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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Churchill Downs - 5/4/24
May 2, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs “What You Need to Know"
Full Card Kentucky Derby Day Program
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Culprit; 6-House United; 2-Pure Force
Backups/savers: 1-Evan On Earth; 5-Lou’s Legacy.
Forecast: We’re expecting the winner to be among those listed above on our main ticket, but there are question marks surrounding each of the three, and without any video workouts available we’re kinda flying blind. Culprit was believed to be precocious enough to win very early in his juvenile campaign last summer at Woodbine but performed far below expectations in two starts (was a beaten choice in both) and then was stopped on. The son of Justify from the stakes winning mare Henny Jenny – a $675,000 Keeenland yearling – is a May foal and therefore may not have been physically ready for his June debut but returns for trainer Wesley Ward (a strong 21% with layoffs) with a series of workouts that should have him plenty fit and could easily be a much better type this time around. The barn’s go-to rider Johnny V. takes the call, and that combined with the always-popular blinkers off angle earns him top billing at 7/2 on the morning line. House United closed a gap in his debut to be an okay but non-threatening fourth in his debut at Fair Grounds in March and seems likely to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind him. He’ll get an extra half-furlong to work without today while adding blinkers, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s a legitimate middle price contender. Obviously, we haven’t seen Pure Force in the morning, but his raw workout times are quick enough to indicate he can run some. The B. Cox barn hits at a powerful 25% with first time starters, so this homebred Juddmonte colt by Constitution colt from the stakes winning mare Mexican Gold may be the most dangerous of the newcomers. The pre-race tote and rolling exotic probable payoffs will be worth checking out.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:01 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Scylla
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Scylla may be hard to trust at 6/5 on the morning line after failing as the heavy chalk in her first two 2024 outings, first at Gulfstream Park at 50 cents on the dollar in an allowance race in mid-March and then most recently at 6/5 when a lackluster third in the Doubledogdare S.-G3 at Keeneland just two weeks ago. That said, her Beyer speed figures are fast, (both of her recent races are better than any career top from any of her rivals), so as long as she doesn’t regress the W. Mott-trained daughter of Tapit shouldn’t miss this chance. The four-year-old filly was all the rage early in her career last year when she won her first two outings all by herself before having to be stopped on, so if she’s ever going to reach her potential she’ll need to beat this second level allowance field over a one turn mile trip that seems perfect for her second flight, stalking style.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:31 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 11-Mindframe; 9-Invigorated.
Backups/savers: 1-Cartucho.
Forecast: As of this writing we aren’t sure if both of the Repole/Pletcher colts will start in this stakes-quality first-level allowance race, but if they do, both are “must uses.” Mindframe ran out of the picture in his debut over seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park in late March, winning by almost 14 lengths while earning a Grade-1 quality Beyer speed figure of 103. However, two subsequent workouts at Palm Beach Downs were visually just ordinary (we didn’t see his recent Churchill Downs breeze), but maybe he’s the type that only performs when the money is down. He’s drawn on the far outside (11 of 11) and with the relatively short run into the clubhouse turn there’s no guarantee he can avoid a wide trip. Stable mate Invigorated didn’t run nearly as fast in his debut win (his Beyer number was 15 points slower) and jockey I. Ortiz, Jr. opted for ‘Fame, but this son of Street Sense won his race around two turns and was visually very impressive overcoming the extreme outside draw before producing an exceptional late turn of foot while coasting home under wraps. As a backup, we’ll toss in Cartucho, who walked out of the gate in his debut at Tampa Bay Downs but then inhaled his badly outclassed rivals to win going away and was just getting warmed up when crossing the wire. This is an entirely different level of competition, but based on the race video we viewed we’d be disappointed if the son of Gun Runner didn’t at least hit the board.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:04 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Best Actor
Backups/savers: 1-Strong Quality; 7-Kapuna.
Forecast: At first glance, this year’s renewal of the Knick’s Go Overnight Stakes may ap-appear to be a somewhat messy affair, with no result out of the question. However, digging a bit deeper we’ve been able to isolate a top pick and take a stand with Best Actor. Though he burned money in his last two starts, missing in a photo at odds on in the Mineshaft S.-G3 and then fading to finish a lackluster third as the chalk in the New Orleans Classic-G2 in mid-March. The B. Cox-trained colt could bounce back big time shortening up to today’s one-turn mile distance. Three runs back over this track and distance the veteran son of Flatter scored handsomely in a strong overnight outing, a performance that upped his record over the local main track to two-for-two. Four sharp breezes since raced indicate he’s ready to produce a top effort, and with regular pilot F. Prat staying aboard there should be no excuses under conditions that for him are nothing short of ideal.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:36 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-Motorious (GB); 8-Mischief Magic (IRE); 10-Big Invasion.
Backups/savers: 12-Arrest Me Red; 14-Cogburn; 6-Filo Di Arianna (BRZ).
Forecast Here’s a high class turf sprint that drew 14 in-the-field entrants plus three on the also-eligible list and hardly any of them are true front-running types. The simple nature of the race demands a spread strategy in rolling exotics with the traditional mid-pack runners who can manage to obtain a good early position enjoying a distinct advantage. Motorious (GB) has a history of firing big fresh and in his first start since winding up a close fifth (beaten less than two lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-G1 last November the P. D’Amato-trained gelding can be expected to produce a top effort, maybe even one good enough to win. The work tab should have him cranked and ready, and after finishing an excellent runner-up over this course and distance in last year’s renewal of the Turf Sprint S.-G2, the British-bred gelding has shown he can handle this sand-based course. Magical Mischief (IRE) was outrun early in the Shakertown S.-G2 in his U.S. debut last month at Keeneland and was stymied in heavy traffic until the head of the lane, then angled widest and closed with purpose to finish an excellent second. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint-G2 in 2022, the Godolphin homebred will hope for clear sailing today, but without tactical speed in a big field racing luck certainly will be needed. Big Invasion always has been a powerful late running turf sprint and has won over this course and distance in the past. He’s another that would be well advised to stay in touch during the early stages.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:14 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10-Vahva; 7-Alva Starr.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Alva Starr and Vahva hit the wire a half-length apart when well clear of the others in the recent Madison S.-G1 at Keeneland and they could easily finish that way again in this year’s edition of the Derby City Distaff-G1 over the same seven furlong distance. This time, though, the slight edge goes to Vahva due to her perfect two-for-two record over the Churchill Downs main track. Cozily drawn outside, the daughter of Gun Runner projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the three furlong pole to the wire. ‘Starr has a bit more tactical speed and can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon the race flow and therefor is a “must use” on your ticket as well. While there are others in the field that have credentials to win, we’ll try to survive and advance using the just the two listed above.
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RACE 7: Post: 1:56 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 11-Coppice (GB)
Backups/savers: 3-Chili Flag; 6-Delahaye; 8-Heavenly Sunday.
Forecast: Coppice (GB) makes her U.S. debut (had been with J. Gosden overseas, now trained by C. Brown) in this year’s edition of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile-G2 and if the extreme outside post position 11 doesn’t do her in the British-bred filly should be able to outclass this field. A respectable fourth (no mishap but stayed on gamely) in the Sun Chariot S.-G1 at Newmarket behind champion Inspiral when last seen in October, the daughter of Kingman (GB) is reunited with Frankie, who was aboard her two runs back when she won a listed affair that if repeated today would make her hard to deny. The barn hits at a powerful 25% with Euro-imports and is equally effective with layoffs of all types, so at 5-1 on the morning line there’s a reasonable gamble to be found with this Royal Ascot winner, who has looked terrific in the morning while preparing for this outing,
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RACE 8: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: 11-Vlahos
Backups/savers: 12-Nash.
Forecast: Vlahos earned a monster speed figure in winning his debut from the rail at Santa Anita in early March and was privately purchased soon after the race. The son of Kantharos has had his 98 Beyer verified by subsequent runners exiting the race, so we’ll take the number at face value and expect the D. O’Neill-trained sophomore to handle the class hike and win this year’s renewal of the Pat Day Mile-G2, which, quite frankly, didn’t come up as tough as usual. Very quick but not speed crazy, he’s listed at an enticing 8-1 on the morning line. You might want to play him in the rolling exotics, where you might wind up getting an extra point or two of value. Obviously, he’ll also have to prove he can cope with the stretch out to a one turn mile, but we’re expecting the trip will be within his range.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: A
Main ticket: 5-Legend of Time
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Legend of Time (GB) is a gifted Godolphin European import trained by C. Appleby with an outstanding resume of four wins from five career starts, the last three of which were earned in runaway victories at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. The sophomore colt is unproven in graded/group company but the manner in which he has dispatched each of his rivals during his 2024 campaign makes him look like an outclass against his North American-based foes in this year’s American Turf S.-G2. With outstanding tactical ability and the ability to quicken on a dime, the son of Sea the Stars picks up Frankie and is listed as the lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite. We should only be so lucky to get that price.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:31 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: 6-Zozos; Mr. Wireless; 3-Mr. Cruz.
Backups/savers: 2-Tejano Twist; 11-Hoist the Gold.
