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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 7, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card, and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
1-Cuzberttoldmeso (6/5)-Comes off a gate to wire win for the Rhoades-Merriman connection and comes right back versus the same kind. Draws the rail in the 2nd start off a claim and there is no reason to overthink this one.
3-Marriageontherocks (3-1)-Drops and makes the 2nd start on Lasix and that is often an angle to watch. Does have enough gate speed to land on the point or in the 2-hole and either could work for a win.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
2-Kawabunga (3-1)-Billy Davis Jr should work a cozy trip with this post draw. Has enough gate speed to get on the point and control the mile. Could be a soft quarter away from a picture.
3-Some Happy Pacer (12-1)-Taking a swing for a price and thinking the Miller trainee wakes up tonight with an inside post draw. Luke Ebersole is back for his 2nd consecutive drive and will look for an aggressive steer.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
4-Disgruntled Carl (5/2)-Winner of 4 straight has made it looks easy and destroyed the last 2 fields. This is only the 2nd morning line choice and looks like a must use as connections try to snag a larger purse.
6-Mounds For All (4-1)-The McGinnis pupil should have enough speed to get the job done. The question is the trip because gate speed isn't really its thing. AMac could have this one geared up before the last turn and hopefully the week off will help the cause.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
1-Virgins Beach Boy (2-1)-Benefitted from a typical sharp steer from Aaron Merriman. But the effort to pick up the win shouldn't be discounted. Worked hard off the gate, landed behind the 6/5 choice who collapsed down the lane and then stood tall to the wire. It appears a double up opportunity is well within reach and comes right back in sequence this time.
3-One Crazy Guy (5-1)-Will toss the last race from post 9 and hope the morning line price holds up. Davis Jr has gate speed to use, and the 4-year-old could land on the point or in the pocket behind #1. Either trip makes the Kreiser trainee an upset possibility.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
1,3/2,3/4,6/1,3
Total Bet=$16
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Thistledown - Race #6
Thistledown - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 Drilin' For Gems No real confidence here in a race with six droppers all in terrible form, but this guy gets in for a tag for the first time and might have enough pace to get in the mix early from the fence. #3 Go Tothe Principal He raced evenly when no threat at Mahoning last month when getting in for a tag for the first time, and something like that probably stacks up well enough in a bad spot. #4 My Hombre He has had a lot of chances already, but he wasn't embarrassed for a similar tag a couple months back, and he at least owns a couple decent running lines -- something most of these can't claim. Race Summary Not much finishing form on paper, so this one could wind up in the hands of whichever runner can command this group into the lane. Drilin' For Gems may carry his small bit of pace better with these.
Thistledown - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Poker Partner The move back around one turn should work in his favor after fading late at a mile last out, and he's got some pace to be right up on the splits in a race without a ton of committed early burn. #3 Buehler's Day Off Tactical speed always shows up, and he should be able to pick his spot while in touch with the pace early on. One of the ones. #1 Rainbow's Pride He was no threat for the win at 3/5 last out, but his overall form probably makes him the one to beat in here while capable of something a little bit better than he showed in that one. Race Summary Poker Partner should be in the frame from the start, and I'm hoping he's a mildly playable price as maybe the second choice in this group.
Picks Notes #5 Hot Princess She never got in the mix last time out, but she can flash better pace than that to find a more forward trip this afternoon. Midrange price chance. #4 Kat Trax She's a pretty honest type with some positional pace, and she has been competitive with some of these in the races on her page. Enough to like. #6 Mobil Memory Not much to write home about from the last one, but she has some back form that might make her interesting in a spot that might set her up for a great spying trip. Race Summary Hot Princess never got involved last time out, but her better stuff has typically come when she gets in the game early, so I'm hoping a sharper start will lead to a better outcome today.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Finger Lakes - Race #1
Finger Lakes - Race #5
Picks Notes #5 SCHERZER (2-1) Chased odds-on winner, can make good use of her speed in this spot. #4 MIAMI TWOFER (5-2) Has best numbers, gets class relief for second start as a 3-year-old. #3 MAJESTIC LAURA ANN (4-1) Vet scratch at Aqueduct enters 18-percent barn with maiden claimers. Race Summary SCHERZER stalked the 2-to-5 favorite while 4-wide on the turn before fading in her seasonal debut. She could be the target on the drop from Maiden Special Weight company. Bet to win and place.
