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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Churchill Downs - 5/3/24
May 1, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs Full Card Kentucky Oaks Day Program - “What You Need to Know”
Friday, May 3, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Thoughtful; 3-Penny Royal; 4-Sundance Feature.
Backups/savers: 7-Rock Harbor.
Forecast: We’re largely guessing here – there are no video workouts to critique or analyze – but we do know that trainer B. Cox has a terrific record with first time starters, so the Gun Runner filly Thoughtful is a “must use” and a logical top pick. There’s nothing fancy on the work tab but a sneaky quick gate work (:47 3/5b, April 7, 4th fastest of 75) and a half mile blowout :47 2/5 April 28, 6th fastest of 60) indicate at least some ability. Penny Royal likewise has done some good work in the a.m. and should be considered. The S. Asmussen-trained daughter of Curlin probably isn’t a quick type (surmised based on pedigree) but at this extended sprint distance she might come running late. Sundance Feature had a promising run over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in late March that produced a decent number and on paper looks best of the known element.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9-Sidamara; 10-Standoutsensation
Backups/savers: 7-Befriended; 11-Sedona.
Forecast: Sidamara was a pleasing second time starting, first time routing winner last month at Keeneland in a race that already has proven to be productive, and as a daughter of Arrogate should continue to improve with experience and maturity. Two nice breezes since raced add to a healthy pattern for the W. Mott-trained filly, so let’s try this Juddmonte homebred right back at or near her morning line at 4-1. Standoutsensation is faster on numbers than our top pick, considerably more experienced, and is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning. She was overmatched when fifth in the Ashland S.-G1 last month but certainly shouldn’t be in this spot.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 8-Arthur’s Ride
Backups/savers:5-Injunction; 11-Empty Tomb.
Forecast: Arthur’s Ride returned off a 13 month layoff in mid-March to crush a first level allowance field at Gulfstream Park with a triple digit (101) Beyer figure while looking very much like a future star. He’s produced a faster number every time he’s been led over, so he’s apparently on his way to bigger and better things. He’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line but we’d have to expect he’ll go considerably lower. We’ll use a couple of backups (listed above) just in case in bounces, but we’re not anticipating that he will based on his six week breather in between races and a healthy, steady, and easy work tab in the interim for W. Mott.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Elysian Field; 11-Freydis the Red (FR)
Backups/savers: 4-Myriskyaffair.
Forecast: Elysian Field may have been a tad rusty when runner-up in her comeback at Gulfstream Park in early March but with that race behind her the talented Canadian filly should be primed for a major effort in this nine furlong turf affair for second level allowance runners. Winless in four starts on grass (but second three times), the M. Casse trained daughter of Hard Spun won the Woodbine Oaks last year before being nosed out in the King’s Plate and then missing by a whisker in the Breeders’ S. (on turf), so there should be no doubting her class. Freydis the Red (FR) was no factor in her comeback at Fair Grounds in a tougher spot but, like our top pick, seems likely to step forward against this softer competition. She was a stakes winner and stakes placed during her sophomore campaign and has numbers that put her in the thick of things.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:43 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 4-Idomatic
Backups/savers: 5-Pretty Mischievous.
Forecast: Champion Idiomatic returns for trainer B. Cox (32% with layoffs) and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for this year’s edition of the La Troienne S.-G1. Winner of the BC Distaff-G1 when last seen in November and successful in eight of nine starts in 2023, the daughter of Curlin, by all rights, should be just as good if not better during her five year old season. At 6/5 on the morning line, she won’t offer any wagering value but for those seeking a short-priced rolling exotic single she’s a logical candidate.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:26 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket:2-Ova Charged
Backups/savers: 8-Ag Bullet.
Forecast: Ova Charged earned a 113 Beyer speed figure when destroying her outclassed foes in a state bred stakes on turf at Fair Grounds in late March – that’s a number that would win most Breeders’ Cup grass sprints – so if she can repeat that type of effort in this year’s edition of the Unbridled Sydney S.-G3 she’ll be home free right back. A winner of 12 of 15 career starts (with one second and no thirds), the daughter of Star Guitar is quick enough to make the lead but has won from well off the pace as well, so new ridder F. Geroux has the luxury of finding a spot and picking his strategy. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning like. Nice.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:09 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-First Mission; 6-Tumbarumba.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: First Mission regained his winning form with an easy five length romp in the Essex H.-G3 at Oaklawn Park last month and seems well placed for a repeat in this year’s edition of the Alysheba S.-G2. Nosed out in the Clark S.-G2 in his only prior run over the Churchill Downs main track, the B. Cox-trained colt catches a projected race flow that appears favorable and should be able to draft into a comfortable stalking position and have every chance from there. Tumbarumba is genuine, consistent, and solid on numbers. A. two-time winner over the local main track, the Oscar Performer gelding has a similar stalking style to our top pick and will be right there with his best effort.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:03 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: 6-Surprisingly; 5-Mouffy.