Forecast: Zozos has plenty of back class and has a history of winning off layoffs, so in this year’s renewal of the Churchill Downs S.-G1 the son of Munnings should be set for a major effort. Let’s hope this year his connections keep him around one turn. Winner of the Ack Ack Stakes over the local dirt track in a one-turn miler two runs back, the B. Cox-trained horse shows three triple-digit Beyer figures in his last six starts, so we know he’s fast enough and good enough to beat this field. Freshened since the BC Dirt Mile last November, he hails from a stable that hits at a remarkable 32% with layoff runners while his work tab, though a bit light, indicates that he’s retained all of his speed. Mr. Wireless has been routing most of his career but is probably most effective going short. His mid-March allowance win at Fair Grounds over six furlongs in his first start in 10 months earned a career-top number, one that puts him in the fray right back despite the raise to graded company. At 6-1 on the morning line, the Dialed In gelding in a “must use.” Bo Cruz is lightly raced and improving and his recent Keeneland win at this same extended sprint trip in the Commonwealth S.-G2 in just his seventh career start was noteworthy. With another forward move, he has a chance to at least hit the board and maybe do even better than that at 10-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:27 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: 6-I’m Very Busy
Backups/savers: 5-Program Trading (GB); 11-Naval Power (GB)
Forecast: The sudden improvement since the beginning of 2024 by I’m Very Busy has been stunning and a repeat of either one of his last starts likely will be good enough to win this year’s edition of the Turf Classic-G1. An unlucky runner-up at 14-1 in the Pegasus World Cup Turf-G1 two races back that was followed by a nearly four length obliteration of his rivals in the Muniz Memorial-G3 at Fair Grounds in March (both outings earned triple-digit Beyers), the son of Cloud Computing has developed an electric turn of foot, and with eight wins, four seconds, and a third in eight career starts, he’s already proven to be genuine, consistent, and on the verge of stardom. The 4-year-old colt has especially gotten good since I. Ortiz, Jr. has become his regular pilot, so at 4-1 on the morning (he won’t be this price, will he?) the C. Brown-trained colt is a strong play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:57 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: 17-Fierceness; 2-Sierra Leone
Backups/savers: 18-Stronghold; 11-Forever Young (JPN).
Forecast: We won’t get fancy here. Other public handicappers can take a random stab at a big price seeking notoriety and why not? If the pick runs up the track, nobody will remember, anyway. Fierceness is the best and fastest horse in the race by any logical metric. If he repeats any one of three races on his resume he’ll demolish this field, and from his outside 16-hole post the chances are good that he'll enjoy a comfortable stalking or second flight trip in the clear and then be able accelerate when he so chooses. We’re not sure how close to his 5/2 morning line he will be, but while he’ll certainly leave as the chalk, his closing odds probably won’t be ridiculously short. Since his runaway win five weeks ago in the Florida Derby-G1 in a race that was assigned a stratospheric 110 Beyer speed figure, the son of City of Light has never looked better in his breezes leading up to the Derby. Yes, two of his five outings were clunkers – he had excuses for both – and there’s always a possibly that he fails to deliver for whatever reason. But we’re not seeing that. Sierra Leone is the most dangerous of the closers and has fired every time he’s been led over. His lack of tactical speed is a concern, his inside post position 2 is less than ideal, he might be a bit pace dependent and traffic issues are more than likely. Nonetheless, we expect him to rolling late. He’s worth saving with on top. Stronghold is considerably slower on the Beyer scale, though until proven otherwise we’ll believe that his 89 figure short changes him by at least five points. He’s another that has been quite impressive in the morning leading up to the race. The son of Ghostzapper has never taken a backward move, will stay the trip, and is very likely to produce yet another career top performance. If you’re playing trifectas and supers, we strongly recommend including him underneath. The unbeaten Japanese invader Forever Young-JPN is relentless if not brilliant, and his numbers are reasonably competitive with any colt in the field not named Fierceness. A true 10 furlong-type runner that more than likely will settle somewhere in mid-pack, he should have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. We’re not inclined to underestimate him.
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RACE 13: Post: 8:00 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Jefferson Street; 6-General Partner
Backups/savers: 2-Discreet Mischief; 4-Raging Torrent.
Forecast:It’s always dangerous if not downright unwise to give full credit - or any credit - to a performance that was accomplished over a wet or muddy track. At least in this case, Jefferson Street has run well on fast tracks, too, so his highly rated, runaway maiden score over a sloppy Keeneland main strip last month may be a true indication of his natural talent, the off track, notwithstanding. A smooth-as-silk athlete with easy, flawless action, the son of Street Sense graduated by six lengths without being asked for anything close to his best, so today, on the one-level raise, we should get a truer line on his potential (hey, and if it rains, all the better). The Triple Crown-nominated sophomore has the proper pace pressing style to be very effective in extended sprints and likely two turns as well, so we’ll put the W. Mott-trained Godolphin homebred on top and anticipate that he can successfully handle the class hike. When last seen in November, General Partner was cutting out the fractions before understandably retreating at the quarter pole when displaced by Fierceness in the BC Juvenile-G1. His workouts look good for his return, he’s a first-time Lasix user for C. Brown (26% with layoffs), he’s strong in the speed figure department, and he finished second in the Champagne S.-G1 in a sea of mud, so if it’s wet on Saturday, that’s fine with him. Last year he took a race to get fit, and it’s possible he’s not completing cranked up today, so this placement in a first level allowance race rather than the Pat Day Mile-G2 may be telling.
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RACE 14: Post: 8:35 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: 1-Dive Bomber; 12-Timeout.
Backups/savers: 3-Gun Party; 6-Banned for Life.
Forecast: Dive Bomber has been away since finishing second in a killer maiden race won by General Partner (with Jefferson Street third, see 13th race) at Saratoga last September, but even if ready this one-turn mile affair will be no picnic for him, especially from his rail post position (he’d better break well). The son of Omaha Beach hails from the B. Cox barn (powerful stats with layoffs) and his local work tab is especially impressive, so this first time Lasix user deserves top billing, though at 9/5 on the morning line there’s not a lot of value to be found. The second times starter Timeout may be equally intriguing at the price at 6-1 on the morning line. A big, growthy son of Curlin who looks and runs like a thoroughbred version of a camel, he nonetheless displayed some ability when overcoming a slow start in his debut last month at Keeneland to finish second behind runaway winner Discreet Mischief (see 13th race) without being knocked about in an obvious educational run. Draw comfortably outside while getting an extra furlong to work with and retaining F. Prat, the W. Mott-trained colt seems certain to produce a forward move. There’s plenty of room for development, for sure.
Race of the Week: Turf Classic at Churchill Downs | Sat, 5/4
May 1, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The traditional Kentucky Derby lead-in, Churchill Downs' Turf Classic, has been the perfect preliminary since the great Manila christened the race in 1987. From Lure and Paradise Creek to Wise Dan, some of the most memorable grass horses have used this massive stage to show off their ability. It's Race 11 of 14 on the program and part of a two-day Pick 3 that includes the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby as bookends.
Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on 10 key stakes races Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs, including the Turf Classic and Kentucky Derby, if your win bet finishes second or third. There's also a $50,000 Exacta-Thon promotion split $25,000 each over those two days of racing.
Field Depth:
FAR BRIDGE and PROGRAM TRADING are existing Grade 1 winners. INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, WEBSLINGER and NAVAL POWER are all Grade 2 winners who also are Grade 1-placed. NEVER SURPRISED is also Grade 1-placed.
Pace:
NEVER SURPRISED should have no problem controlling the front as potential lone speed. Who sits in the pressing flight is less clear, though INTEGRATION, CELLIST and PROGRAM TRADING are candidates who could benefit from what looks like a mild tempo. Deep closers could be disadvantaged.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-INTEGRATION: Star 3YO failed to deliver in his pair of starts since facing elders, but chased a very fast pace in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup when an even fifth, and then shortened up to a trip too sharp for him in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. The softer tempo expected here and 9F distance could bring out his best. Shug McGaughey won this race with the great Lure, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione piloted '22 winner Santin.
#2-ANGLOPHILE: Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Derby winner takes on the toughest field of his career while trying to nix a 4-race losing streak. Mid-pack style benefits from positive post position and jockey John Velazquez found glory in this race in 2014 with Wise Dan, though this would be a much bigger surprise. Prefer others.
#3-CELLIST: Won the 12F Louisville over this course in 2022 and comes off an eye-catching win at Turfway in the Kentucky Cup Classic. He's as good as he's ever been at age 6, drawn very well and could be sitting just off the speed with a great trip under Luis Saez. Maybe not as brilliant on turf as some of these over 9F, but he's Mr. Right Now.
#4-FAR BRIDGE: Allowance winner at Gulfstream in his only '24 outing, trainer Christophe Clement looks to add to this one's Grade 1 Belmont Derby credentials in a good form cycle spot. Jose Ortiz has been a good fit on the English Channel colt, and note he was responsible for Yoshida's winning trip in this race in 2018.
#5-PROGRAM TRADING: Trainer Chad Brown looks for a record fourth Turf Classic win with the first of 2 entrants (he'll also send out I'm Very Busy). Unbeaten in 5 starts but for a runner-up to Integration in the Virginia Derby at Colonial in September. The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby winner takes on older stakes horses for the first time and makes his first start i more than 5 months. Should sit a great trip in the first half of the field.
#6-I'M VERY BUSY: Rallying runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf to the since-retired star mare Warm Heart, he had a breakthrough performance last out in the Mervin Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds. Overcame post 13 in New Orleans with an eye-catching, wide move off the far turn. Pace won't be to his favor, but trainer Brown is a 3-time winner of this race as is jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., including 2 of the last 3 years.
#7-WEBSLINGER: Consistent closer delivers his run from the absolute tail of the field and could be compromised here by a lack of heated pace. Won the American Turf over Derby weekend a year ago among a 2-2 local grass record. Javier Castellano has to keep him closer Saturday if he's to win his third Turf Classic.
