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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/21/24
April 21, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know”
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Quick Brown Fox
Backups/savers: 3-Queen of Napes; 4-Ms Bo J.
Forecast: The highly regarded Quick Brown Fox was entered and scratched in February and when a minor problem surfaced but her recent works indicate she’s fit and ready now for a major effort in her debut. The daughter of Justify from Grade-1 winner Bast has done everything like a potentially stakes quality fit, and while she may not be blazingly quick this seven furlong distance should give her every chance to win at first asking. There’s some decent fillies with experience in the field, but none with her potential, so at 9/5 on the morning line we’ll make her a confident rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Cane Creek Road; 3-Give Me the Lute
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Cane Creek Road always has been a genuine and consistent turf sprinter – he’s finished first or second in 11 of 26 career starts and is a two-time winner over the local lawn – and after winning from a similar field last month following a three month vacation the son of Bayern should fire another big shot today. He’s especially effective in abbreviated turf sprints and utilizes and effective second flight stalk and pounce style. Regular rider A. Fresu knows him well and stays aboard. Give Me the Lute, a strong runner-up (beaten a half- length) by our top pick last time out, can be considered the one to fear most once again.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Magic Account
Backups/savers:2-Carol’s Comic.
Forecast: Magic Account was nosed out in a similar bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint last month in just his second career start (and his first outing in more than a year) and a similar try today – especially from the cozy outside draw – should be more than good enough to earn a diploma in this soft six runner affair. Because of the discrepancy in speed figures when compared to Carol’s Comic (8/5) , it’s understandable that he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all if he goes favored.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Mucho Del Oro; 4-Lane Way.
Backups/savers: 3-First Peace.
Forecast: This is an evenly matched group of older turf sprinters who know each other well. We’ll double the race while preferring Mucho Del Oro on top. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding is fresh from a game win in the San Simeon Stakes over this Hillside Course and distance, and while he’ll pick up two lbs. off that win we’re not expecting to see any regression. Lane Way was third as the favorite (beaten a length) by ‘Oro last time out in his first race since early December and should be fitter and sharper today.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Tambo; 5-In Theory.
Backups/savers: 2-Show Card
Forecast This is a tough, stakes-quality filly for sophomore filly sprinters. Tambo is comfortably placed outside and should snap back to top form while returning to dirt and shortening back to a sprint. She’s the fastest on figures but is facing at least a couple of high potential types who could outclass her. In Theory didn’t earn the big figure that was expected in her debut, but she still managed to win and seems likely to produce a forward move today for trainer B. Baffert, whose second timers often step forward. She was 50 cents on the dollar in that race and seems likely to go lower than her 5/2 morning line today.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Red Cross Knight
Backups/savers: 2-Oubabe; 6-Dick Best.
Forecast: Red Cross Knight has solid form at this level and can be counted on for another big shot. The pace scenario could allow him to become the controlling speed, and if he can secure that type of trip he’ll be especially difficult to run down. We’ll use him as a single on the bulk of our tickets while also including two others for protection just in case ‘Knight performs below our expectations.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10-Bad Sneakers; 2-Gavea.
Backups/savers: 8-Dual Threat.
Forecast: Bad Sneakers will have to overcome the extreme outside draw in this main track miler and we’re not entirely the opportunity will present itself, but if the M. Glatt-trained gelding can get over a save enough ground early to secure a decent early position he should have every chance to return to winning form. Quite frankly, his most recent race - following his maiden win last December at Los Alamitos – was quite disappointing, so we’re really not quite sure where he’s at. Gavea had nothing behind him when destroying a weak maiden claiming field by more than 16 lengths last month. If he can duplicate the number against this much stronger field he’ll be right there.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 2-North East Star (Ire) .
Backups/savers: 6-Inner Beauty (Ire); 1-Dendera.
Forecast: North East Star (Ire) is a first-off-the-claim for trainer P. Miller, and after winning from a (nw-2) $25,000 field over a mile two months ago she returns on the raise while shortening to a Hillside sprint. Based strictly on figures, the Irish-bred filly is a solid fit at this level and two races back she showed she could handle the tricky layoff when a good runner-up despite stumbling at the start and losing early position. J. Hernandez rides her back, so we’re expecting another winning effort as a potential rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 3-Desert Dawn
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Desert Dawn was a distant fourth in the Beholder Mile-G1 last time out in a Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 level race won by Sweet Azteca, with subsequent runaway Apple Blossom S.-G1 Adare Manor franking the form in her next outing. She’s been given sufficient time off since that race to recover, so off her best race – or a repeat of her La Canada S.-G3 two runs back – the P. D’Amato-trained mare should be more than capable of handling this considerable easier assignment. She’s a logical rolling exotic singe, though at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go a bit lower there’s probably not a whole lot of wagering value available.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:36 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 5-Runamileinmyshoes; 9-Ashleys Sandcastle; 10-Isabel Ludlow.