Backups/savers: 4-Heavenly Sunday.
Forecast: Surprisingly was a tad unlucky in her last pair, missing by a neck in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf and then going down by a half-length despite lacking a clear run in the Orchid S.-G2, both at Gulfstream Park. First or second in nine of 13 career starts, the daughter of Tapit switches to F. Prat and should be capable – with good racing luck - to produce a winning late kick. Mouffy fired her best shot when a strong second to the loose-on-the-lead Ruby Nell in the Buena Vista S.-G2 at Santa Anita in early March. She’s a tad shy in the speed figure department compared to our top pick but is thoroughly genuine and consistent and has the style to enjoy this nine furlong distance.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:04 ET Grade: A
Main ticket: 7-Denim and Pearls.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Denim and Pearls ran away and hid from her rivals on the way to a nine length romp in the Beaumont S.-G2 at Keeneland last month, doing so with complete authority and career top speed figure. Unbeaten in three one-turn outings, she gets ideal conditions once again in this seven furlong dash for sophomore fillies, especially considering that there is no breakaway speed in the field. The B. Cox-trained daughter of Into Mischief projects to enjoy a cozy stalking trip – just like last time – and then go on with it when given her cue. Have to think she’ll go considerably lower than her 3-1 morning line.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:51 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: 9-Hard to Justify
Backups/savers: 4-Buchu.
Forecast: Hard to Justify has looked terrific in the a.m. for C. Brown, so we’re expecting the undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 winner to pick up where she left off. The daughter of Justify had to overcome the 12-post in a 14-runner field at Santa Anita to bravely get the money with a career top number, and if she returns as well as she left – as we suspect she will – she’ll keep keep her perfect record spotless.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: 13-Just F Y I.
Backups/savers: 14-Leslie’s Rose.
Forecast: Just F Y I was given an easy run in the Ashland S.-G1 in her seasonable debut at Keeneland last month and today will get serious. According to her breezes since that race, the 2023 champion juvenile filly had stepped forward big time and appears ready to produce her best effort, similar to the one that netted her the BC Juvenile Fillies-G1 last fall that was accomplished despite the extreme outside 12-post. She’s produced a forward move in every race according to the numbers and we’re expecting to see a career top mark today. There’s excellent gambling value available at or near her morning line of 9/2.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:27 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: 11-Almost Rocket Gone; 7-Tweetster; 8-Twirling Good Time.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Almost Gone Rocket was 30 cents on the dollar April 5 in her debut at Oaklawn Park and ran like it, pressing the pace outside in hand before opening up at will without being asked to register a nearly 12 length score. It’s hard to gauge how good she is so at this time we’ll settle for “very.” Tweetster also was a sharp debut winner, her victory likewise achieved in Hot Springs despite a slow start from the rail. Numbers-wise, she’s close to our top pick, though she’s probably not as quick as ‘Rocket. Twirling Good Time was yet another smart debut winner – her score was accomplished over the local track last September – but in her first race back she was tried over a distance of ground facing allowance types and she simply wasn’t ready for that, pressing the pace and then dropping away at the head of the lane. She’ll be tighter today and is back around one corner, so the daughter of Twirling Candy could easily bounce back with a big effort.
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RACE 13: Post: 7:02 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: 8-Princess Madison
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Princess Madison took a career’s worth of dirt in her debut when forced to race in a pocket until mid-stretch before finally getting clear and rallying with interest to be second in a promising debut last month at Keeneland. The daughter of Speightstown has the style that seems perfect for this one turn mile, is the fastest filly in the field based on numbers and looks well-placed to graduate. We’re expecting to see her in the first flight throughout and then exert her superiority late as a win play and rolling exotic single.
Meet the Contenders: $1,500,000 Kentucky Oaks | Friday, May 3
April 29, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The 150th running of the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies for the lilies, highlight’s the Friday action at Churchill Downs on the eve of the Kentucky Derby. It’s a record purse of $1.5 million for the Oaks, which has a capacity field of 14 over 1-1/8 miles.
Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy a $25,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Friday’s Churchill card as well as up to a $10 money-back special if win bets finish second or third in select stakes races, including the Oaks.
Let’s meet the contenders for the Kentucky Oaks (Race 11):
#1-TAPIT JENALLIE: Veteran of Oaklawn’s 4-stakes series, running top-5 in each, including a third-place finish behind Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 2 Fantasy. Debuted a winner at Remington Park in September and added her only stakes win in Delta’s My Trust Cat in November. From the same female family as Take Charge Lady, runner-up in the ’02 Oaks. Daughter of Tapit, who sired 2014 Oaks winner Untapable.
#2-GIN GIN: Jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Brad Cox have won the Oaks twice, both in tandem (Monomoy Girl ’18, Shedaresthedevil ’20). Gin Gin won the Busanda in January and a Churchill maiden sprint last September, but more recently was third in both the Busher and Gazelle while wintering in New York. Historic Calumet Farm’s 6 Kentucky Oaks wins span 1943-’79 under previous ownership.
