8-30-08

[Mr. IWS]

Special K Sports

20 Star - Northern Illinios +8

20 Star - Florida Atlantic +24

20 Star - Arkansas State +19.5

[Mr. IWS]

BOB BALFE

College Football
Oklahoma State/Washington State Under 66
Oklahoma State has a good QB in Zac Robinson, but he will be without his best RB and WR from a year ago. Washington State starts this season with a new coach and a QB with minimal experience. The Huskies were horrible on defense last year, but have a solid LB core this season and should be much improved. This game is at a neutral site in Seattle. 66 points will be a lot to score in an opening game. Take the Under.

"Diamond in the ruff play"
Louisiana Tech +8 over Mississippi State
This is a huge game for Tech as it is a primetime ESPN Game hosting a SEC team for this first time. This team has a bigtime ability QB Taylor Bennett and coach Derek Dooley is determined to put this school on the map. Mississippi State has some injuries at O-Line and will be without first-team All-SEC free safety Derek Pegues. The State offense has never been that good so if Bennett can get on a roll this team has a chance at winning outright. This line opened at 9.5 and now is dropping even with the public betting heavy on Miss State. Take Tech with an option small play on the Moneyline.

Alabama +4.5 over Clemson
Alabama lost all of their games last year by a touchdown or less. Playing in close games builds a strong team and they will be more experienced this year. Clemson has two great RB's which some think will be the top duo in the nation. I have to disagree with that due to the fact last year their numbers decreased in productivity from 2006 and this season they will have a brand new offensive line. Alabama is going to put up points with a offense from last year still in tact and a good QB. Clemson has lost their top four linebackers from last year which should allow Bama to air it out on run the ball with ease. Take Alabama.

Memphis/Mississippi Over 54
Memphis should return a good squad this year with 16 returning starters. The Tigers would love nothing more than too beat Ole Miss as there are many seniors who are 0-3 against them in their careers. Memphis runs a spread offense which is pretty good and has a lot of work to do on defense as last year they were pretty bad. Ole Miss is excited about their new head coach Houston Nutt and excited about Texas transfer Jevan Snead at quarterback. This offense has experience and will play well this year. Mississippi has a few injuries on the D-Line which should allow Memphis to run the ball well. Both teams should move the ball at will today on offense. Look for this game to go Over the total.

Arizona/Idaho Over 62
Arizona returns ten offensive starters from a pass happy offense which played great last year. Their first test of the year is Idaho whom may be the worst defense I have ever seen. When Idaho is on offense they will have the luxury of returning all eleven starters against a AZ team with only three starters back and a brand new offensive line. Arizona is going to score at will, but I do think Idaho puts up a good number of points sending this way over the total. Take the Over.

Major League Baseball
Phillies +130 over Cubs
Myers/Lilly

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law
3% Oregon/washington Under 63

2% Idaho +27
2% Louisiana Tech +7.5
2% Memphis +7.5
2% Texas -23.5

1% Ul-lafayette +10.5
1% Usc/virginia Under 43

[timbob]

LARRY COOK

3* on Wisconsin Badgers -26.5

The Wisconsin Badgers return 17 starters this season and are picked to finish second in the Big Ten conference because of it. Akron?s entire defensive backfield will have a new look, considering they lost four of five starters in the secondary from their 3-3-5 scheme last year. Reggie Corner and John Mackey combined for 10 interceptions last year, and both are gone from the Akron secondary this season. That means Wisconsin will be able to move the ball through the air whenever they decide to. Senior Allan Evridge, a Kansas State transfer, is expected to be taking the snaps under center. Evridge will be working behind an offensive line that returns four starters. These four horses up front have combined to make 85 starts between them. P.J. Hill is back at running back after rushing for 2,805 yards and 29 touchdowns in his first two seasons as the Badgers? starter in the backfield. Now that?s a solid foundation to work with. Wisconsin is 53-34 ATS in their last 87 Saturday home games. The Badgers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games overall. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Meanwhile, Akron is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests. Bet Wisconsin at home.

[timbob]

ATS Locks

7 units Wyoming -12.5
7 units Idaho +27
2 unit parlay on above
5 units TCU -6.5
5 units UAB +13
4 units LaTech +8

[timbob]

Rest of Norms plays

NCAA 2-0

Double Play--Utah +3 vs Michigan
Double Play--Wyoming -11 vs Ohio
Double Play--Colorado -11 vs Colorado St
Double Play--Michigan St +4.5 vs California
Utah/Michigan Under
Memphis +7.5 vs Mississippi
Wisconsin -26.5 vs Akron
W. Michigan +14.5 vs Nebraska
Oregon -13.5 vs Washington
New Mexico +6.5 vs TCU
Oklahoma St -7 vs Washington St
Florida -34.5 vs Hawaii
USC -19.5 vs Virginia
ULaLa +10.5 vs So. Mississippi

[timbob]

las vegas sports advisors

NCAA football
8/30/2008 at 7:00:00 PM
Florida International at Kansas


Kansas

[timbob]

Carlo Campanella

Game: Michigan St. at California Aug 30 2008 8:00PM
Prediction: Michigan St.
Reason: Michigan State opens the NCAA season on Saturday with a tough trip to the west coast to face the Cal Bears, but must "take" the points here as they?ve been a money machine during Head Coach Mark Dantonio?s rookie season while owning a 5-1 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS as Dogs, while never losing by more than 7 points last season! Cal opened last year with 4 straight wins, however, they won just 2 of their final 8 games while posting a 1-7 ATS record. Tough spot to rebound against an aggressive unit from the Big 10.