Backups/savers: 7-Quantum Innergy.
Forecast: Runamileinmyshoes was disappointing when having every chance but flattening out late to be third as the favorite in a similar affair over this course and distance last month but she’s a first-time blinkers user today, so we’ll give her another chance based on that factor alone. The J. Mullins barn always has done well with this angle, and with J. Hernandez staying aboard the daughter of Street Boss will have no excuses. Ashleys Sandcastle, in the frame in her last three but a beaten choice in her most recent two outings, picks up Frankie and figures somewhere in the fray again, while Isabel Ludlow is a one-paced grinder but projects to be prominent throughout and won’t have to improve much to graduate.
AlCimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
April 21, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has an 11-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8 (7:30 PM PST)
2-Graceful Horizon (8/5)-Cashed the top check in last off an efficient trip in a quick 151.2 mile. Slides in from the 6 hole and should get another cozy trip.
5-Divine Art (9/5)-Team Longo mare was hung the mile last week but still finished 3rd. Will probably look to get the jump on the one above and should find a good early seat this time. Has won 10 of 26 at CalX and is a main player with a smooth trip.
Race 9 (7:30 PM PST)
2-Starznstripes (5-1)-Hasn't had success at this level but the same can be said for most of this group. Should offer a nice price. Could surprise if gets off the gate in good shape and races at the top of the stack.
6-Lickcreek Speedway (3-1)-Runner-up in the last 2 and is the program choice. The short price is a concern being 1-17 since the start of 2023. But, probably best to not overlook versus this field.
7-Midnight Zen (12-1)-Got on the engine in last and faded down the lane. Most likely will be headed for the top and could seal the deal with better rating.
Race 10 (7:50 PM PST)
2-LuLu Hoop (12-1)-Swinging for a price in the 2nd start off the bench and James Lackey could work a cozy trip. Comes right back and should be better tonight. Has hit the board in 8 of 13 at CalX and has taken 2 pictures.
7-Treasure Horizon (5/2)-Was cashing checks versus better and drops about 5 TM levels for this affair. Logical use but won't offer any value.
Race 11 (8:10 PM PST)
5-Contemporay Legend (2-1)-Got a nice trip and beat similar on 4-12. The 10-year-old starts from the same post again and could double up.
9-Frewil Dakota Sven (5-1)-Usually starts slowly and can finish in a hurry. Came the back half in 57.3 and the post does help the price. Could catch the speed if the fractions are honest.
$1.00 Pick 4
2,5/2,6,7/2,7/5,9
Total Bet=$24
Scott Shapiro: Sunday's IL Derby Day Pick 4 at Hawthorne
April 20, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Brendan Walsh was the winning trainer when the Illinois Derby was last contested in 2017. Veteran James Graham piloted Multiplier home from off the pace to victory. After a six-year hiatus, the race is back offering up a spot in the Preakness Stakes starting gate in addition to the lions’ share of the $200,000 purse. The feature on the 9-race card goes as Race 8 and makes up the third leg of the Sunday afternoon Late Pick 4 at Hawthorne Race Course.
Race 6:
The pace should be contentious in this beaten $5k claimer at 5.5 furlongs over the main track given the presence of #1 Bourbon Teddy, #4 Gallant Buck, and #9 Robust. #8 Time Heist took advantage of a great setup off the layoff last out against similar on March 31st. He should get a favorable race shape again for his off the pace style. He is a must use, but I will also include #7 Risky Boy who had an overall good trip in the race won by Time Heist last month, but moved a little too early under Rishawn Blanche. If Blanche can time things a bit better, this Arkansas-bred gelding has a chance to spring the upset.
Race 7:
#1 Richiesonaroll ships in from Keeneland after a speed and fade effort off the bench earlier this month in the Commonwealth (G3). The Illinois-bred was in his over his head in Kentucky fifteen days ago, but finds a much softer spot here. If jockey Emmanuel Giles can get this one out of the gate in good order, he is likely to prove very tough to catch. However, if the 9-5-morning line choice takes heat early, it could set things up for #6 Silent Sunday. The Silent Name gelding has not raced over dirt since early last summer, but put in a strong late run over the all-weather at Turfway Park in his first try for new trainer Billy Morey. He is 4 for 12 and fits well if he takes to the surface switch.