#3-WHERE’S MY RING: Santa Anita-based filly looks for her second win of the road trip, having won the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct in early April. She had been a 7-race maiden prior to that score, yet still was bet to 5-2 favoritism. Eighth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies over her home track vs. Just F Y I et al. Brings 67-year-old trainer Val Brinkerhoff to the big stage in search of his first Grade 1 victory from more than 1,700 starts since 2008.
#4-REGULATORY RISK: Lone victory in 5 starts was a wire-to-wire, 1-turn mile at Aqueduct in a December maiden race. Earned her ticket here with a runner-up in the Grade 3 Gazelle at 19-2 odds behind Where’s My Ring. Jockey Jose Ortiz won the 2019 Oaks aboard Serengeti Empress. Trainer Chad Brown seeks his first Kentucky Oaks victory.
#5-THORPEDO ANNA: Dominant winner of Oaklawn’s Fantasy Stakes by 4 lengths despite drawing post 10 of 10 in her only start of 2024. Won 2 of 3 as a juvenile, finishing second in Churchill’s Golden God as the odds-on favorite. Bargain $40,000 purchase has bagged nearly $600,000 to date. Trainer Kenny McPeek seeks his first Kentucky Oaks victory.
#6-LEMON MUFFIN: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a 5-time Oaks winner, most recently Secret Oath in 2022, and tied with the late Woody Stephens for most all-time. Lemon Muffin won Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Honeybee while still a 5-race maiden, but just didn’t show up when seventh in the Grade 2 Fantasy follow-up. Partners with 25-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen, who will also pilot Just Steel for Lukas in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
#7-FIONA’S MAGIC: Speedster failed to stretch out in trip from her 1-turn success when 8th in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time out. Previously wired the field in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at trainer Michael Yates’ Gulfstream base. Jockey Luis Saez piloted 2022 Oaks winner Secret Oath. Expect her to factor early in the pace.
#8-TARIFA: Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks winner has won 4 of 5 starts and 3 straight coming into the race and is the expected betting favorite. Pedigree loaded with stamina by Preakness winner Bernardini and with damsire Awesome Again a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner over the Churchill track. Owner Godolphin secured last year’s Oaks trophy with the Brendan Walsh-trained Pretty Mischievous. Trainer Brad Cox has won the Oaks twice (Monomoy Girl ’18, Shedaresthedevil ’20).
#9-EVERLAND: Upset winner of Turfway’s Bourbonette Oaks has yet to race on dirt through 7 starts (6 straight on synthetic since a turf debut). Claimed for $30,000 in December, she’ll try to replicate the late-running style and back history of 2022 Kentucky Derby shocker Rich Strike. Sire Arrogate was responsible for 2022 Oaks winner Secret Oath.
#10-INTO CHAMPAGNE: Sire Into Mischief was responsible for last year’s Oaks winner Pretty Mishievous. Two-time sprint winner in Kentucky and Florida exits a third-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her first start around 2 turns. Expected part of the early pace with jockey Julien Leparoux in search of his first Kentucky Oaks win.
#11-WAYS AND MEANS: Jockey Tyler Gaffalione seeks to become the first rider with back-to-back Oaks victories since legendary Eddie Arcaro won 3 straight from 1951-’53. Trainer Chad Brown seeks his first Kentucky Oaks victory. Gulfstream Park Oaks runner-up had a rough trip in her only start of 2024, coming up a length short at 1-2 odds. Also runner-up in last year’s Spinaway at Saratoga as an odds-on chalk for trainer Chad Brown. This jockey-trainer tandem pairs with Sierra Leone in Derby 150.
#12-POWER SQUEEZE: Hottest filly in this year’s Oaks, she brings a 4-race winning streak to Louisville. Tampa-based jockey Daniel Centeno picked up the mount in winning the Suncoast Stakes, kept it through their 11-1 upset in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and sticks Friday for trainer Jorge Delgado. Possesses late-running style and owns a trio of wins around 2 turns.
#13-JUST F Y I: Can become the first Champion 2-Year-Old Filly to win the Kentucky Oaks since Silverbulletday in 1998-‘99. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott looks to add the Oaks to his resume for the first time while playing catch-up on the calendar with this filly. Missed her seasonal debut at Gulfstream with a fever, but returned with a promising second in Keeneland’s Ashland. Best known for her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies victory at Santa Anita. Daughter of 2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown winner Justify.
#14-LESLIE’S ROSE: 9-1 upset winner of the Ashland at Keeneland, rebounding from an odds-on defeat in Gulfstream’s Davona Dale, her only loss in 4 starts. Trainer Todd Pletcher seeks a record-tying fifth Oaks win, joining D. Wayne Lukas and Woody Stephens. He won this race in ’04, ’07, ’13 and ’21, most recent with Malathaat. Sire Into Mischief was responsible for last year’s Oaks winner Pretty Mishievous.
