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Thread: Thursday 5/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

  1. #1
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    Thursday 5/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


  2. #2
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    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Churchill Downs - Race #5
    Picks Notes
    #9 Thermoscope Get a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but I liked him a little bit in a Keeneland spot he scratched out of, so I'll follow him along to this one. Think he might be a fun one.
    #4 Rocky Joy He should be right up on the splits while getting around two turns on the turf, but he's bringing pretty solid sprint form with him from Turfway and might like the new footing.
    #7 Brilliant Berti Wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him move forward enough to make some noise in this one, and the even effort at first asking in New Orleans seems like a decent enough base to start from.
    Race Summary Thermoscope goes first out in a field without any real standout form on paper, and he's one I've been looking forward to seeing get to the gate.
    Churchill Downs - Race #10
    Picks Notes
    #3 Richiesonaroll I think his form is a touch more imposing than it looks at first glance, and he has occasionally flashed the kind of pace that might give him a shot to control the tempo in a spot lacking serious committed early pace.
    #5 Bango He absolutely loves it here and has the pace to be right in the mix early on in a race without a ton of speed. The one to beat at a likely short price.
    #7 O Besos He might be ready to fire fresh off the November break, but I wonder if he's going to be vulnerable to one of the top two getting the jump on him.
    Race Summary Richiesonaroll takes a shot against tougher today, but he has some pace to mix things up early on -- there aren't any real early burners signed on, and maybe he can take it to Bango right away.
    Churchill Downs - Race #11
    Picks Notes
    #9 Carl Spackler Nothing too creative on top here, as I think this guy is supposed to handle these if he brings his baseline effort off the bench. He should finds a dreamy trip in behind the splits.
    #8 Accredit I expected a bit better from him last time out, and I'm concerned that he's going to have enough company to make things tough, but his better stuff would make him a player at a price if he can manage to find a decent tempo.
    #1 Ah Jeez He hasn't been embarrassed in some decent California spots, and he might be a bit more competitive than his likely price suggests. Could share.
    Race Summary Carl Spackler will take cash today, but I think he'll manage this group without a ton of trouble, and I'll look to Accredit or Ah Jeez as midrange price players to build in gimmicks with him.

  3. #3
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    Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


    Gulfstream Park - Race #2
    Picks Notes
    #1 KINGFISH STEVENS (6-1) Can make maximum use of his speed, gets Zayas on another rider change.
    #3 MY MAN FLINT (3-1) Rallied for 7/2-1-2 record the last seven times Rios was aboard on turf.
    #5 UNCLE CURLY (9-2) Seven-time turf winner needs some pace flow to build $263k bankroll.
    Race Summary KINGFISH STEVENS back-pedaled through fast middle fractions off the claim and finished last in the same spot. But considering the top three finishers were sixth, seventh and ninth at the first call, he looms a front-end danger in a field that lacks quality speed. Bet to win and place.
    Gulfstream Park - Race #3
    Picks Notes
    #3 HE’S A BUTTE (2-1) Has speed, gets class relief and Lasix, appears primed for seasonal debut.
    #6 CHEYENNE BRAVE (3-1) Also has good zip, could gain stamina from one-mile test, gets blinkers.
    #1 MAGIC SOUL (5-2) Urged along in well-bet debut, lacked stretch kick, will be underlay.
    Race Summary HE’S A BUTTE sped to a clear lead but didn’t change leads when he got caught by a first-out favorite in his debut for $50,000. He had a rough follow-up trip in MSW company, but lands in an ideal spot off a series of fast workouts for his seasonal debut. Bet to win and place.
    Gulfstream Park - Race #5
    Picks Notes
    #5 MIDNIGHT ONYX (8-1) Seeks duplicate of long-distance test at this level.
    #7 HAY HAY HARRY (8-5) Returns to claim level, tries to carry speed farther with blinkers removed.
    #4 CHACHARERO (10-1) Competitive numbers while no factor against better lately.
    Race Summary MIDNIGHT ONYX ran well enough to win in his first route attempt, but he got caught wide on both turns and got caught by the winner. He appears the value in a crowded and evenly-matched field of runners looking for their second win. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-7 exacta box.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

    PURCHASE
    Sam Houston Race Park - Race 8
    WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 8-9)
    Optional Claiming $25,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 85 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 10:00
    QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SHEZA JET TOO: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. DA DEVIL MADE MEDOIT: Horse has the highest TrackMast er Power Rating. LEAVINEMATTHEBAR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TH MAI TAI TOM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JB SHINER BOK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
    5
    SHEZA JET TOO
    7/2
    6/1
    1
    DA DEVIL MADE MEDOIT
    7/5
    6/1
    2
    LEAVINEMATTHEBAR
    3/1
    6/1
    3
    TH MAI TAI TOM
    6/1
    9/1
    6
    JB SHINER BOK
    10/1
    9/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    DA DEVIL MADE MEDOIT
    1
    7/5
    Slow
    88
    85
    6.5
    0.0
    0.0
    2
    LEAVINEMATTHEBAR
    2
    3/1
    Average
    91
    84
    3.8
    0.0
    0.0
    3
    TH MAI TAI TOM
    3
    6/1
    Average
    85
    82
    4.6
    0.0
    0.0
    4
    EYE AM TUFF
    4
    20/1
    Average
    82
    74
    3.9
    0.0
    0.0
    5
    SHEZA JET TOO
    5
    7/2
    Fast
    87
    86
    3.1
    0.0
    0.0
    6
    JB SHINER BOK
    6
    10/1
    Average
    92
    78
    4.3
    0.0
    0.0
    7
    LIBERATER
    7
    15/1
    Fast
    84
    82
    3.5
    0.0
    0.0

