stretches out again, is a solid fit on numbers, and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn. He likes to settle in mid-pack and produce a late run, and if he gets a decent pace to chase the Irish-bred gelding will offer enticing value at or near his morning line of 8-1. Calm Sea is a need-the-lead type, and if he’s gifted a soft front-running trip he could take this field a long way. Under identical conditions last time out, the four-year-old gelding made the running, set easy splits, responded late but was worn down in the final stages. The main concern is that he'll be lucky to enjoy a better journey today. Order and Law won here at this trip two runs back with a good figure but was a tad below form in his more recent outing. Despite the extreme outside draw, the P. Eurton-trained son of Violence should be included somewhere on your ticket.
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
April 20, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card, and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM PST)
3-Violetta Blue Chip (3/2)-Winner of 2 straight deserves top billing but 3/2 could be too much respect. Will use because may not have seen her best race. Has good tactical speed and Aaron Merriman can put in play early on.
5-Minnaea (9/2)-This filly is still looking to take a picture (0-8) but showed some life last time. Billy Davis Jr had her in gear off a covered trip. Looking for a similar journey here.
Race 12 (10:02 PM PST)
1-Velociraptor (2-1)-Started from the 2nd tier in its Nfld debut and raced in the slop. This is 2nd time Lasix and willing to use from the rail but may have faded if started outside. With this post draw Chris Lems should be in the hunt, hopefully not at a very short price.
4-Jesses Doll (3-1)-Got caught and came 2nd by a nose in last. Luke Ebersole sticks and should get a cozy trip. Can be a threat and doesn't need to lead every step of the way to take a picture.
Race 13 (10:24 PM PST)
3-Girl Scout Cookie (5-1)-Has won at this level on 2-10 and looks like a contender after getting needed post relief. Could get on the point or come off cover to down this crew.
4-Saulsbrook Mabel (5-1)-Greg Grismore should get a good early seat and could offer a square price. Going to fade #2 the morning line 7/5 chalk and look for a solid price. Can surprise if racing with the leaders turning for the wire.
7-Isette Hanover (25-1)-This price shot is competitive and with the right trip could be heard from. Is worth a swing at this price and will hope Tyer Angus can provide a sharp steer.
Race 14 (10:46 PM PST)
1-Bonita Joe (2-1)-Raced better in last with an inside post draw and would expect the same tonight. The short price is tough to swallow but is hard to leave off the ticket.
5-JB'S Star Dancer (6-1)-This mare could win off the right trip, but not sure Angus Lake can follow that plan. Could surprise at a solid price if finds a live cover flow.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
3,5/1,4/3,4,7/1,5
Total Bet=$24
Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Saturday Stakes Analysis
April 19, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s co-featured stakes at Keeneland go in back-to-back races, making for a prime opportunity to take advantage of the track’s reduced 15% takeout daily double wagers offered this Spring Meet. Daily doubles are a great way to expand on a strong opinion as well as a way to build out some value on a horse you like at a price that may be less-than-excitable in the win pool.
The $350,000 Grade 2 Elkhorn in Race 8 should come down to the principal players, 3-2 morning line favorite #4 Bold Act and 4-1 morning line second choice Missed the Cut. Bold Act won Keeneland’s Sycamore with a powerful rally over this mile and one-half trip during the Fall Meet and held form splendidly through the winter with his Group 2 Dubai City of Gold win at Meydan. Trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey Frankie Dettori each have had major turf stakes success at Keeneland in recent weeks, Appleby winning the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile with Master of the Seas and Dettori piloting Grade 1 Jenny Wiley heroine Beaute Cachee.
Appleby also sends out Silver Knott, though the 12-furlong trip will be stretching his form. Missed the Cut has blossomed in California for trainer John Sadler, and this European export could love the Keeneland course, sired by excellent local turf influence Quality Road. Respect the German export Winning Spirit in his US debut. Longshot players consider Dynadrive. I love seeing Dynaformer in the pedigree of any Keeneland turf marathon prospect and Mike Maker has a history of high-dollar claims like this that become veteran major stakes winners long on the grass.