#15 (also eligible)-OUR PRETTY WOMAN: Runner-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks could follow that same final prep and result as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. Steve Asmussen has a pair of Kentucky Oaks wins to his credit (’05 Summer, ’14 Untapable). Front-runner adds legitimate pace presence if she were to draw into the field.
#16 (also eligible)-CANDIED: Beaten favorite when fourth in the Ashland at Keeneland, her only start of 2024. That kept her on the outside looking in on the Kentucky Oaks qualifying points chase. Narrow third to Just F Y I in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and won the Alcibades prior. Trainer Todd Pletcher seeks a record-tying fifth Oaks win, joining D. Wayne Lukas and Woody Stephens. He won this race in ’04, ’07, ’13 and ’21, most recent with Malathaat.
Scott Shapiro: Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby Pick 3
May 1, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Kentucky Derby weekend is great for so many reasons. Not only do we get to see the best of the best throw it down for two days, but we get to gamble on it as well!
The wagering menu available on both Oaks and Derby Day is fantastic. Horseplayers have a plethora of options on both Friday and Saturday and then also have the opportunity of attacking two-day wagers that end with the 150th “Run for the Roses.” One of those is the two-day Pick 3, which has a 50-cent minimum and handled over $625K a year ago. The wager kicks off with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and then features the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Kentucky Oaks: Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 13 Just F Y I; 8 Tarifa
Backups: 11 Ways and Means; 5 Thorpedo Anna
Forecast: I wish I was more creative in what has turned out to be really fun edition of the “Run for the Lilies”, but the top tier appears to stand out quite a bit from the rest of the group in 2024. I had a difficult time separating #8 Tarifa and #13 Just F YI, but in the end, I went with the two-year-old champion. The Justify filly’s return race in the Ashland was a great starting point where she was caught wide much of the way, but still finished second. She appears to be training extremely well leading up to her second start off the bench and maybe will offer slightly better value than Tarifa. That said, Tarifa merits major respect as well. The Godolphin filly rattled off three consecutive wins this winter in New Orleans and retains the services of one of the best big race riders in the game, Flavien Prat. #11 Ways and Means and #5 Thorpedo Anna also make a ton of sense and have a lot of talent, but I have slight concerns about them handling more ground.
Turf Classic: Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 I’m Very Busy
Backups: 5 Program Trading
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown won this race in 2019 with Bricks and Mortar, in 2020 with Digital Age, and dead heated in 2021 when Domestic Spending threw it down big with Colonel Liam. Brown holds an extremely strong hand again in 2024 with #5 Program Trading and #6 I’m Very Busy. I prefer I’m Very Busy who has gotten very good as a four-year-old. The Cloud Computing colt just missed in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Turf at Gulfstream before crushing the group assembled at Fair Grounds in the Muniz Memorial. He once again lures Irad Ortiz, Jr and will be my key horse in this 9-furlong affair over the sod. #5 Program Trading has a big shot as well though. Being entered in this spot in his first try against older runners off a 6-month break tells you how highly regarded this Klaravich Stables ridgling is. He should get the jump on his stablemate in search of his fifth win in six lifetime tries.
Kentucky Derby: Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Just a Touch, 2 Sierra Leone
Backups: 17 Fierceness, 4 Catching Freedom, 6 Just Steel
Forecast: The Blue Grass Stakes has not proven to be a live prep for the Derby in some time, but that still feels random to me, at least over the last few years. I am not going to let that trend bother me in 2024. #8 Just a Touch is lightly raced and has only competed over a fast main track at two turns once in his career, but he has done little wrong and still has a ton of upside. Assuming a clean break, he should get a perfect pressing trip under Florent Geroux and should have no issue getting the added ground. I am hopeful he can turn the tables on Sierra Leone, who has been a model of consistency thus far for Chad Brown. The pricey Gun Runner colt has three wins in four tries, with the lone defeat coming by a nose in the mud to Dornoch in the Remsen (G2). It will take the ride of Tyler Gaffalione’s life from down inside to rally past perhaps the entire field, but this horse is classy and he can certainly finish. #17 Fierceness is the kind of horse I usually try to beat in the Derby. He has been awesome in his wins, but his inconsistency and inability to handle adversity are tough to overlook at a short price in a 20-horse field. I will only use him on tickets where I am keying in on prices in other horizontal legs. #4 Catching Freedom is the other Cox. He can definitely handle the distance, but under what scenario does he get the race shape he wants and out finishes Sierra Leone? #6 Just Steel is a big reach on top, but outside of his Rebel effort where he was caught wide, has been extremely consistent. He is a definite use underneath at a big price and perhaps worth including in horizontal spreads.