Finger Lakes - Race #6
Picks Notes #1 BUSTIN PIETRE (5-1) Returns home in ideal conditions for barn that got a lot of run out of him. #7 DEVIL OR ANGEL (5-2) Idle since Nov. 15 claim when second to Miami Chrome (40/7-6-8, $119k). #6 SMOKIN ALONE (6-1) Makes 51st start at track, fires some big shots every now and then. Race Summary BUSTIN PIETRE ran away with two easy victories for this barn in the fall to improve to 10/3-2-1 at the track to where he returns today. He fits the conditions well as he looks to build on a six-figure bankroll. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #2 KEIGS (4-1) Takes the plunge for new barn, recent work encouraging, all or nothing. #4 KING OF FRANCE (2-1) Barn wins at high rate with class-dropping maidens. #3 DRINKING SOLO (5-2) Chased slow pace and 4-to-5 winner, passed fading rivals in longer sprint. Race Summary KEIGS breezed 4 furlongs in :48-2/5 in his final prep off the Ferraro acquisition. He flashed speed but found blinkers and Lasix of little help in Maiden Special Weight company at Laurel Park. He will have no excuse at the bottom level. Play a 2-ALL exacta.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE
Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 1 Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 71 • Purse: $38,500 • Post: 2:10P FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TREMOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SPECIALTY ACT: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 3 0 days. THEO'S PROMISE: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TREMOR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at t he distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MAGIC IN MOTION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SPECIALTY ACT THEO'S PROMISE TREMOR MAGIC IN MOTION
Line
Class
Speed
FigureTREMOR Front-runner MAGIC IN MOTION Alternator/Stalker RAZED Alternator/Stalker SPECIALTY ACT Alternator/Stalker THEO'S PROMISE Trailer C S EXPRESS Trailer MR BOBBY BOUCHER Alternator/Trailer
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE
Parx Racing - Race 8 Optional Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 3:53P (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SOCIAL LADY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BLACK ICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the l ast 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GIRLFROMOUTERSPACE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SOCIAL LADY BLACK ICE GIRLFROMOUTERSPACE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureTELEPHONE LINE Stalker BLACK ICE Alternator/Stalker GIRLFROMOUTERSPACE Alternator/Stalker SOCIAL LADY Trailer MISS CHAMITA Trailer CLOUT CHASER Alternator/Non-contender MAGNIFICENT PEARL Alternator/Non-contender
FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:48pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 61
Rating:
#6 WILDWOOD TRIPLE (ML=7/2)
WILDWOOD TRIPLE - Last out, this one was in a race at Hawthorne in a race with an Equibase class figure of 77. Dropping considerably in class rating this time puts her in a solid position today. This affair sets up for this filly. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, she'll be in perfect striking position. Another way to evaluate class is earnings per race. This entrant has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BAR MONEY (ML=3/1), #9 FERGIE ATTACK (ML=4/1), #5 TENSE (ML=9/2),
BAR MONEY - This chalk horse hasn't visited the track in awhile. No drills since last race. The Brain always warns me to keep my distance from horses in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in short distance events recently. FERGIE ATTACK - This horse hasn't been close to the winner at the finish recently. Notched a mediocre speed fig last race out in a $25,000 Claiming race on April 28th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. TENSE - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit of late. This racer likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Leave out of the top spot.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #6 WILDWOOD TRIPLE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: 6 with [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - SO - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 94
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2023-24 OR CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 5 HACKER 7/5
# 4 BOX SEAT 2/1
# 1 LAPIS LAZULI 3/1
HACKER is the most respectable wager in this race. Always seems to be close up at the finish. Recent figs for the jockey - 16 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses in this race. Triana has one of the most favorable jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to gamblers +3 percent. BOX SEAT - Has been travelling well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Is a definite contender - given the 89 speed figure from his most recent race. LAPIS LAZULI - Looks decent for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races lately. This racer has a excellent win percentage in dirt sprints.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 62
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MAY 7, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 7 INVESTMENT GRADE 12/1
# 4 DETERMINED LOVE 5/1
# 1 BETTY RUBBLE 8/1
INVESTMENT GRADE is my selection and could score at a price in here. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figs (64 average) at today's distance and surface lately. DETERMINED LOVE - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class numbers of this group of animals. When a trainer brings any racer back this soon it is a positive sign. BETTY RUBBLE - Earned a respectable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. Likely to see a much improved performance with the drop.
Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,400 Class Rating: 61
Rating:
#2 LITTLE RONS ROCKET (ML=3/1)
LITTLE RONS ROCKET - Last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour this animal finished ahead of today's M/L choice. Potential play if the public follows the morning line. Radosevich drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to believe this horse should be one of the top contenders at this level. Last raced at Mahoning Valley Race Cour carrying 5 pounds more. The lower impost in this event should serve him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 STARS N SPACE (ML=8/5), #3 ANIMO ROBERTO (ML=2/1), #4 MATTHEW'S PATRIOT (ML=5/1),
STARS N SPACE - Not probable for this thoroughbred to do much running with no recent success in a sprint race. This chalk horse hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning drills since last race. Unlikely that the speed figure he garnered on April 4th will hold up in this event. ANIMO ROBERTO - Don't think this less than sharp equine has what it takes to win in today's event. MATTHEW'S PATRIOT - Can't play this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance clash of late.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #2 LITTLE RONS ROCKET is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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