7* Play On Michigan State

[timbob]

The Gold Medal Club

Ohio vs Wyoming 2:00pm
PLAY ON WYOMING -11

These teams met last year in Ohio with the Cowboys coming out on top 34-33 despite turning the ball over 7 times! Whats changed?
Well, Ohio has lost QB Brad Bower and 1st team ALL MAC running back Kalvin Mcrae.
For Wyoming who managed to cover 2 games ats last season, we have the entire offensive line back to open the holes for standout running back Wynel Seldon.
We see one team on the rise and the other in decline. A home opener, with a sleeper team , we will lay the chalk here as the Cowboys will dominate from start to finish.
Note Ohio 11-1 ats in there last 12 on grass, while Wyoming 1-12-1 in there last 14 on grass..we're not biting!

[timbob]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Akron at Wisconsin (Saturday 8/30 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Wisconsin -26.5 (-110)

Coach Bielema has taken this Wisconsin team to January Bowl games his first two years. But this may in fact be his best team yet. The offensive line is one of the best in the country and they have several backs that can do damage running the ball. They return 17 starters from a 9-win team a year ago. The Zips finished 3-5 in the MAC last season and return only 13 starters which is tied for fewest in the conference. They were outgained by MAC opponents last year by 70+ yards per game, and have just five defensive players returning. The defensive line struggled against MAC opponents so how will they fare versus one of the top offensive lines in the country? You get the picture. This is a lot of points but we see a Wisconsin rout here, and will lay the heavy points.

[timbob]

CKO
Confidential Kick-Off

11* Fresno State
10* Syracuse
10* Florida
10* Michigan State
10 * Kentucky


Utah,Pitt New Mexico,Colorado

[timbob]

Power Sweep Week 1

4* Wyoming over Ohio 38-13
3* USC over Virginia 35-7
3* W Michigan (+) over Nebraska 27-30
2* Louisiana Tech (+) over Miss State 20-23
2* Missouri over Illinois 34-21
2* Arkansas State (+) over Texas A&M 17-27

[timbob]

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET
MEMPHIS over MISSISSIPPI* by 6
MEMPHIS 33-27.

***BEST BET
ALABAMA over CLEMSON by 7 (Atlanta)
ALABAMA 27-20.

[timbob]

Northcoast

Totals
Under Fla
Under Kansas
Both 3's

Small College
4 w mich
3 La Laf
3 Ark St

[timbob]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michael Alexander

Hawaii vs. Florida (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: -34.5/-108 Florida

After getting demolished in las year's Sugar Bowl the Hawaii Rainbows hope to make that a distant memory when they travel to the "Swamp" to take on the Florida Gators today. The visitors come into this one not only off a big Bowl loss but also with the loss of their three year starting QB Brennan and head coach June Jones. To add insult to injury their QB picked to replace Brennan, Graunke, was not put on the roster due to personal reasons.

In the meantime the Gators come into this one with an offense that ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring (42.5 points per game) last year and looks to be even more potent this season because of yet another influx of talented freshmen and seven returning starters. On defense the Gators had a lot of injuries last season and that forced coach Meyer to shuttle six freshmen into the rotation at different points and now that young group has experience to back up its talent.

SUPPORTING TRENDS: FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA coach Meyer is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

Not many teams will be able to compete with the Gators on a regular basis, and Florida’s biggest competition will come from within the SEC which is not the case today. It's a lot of points to give but it's not much of a matchup. I'm taking the Gators.


3Daily Winners

No Illinois vs. Minnesota U (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: -7.5/-110 Minnesota

Normally would love a team like Northern Illinois in this spot, 20 returning starters, against a team from BCS conference who figures to be near the cellar. However, the Huskies have new coach in Jerry Kill and we have have already seen what has happened to Baylor and SMU with their new leaders. NIU is usually pretty solid with 7-3 ATS record against the Big Ten, with one big difference, they are almost always catching 10 or more points. Minnesota was 1-11 last year, but have 15 starters back with more experience. The Golden Gophers are 12-1 and 9-3 ATS in first home game and 22-13 ATS in non-conference action. If Northern Ilinois was at original +10.5, might have been worth a look, at this number, the Gophers are Golden.