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/3/24
May 3, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Friday, May 3, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-R Heisman
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s the first 2-year-old race of the season. R Heisman has produced two recent bullet drills that surely will attract plenty of action on the tote. The L. Mendez-trained colt looks cranked and ready in this abbreviated dash for state-bred runners and almost certainly will go lower than his morning line of 5/2. On paper, he’s a logical short price rolling exotic single in a race that most likely will offer little wagering value.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 6-Bit’s Tiger Magic
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bit’s Tiger Magic was worn down late at 3/5 in her debut in mid-March by a subsequent stakes winner but then returned at 6/5 to make amends last month as expected by seven widening lengths over this course and distance while under wraps through the lane. The daughter of Smiling Tiger returns on the one level raise in a race that she projects to dominate right back in gate-to-wire fashion, so at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’s another logical rolling exotic single at a potentially odds-on price.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Max’s Maxine.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Max’s Maxine stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree and steady, grinding running style to enjoy this mile trip. She’s not particularly fast on numbers but is good enough against this modest maiden $20,000 group of fillies and mares and based on the race she exits – she was well clear of the third runner, who was a next out winner – the R. Francis-trained sophomore appears ready to graduate. Her morning line of 3-1 isn’t bad if you can get it.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Enjoy It Strait 7-Giovinazzo; 3-Don’t Swear Dave
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast:. Enjoy It Strait, much improved this year with back-to-back wins following a long layoff for trainer M. Glatt, earned a career top figure in his most recent score over this course and distance in a state-bred first level allowance affair in mid-March and appears properly spotted once again in this $40,000 turf miler for older horses. With his two “win” riders A. Fresu and F. Prat out of town in Kentucky, one of the barn’s “go-to” jockeys, K. Frey, picks up the mount. From a pace projection standpoint, the son of Southern Image should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and have dead aim at the head of the lane. Don’t Swear Dave is a three-time winner over the local lawn and returns to turf and his winning and purchase level today in his second start off a claim for S. Knapp. The son of Connect lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late and with some help up front should be heard from close home. Giovinazzo switches to top rider J. Hernandez and fits solidly on numbers. He’s been away almost seven weeks but shows a solid and healthy work tab and should be capable of firing a big shot off the bench.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Odies Memory Lane; 6-Knightwithlouis
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s a split of the first race, a juvenile dash for Cal-breds. Odies Memorial Lane and Knightwithlouis have been workmates in the morning for trainer D. O’Neill and they’re hard to separate. Both have some ability, and in a field which looks rather soft, we’re inclined to use both in our rolling exotics without picking a side. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them finish one-two in whichever order.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:56 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Really Thirsty; 5-Hayley Amber.
Backups/savers: 1-Truly Magical; 2-Danzig Til Dawn,.
Forecast: After displaying good ability in her debut at Gulfstream Park when finishing a strong third in a grass sprint in January, Really Thirty arrived locally a month later and was bet down to favoritism at 2-1 in a state-bred maiden event on dirt. The main track experiment didn’t work – she displayed speed but steadily faded – so the daughter of Stay Thirty returns to grass, retains top rider J. Hernandez, and should be given a chance to make amends. Her work pattern isn’t flashy but its healthy and steady, so we’ll put her on top though at 9/5 on the morning line she’ll not offer a whole lot of value. Hayley Amber has hit the board in all three starts, though on pure numbers she doesn’t really match up without top pick. If nothing else, she’s a trier.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Spiritual Advisor; 5-Nauvoo.
Backups/savers: -Big Bet Jafinsafa.
Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this main track miler for state-bred first level allowance horses, so best advice is to tread lightly. Spiritual Advisor seems as good as any. Fourth in a similar affair last month with a less than ideal trip, the J. Bonde-trained gelding is comfortably drawn outside and should fold over into an easy pace-stalking trip and then have every chance. Nauvoo won a pair of back-to-back races by a combined 22 lengths earlier this meeting but then went stale after being claimed by C. DeAlba. If he can shake loose on the lead today, he might get brave.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:55 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: 3-Stop Digging
Backups/savers 6-Smiling Forever; 4-Play My Speed.
Forecast: Stop Digging is no great shakes but doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this turf sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. After two solid runner-up performances, one last summer and the other last month, the daughter of Mrazek should be ready to earn her diploma. The barn is 0-for-25 this year – not exactly a sign of confidence – but with blinkers being added and two easy breezes since raced to tick her over there should be no excuses.
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
May 3, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
It's closing night at Cal Expo and there will be mandatory payouts in all pools. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10 (9:00 PM PST)
6-JP Jetty (8/5)-Short price for a horse that doesn't do well taking air but has enough gate speed to get the top or the 2-hole. Does have some tactical speed that could make a winning difference.
8-Trey Rockette (8-1)-Loses Luke Plano to the one above but if anyone is going to catch the speed this is my choice. Brett Erickson needs to be close enough to the lead at the top of the lane and an honest pace. Both could happen at a price.
Race 11 (9:20 PM PST)
2-Regil Irish (3-1)-This is the 3rd start off the bench, gets post relief and a positive driver change in Plano. It could be "go" time on the final day of the meet.
9-The Last Waltz (6-1)-The Cutting-Goulet combo has posted 33% winners. The 4-year-old will be rolling rate and could be a smooth trip away from a picture. The post makes the price and it's best to respect.