#8-NEVER SURPRISED: Could be a big 90 minutes for Repole Stable and trainer Todd Pletcher with this front-running threat and Fierceness poised next in Kentucky Derby 150. Pletcher has won this race 3 times, including 2 of the last 3 years. Consistent colt is 10-12 in the exacta and takes them as far as he can under Florent Geroux, an excellent turf speed rider in a new pairing. Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps to ride I'm Very Busy. Distance question as he'll extend beyond to optimum trip.
#9-NEVER EXPLAIN: Late-running winner of the Tampa Bay Stakes most recently, he won last year's Dinner Party on the Preakness undercard and can recall some of that big-crowd experience in the Derby Day melee. Likely to take back under patient rider Joel Rosario, but some of his better efforts have been from a closer-up perch. The latter might serve him better in this race shape.
#10-SIEGE OF BOSTON: Gulfstream and Laurel allowance winner has dropped 5 straight decisions and has given himself too much to do in 3 straight stakes rallies that came up just short. Takes his course with him witnessed by those efforts in Churchill's River City, the Tampa Bay Stakes and GP's Canadian Turf. Steps up in class and doesn't get a preferable pace scenario in front of him.
#11-NAVAL POWER: Morning line favorite will vie for the public sentiment with I'm Very Busy. Sharp second in the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland behind Charlie Appleby / Godolphin stablemate Master of the Seas, the reigning Breeders' Cup Mile winner. Post will do him no favors, but veteran Frankie Dettori will put him in the best position he can muster for a colt whose 8: 6-1-0 record speaks for itself. Second-off-the-plane sometimes can be a regression for international runners who remain stateside.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
I'M VERY BUSY is 8-9 in the superfecta lifetime and razor-sharp right now. Even if the pace doesn't help his late run, expect him to be flying late for a share.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
The soft early pace scenario puts 10-1 morning line proposition NEVER SURPRISED in a great spot to last for a share and threaten a heist.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$12 trifecta part-wheel INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, NAVAL POWER with NEVER SURPRISED with INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, NAVAL POWER ($72). $28 daily double INTEGRATION to FIERCENESS in Kentucky Derby 150.
Jon White: Kentucky Derby Picks, Analysis and Strikes
May 1, 2024 | By Jon White
Which Fierceness is going to show up? Will it be the Fierceness who has won races by 11 1/4, 6 1/4 and 13 1/2 lengths? Or will it be the Fierceness who has let chalk players down by being defeated at odds of 1-2 and 1-5?
Can Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom avoid a troubled trip and come from far back in a 20-horse field to emerge victorious in this 1 1/4-mile classic?
Will the undefeated Forever Young finally end an abysmal 0-for-19 record in the Kentucky Derby by UAE Derby starters? Will he be able to add America’s Kentucky Derby to Japan’s ever-growing list of important victories on the world stage?
Or is another upset in store this year, a la Mage at 15-1 last year or Rich Strike’s shocker at 80-1 in 2022?
Those are but some of the key questions to be answered when the $5 million Kentucky Derby -- America’s oldest continuously run sporting event -- is held for the 150th time at Churchill Downs this Saturday (May 4).
From the rail out, the 20 entrants are Dornoch (20-1 on the morning line), Sierra Leone (3-1), Mystik Dan (20-1), Catching Freedom (8-1), Catalytic (30-1), Just Steel (20-1), Honor Marie (20-1), Just a Touch (10-1), T O Password (30-1), Forever Young (10-1), Track Phantom (20-1), West Saratoga (50-1), Endlessly (30-1), Domestic Product (30-1), Grand Mo the First (50-1), Fierceness (5-2 favorite), Stronghold (20-1), Resilience (20-1), Society Man (50-1) and Epic Ride (30-1)
The lone horse on the also-eligible list is Mugatu (30-1).
Lexington Stakes winner Encino had been entered in the Kentucky Derby, but it was announced Tuesday (April 30) that he would be scratched. To the credit of Daily Racing Form’s David Grening, he reported the reason for the scratch, a soft tissue strain in the colt’s right front leg.
Trainer Brad Cox told Grening that Encino galloped in the first set of horses Tuesday morning over the Churchill main track.
“Back at the barn the horse showed signs of being off,” Grening wrote. “The horse was vanned to Dr. Larry Bramlage at the Rood and Riddle Hospital in Lexington, Ky., where X-rays taken were negatative but the soft tissue strain was diagnosed.”
Mike Battaglia has installed dazzling Florida Derby winner Fierceness as the 5-2 favorite on the Kentucky Derby morning line. (I congratulate Battaglia for this being his 50th straight year that he has made the morning line for this world-famous event, a remarkable accomplishment.)
Who is going to win this year’s Kentucky Derby? I think it will be either Fierceness or Forever Young. I consider Fierceness to be the most probable winner. But I am making Forever Young my top choice because he is going to be a better price in the betting.
Forever Young is seeking to follow in the footsteps of his paternal grandsire, Sunday Silence, who won the Run for the Roses in 1989.
Below are my selections for the 2024 Kentucky Derby:
1. Forever Young (10-1 morning line)
2. Fierceness (5-2 favorite)
3. Sierra Leone (3-1)
4. Catching Freedom (8-1)
Rounding out my final Kentucky Derby Top 10:
5. Honor Marie (20-1)
6. Mystik Dan (20-1)
7. Domestic Product (30-1)
8. Stronghold (20-1)
9. Endlessly (30-1)
10. Dornoch (20-1)
Below is a horse-by-horse look at my Kentucky Derby Top 10, from #1 down to #10:
Ranked #1 FOREVER YOUNG. Post Position 11. Morning line 10-1. Jockey Ryusai Sakai. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi.
Some may ask, “Jon, how in the heck can you not make Fierceness your top pick? He’s the fastest horse in the race. He just ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Florida Derby by a record 13 1/2 lengths.”
Well, if I once was bold enough to not make Bellamy Road my top pick in the 2005 Kentucky Derby despite the fact that he was coming off a 120 Beyer Speed Figure, then why not go with someone other Fierceness as my top pick this year?
In 2005, I opted for Closing Argument, who was coming off only an 88 Beyer when he ran third in the Blue Grass Stakes, a race he lost by nine lengths.
Not surprisingly, in light of Bellamy Road’s gigantic 120 Beyer, he was sent away as the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. Closing Argument? He was virtually ignored by the bettors, going off at 71-1.
The primary reason Closing Argument was my choice to win that Kentucky Derby was I thought he had a pretty good chance to be first or second with a furlong to go. History shows that the vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners were in that prime position a furlong from home.
It turned out that Closing Argument was in front by a half-length a furlong from this finish. He continued to have the lead until getting overtaken in the shadow of the wire by 50-1 longshot Giacomo. Closing Argument finished second, just a half-length behind Giacomo.
Though Closing Argument did not win, I still consider it to be one of my best Kentucky Derby picks. He paid $70 for each $2 place ticket.
Bellamy Road ended up seventh. He often is cited as an example of a disappointing Kentucky Derby finish by a horse coming off a huge performance. However, Bellamy Road probably had an excuse for his defeat. Three days after the Kentucky Derby, Bellamy Road was found to have popped a splint in his left front leg, the Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported. It was a plausible explanation as to why Bellamy Road did not run better in the Kentucky Derby.
Finishing third as the 9-2 second favorite in the 2005 Kentucky Derby was Afleet Alex, who would go on to capture the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He would be voted the 2005 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.
Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex were widely regarded as the two best 3-year-olds going into the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Did either of them win? No.
Fierceness and Sierra Leone are widely regarded as the best two 3-year-olds going into the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Will either of them win? Maybe. Maybe not.
While most people see Fierceness and Sierra Leone as the two best, who’s to say that it isn’t Forever Young? All Forever Young has done is win all five of his races on five different tracks in three different countries.
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Japanese horses were overmatched against American or European horses. But that’s been far from the case in recent years. The turning point for me was when I watched Japan’s Cesario crush a strong field of 3-year-old fillies from all over the world in the American Oaks at Hollywood Park in 2005. Cesario ran off before the race, won by four lengths and recorded a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. I knew right then and there that, going forward, one had better take Japanese horses very seriously.
I wrote this for Xpressbet.com prior to this year’s Saudi Cup: “How much of a force have the Japanese become in Thoroughbred racing? One need not look past the exploits of Japan’s Equinox, a fantastic equine athlete widely regarded as the best racehorse on the planet last year.”
By the way, in terms of Forever Young and Sierra Leone, I was stunned earlier this year when my friend and enthusiastic racing fan Ryan Stillman pointed out to me that the two colts have the same second dam, Darling My Darling.
“How could this be?” I thought. After all, Forever Young is a Japanese-bred colt, while Sierra Leone is a Kentucky-bred colt. But it’s true. They have the same maternal granddam.
Forever Young’s dam, Forever Darling, won the Grade II Santa Ynez Stakes in 2015.
Sierra Leone’s dam, Heavenly Love, won the Grade I Alcibiades in 2017.
Darling My Darling, a daughter of Deputy Minister and the Mining mare Roamin Rachel, won two ungraded stakes races during her 13-race career. Deputy Minister was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 1981. I won a sizable wager on Mining at Belmont Park in the fall of 1988, then he finished 10th in his next start as the 8-5 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs.
Forever Young was three for three last year in Japan. He has the distinction of being Japan’s highest-rated dirt 2-year-old in that country’s history.