Race 8:
It is great to see the Illinois Derby back! The Preakness Stakes qualifier presented by 1/ST Bet drew a compact field of six led by 5-2-morning line favorite #4 Woodcourt. The son of Ransom the Moon proved to be a strong claim for Cipriano Contreras immediately rattling off a win versus allowance foes in his three-year-old debut. From there, Contreras gave him two shots against graded stakes foes where he did not disgrace himself at all at big odds. Woodcourt is a little tough for me to trust at 1 1/8 miles, but he is the likeliest winner nonetheless.
#1 Real Men Violin is likely to take a lot of support based on the competition he has kept, but his lone win came at one-turn over an off track. Finishing second to Kentucky Derby probable Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) back in November is a solid resume builder, but he had a favorable voyage that day and has been unable to build on it thus far in 2024. I am less excited about his chances and will not be surprised if he gets over bet exiting two serious Kentucky Derby preps down in New Orleans.
Trying to steal it on the front end looks challenging given the presence of both #2 Patriot Spirit and #6 Ravin’s Town, while #5 Le Gris attracts Jareth Loveberry and could get an honest pace to run at, but finished eighth in his lone dirt try.
Tough call on how to handle things here from a horizontal perspective. I will single Woodcourt on one ticket and get some coverage on my other.
Race 9:
#6 Gimme the Candy aims to make it two in a row off the break for Larry Rivelli. Rivelli has been smoking hot at Hawthorne dating back to April 7th winning with 5 of his 9 starters. This $75,000 OBS April 2023 purchase has done little wrong in his two tries over the main track. If he is able to clear like he did in his maiden breaker, he could be tough to deny, but things could get interesting if #1 Larry the Poet or #8 Purple Octopus make the Rivelli charge work early on the stretch out to 6 furlongs.
#7 Little Seven appears likeliest to take advantage if we get a lively early tempo shipping in from Florida for Cheryl Winebaugh. He has done his best running on the sod, but the cutback and a contentious pace make him an intriguing option to close out the Illinois Derby card. I will single Little Seven on my ticket spreading in the Illinois Derby and use both Gimme the Candy and Little Seven on my ticket singled to the morning line choice in the feature.
Good luck!
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #9
Keeneland - Race #6
Picks Notes #7 Semantics She showed a little bit of life when showing up at Turfway last time out, and she might have some upside in the second start off the bench. Tighter today with a tactical trip waiting? #4 Risk Threshold She's probably supposed to be tough for a top team off the Gulfstream debut run, and she might be a bit more tactical with a clean getaway. #10 Dona Witch She might still have something more to offer in this third career start, and she has been drilling steadily ahead of this third career start. Some appeal. Race Summary Semantics might be able to move forward off the last one, and I'm not sure this is the deepest special weight of the season. Get a look at the debuters down near the fence.
Keeneland - Race #8
Picks Notes #1 Rock N Roll Bolt He's capable of something better than he showed last time out when a distant third, and I could see him finding a good spot while tucked inside or just behind the guy outside of him. In the mix early. #7 Dragoon Guard Tactical type ran well in the debut last fall, and he's probably a big threat off the bench today at a likely short price. #2 Lake Superior Speed might like the move around one turn with that cutback route pace, but he tends to stop hard in the lane, and I wouldn't be too confident that he'll see this out. Race Summary Rock N Roll Bolt might offer a decent enough price with Dragoon Guard and Lake Superior likely to take some cash, and I'd love to see him find a spot in the pocket.