The Race 9 $300,000 Grade 3 Ben Ali will be contested over 1-3/16 miles on the dirt. First-time gelding Smile Happy has run some big races at Keeneland, but has always struck me best at 1-1/16 miles. The longer trip will test his considerable skill, even if trainer Kenny McPeek has found the needed recent wake-up call. Todd Pletcher easily has the most Keeneland dirt wins at trips 9 furlongs and farther, and his Kingbarns is a legitimate 2-1 morning line favorite. His form cycle should be perfect with a second start after the layoff and sprint-to-route move at the same time. He won last out at a trip shorter than his best and that should set him up for success. Single Kingsbarns in the multi-race bets and in daily doubles. Exacta players consider War Campaign, who has been consistent on dirt and proven over the track.
Scott Shapiro: Preakness Prep Analysis
April 19, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is just over two weeks away, but it is the Preakness Stakes that will be on horseplayers’ minds this weekend. Two qualifiers for the second leg of the Triple Crown take place on Saturday with another berth on the line in Sunday’s Illinois Derby.
Laurel Park: Federico Tesio // Saturday
This year’s local prep for the Preakness drew a field of eleven and should see a battle on the front end. The Maryland-bred #1 Speedyness has won half his starts, including a victory versus open company stakes foes two-back in the Miracle Wood. He is all but certain to go, as is Florida based #5 Classic Joke. The son of Practical Joke has shown serious early zip in sprints and stretches out for the initial time.
#7 Lat Long and #11 Copper Tax are the ones on paper likeliest to take advantage of a lively early pace, but will take too much money for me. #9 Carole Rapido is bred to be a star being by Curlin and out of 2016 Kentucky Oaks winner, Cathryn Sophia, but will probably get over bet off of pedigree and connections despite being simply too slow thus far.
#10 Inveighed is in danger of being caught wide into the first turn given his post and running style and failed to finish the deal despite a perfect trip last out in the Private Terms, but still has a big shot to cross the wire first nonetheless. The Jane Cibelli trainee appears to be on the improve and has shown an affinity for this surface. At anything higher than 4-1 he makes sense on the Win end.
Oaklawn Park: Bath House Row Stakes // Saturday
#2 Maximus Mischief should make the lead in this 9-furlong affair. The winner of the March 28th allowance event that included half of the Bath House Row field is drawn well, but is likely to take heat from #4 Informed Patriot. The Hard Spun colt was beaten to the punch last out against better in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but I am anticipating an aggressive ride out of the gate by Ricardo Santana, Jr. His stablemate #3 Imperial Gun is amongst those that would benefit most from a quick tempo.
Another runner that could benefit from a contentious first half mile is #6 Gould’s Gold. The Kenny McPeek trainee is lightly raced and just 1 for 3, but has done little wrong thus far. His debut was a classic McPeek learning experience followed by an impossible task when off slow and in tight early in a race that was essentially a merry-go-round with the two speeds running 1-2 all the way around the turf course. The son of Goldencents was given the winter off and took a huge step forward both mentally and by the numbers in his maiden breaking performance off the bench at one-turn in late March. He should relish getting back out to a route of ground and provides solid value on the Win end at anything 5-1 or higher. He also makes for a solid vertical exotics key, as well as a contrarian horizontal single.
Hawthorne: Illinois Derby // Sunday
Not only does the Sunday headliner at Hawthorne offer a berth into the 2024 Preakness Stakes, but it also features the return of the “Exacta-Thon” Promotion. With a share of $25,000 on the line if able to connect on six exactas throughout the afternoon in Chicago, the $200,000 event presented by 1/ST BET is a must play.
#4 Woodcourt is the lone runner in the compact field of six that has more than two wins. He has had excuses in his last two off the board efforts and is a deserving 5-2-morning line favorite. My only concern with him on the drop is the mile and an eighth. More than eight furlongs may be pushing his stamina making a short price unappealing. I find it even tougher to endorse #1 Real Men Violin at his expected price. He certainly has kept good company, but his lone win is at one-turn in the slop nearly six months ago and his lack of speed makes him race shape dependent.
The obvious pivot with holes to poke in the favorites is to a bigger price, but they lack appeal as well. #2 Patriot Spirit has not taken a step forward as a 3YO and is unlikely to make a clear lead on the stretch out with the presence of #6 Ravin’s Town. The Larry Rivelli charge is faced with a tall task stretching out from 5.5 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in just his second start since last July and third overall. #5 Le Gris could get the right trip, but has yet to do anything close to his best running on the dirt and #3 Raquel appears overmatch.