In the Saudi Derby on Feb. 24, Forever Young lacked early speed, ran hard all the way down the lane and just got up to win by a head at 1,600 meters (about one mile). Many knocked him for not winning by a larger margin. Many knocked him for running on his left lead all the way down the stretch. But I thought it actually was an admirable performance.
“It is true that Forever Young won the Saudi Derby by only a small margin,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com. “But I believe he deserved kudos for coming away with a victory despite racing in a country other than Japan for the first time, despite competing in a race around one turn for the first time, despite a tardy beginning and despite a wide journey.”
Additionally, Forever Young’s final time of 1:36.17 obliterated the track record. The old mark had been 1:37.91 set by Full Flat in the inaugural Saudi Derby in 2020. Forever Young’s 1:36 flat clocking in fifths was about nine lengths faster than Full Flat’s 1:37 4/5.”
I think it’s noteworthy that, according to Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin, when Forever Young won the Saudi Derby, he ran “basically as fast” as older stars Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesora when they finished one-two on that same card in the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race.
Would Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesora be awfully tough if they competed in the Kentucky Derby as older horses? I sure think so. And so, considering Forever Young ran “basically as fast” as those two elite equine athletes on Feb. 24, I believe it certainly gives Forever Young a license to win this Saturday.
A friend of mine emailed me in early March to pass along his thoughts of Forever Young after seeing that I had the Saudi Derby winner at the top of my Kentucky Derby rankings. I will call my friend Mr. X.
Mr. X’s opinion deserves a lot of respect. He really knows his stuff. His email to me did not pull any punches.
“Forever Young? Are you drinking?” Mr. X wrote. “You won’t find him with a search warrant in the Kentucky Derby. He has no chance. Saudi Derby knocked him out.”
After that email, I became concerned that perhaps Forever Young’s Saudi Derby effort had taken too much of a toll on him and that he might not win the UAE Derby at 1,000 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) on March 30. But Forever Young did win the UAE Derby by two lengths. The runner-up was a 4-year-old from Argentina, Auto Bahn. This time Forever Young switched to his right lead with about 400 meters to go and stayed on that lead to the finish.
I thought Forever Young won the UAE Derby rather comfortably, with his ears going back and forth. It should be pointed out that in fairness to Auto Bahn, he packed 131 pounds, 10 more than Forever Young.
In the UAE Derby, Forever Young came from off the pace and raced wide on a track that might have been favoring early speed and an inside trip.
T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News observed that while the four dirt races on the Dubai World Cup card at Meydan provided “only a limited sample, two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the ground-conceding run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of an inside-favoring track.”
For many horseplayers, Forever Young automatically took himself out of Kentucky Derby consideration simply by running in the UAE Derby. That’s because no UAE starter has ever finished better than fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Master of Hounds ran fifth in the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the 2011 UAE Derby.
I’ve heard it said time and time again that going from Japan to Saudi Arabia, then on to Dubai, then on to Kentucky is just too much traveling.
Look, I get it. That much traveling is far from ideal. But the way people talk, you would think Forever Young had to swim all the way across the Atlantic, land on the East Coast, then pull a covered wagon all the way to Kentucky.
After the UAE Derby, I received another email from Mr. X, who most definitely is a member of the anti-Forever Young club.
“Forever Young can’t win the Kentucky Derby,” my friend wrote this time. “No chance to hit the board. Way too much traveling and it shows in latest videos. Not a super horse. If he wins then he is a freak.”
Do I think Forever Young is a super horse? No. Do I think he is a freak? No. Do I think he is as good as such Kentucky Derby winners in the last 20 years as Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Street Sense, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist or Justify? I’d say probably not, though I also wouldn’t completely rule it out at this point since Forever Young has won all of his races to date.
However, I do think Forever Young might be as good as such Kentucky Derby winners as Animal Kingdom and Authentic. That could be good enough for Forever Young to win the roses this year.
And I think Forever Young might well be better than such Kentucky Derby winners as Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver, Orb, Always Dreaming, Country House, Mandaloun, Rich Strike and Mage.
Television broadcaster Randy Moss, a member of the team that makes Beyer Speed Figures, does not agree with those who say Forever Young can’t win the Kentucky Derby because he ran in the UAE Derby.
“You’re going to hear a lot about the record of UAE Derby horses in the Kentucky Derby, which is 0 for 19,” Moss said on a podcast hosted by Peter Fornatale. “And I think you should take that with a colossal grain of salt, for a couple of reasons.
“Number one, the average price of those horses has been 23 1/2-1. If you think back on it, in all the time that Sheikh Mohammed and others have been bringing horses from Dubai to the Kentucky Derby, really only four of them came into Louisville with any credentials and any kind of shot of all, in hindsight, to handle the mile and a quarter. A lot of them were miler, sprinter-miler types. Maybe the best they brought over was a horse named Street Cry (future sire of America’s great Zenyatta and Australia’s great Winx). Street Cry didn’t make the race because he suffered an ankle injury a week out.
“Another was Mendelssohn, who had never experienced kickback. He was bumped at the start of the Kentucky Derby on a very sloppy track. He not only got kickback, he got mud balls in his face, and didn’t like it all. He ran last.
“Then there was Thunder Snow, who turned into a bucking bronco on a sloppy track as soon as the gates opened. I’ve seen a hundred-thousand races in my life. I’ve never seen that before or since. So throw him out. And he wound up winning back-to-back runnings of the Dubai World Cup and $16 million on the track. So Thunder Snow clearly was a very good horse.
“And then the other one was Derma Sotogake. He didn’t really get off to a great start last year, but it was a race that favored horses that came from well back, witness Mage because of the fast pace. I really don’t give Derma Sotogake that much of an excuse.
“So really, out of that 0 for 19, I consider it to be 0 for 1. Only one horse had a legitimate chance to win and didn’t win the way the race was run. And it’s not like Derma Sotogake ran poorly. I mean, he finished sixth in there, made a little run around the [far] turn. So I don’t pay much attention to the 0 for 19 in the UAE Derby.”
Though Derma Sotogake could finish no better than sixth in the Kentucky Derby, he did go on to finish second to White Abarrio in the BC Classic at Santa Anita while outrunning the likes of Proxy, Arabian Knight, Ushba Tesoro, Bright Future, Senor Buscador and Saudi Crown.
Many have expressed a concern that Forever Young is likely to have to deal with dirt kickback in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby. That’s something he pretty much did not encounter in either the Saudi Derby or UAE Derby due to being kept wide in those two races.
“For the most part, those ground-conceding tactics [in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby] have been by design to keep Forever Young from being pelted by kickback from horses in front of him,” the TDN’s Thornton wrote. “His connections are on record as saying that the colt dislikes the dirt spray, and he was equipped with a sort of facemask (like blinkers without the cups) in his last race at Meydan.
“Is Forever Young’s aversion to kickback a reason to discount his chances in the Kentucky Derby? Probably not if you otherwise like his chances…He won three times in Japan at age 2 despite being in spots where he was forced to take at least some kickback.”
Meanwhile, I love Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph pattern going into the Kentucky Derby.
As I have written many times, while I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote last week: “What can you say about a horse who wins in Japan getting a 5 3/4 Thoro-Graph number, however that is computed, then travels to Saudi Arabia for the [about] one-mile Saudi Derby and runs a 1 Thoro-Graph number, winning despite a wide trip, not changing leads down that long stretch, and still closing relentlessly to nail a pretty fast American runner [Book’em Danno]. With such a hard race under him he then travels to Dubai for the UAE Derby, stretching out to [about] 1 3/16 miles against a much stronger field, is forced to go wide again, and runs down a 4-year-old Argentine-bred colt who was opening up a five-length lead on the rest of the field. Not only did Forever Young win by two lengths and not bounce off the Saudi Derby, he ran another 1 Thoro-Graph number, giving him the fastest back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. That was backed up by his Ragozin pairing of 6 and 6, also the fastest back-back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. So now the question is, what should we expect in the Kentucky Derby, with him having to travel again? He did arrive safely, so the first step is out of the way. This colt seems to have a very high ceiling and he is undefeated in three countries. Let’s say the Japanese are due after several failed attempts by horses far slower than Forever Young. So if not now, when?”
Haskin also has noted that with Forever Young having posted Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 in Saudi Arabia and 1 in Dubai, “no 3-year-old has even come close to running back-to-back numbers that fast, and the fact that he was able to pair up that number strongly suggests he can now move forward off it.”
If Forever Young does indeed move forward off his back-to-back Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 in the Saudi Derby and 1 in the UAE Derby, it says to me that the Real Steel colt will have a good chance to win the Kentucky Derby.
I think another reason that Forevever Young might make a forward move in the Kentucky Derby is his trainer.
As I recently wrote for Xpressbet.com: “I have seen enough of Yahagi’s work to consider him to be an elite horseman. I expect Yahagi to have Forever Young as ready as humanly possible to run a biggie on the first Saturday in May. Yahagi being in Forever Young’s corner is a major reason I think this colt represents Japan’s best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
“I became a believer in Yahagi when he won not one, but two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.
“In 2022, Yahagi won the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race, with Panthalassa. As a prime example of Yahagi’s tremendous ability as a trainer, Panthalassa had not raced on dirt prior to the Saudi Cup.”
All in all, I consider this year’s Kentucky Derby to be a golden opportunity to get odds of around 10-1 on a 3-year-old who has so much going for him.