Picks Notes #7 Powerful There are some decent sprint lines on his page, and he might be in a great spot in behind the more committed pace players. His form looks hit or miss at first glance, but there are a lot of stakes excuses built in. #9 Champlin She has flashed some serious talent through two sharp scores in New Orleans, but I worry she's going to be in for a battle today with with a few other pace players waiting for her. High-ceiling player. #4 Ready to Pounce He is an honest enough finisher to think he might be able to get past a lot of these late if the pace heats up. Some price appeal. Race Summary Powerful gets the edge in a competitive race -- think a handful of these could win. His style might leave him spying the pace in an advantageous spot.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Golden Gate Fields - Race 9 Claiming $6,250 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 5:51P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LILLY'S JOURNEY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SILENT BEAUTY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LILLY'S JOURNEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SOO B ROOKLYN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOPPER'S CHIEFTESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. A PERFECT PATH: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SILENT BEAUTY LILLY'S JOURNEY SOO BROOKLYN TOPPER'S CHIEFTESS A PERFECT PATH
Line
Class
Speed
FigureLILLY'S JOURNEY Alternator/Front-runner SILENT BEAUTY Stalker A PERFECT PATH Alternator/Stalker TOPPER'S CHIEFTESS Alternator/Stalker SOO BROOKLYN Alternator/Trailer HARBOR DEAREST Alternator/Non-contender GENTLE JULIA Alternator/Non-contender TIGERIZE Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE
Equibase Special - Race 3 Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 79 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 5:36P SA - R10 - (RAIL AT 10 FEET). FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST STARTS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CASTAGNA is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * RUNAMILEINMYSHOES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. QUANTUM INNERGY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ISABEL LUDLOW: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ASHLEYS SANDCASTLE: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at lea st +20. WARREN'S PARADICE: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. RUNAMILEINMYSHOES QUANTUM INNERGY ISABEL LUDLOW ASHLEYS SANDCASTLE WARREN'S PARADICE
Unknown Running Style: MINERAL RIGHTS (20/1) [Jockey: Laprida Jeremy - Trainer: McCarthy Sean].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCASTAGNA Front-runner RUNAMILEINMYSHOES Stalker WARREN'S PARADICE Alternator/Stalker GLACIER RIM Alternator/Stalker WISHES TO RICHES Alternator/Stalker BE A GOLDFISH Trailer ISABEL LUDLOW Trailer QUANTUM INNERGY Trailer ASHLEYS SANDCASTLE Trailer ANOTHER SUMMER Alternator/Non-contender BLONDZILLA Alternator/Non-contender STARLIT HARBOR Alternator/Non-contender STAKEMAKER Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 84
GP - R10 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 MO CALIENTE 3/1
# 5 SWEET TRAVELS 9/2
# 11 HIGHLAND PEAK 12/1
MO CALIENTE has a decent shot to take this race. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been quite good - 76 avg - of late. Clearly will improve with switch in blinkers (going off) today. Solid average speed figs in turf route races make this racer a contender. SWEET TRAVELS - With Zayas getting the mount, watch out for this horse. HIGHLAND PEAK - Ought to be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed fig - 79 - of his last race.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $110000 Class Rating: 99
KEE - R5 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ON THE TURF SINCE MARCH 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 3 DEMOLITION DUKE 5/1
# 7 JEFE DE OBRA (CHI) 9/2
# 6 DOUBLE CLUTCH 5/1
DEMOLITION DUKE looks to be a strong contender. Could beat this group given the 97 speed figure put up in his last outing. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong speed figs (97 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Always tough to beat Walsh and Gaffalione working together, winning 23 percent of their races. JEFE DE OBRA (CHI) - Is worth thinking about and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figs (96 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Ward has him trained well to break promptly out of the starting gate. DOUBLE CLUTCH - Looks competitive for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figs in turf sprint races as of late. Ortiz has one of the best jock ROI's on the grounds, returning to wagerers +8 percent.
Fonner Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:12pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,700 Class Rating: 65
Rating:
#1 PAISANO JIM (ML=7/2)
PAISANO JIM - Have to like the way Anderson has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. Just see his recent speed rating, 63. That one looks good in this group. The addition of the 'hood' should keep his mind on business today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 INEWAGALLIKETHAT (ML=2/1), #4 NAME THE PRICE (ML=5/2), #6 KENHEDOIT (ML=3/1),
INEWAGALLIKETHAT - 2/1 is too low of a price to take on this horse. NAME THE PRICE - Don't feel this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. KENHEDOIT - In any event of 6 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs of late.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #1 PAISANO JIM to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with 3
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:18pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 74
Rating:
#7 PRINCESS BLAKELY (ML=8/1)
#4 KOZEM (ML=20/1)
PRINCESS BLAKELY - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Jara gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. KOZEM - This rider and handler's equines have been generating a favorable return on investment.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LEXI'S SPIRIT (ML=9/5), #2 BLACK BELT BARBIE (ML=2/1), #1 FOGGY NOTE (ML=4/1),
LEXI'S SPIRIT - This lower class level horse may have a tough time rebounding off of two determined stretch drives. BLACK BELT BARBIE - This filly hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in sprint affairs. Not easy to wager on her in this contest. This filly finished out of the money on October 29th and wasn't close to winning last time around the track either. FOGGY NOTE - Not likely for this horse to make an impact with no recent good showings in a short distance event. This rallier should have a rough go of it to get up in time with the shortage of pace in this race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #7 PRINCESS BLAKELY to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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