Race 12 (9:40 PM PST)
2-Helen's Girl (4-1)-This is Plano's choice over #3. The same pilot won with the Alvarez trainee on 4-21 and should fit well with this group.
4-Eyes Don't Lie (7/2)-Team Stalbaum entry does try hard and is a player with a good steer. Has won versus this kind and should be in striking range to roll by down the lane.
6-Velocity McSweets (8/5)-Veteran mare is a leap of faith at a short price. Showed some gate speed in last and faded. Will look for a different trip and may finally seal the deal.
Race 13 (10:00 PM PST)
1-Cut A Rug (5/2)-This was James Kennedy choice over #5 and figures to be in the hunt. Faded after trying to wire the field last time. Could be better not trying to lead from gate to wire and that trip could happen tonight.
4-Rockinscience (3-1)-The last time the team Cutting entry was in this cheap it was picture time. Hasn't taken a picture since 3-1 and could connect again at this level.
$1.00 Pick 4
6,8/2,9/2,4,6/1,4
Total Bet=$24
Laurel Park Late Pick 4 Friday, May 3
May 3, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK LATE PICK 4
Friday, May 3, 2024
The Run For the Roses is Saturday, but if you want to make a run at building your bankroll, consider playing the Laurel Park Late Pick 4 on Friday, May 3. Last Fridays Pick 4 paid $1,222 for a 50-cent wager with no winning favorites, followed by a Saturday blockbuster payout of $10,380.
LRL 7th race (3:31 p.m. EST) -- COACH CALEY debuts for the high percentage Brittany Russell barn off a 1:02 workout from the gate. She is by multiple Group 1 winner Mastercraftsman (7-12, $1.49 million), whose offspring are 147/28-18-19 in turf routes. QUEEN OF THE DANCE rallied to finish second in 4 of her last 5 starts at shorter distances and will try to enhance trainer Michael Stidham’s 5-for-17 streak with the synthetic track-to-turf angle. DARK POOL dueled and held third in a comeback turf-to-dirt marathon and should benefit from that race on the switch back to the lawn. She broke awkwardly in a MSW route at Aqueduct, awaited room while saving ground on the far turn and finished okay behind the two favorites, who both came back to win with upper-80 Beyer speed figures.
LRL 8th race (4:02 p.m. EST) -- KILO ROAD shook a duel with the 5-to-2 second favorite but couldn’t hold off a pair of rallying first-time starters in MSW company. He finished 3 lengths ahead of GETTOTHSTORYIMDONE, who rallied mildly while 4-wide and could benefit from the added ground. SPIRIT AND TRUTH turned heads with a :47-1/5 bullet work at Laurel Park last Sunday for trainer Phillip Capuano, who is 6-18 with first-time starters and 14-51 with maiden claimers.
LRL 9th race (4:33 p.m. EST) -- A NEW PEACE figures tough if she duplicates her last turf sprint in January at Santa Anita. She overcame major trouble, got beat a nose by odds-on favorite Teen Drama, -- who came back to repeat for $32,000 -- and finished ahead of three other next-out winners. If she doesn’t win, it’s anybody’s race, so with room to spare on the Pick 4 ticket, I’ll go three deep. OUR STRONG VOWS, a two-time photo finish winner at 5-1/2F on the Laurel Park lawn, rallied for minor awards twice when last seen in the fall. Those efforts by the $114k turf earner are better than they appear, considering Paper Mansion won her next five races in wire-to-wire fashion and Shasta Star was in the midst of a 7-for-9 streak on turf. SISTER SUPREAM ran a good one off the Ness claim, sprinting clear at 6F on the main track before the co-favorite caught her late. She’s coupled with also-eligible SIX O’CLOCK SARAH (7-21, $206K), forming a solid 1-2 punch at 8-1 if they both run.
LRL 10th race (5:05 p.m. EST) -- SELASSIE’s company lines stand out in this maiden claiming route. He was in good stalking position in his last two starts, but gave way to a fast pace, next-out Maiden Special Weight winner Curlin’s Kitten and recent $16,000/nw2 runner-up This Dude A Breeze two back. Then he tired against low-70 Beyer types Flat Top Box and One Bite. Expect a contending effort at a tempting price in his first start on conventional dirt. CORONATION TIME gets in light and gets plenty of pace to run at in his longest race to date. His ‘head was turning when the gate sprung’ last out and he lacked kick while 5-wide at one mile. CAVENDISH is the one to beat on the class drop after he bid on the turn to vie for command before fading in a higher-tagged route on a sloppy track.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
LRL 7th Race: 5, 6, 8
LRL 8th Race: 3, 4, 6
LRL 9th Race: 1, 2, 9
LRL 10th Race: 4, 5, 8
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $40.50
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Churchill Downs - Race #6
Churchill Downs - Race #10
Picks Notes #2 Ova Charged Thrilled to see her take this shot after running her turf sprint record to a perfect 3-for-3, and all of those wins were blowouts: 5, 7, and 12 lengths-- she'll get her biggest test today, but she absolutely skips over the surface and might end up being a legitimately special turf sprinter. #3 Stone Silent She looks for her fourth in a row after landing a trio of Gulfstream stakes, and she should be in a perfect spot to keep close tabs on the top choice early on. In the mix. #8 Ag Bullet Her turf sprint form has been sharp, and her pressing pace should leave her in an attacking spot turning for home. Capable. Race Summary Ova Charged has always been good, but she has looked like a different horse in her three turf starts and should be right in the mix early on today. Let's see....but I'm expecting a big one.