I think Haskin put it quite well when he wrote last week: Forever Young “probably has more individual strengths than any horse in the race. He is undefeated in five starts in three countries. He has proven so far that travel does not affect him even when he has a rough time of it, as he did from Japan to Saudi Arabia. He has won stakes in Saudi Arabia at [about] one mile and [about] 1 3/16 miles. He has overcome bad posts, wide trips and failing to change leads the length of the stretch and still finds a way to win. His victory in the Saudi Derby required tremendous determination after he appeared hopelessly beaten in the stretch. His times have compared favorably with those of the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, and his back to back ‘1’s’ on Thoro-Graph are the fastest successive races of any horse in the race. He has run down a fast American miler [Book’em Danno] at [about] a mile and a 4-year-old Argentine horse at [about] 1 3/16 miles. His winning margins have been two, four and seven lengths and the margins between the second- and third-place finisher have been eight lengths, six lengths and 4 3/4 lengths. So he always decimates the rest of the field. Despite racing in three countries he has won his five races at five different racetracks, both left- and right-handed.”
Ranked #2 FIERCENESS. Post Position 17. Morning line 5-2 favorite. Jockey John Velazquez. Trainer Todd Pletcher.
As I said earlier, I consider Fierceness to be the most probable winner. The reason I’m going with Forever Young as my top pick is he will be a much better price.
Fierceness has looked like a superstar in his 11 1/2-length maiden win, 6 1/4-length Breeders’ Cup Juvenile triumph and 13 1/2-length Florida Derby tour de force.
But Fierceness has looked ordinary in his two losses. The Kentucky-bred City of Light colt lost by 20 1/4 lengths when seventh last year as a 1-2 favorite in the Champagne Stakes, which was contested on a sloppy track. When pounded down to 1-5 favoritism in the Holy Bull Stakes this year, he finished third and lost by 3 1/2 lengths when racing on dry land.
I believe it would not have been good for Fierceness if he had drawn a post toward the inside. But exiting the gate from post 16 (after the news Tuesday that Encino would be scratched) actually is good for him, I think.
This really isn’t complicated. Fierceness sports the two highest Beyer Speed Figures going into the Kentucky Derby, a 105 in the BC Juvenile and 110 in the Florida Derby. He also sports the two best Thoro-Graph numbers. He’s the only horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby with negative numbers. He received a negative 1 1/2 in the BC Juvenile and a negative 3 1/4 in the Florida Derby.
One major concern for Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby is Andy Beyer said this week on Steve Byk’s SiriuxXM radio program At the Races that “my exacta is Fierceness over Just a Touch.”
That is worrisome for Fierceness. Beyer himself readily admits that the record of his top pick in the three Triple Crown races is awful.
In one of the most woeful exhibitions of public handicapping ever seen, Beyer’s top choice in each of the 2015 Triple Crown races was badly outrun.
Before the 2015 Kentucky Derby, I stated in the Louisville Courier-Journal that American Pharoah “reminds me of Seattle Slew” and “just might sweep the Triple Crown.” Did Beyer pick American Pharoah? No, Beyer thought that American Pharoah was “overrated.”
Beyer made it clear on Byk’s program in 2015 that he didn’t think that American Pharoah deserved the hype he was getting prior to the Kentucky Derby. Beyer picked Upstart to win. American Pharoah won by one length. Upstart? He was eased and finished 60 1/2 lengths behind American Pharoah.
Firing Line then was Beyer’s top pick in the Preakness. American Pharoah won by seven lengths. Firing Line? He stumbled at the start, was eased and finished 45 lengths behind American Pharoah.
After what happened in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, you might think Beyer finally had learned his lesson and picked American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes, right? Nope. Beyer’s top pick was Materiality. American Pharoah won by 5 1/2 lengths to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought. Materiality? He finished last, 22 1/4 lengths behind American Pharoah.
That means that while American Pharoah was running his way into the history books by sweeping the Triple Crown, Beyer’s top pick lost those three races by a combined 127 3/4 lengths.
Ranked #3 SIERRA LEONE. Post position 2. Morning line 5-2. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Chad Brown.
Can Sierra Leone make his move early enough to be first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby? If he is not first or second a furlong from home, I believe the odds are against him winning based on what has occurred in the last 61 years.
Of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners, 93% were first or second a furlong out.
In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 17, Sierra Leone was fourth with a furlong to go before charging home to prevail by a half-length.
In the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 6, Sierra Leone again was fourth a furlong out before rallying to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths.
At least Sierra Leone did manage to be in front by a head a furlong from home after trailing early in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last Dec. 2. That indicates it’s far from impossible that Sierra Leone will be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.
I think Sierra Leone is a very talented colt. As such, I certainly consider him to be a major player in the Kentucky Derby.
Not only has Sierra Leone won both starts this year, he’s been flattered by what two of his Risen Star victims subsequently achieved. Catching Freedom took the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 23. Resilience won the Grade II Wood Memorial on April 6.
However, based on Sierra Leone’s two performances this year, I just can’t help wondering if he will make his move early enough to be first or second a furlong from the finish on May 4. I think it’s more likely that he will be coming on late to finish second, third or fourth.
Regarding Sierra Leone, I thought the TDN’s Thornton recently made an interesting observation regarding the colt’s Blue Grass victory.
“Despite being visually arresting, the timing of Sierra Leone’s finish was on the tepid side,” Thornton noted. “While the early part of the Blue Grass featured revved-up opening quarter-mile splits of :23.15 and :23.33 [for the first half-mile], Sierra Leone closed ground through a final furlong in :13.43. That’s the slowest last eighth among all the nine points-awarding preps run at 1 1/8 miles in 2023-24.”
I think Sierra Leone’s reluctance to go into the starting gate prior to the Blue Grass also has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It is to Sierra Leone’s credit that he overcame such behavior and still won Blue Grass. But when Sierra Leone finds himself amidst a much larger crowd on hand for the Kentucky Derby, what if he acts like that again?
Granted, Sierra Leone has undergone gate schooling at Churchill Downs since the Blue Grass. But while reports are that the gate schooling sessions have gone well, that did not take place amid a crowd in excess of 150,000, which will be the case for Sierra Leone this Saturday.
Sierra Leone is a Kentucky-bred colt by Gun Runner. Voted Horse of the Year in 2017, Gun Runner will be inducted into the national Hall of Fame this summer.
Ranked #4 CATCHING FREEDOM. Post position 4. Morning Line 8-1. Jockey Flavien Prat. Trainer Brad Cox.
Can Catching Freedom become the first winner of the Louisiana Derby to go on and capture the Kentucky Derby since Grindstone all the way back in 1996?
A Kentucky-bred Constitution colt, Catching Freedom rallied from last in a field of 11 to win the Louisiana Derby by one length.
Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom is a come-from-behind type who is rather iffy in my eyes as to whether he will be able to be first or second a furlong from home on May 4. Again, in the last 61 Kentucky Derbies, only four Kentucky Derby winners -- Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022 -- were not first or second a furlong out.
Ranked #5 HONOR MARIE. Post position 7. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey Ben Curtis. Trainer Whit Beckman.
I look at Honor Marie as a legit candidate to finish in the superfecta. The Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt, a May 4 foal running in the May 4 Kentucky Derby, recorded a bullet five-furlong workout in :59.20 at Churchill on April 25.
Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, Honor Marie seemingly has an affinity for the Churchill main track (3 starts, 2 wins, 1 second). He closed strongly from well off the pace to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes going away by two lengths last fall.
The Kentucky Jockey Club was inaugurated in 1989. Super Saver won that race in 2008. Even though the Kentucky Jockey Club is run on the same oval as the Kentucky Derby, Super Saver is the only Kentucky Jockey Club winner to subsequently win the Kentucky Derby.
Ranked #6 MYSTIK DAN. Post position 3. Morning line 20-1. Jockey Brian Hernandez. Trainer Kenny McPeek.
Can Mystik Dan win a Grade I race on a fast track? His best performance by far to date came when victorious in the Grade III Southwest Stakes on a muddy track, an effort that produced a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
In his next start after the Southwest, Mystik Dan lost by 6 1/4 lengths on a fast track when finishing third to Muth and Just Steel in the Grade I Arkansas Derby.
If it turns out that the Kentucky Derby is decided on a wet track, Mystik Dan undoubtedly will become more appealing to bettors.
But keep in mind that Mystic Dan did record a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on a fast track when the Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint by 7 3/4 lengths at Churchill last Nov. 12.
Ranked #7 DOMESTIC PRODUCT. Post position 15. Morning line 30-1. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer Chad Brown.
Right off the bat, there are worse things than putting money on a horse at such long odds on the morning line who has a five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey and a four-time Eclipse Award winning trainer.
I am looking forward to seeing what Domestic Product can do if the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt gets a faster pace than when he won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. He prevailed by just a neck and recorded only an 82 Beyer. But I think it takes a pretty darn good colt to come from behind and win despite such a snail-like early tempo of :25.25 for the first quarter-mile, :51.14 for the half, then 1:16.21 for three-quarters.
It is a cinch that Domestic Product is going to get a considerably faster pace to close into in the Kentucky Derby. For instance, last year’s early fractions in the Derby were :22.35, :45.74 and 1:10.11.
I, for one, will not be surprised if Domestic Product makes his presence felt in the final furlong this Saturday.
Ranked #8 STRONGHOLD. Post position 18. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey Antonio Fresu. Trainer Phil D’Amato.
Stronghold is coming off a hard-fought win in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s not often that a horseplayer can get odds of around 20-1 on a Grade I winner who has never finished worse than second. In six career starts, the Kentucky-bred colt by 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper has three wins and three seconds.