  5. #5
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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn NationalPURCHASE


    Penn National - Race 2
    W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)/ Pick 5 (Races 2-6)
    Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 84 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:14P
    (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 2. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PICTOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PICTOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TO MMY THE TORCH: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). INDIRECTLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. REDEEM EDDIE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface .
    5
    PICTOR
    2/1
    4/1
    2
    TOMMY THE TORCH
    5/2
    6/1
    3
    INDIRECTLY
    7/2
    8/1
    1
    REDEEM EDDIE
    10/1
    10/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    5
    PICTOR
    5
    2/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    92
    78
    75.8
    65.8
    59.8
    2
    TOMMY THE TORCH
    2
    5/2
    Alternator/Stalker
    93
    80
    60.8
    73.2
    68.2
    3
    INDIRECTLY
    3
    7/2
    Alternator/Stalker
    83
    82
    52.8
    73.2
    66.7
    6
    DEB'S GUNFIGHTER
    6
    4/1
    Trailer
    87
    76
    44.8
    64.8
    55.8
    1
    REDEEM EDDIE
    1
    10/1
    Trailer
    84
    77
    28.2
    74.8
    69.3
    4
    DON'T LOSEMYMONEY
    4
    8/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    92
    77
    60.0
    62.8
    53.3

  6. #6
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 37

    FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 13 BIT OF BLESSINGS 6/1
    # 9 CEDAR'S IMAGE 2/1
    # 1 BLUSHING BIP BOP 8/5

    I favor BIT OF BLESSINGS here. This pony has to be in form coming back to race so quickly. CEDAR'S IMAGE - Likely to see a solid effort with the class drop. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 61, has one of the best class advantages in this group.

  7. #7
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:24pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 79

    Rating:

    #7 ORDER UP (ML=3/1)
    #5 ARKANSAS ZONG (ML=5/1)


    ORDER UP - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid race on April 6th. This rider and conditioner's horses have been generating a beneficial return on investment. ARKANSAS ZONG - The jock/trainer tandem of Fusilier and Dison has a strong ROI together. He must like the track here. Shipped in to take the money on Apr 13th and he looks tough once again. I really like that recent effort on Apr 13th at Evangeline Downs where he ran first.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MAHOMEBRED (ML=9/5), #4 SKIPPA (ML=7/2), #2 HUFFS TAZ A BOO (ML=8/1),

    MAHOMEBRED - Don't think this mount will do much running in today's event. That last rating was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure. SKIPPA - This steed will probably be near the rear of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish. HUFFS TAZ A BOO - This animal doesn't have a winner's temperament. Time-and-again finishes in the place and show spots. Don't feel this pony will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure.


    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #7 ORDER UP to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,7]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Skip
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

  8. #8
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Turf Paradise - Race #11 - Post: 5:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 67

    Rating:

    #2 CHICKEN WING (ML=6/1)
    #3 PARETO'S PRINCIPLE (ML=15/1)
    #7 HUSTO (ML=6/1)


    CHICKEN WING - Horse's last race was at Turf Paradise in a race with a class figure of 76. Dropping a significant amount in class rating this time puts him in a solid position right here in this race. This jockey and conditioner are dependable together. Win pct when teamed up is hard to top. Gelding will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance. PARETO'S PRINCIPLE - If the front runners get weary, this gelding will kick into high gear. This gelding is probably the best closer in the field. Ran last out against a high class rated field at Turf Paradise. The move down in the class scale should suit him well. HUSTO - I like to see fast morning activity. This colt's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Look for this one to go all the way to the finish line at some pretty good odds in this event. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the end.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #11 CHARLIE'S MAN (ML=5/2), #10 ARIZONA MADE (ML=7/2), #1 CROWN PROSECUTOR (ML=5/1),

    CHARLIE'S MAN - You always think this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he falters most every time. More than enough tries at Turf Paradise with no sojourns to the victory stand. ARIZONA MADE - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with morning line odds of 7/2. Can't play this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance race of late. CROWN PROSECUTOR - Displayed clues of physical problems in the race on March 26th at Turf Paradise. Finished third in his most recent race with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #2 CHICKEN WING to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3,7]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip

  9. #9
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 48

    FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 4 COMERIO'S DREAM 2/1
    # 6 VINCENZA M 7/2
    # 7 MEAN TOWN 4/1

    COMERIO'S DREAM has a strong shot to take this race. Will almost certainly come out very strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the lead recently. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Adorno will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the race. MEAN TOWN - Will probably go to the front end and should never look back.

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