From an “Exacta-Thon” perspective, Woodcourt should at least be good enough to hang around for second despite the distance concerns. Keying him with Real Men Violin and Le Gris is not a bet I would make normally, but will be my approach to hopefully nailing the last of my six winning exactas and collecting my share of the 25K.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #8
Keeneland - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 The Grey Wizard His form was pretty competitive with a handful of graded stakes groups before the Bowling Green dud last July, but he went straight to the bench off that run, so I'm not going to hold it against him. Capable late at a midrange price. #4 Bold Act He was a pretty easy winner here over this trip last fall, and he easily won his comeback race in Dubai. The one to beat at a likely short price. #11 Silver Knott His better stuff could land this, but he tends to settle for underneath pieces and might do so again while meeting a pretty decent group. Race Summary The Grey Wizard has a little upset appeal from off the pace, and I'm hoping a few forward players will keep the race flow honest enough to give him a chance to punch home.
Keeneland - Race #10
Picks Notes #4 Kingsbarns He did what he was supposed to in that comeback race at 3/5, and he's probably got an overall class ceiling a bit higher than this spot. Tactical placement second back. #9 War Campaign I worry his price isn't going to accurately reflect his win chances, but he has a little positional pace that could help him from this wide draw. Think he still has some proving to do on class. #2 Surly Furious He is interesting for a small share today, as he's got mixed results in the past on the dirt and will likely be overlooked off the move-and-flatten run in that Turfway Grade III last out. Race Summary Kingsbarns will probably have some classier engagements on his calendar later this year, but this is a really great spot for him off the solid comeback score. He should get a great trip and still may have some upside.
Picks Notes #13 Makeup She needs a scratch to draw in, but she would be in a great spot to flash prompting pace from the outside, and she obviously handled this course well last fall. Think #14 Italian Ivy is worth a tiny look at a huge price just outside if she manages to go, too. #12 Parola Sicura She has the pace to be in the mix early from outside, and she might still have some upside while moving to the turf today. Midrange price chance. #1 Golden Dagger Nothing wrong through two starts, and she should be able to settle off the pace and save ground from here. Dangerous if she's better now than she was last year. Race Summary Makeup can be tough if she draws in today, but Parola Sicura and Golden Dagger look best of the main body as it's drawn.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #1
Laurel Park - Race #2
Picks Notes #7 I CAN DO IT (3-1) Lightly-raced 6-year-old is a good fit on her best, starts for new connections. #6 SOLVING PROGRESS (7-5) Back-pedaled in comeback allowance route, one to beat on class drop. #5 EMM ESS EH (5-2) Gets Lasix, can make good use of her speed if ready for first start since the fall. Race Summary I CAN DO IT, disqualified from a maiden victory the last time she ran 7F, returns to a long sprint for her new trainer. She won for the first time in December at age 5 but can do it again on the drop from the allowance ranks. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #9 CAROLINE KRYSTYNA (3-1) Has tactical speed, can use it well from the outside, enters new barn. #8 GOLDEN HEART (7-2) Won three ‘photos’ in four starts before stakes try, back on Lasix for return. #6 LILLY SIMONE (12-1) Late running $100k turf earner seeks first win in 10 months. Race Summary Not much speed in this turf allowance and that bodes well for CAROLYN KRYSTYNA, who went wire-to-wire in her first start on the Pimlico lawn and, more recently, rallied for minor awards in fast-paced grass allowances. She sheds the blinkers on the barn switch, gets second-time Lasix and draws outside with Toledo aboard for the first time. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #4 ADDY’S LADDY T N T (7 Proper level and distance, benefits from ideal race shape. #1 BIG ROWDY DAN (9-5) Solid numbers, rallied into photo-finish view in latest, claimed by Farrior. #3 HEADS OR TAILS (8-1) No match for top pair recently but finished well for second in latest try. Race Summary ADDY’S LADDY T N T should get the jump on his main rivals at a distance which he finished first or second five times in 12 starts. He backed off a duel while in-hand on the turn, only to flatten out in the stretch last out at 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-3 exactas.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE
Camarero - Race 2 Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:10P FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 20 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 5 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 20 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. PLAYA INCLUSION is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * R LOVE ON THE RUN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or a n "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUNTANA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. R LOVE ON THE RUN SUNTANA
Line
Class
Speed
FigureGEM CAT Front-runner COMPETITIVE STAR Front-runner R LOVE ON THE RUN Front-runner SUNTANA Stalker SHAKIN SONG Alternator/Stalker PLAYA INCLUSION Trailer