The biggest issue I have for Stronghold is his Beyer Speed Figures aren’t higher than 89 for his victories in the Sunland Derby and Santa Anita Derby. It’s probably going to take a Beyer of 100 or higher to win the Kentucky Derby.
A plus for Stronghold is he already has won on Churchill’s main track. He earned his maiden diploma in a one-mile contest at Churchill Downs last Oct. 1. Among the vanquished in that maiden race were fellow Kentucky Derby entrants Resilience and Track Phantom. Resilience would go on to win the Grade II Wood Memorial. Track Phantom won this year’s Grade III Lecomte.
Ranked #9 ENDLESSLY. Post position 14. Morning line 30-1. Jockey Umberto Rispoli. Trainer Michael McCarthy.
This will be Endlessly’s first start on dirt. He’s three for four on turf and two for two on synthetic.
After Endlessly won Turfway Park’s Jeff Ruby by a widening four lengths on synthetic March 23 for Amerman Racing Stables, McCarthy said the Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt would be making his next start in the Grade II American Turf on the Kentucky Derby undercard.
Is Endlessly probably better on turf and synthetic than dirt? I’d say that he probably is, especially since his workouts on the dirt don’t exactly get the pulse racing.
But I can understand that it’s the preference of owners John and Jerry Amerman for Endlessly to run in the Kentucky Derby. Look, you only get one shot to win this coveted race. So why not take it? If it doesn’t work out, Endlessly always can go back to racing on turf.
With just one loss on Endlessly’s resume, I honestly don’t think it’s impossible for him to give a good account of himself on dirt this Saturday.
Ranked #10 DORNOCH. Post position 1. Morning line 20-1. Jockey Luis Saez. Trainer Danny Gargan.
When Dornoch was last seen under silks in the Blue Grass, Gargan wanted to see what would happen if the colt was rated early. It resulted in a fourth-place finish and a 6 1/2-length defeat. Because it was an experiment that backfired, I think a line can be drawn through Dornoch’s Blue Grass.
I don’t think there is any doubt that the game plan this Saturday will be for Saez to gun early, particularly after Dornoch drew the rail.
Prior to the Blue Grass, Dornach won the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths in front-running fashion, though he was helped by the race being weakened significantly by the scratches of Merit, Victory Avenue, Locked and Speak Easy.
Don’t forget that Dornoch is the only horse to have defeated Sierra Leone. Not only that, when Dornoch nosed out Sierra Leone in the Remsen, Dornoch won despite bouncing off the inside rail during the stretch run.
Dornoch “has dealt with a foot issue known as a quarter crack through most of his career,” the DRF’s Grening reported Wednesday (May 1).
“Noted farrier Ian McKinlay has examined Dornoch before each of his last three races -- starting with the Grade II Remsen last December, which he won-- and has done whatever work necessary to have the foot in racing condition,” Grening wrote. “On Wednesday, McKinlay was at Churchill Downs where he laced, with wires, the top part of the crack, which is on the right front foot.”
According to Grening, Dornoch’s trainer said the colt trained in a three-quarter shoe both Tuesday and Wednesday and will likely wear one on Tuesday as well. Dornoch will wear a full shoe in the Kentucky Derby.
Dornach, a Kentucky-bred son of Good Magic and Puca, is a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
No dam has produced two Kentucky Derby winners.
Good Magic would have won a Kentucky Derby if not for having to settle for second behind Justify, who went on to become the sport’s 13th Triple Crown winner and a member of this nation’s 2024 Hall of Fame class that will be inducted this summer.
Dornach’s dam is by Big Brown, who won the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
One of the reasons Forever Young is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby is he has zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System.
I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
Despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
The strikes for this year’s Kentucky Derby entrants are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Dornoch
Endlessly
Forever Young
Mystik Dan
Stronghold
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Domestic Product (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Sierra Leone (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Resilience (Categories 4 and 6)
Society Man (Categories 2 and 8)
THREE STRIKES
Epic Ride (Categories 1, 2 and 4)
Just a Touch (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
FOUR STRIKES
Mugatu (Categories 2, 3, 4 and 5)
TRACK PHANTOM TO HAVE BLINKERS ADDED
Track Phantom is listed to have blinkers added to his equipment for this year’s Kentucky Derby. He has not raced with blinkers previously.
Category 6 in my Derby Strikes System has to do with blinkers. A horse gets a strike if blinkers are added or removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby. The reason for this strike is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer generally would not be tinkering with equipment so late in the game. Going all the way back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.
Track Phantom does not get a strike for adding blinkers in the Kentucky Derby. Why? Because the Derby Strikes System is designed to determine a horse’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby based on his or her races BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.
While Track Phantom is listed to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby and it’s probably going to happen, that’s not set in stone. There are countless examples of a horse having an equipment change of blinkers on or off listed in the past performances, yet it doesn’t happen.
Even though Track Phantom doesn’t get a strike for adding blinkers Saturday, the principle is the same in that if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, a trainer typically would not be tinkering with the horse’s equipment so late in the game.
Track Phantom officially has one strike. But if he does in fact add blinkers in the Kentucky Derby, I will consider it to be an unofficial strike for him.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. This is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2023, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 279 Senor Buscador (20)
2. 220 National Treasure (4)
3. 158 Master of the Seas (1)
4. 139 White Abarrio
5. 132 Idiomatic (3)
6. 101 Adare Manor
7. 112 First Mission
8. 74 Skippylongstocking
9. 73 Saudi Crown
10. 56 Newgate
Though they did not make the Top 10, Laurel River and The Chosen Vron each received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 285 Sierra Leone (18)
2. 279 Fierceness (11)
3. 204 Muth (1)
4. 173 Catching Freedom
5. 153 Stronghold
6. 98 Nysos
7. 97 Forever Young
8. 69 Just a Touch
9. 67 Resilience
10. 49 Endlessly
Scott Shapiro: Betting the Derby Superfecta
May 2, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Betting the Derby Superfecta on a $100 and on a $500 Budget
So many wagers to choose from on Kentucky Derby Day and a slew of options that involve the “Run for the Roses” in one form or another, but one that sticks out from the rest is the Superfecta.
Horseplayers are accustomed to being able to punch 10-cent superfecta tickets regularly in the States these days, but not for the Derby where Superfecta wagering began in 1996. However, one could argue it did not take its true shape until 2001 when coupled entries were omitted, as was the Field as part of the wagering options. Since, then the payouts have been regularly massive with the largest one coming in 2005 when they went at it on the front end and Giacomo came rolling to score at 50-1. Those holding the winning ticket were rewarded with $864,253!!!
A similar race shape led to another huge score for skilled horseplayers in 2022 when Rich Strike shocked the world under Sonny Leon. The Eric Reed trainee finished on top of the two favorites Epicenter and Zandon and it still returned a juicy $321, 500.10 for a buck.
Now do not get the idea that scoring out in this fashion is easy or remotely close, but the point is this is the one-race each year in the States that offers a huge field and the dollar minimum. Therefore, if your budget allows for it, getting involved is recommended.
Here is how I will be approaching Kentucky Derby 150 with both a $100 and a $500 budget.
$100 Budget:
Normally a Ben Franklin can get you pretty far at the track when playing minimum increments, but not on the first Saturday in May. So, it is imperative to maximize things by leaning on your strongest opinions. In this Derby, that means leaning heavily on my top choice #8 Just a Touch and needing #2 Sierra Leone to find his way into the number as well. You will notice I have omitted the morning line favorite #17 Fierceness, whom I listed as a backup in a previous blog. I consider the Florida Derby winner worth including as a backup in horizontals if you like prices in other legs. I also understand including him in the Superfecta wagers if you like longshots as keys in the Derby more than I do.
You can see how quickly combinations add up with a dollar minimum even keying a horse in two slots. Essentially, 72% of my budget relies on Just a Touch winning and Sierra Leone finishing second or third. With the remaining amount, I will use Sierra Leone on top with my Just a Touch for second, but am forced to omit #7 Honor Marie in the third slot to stay under budget. I prefer making this move instead of omitting a number of runners in the four-hole.
Ticket 1:
8 with 2 with 4+6+7+21 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $36
Ticket 2:
8 with 4+6+7+21 with 2 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $36
Ticket 3:
2 with 8 with 4+6+21 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $27
Budget = $99 ($1 left for a cold Super or to put towards another bet)
$500 Budget:
Now beefing your 2024 Derby Superfecta budget to a “nickel” bumps up your options considerably, but maybe not as much as a novice to the wager might think.
I will invest a little over 43% ($216) of my budget into my first three tickets where I need my top two to make up two-thirds of the trifecta. From there, one thing the larger budget allows is the option to punch a few tickets keying my top longshot play #6 Just Steel in the second and third slots. This gives me an opportunity to score out even more if I am right. In these wagers I will include Fierceness due to his obvious ceiling.
Ticket 1:
2+8 with 2+8 with 4+6+7+21 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $72
Ticket 2:
2+8 with 4+6+7+21 with 2+8 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $72
Ticket 3:
4+6+7+21 with 2+8 with 2+8 with 3+4+6+7+11+13+15+18+19+21 = $72
Ticket 4:
2+4+8+17+21 with 6 with 2+4+8+17+21 with 2+4+7+8+11+17+18+19+21 = $140
Ticket 5:
2+4+8+17+21 with 2+4+8+17+21 with 6 with 2+4+7+8+11+17+18+19+21 = $140
Ticket 6:
6 with 4 with 2+8 with 2+8+21 = $4
Budget= $500
The Derby is two minutes of chaos where the break and the run into the first turn always play a massive role. Things really need to go your way regardless of your handicapping prowess, but putting together quality wagers is one thing that can give you an edge over your competition. Make sure to put as much time into constructing your wagers as you do handicapping the events!