Churchill Downs - Race #13
Picks Notes #6 Pounce She was a shade less than 3/1 against 11 others at Keeneland last out when tracking and fading to last, and she'll come back at a more appealing price today with some obvious bounce-back potential. #9 Hard to Justify Breeders' Cup winner is the clear one to beat, especially if she has moved forward at all since her juvenile season. Price might feel short if she hasn't. #1 Pink Polkadots I worry that there is some other pace to keep her honest, but she looked good in her two turf starts to open the career and might be able to share with these at a price after the dull synthetic run last out. Race Summary Lots of fun ones in here, including the capable #4 Buchu, but Pounce has the right midrange price appeal for me. Her last was not indicative of what she's capable of, and the tote board will be a lot more inviting this time around.
Picks Notes #7 Sustancia She chased and stuck around well enough in the debut when just a length short at Turfway, and she's not meeting a ton of serious one-turn pace and may be able to control the tempo while stretching out today. #8 Princess Madison She might find herself in a really good first-over kind of spot today, and she has an obvious claim on this one if she can get a cleaner go this time around. #6 Fancy She's back off the break with a couple decent efforts on the page, including one at this trip here last year. Wonder if she might be live. Race Summary Sustancia gets another quarter mile to work with today after a pretty gritty chasing effort in the debut, and I could be interested at something a bit shorter than the 10/1 ML offering.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #1
Laurel Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #7 BOLD HONOR (9-2) Middle move at 7F last out, wide rally at 6F in race prior, alert start the key. #4 BOX AND BEN (8-1) Steady check-getter at higher levels is $100k earner but 0-for-7 at this distance. #1 XCELLENT MEN (7-5) Returns to scene of maiden-breaking romp, runs for cheapest tag yet. Race Summary BOLD HONOR circled the field 6-wide after a sluggish start and finished second in a short sprint two starts back. He finished ahead of Moncrief, who stepped up to the $20,000 level and wired the field, and Katie’s Notion, who came back to romp at 5-1/2F at Parx. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #3 CHAMPAGNE DANCE (6-1) Can make good use of her speed in this spot, can rate if necessary. #7 MIA’S ANGEL (7-5) Disputed the pace for this far at one mile, drops and cuts back to sprint. #6 NEVER MORE VALOR (15-1) Steady work tab for debut, gets Lasix, price attached. Race Summary CHAMPAGNE DANCE pressed the class-dropping, 4-to-5 favorite but couldn’t keep pace in her second start at this level. She rallied for second in the race prior and can be back on the engine in this spot at a tempting price. Bet to win and place and play a 3/6,7/ALL trifecta.
Picks Notes #2 CONFLUENCE LASSIE (9-2) True colors showing since addition of blinkers at $12,500 level. #3 PUT A ROCK ON IT (6-1) Exits pair of longer races that produced winners, drops below claim level. #8 BY THE NUMBERS (7-5) Bid 3-wide on turn but flattened out in higher-tagged mile. Race Summary CONFLUENCE LASSIE dueled through soft fractions and held second in the slop two starts back at 6F, but she validated that effort with another runner-up effort when tracking a faster pace behind the 4-to-5 winner. The sixth-place finisher also came back to win. Bet to win and place.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Equibase Special - Race 2 Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 117 • Purse: $1,000,000 • Post: 5:27P OLD FORESTER BOURBON TURF CLASSIC S. CD - R11 - GRADE 1 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. PROGRAM TRADING (GB) is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * I'M VERY BUSY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rat ing. CELLIST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. WEBSLINGER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. INTEGRATION: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is a t least 50. NAVAL POWER (GB): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. I'M VERY BUSY CELLIST WEBSLINGER INTEGRATION NAVAL POWER (GB)
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCELLIST Front-runner NEVER SURPRISED Front-runner PROGRAM TRADING (GB) Stalker I'M VERY BUSY Trailer NEVER EXPLAIN Trailer WEBSLINGER Trailer INTEGRATION Trailer SIEGE OF BOSTON Trailer NAVAL POWER (GB) Trailer ANGLOPHILE Trailer FAR BRIDGE Trailer
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE
Equibase Special - Race 2 Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3-5 • CR: 0 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 3:56P SA - R6 - (RAIL AT 30 FEET). FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST STARTS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. REALLY THIRSTY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HAYLEY AMBER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. REALLY THIRSTY: Horse rank s in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. O MANDY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MOOREA TIME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HAYLEY AMBER REALLY THIRSTY O MANDY MOOREA TIME