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita ParkPURCHASE
Santa Anita Park - Race 2 Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 76 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 1:30P FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. I'M STILL IN IT is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * SABRES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desig nation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MS MCWHINNEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COLLECTIVELY: Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. YELLOW SUN DRESS: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. SABRES MS MCWHINNEY COLLECTIVELY YELLOW SUN DRESS
Unknown Running Style: IN WITHOUT KNOCKIN (12/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Ricardo - Trainer: Eurton Peter].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCOLLECTIVELY Front-runner SABRES Front-runner MS MCWHINNEY Alternator/Front-runner I'M STILL IN IT Alternator/Stalker YELLOW SUN DRESS Trailer PRECIPICE Trailer JAI HO Alternator/Trailer KIMBERLY'S DEVIL Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $110000 Class Rating: 86
KEE - R10 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ON THE TURF SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 2LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 5 DEFINITE DIVA 8/1
# 13 MAKEUP 4/1
# 7 SWEET DUTCHESS 5/1
DEFINITE DIVA has a respectable shot to take this contest particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Her 83 average has this filly with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures in this race. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Breen running at this distance are the best in this group of horses in this race. Posted a respectable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. MAKEUP - Is a sharp contender based on numbers earned as of late under today's conditions. Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. SWEET DUTCHESS - With a nice class figure average of 89, has one of the top class advantages in this group of horses. Earned a reliable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race.
FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #6 - Post: 9:50pm - Optional Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 81
Rating:
#4 BLUE NORTHER (ML=6/1)
#3 EMPTY HOLSTER (ML=9/2)
BLUE NORTHER - Faced tougher last time around the track at Turfway Park. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. Trainer, Wells, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Based on works, I look for this gelding to run a big race. EMPTY HOLSTER - This gelding is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on Mar 24th, finishing third.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SANTINO'S FANTASY (ML=3/1), #6 FAST CROSS TRAFFIC (ML=7/2), #1 MAJESTIC ATTACK (ML=4/1),
SANTINO'S FANTASY - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Long layoff and no drop in level of competition. Where is the pace? None to be found in here to set things up for this thoroughbred. FAST CROSS TRAFFIC - Should have at least finished in the money in the last two months in a short distance race to be worth the chance at short odds in a sprint. No value in making a bet on this steed. Probably won't improve off that March 31st affair. MAJESTIC ATTACK - The Brain always tells me to keep away from thoroughbreds in short distance events that haven't hit the board in sprint races recently. This gelding registered a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #4 BLUE NORTHER to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15700 Class Rating: 53
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 4 CREME DE LA QUEEN 9/5
# 1 OPPO TACO 6/1
# 2 ESSENTIAL MAGIC 5/1
I've got to go with CREME DE LA QUEEN. Will probably go to the lead and could never look back. Expect a sound effort with the class drop. Must be given consideration - I like the figs from the last race. OPPO TACO - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Walters running at this distance are the top in this group. ESSENTIAL MAGIC - Is hard not to examine given the company run in lately. Very good rider and conditioner combo winning 23 percent of their races working together.
Lone Star Park - Race #2 - Post: 2:03pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 69
Rating:
#4 TAPS MISTRESS (ML=3/1)
TAPS MISTRESS - When a thoroughbred finishes on the board as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a strong contest on Mar 29th. The latest rating of 64 is the best last race speed rating in the group.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 AVALING (ML=2/1), #1 ALL AMERICAN LADY (ML=5/2), #5 MIZZ FACTOR (ML=5/1),
AVALING - This runner ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig last out. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's event running that fig. ALL AMERICAN LADY - Tough to bet on this less than sharp equine this time out. Make her show you something in a short distance event before you wager on her in a race of 6 furlongs. MIZZ FACTOR - This filly finished out of the money on Mar 16th and wasn't close to victory last time out either.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - TAPS MISTRESS - Changing surface from the grass, at Sam Houston, to the dirt today, this magnificent animal has a good chance to get her first victory.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #4 TAPS MISTRESS to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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