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/4/24
May 4, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel's Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Scatify; 3-Island Cruiser.
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The Sadler barn holds the aces with Scatify arguably the best of the speed types and Island Cruiser (assuming he’s ridden properly) the most dangerous of the closers. The former has no option but to be sent from the rail and based on our pace projection should be the controlling speed. ‘Cruiser’s best race was when he was held up early and allowed to blast home. Hope they go back to that strategy today.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Cowboy Mike.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Cowboy Mike is starting to get good for Baffert and seems well-placed to extend his winning streak to three. Fresh from earning a career top number against a lesser allowance field in late March, the Smiling Tiger gelding employs an effective stalking style combined with a good late kick and should be able to settle into an ideal early position and have every chance from there. However, at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 5-Queen’s Code; 1-Pioneer Prince.
Backups/savers: 2-Hawker.
Forecast: There are several races on today’s card that we really won’t want to get too involved with. This is one of them. Queen’s Code is the second choice at on the morning line t 5/2 behind Pioneer Prince (8/5) and they could finished one-two in either order. Quite frankly, we don’t trust either one, but in a shallow field the race could easily be dominated by the chalk. ‘Code comes from a cold barn and has so far preferred to finish second (five times) rather than first (once), but he had a right to be a short horse last time out when returning off a long layoff and the stable’s second-off-the-bench stats are reasonably solid. ‘Prince is slow on numbers (they’re shrinking) but he adds blinkers and could improve. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Antonsen
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Antonsen has burned money in his last pair but gets another chance at the same maiden $50,000 level and should graduate eventually, maybe even today. He’s got only one way to go from the rail, on the front end for as far as he can. He really should be able to outrun this modest group, but at 6/5 on the morning line it’s almost not worth the bother.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Notime for Squalls
Backups/savers: 6-Ok Rose; 8-Orderly Transition (GB).
Forecast: There are several reasons for Notime for Squalls to step forward in this maiden $50,000 turf miler for fillies and mares. This will be her first try in a seller, her first around two turns (with the prerequisite two recent sprints to have her sharp), the benefit of the rail draw which ensures a ground-saving trip, and a recent training track breeze that caught the eye. She’s still trying to find her proper level, but if she improves at all, she should fit nicely against this group. In a race that has several contenders with a winning chance, let’s try a gamble on this M. Glatt-trained filly with the expectation that she’ll enjoy at this longer trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Dancing Dana 2-Woodbine Way; 6-Wrong Turn Cupid.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Dancing Dana is cozily drawn outside and projects to be on the lead or pressing the pace without undue pressure. She has back numbers than can win and has hit the board in five of seven career starts over the local main track. Woodbine Way drops to her lowest level, shows the popular blinkers off angle, tries the main track, and is long overdue for a win. The S. Miyadi-trained mare has never won on dirt but against this group the surface may not matter much. Wrong Turn Cupid has solid form in mixed breed races at Los Alamitos that chart okay in this league. She actually may be the most dependable of the lot.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Planetario (Brz); 6-War At Sea; 3-Gold Phoenix.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This group knows each other well. Whose turn will it be today? Planetario (Brz) chased home Missed the Cut in his last pair but won’t have that one to worry about today. This mile and one quarter distance is his favorite trip, so we’re expecting the South American import to be along in time. War At Sea is racing in sharp form and shows three wins over the local turf track. The son of War Front has never been this far but there’s no reason he won’t handle 10 furlongs. Gold Phoenix was given a run in his seasonal bow when unplaced in the American S.-G3 last month and should get serious today. If he still has it, the six year old gelding will be running on late.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: 6-War On the West; 3-Dance Man; 4-Last Call Paul.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: War On the West is a fresh face in a soft state-bred maiden claiming abbreviated sprint. He’s trained like he has some talent and a little will go a long way against this group, so let’s take a shot in a wide open fray. Dance Man appears to be the best of the known element, for whatever that’s worth. He’s got early speed and should stick better at this distance against this group. Last Call Paul has hit the board in half of his 10 career starts and should be a threat with anything close to his best race, according to his numbers.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Hurricane Way
Backups/savers: 10-British Isles; 12-Indespensable.
Forecast: Hurricane Way was ignored on the tote in his debut (36-1) but really caught the eye with flying home to miss by a nose before galloping out far in front in an extended maiden sprint over the local lawn last month. The jump to a mile and one-eighth is a challenging one, even though he’s bred to run this far, but in a race where most of these have middling form let’s try the fresh face with arguably the most upside at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: 7-Damazio; 6-The Big Cheeseola; 4-Mobe Town.
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll triple this modest $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint and hope that at least one of them fires. Damazio faced much tougher rivals in a race that he surely needed off a long layoff in late March and seems sure to benefit from that tightener today. The J. Mullins-trained gelding shows a strong, healthy series of workouts in the interim and should improve enough to pose a serious threat at 7/2 on the morning line. The Big Cheeseola graduated in a soft maiden $50,000 dash last month with a respectable figure and is realistically spotted today in his first race facing winners. If he can turn in two alike, he’ll be right there. Mobe Town is another class dropper that has numbers that make him a major player against this group. He’ll be part of the pace throughout.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 9-Thrumps Dream (Ire); 7-Hennys Crazy Train; 4-Madiha
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for older fillies and mares that has several possibilities. We’ll try to get by using just three, but you should include as many as your budget allows. Thrumps Dream (Ire) just won at this level, was claimed for $50,000, and tries for a repeat for new trainer S. Knapp. She retains J. Hernandez and will stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time, but with three wins over the local lawn she looks formidable once again. Hennys Crazy Train, in the frame in each of her last six starts, is another trying a mile and one-eighth for the first time. She’ll be on or near what projects to be a moderate pace throughout, so she will have every chance to get the trip. Madiha, first or second in seven of 14 outings over the Santa Anita lawn, figures to at least get a piece of it again today.
Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 4, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 9 (8:08 PM EST)
1-Toy's For You (5-1)-Has trouble finishing miles but is in a good spot to get an efficient trip. Fits and the Plano trainee could get a suck-around trip and post the 1st win of the meet.
2-Niko Man (4-1)-Will need its best at this class but Niko likes to win. Has taken pictures in 8 of 18 starts and has captured 4 of 11 races here. John De Long will have the Rucker trainee racing near the top of the stack.
8-Swingforthefences (6-1)-Has drawn post 8 in 2 of the last 3 races and both times was used early to get a good seat. Beat the class below 3 races back. Comes back in sequence tonight and will look for a strong bounce back effort at a price.
Race 10 (8:30 PM EST)
4-Elegant A (7/2)-Has found the going tough since arriving from MVR 3 races back. Gets both post and class relief here. May have meet a beatable field.
6-JK'S Shining Star (8-1)-Went the back-half in 55.1 last time but was too far back. Marvin Luna has had success with the mare when getting a good early seat. Will look for an aggressive drive and the price is right to take a swing.
9-Some Big Dream (4-1)-Looked good winning in the 2nd start of the season. Regular driver Joey Putnam returns but could be overlooked with this post draw. Does well at HoP (8-6-0-1) and this mare lands in a field with mostly 4-year-olds like her.
Race 11 (8:52 PM EST)
4-Brookview Bolt (6-1)-The price is right, but not sure what to expect. Can dance with this kind winning on 4-6, but then broke stride the next week from the 8-hole. Put in a flat line on 4-20 and should be in the hunt at a price if dialed on high.
7-Dover In Motion (6/5)-Macomber trainee wins on smaller ovals as well as here. Has taken pictures in 19 of 38 lifetime and had an 8-race winning streak before being out away. Qualified nicely on 4-27 and this race will probably need to go through the classy 5-year-old.
Race 12 (9:14 PM EST)
4-Feetmadefordancin(6-1)-Joel Smith 4-year-old is 0-6 on the year and its form has been dull. Should fit and gets a new set of hands in Mike Oosting. Will look to an old Illinois connection to provide a spark at a healthy price.
6-Splash Of Pink (7/2)-Mohawk shipper put in a needed start here on 4-27. This is a big track horse that has beaten better and is a main threat if brings a top try.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,2,8/4,6,9/4,7/4,6
Total Bet=$18
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Churchill Downs - Race #10
Churchill Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Mr. Wireless He has typically been a little win shy against graded types over the last couple years, but he looked like a new horse when getting a sprint trip, and his most recent win before that also came around one turn. New specialty? #6 Zozos He just couldn't stay late in some of those tougher route races last year, but he might be cranked and ready to go for a 7-furlong comeback run. Obvious player. #3 Bo Cruz He looked good winning last out, and he might be in line for another good trip while sitting right up on the splits again. Enough to like. Race Summary Mr. Wireless gets a big class test compared to his last, but I love how he looked going short last out and think he might stamp himself a real player in this division.
Churchill Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes #8 Never Surprised He's definitely not quite as talented as a few of the others in here, but I think he might find himself on the engine today in a spot without much pace while getting a rider up who knows how to weaponize that. #11 Naval Power He ran well when chasing Master of the Seas last out at Keeneland, and he might be a touch more tactical today than he was in that one. In the mix. #6 I'm Very Busy Very tough to split the three, as I loved this guy's last and think he's probably going to have a huge year, but I worry about the race flow in a very tough spot. Race Summary Never Surprised has a little bit of price appeal in a really deep race, as I think the race shape is going to work in his favor. He looks a little cheap at first glance, but he was second in the Pegasus Turf a couple years back behind Colonel Liam and could rediscover some of that form if he gets left alone too long up top. Deep race where horses I think really highly of -- #7 Webslinger and #5 Program Trading -- don't even get a call.