Unknown Running Style: TRULY MAGICAL (5/1) [Jockey: Ayuso Armando - Trainer: Koriner Brian J], DANZIG TIL DAWN (8/1) [Jockey: Pereira Tiago Josue - Trainer: McCarthy Michael W], HOLLYWOOD PENNY (12/1) [Jockey: Laprida Jeremy - Trainer: Papaprodromou
Line
Class
Speed
FigureREALLY THIRSTY Front-runner HAYLEY AMBER Front-runner O MANDY Front-runner MOOREA TIME Stalker
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $54000 Class Rating: 88
FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 6 HOW ABOUT PAVEL 2/1
# 3 KEEP DANCIN NICK 6/1
# 5 A VOTRE SANTE 8/1
HOW ABOUT PAVEL gets the edge as the wager in here. The foals of this sire have historically shown strong dividends. Sire figures (15 percent win percentage) give this racer a formidable shot. KEEP DANCIN NICK - Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved promptly to the lead recently. As of late Miyadi has provided investors with a decent winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 66
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 5 FABULOUS AND FANCY 2/1
# 4 JESS DASH SUSIE 6/1
# 7 THREE XL 9/2
FABULOUS AND FANCY is my choice. Chavira has this filly racing well and is a very good choice based on the very good Equibase Speed Figures garnered in short races recently. Garnered a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. May best this group here, showing very good figures of late. JESS DASH SUSIE - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (61 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Has been running well lately and ought to be up on the lead early on. THREE XL - Could best this group of animals based on the speed figure - 58 - of her last outing.
Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:32pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 75
Rating:
#8 AVALANCHE IS COMIN (ML=5/2)
#3 CAST YOUR NET (ML=5/1)
AVALANCHE IS COMIN - Past Performances show this horse with three improving Equibase speed figs. Mendez should be on a live one in today's race. CAST YOUR NET - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice race last time out within the last thirty days. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (38-48-58) make this animal a solid contender.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LITTLE BABY GIRL (ML=9/5), #5 JOLENES ECLIPTICAL (ML=7/2),
LITTLE BABY GIRL - There may be a set back this time out, after the big effort last out. I don't think this steed likes running on the inside, certainly not out of the one hole. JOLENES ECLIPTICAL - This filly earned a fig in her last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #8 AVALANCHE IS COMIN is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Churchill Downs - Race #8 - Post: 3:03pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $400,000 Class Rating: 103 Modesty S. Presented by Derby City Gaming & Hotel (Grade 3)
Rating:
#6 SURPRISINGLY (ML=5/1)
#8 BE YOUR BEST (IRE) (ML=10/1)
#9 PAPILIO (IRE) (ML=10/1)
#1 FAST AS FLIGHT (ML=10/1)
#7 JOIN THE DANCE (ML=20/1)
SURPRISINGLY - This one likes to win at multiple tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. When a thoroughbred finishes in the money as often as this mare does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. You have to really like that recent race speed fig, 103, which is the top last race speed rating of this bunch. BE YOUR BEST (IRE) - The jock/handler duo of Ortiz and De Paz has a strong ROI together. Ran a less than stellar race at Santa Anita last race out. Racing under normal track conditions puts this filly at the top of my contenders list. Moves back to a distance at which she ran a speed figure good enough to make her a contender today. Just missed hitting the board on March 3rd at Santa Anita. With pretty decent morning odds in today's race, she has my interest. PAPILIO (IRE) - This rider/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +32. Casse gets a break on this horse carrying 5 pounds less than last out. This could make a difference today. FAST AS FLIGHT - This animal has shown the ability to win on different ovals. Making the move from Gulfstream Park for today's event, I have to believe she's ready to run. JOIN THE DANCE - Velasquez is back for another race today after racing atop this equine for the 1st time on March 23rd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. You'll be generating profits left and right by turning your bankroll onto this rider/handler combination. That recent bullet 46.6 work shows that this mare is ready for a top race today. This mare recorded a nice fig of 103 in her last clash. That speed rating should be lofty enough to prove victorious in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HEAVENLY SUNDAY (ML=3/1), #10 SPARKLE BLUE (ML=6/1), #2 ASPEN GROVE (IRE) (ML=6/1),
HEAVENLY SUNDAY - I usually try to beat these types of probable favorites off the long layoff. SPARKLE BLUE - Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (100/87/82) of speed ratings. ASPEN GROVE (IRE) - Finished second in her most recent race with a disappointing speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #6 SURPRISINGLY on the nose if you can get odds of 6/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [6,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [6,8] with [6,8,9] with [1,6,7,8,9] with [1,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:[6,8,9] with [1,6,7,8,9] with [1,6,7,8,9] with [1,6,7,8,9] with [1,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $72
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