Picks Notes #2 Lagynos He was just along too late at Keeneland last out, but a lot of the serious threats in here want to do their work closer to the front, so maybe he can settle and let things unfold before getting the last jump. #5 Legend of Time Wouldn't be a surprise to see him score here, as he has done little wrong overseas and races for a barn that sends a lot of live wires here. Guessing he's the one to beat. #6 Neat He's got pretty exciting turf form and overcame his own trouble to score against some of these last time out. Think he can win right back if he can behave a bit better today. Big fan, but think this is a new test for him. Consider #11 Cugino out of that same photo finish, too. Race Summary Lagynos woke up when getting back on the grass last out, and his form looks interesting enough here once you draw a line through the pair of main-track stakes tries at Oaklawn. Midrange price chance.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #2
Laurel Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #7 TRUE ACCOUNT (6-1) All-or-nothing type while trying the turf and running long for the first time. #2 HARD TRAVELER (6-5) One second and five thirds in last eight starts on lawn, gets class relief. #3 LONGWORTH (5-2) Steady turf numbers, needs some pace flow in seasonal debut. Race Summary TRUE ACCOUNT, eased in both starts in Maiden Special Weight company, shows a series of good 5F works since then and could surprise as a first-time gelding. His new connections are 5-for-26 the last 30 days. Play 7-2 and 7-3 exactas.
Laurel Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #1 PUDD’N N PIE (8-1) Must improve off maiden romp, likely to do so in this barn. #4 REE NEE’S SIX (8-5) Two wins and two seconds in last four starts at 6F, connections on 10-31 run. #6 REMEMBER ME (3-1) Stablemate of ‘Pie’ carried speed to win in same spot, picks up 7 pounds. Race Summary PUDD’N N PIE ran away from a rival who came back with a sub-par effort yesterday, but she looms a repeat threat on the class hike off the claim by Robb, who excels with 3-year-olds. The price is right for a win and place bet and 1-4 exacta box.
Picks Notes #10 BARON’S LEGACY (4-1) Won both long sprints, tries shorter one, must avoid wide trip. #6 MY MAMBA (15-1) Last won at this level, will be running late, can make gimmick wagers pay. #9 OUT KISSED (3-1) Sped off to clear lead and tired as the favorite, sheds 9 pounds. Race Summary Class droppers abound in the non-winners of 3 sprint for $12,500. BARON’S LEGACY broke his maiden for $25,000 two starts back, then bothered a rival at the break, disputed the pace and faded in a one-mile follow-up. He can sit a good stalking trip if he avoids another slow start from post 10. Play a 4-6-9-10 exacta box.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Delta Downs - Race 1 Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 6:15P QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
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Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PALMERO FANTASY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fig ure at the distance/surface. HEZA FAST TAC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at leas t +20. PALMERO FANTASY HEZA FAST TAC
Unknown Running Style: EC SUZUKI (6/1) [Jockey: Alvarez Arturo - Trainer: Sanchez Noe R].
Line
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Speed
FigureFIVE BAR Slow PALMERO FANTASY Average FAST TOO LUNCH Slow RH ZANCUDITO FLASH Fast GAME LITTLE WAGON Slow IMA CALENTE KID Fast MR E VISION Slow HEZA FAST TAC Slow TDZ KINGS RANSOM Slow
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE
Equibase Special - Race 2 Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 96 • Purse: $600,000 • Post: 3:40P AMERICAN TURF S. PRESENTED BY TWINSPIRES CD - R9 - GRADE 2 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
Horse
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Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * STAY HOT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or tu rf) is at least 50. LORD BULLINGDON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TWIRLING POINT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CAN GROUP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SET: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. STAY HOT LORD BULLINGDON TWIRLING POINT CAN GROUP SET
Unknown Running Style: LEGEND OF TIME (GB) (7/2) [Jockey: Dettori Lanfranco - Trainer: Appleby Charles].
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Class
Speed
FigureFORMIDABLE MAN Front-runner SET Front-runner TRIKARI Front-runner NEAT Stalker BLUE EYED GEORGE Stalker LAGYNOS Stalker CUGINO Stalker ABRUMAR Stalker TWIRLING POINT Alternator/Stalker STAY HOT Trailer LORD BULLINGDON Trailer ROCK'N A HALO Trailer DANCING GROOM Trailer CAN GROUP Trailer NOTED Trailer AGATE ROAD Trailer
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 70
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 1. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 2 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 7 AMANDA 4/1
# 5 ARIKARA 3/1
# 1 ICE BREAKER 5/1
I back AMANDA here. With a formidable 71 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Has a strong shot here if you like back class. Has to be considered against this group of horses in this race displaying formidable figs lately and an average speed fig of 69 under similar conditions. ARIKARA - Looks solid for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races recently. Overall, this trainer has been profitable at this distance/surface. ICE BREAKER - If you gander closely, this one has some longshot potential. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this group.
Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:59pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 97
Rating:
#7 OVERLY CRITICAL (ML=9/2)
#5 DON'T WAIT UP (ML=4/1)
#6 MR. ROUNDTREE (ML=5/1)
OVERLY CRITICAL - Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +63. This rider/trainer tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. This gelding should get a perfect trip in this spot. He looks like the only 'stalker' in this race. I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a solid effort within the last 30 days. DON'T WAIT UP - This horse has shown the power to win on different ovals. Making the move from Turfway Park for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. This gelding is in the top spot in (EPS) earnings per start. Take a long look at this thoroughbred in the paddock. MR. ROUNDTREE - I like a pony that manages to hit the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LOOKIN' SUPER (ML=3/1), #4 PERFECT DAY (ML=6/1), #2 MUTASALLEM (ML=8/1),
LOOKIN' SUPER - Last performed on April 20th at Aqueduct, finishing sixth. Unlikely to improve off of that try in today's event. PERFECT DAY - When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to record a better fig than last race out to battle in this dirt sprint. MUTASALLEM - Difficult to put any cash on this horse on the front end. Likes to end up on the board though. Tough to bet on any racer in a sprint race at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last couple months.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #7 OVERLY CRITICAL is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [5,6,7] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Stakes - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $1000000 Class Rating: 111
CHURCHILL DOWNS S. PRESENTED BY FORD CD - R10 - GRADE 1 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 10 GUN PILOT 10/1
# 11 HOIST THE GOLD 7/2
# 2 TEJANO TWIST 4/1
I've got to go with GUN PILOT and could score at a price in here. Has to be given a chance - I like the figs from the last race. This colt obviously likes the distance, going 3 - 5 in his races recently. One of the best win percentages between this jock and conditioner make this colt dangerous. HOIST THE GOLD - Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most respectable class figures of this group. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Stewart running at this distance are the best in this group of horses in this race. TEJANO TWIST - Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed rating - 106 - of his last race. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look.
Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:04pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 90 Honey Ryder S.
Rating:
#6 DE REGRESO (ML=6/1)
#11 DESTINY STAR (ML=5/1)
DE REGRESO - This entrant could be tough today, especially since Jara rode in the last race and now should be more familiar with this one. Recent Equibase speed figures show solid pattern of improvement. I think this filly is coming into top form. DESTINY STAR - Bravo rode this horse for the first time last race out and comes right back today. I expect a lot from this horse. Her speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this field. Finished ahead of today's favorite last time out at Gulfstream Park. Can do the same again today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 ZO LEE (ML=4/1), #8 STORMCAST (ML=6/1), #3 LADY CHA CHA (ML=8/1),
ZO LEE - This entrant just hasn't looked sharp of late. STORMCAST - Hasn't raced since August 19th, probably too long ago to do well this time around. LADY CHA CHA - When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to garner a better speed figure than in the last race to compete in this turf route.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DE REGRESO - This race horse has the top TrackMaster Power Rating and is a longshot to boot. What's not to like?
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #6 DE REGRESO is going to be the play if we are getting 9/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [6,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:6 with 11 with [1,4,7] Total Cost: $3 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: 6 with 11 with [1,4,7,8,10] with [1,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $20
Marco D Angelo
RACE 12 CHURCHILL DOWNS - KENTUCKY DERBY
EXACTA WAGERS
$2 Exacta Box 2,4,8,11,17,19 = $60
$5 Exacta 8 with 2,4,7,11,17,19 = $30
$5 Exacta 2,4,7,11,17,19 with 8 = $30
$5 Exacta 17 with 2,4,7,8,11,19 = $30
$5 Exacta 2,4,7,8,11,19 with 17 = $30
Total Exacta Wagers = $180
TRIFECTA WAGERS
.50 cent Trifecta - 2,8,11,17 with 2,4,8,11,17,19 with 2,4,6,7,8,11,17,18,19 = $70
.50 cent Trifecta - 2,4,6,7,8,11,17,18,19 with 2,8,11,17 with 2,4,8,11,17,19 = $70
.50 cent Trifecta - 2,8,17 with 2,4,6,7,8,11,17,18,19 with 2,8,11,17 = $31.50
.50 cent Trifecta - 17 with 2,4,8,11,19 with 2,4,6,7,8,11,12,17,18,19 = $16.00
TOTAL TRIFECTA WAGERS = $187.50
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