Oddswiz

TCU vs. New Mexico (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: 6.5/-101 New Mexico

Last year TCU shut out New Mexico 37-0 but that score really not indicative of the difference between these two teams. A look at common opponents suggests that the talent level between these two much closer than that one game. TCU in better shape with returning starters but REVENGE can be sweet in college football, especially when your a touchdown home dog. This game opened -5.5 over a month ago and has been bet up to -6.5 even 7 with heavy juice in a few spots. We'll do a lean on New Mexico +7 here.

[timbob]

LT Profits

6:45PM ET CFB 2* Action Louisiana Tech (7.5 / -110) vs Mississippi State
7:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Northern Illinois (8.0 / -110) vs Minnesota
8:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Michigan State (4.5 / -110) vs California

[timbob]

Wisky -26.5 I would take this all the way up to -27.5 maybe 28, Wisky just returns to many starters especially on the offensive line and with P.J. Hill looking healthy could be a long day for the Zips defense

Pitt -13 after a few dissappointing seasons, Wannstedt has the players he recruited in place. they start off with a tough opening game againest a tough bowling green team favored to win there conference. The key to this game is one of the top backs in the country LeSean McCoy.

Virginia Tech -8 anytime I can lay just over a touchdown with a top 20 team againest a small school like east carolina I'll jump on it, if they were to play 4 weeks from now we'd be laying well over 2 TD's

GL to everyone and look back around 2:30 for added plays, until I get the site up and running all plays will be free for everyone. Now make sure your beers are cold and you have all your snacks ready it's college football saturday boys, lets make some money!!!

Bator

[timbob]

Highprofitsports

5* game of the week Nebraska -14
3* Pitt -13
3* Cal -4.5

[timbob]

Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Club


12:00 PM EDT

3 STAR SELECTION

East Carolina +9½ over Virginia Tech (@ CHARLOTTE, NC)

The Hokies are off a season in which they captured the ACC title and a BCS Bowl invite, and now open their 2008 season against a Pirates crew off an upset victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl.

Frank Beamer's Va Tech team won 11 games last season, but ended with a sour note, falling to Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz's were a pleasant surprise, winning eight games and finishing second in Conference USA's East Division. Now, off their bowl victory, there is plenty of reason for optimism in Greenville this season, as the Pirates are predicted to vie for the conference crown once again.

Tech has won the six straight in this series; however, it was a close 17-7 game in last year's season-opener, in which East Carolina covered the spread by 17+ points. Despite the loss, the Pirates were not intimidated by the Hokies, even in enemy territory, and certainly won’t be here in a neutral site.

Offensively, the Hokies were nothing special in 2007, and it may take them awhile to get on track in 2008. Senior Sean Glennon is back at the quarterback position, but he will be short on weapons. There is uncertainty in the receiving corps, where Tech must replace its top four pass catchers. Beamer is likely to give a few youngsters a crack at producing on the ground as well, with veteran Branden Ore being dismissed from the team in the spring.

The Hokie defense returns just four starters from a year ago, although Beamer usually gets the most out of this unit. It is in the front seven where Tech will need to fill the most holes, including the loss of standout LBs Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and rush end Chris Ellis.

The Pirates will have senior Patrick Pinkney at QB, although we expect to see talented junior Rob Kass as well. Tailback Chris Johnson was sensational for the Pirates last season, combining for 2,960 all-purpose years, but has now taken his talents to the NFL. East Caroline will plug in Brandon Simmons and spread the ball around to a wide receiver corps that has a bevy of good athletes, highlighted by the return of Jamar Bryant.

The Pirates loved to plunder the opponents last season, leading the conference with 31 takeaways and with nine starters back in the fold, this unit figures to be among the best in the league yet again.

This game should be similar to last year, in which East Carolina made a game of it. Skip Holtz is proving himself to be a good college football coach, following in his dad’s footsteps. He always has his team ready to go, especially in the role of dog. His Pirates have not only covered the number the last 4 times in that role, but have won the games outright. ECU is also 7-0 ATS when playing with revenge for a SU loss & ATS win, and not an underdog of more than 24 points.

The win in Hawaii last year for the Pirates was a tremendous boost for this program and that should carry over here, as after winning a Bowl Game as a double-digit underdog, teams at the right price have started the following season with a strong showing. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:

In Game 1, play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 19 points) off a Bowl Game SU win as an underdog of 10+ points last season. Since at least 1982, these confident teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than a dozen points a game.

We expect East Carolina to give the Hokies fits once again and see this game decided by a FG for a comfortable cover by the Pirates.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA TECH 27 EAST CAROLINA 24



2:00 PM EDT

4 STAR SELECTION

WYOMING -11 over Ohio

The Cowboys open the 2008 campaign with a home bout against the Bobcats in a non-conference tilt. Head coach Joe Glenn’s seat is getting a little warm in Wyoming after 4 seasons without a bowl game, so he’ll have his Cowboys ready to rope and ride on Saturday to get an easy “W”.

As for Ohio, they are off a 6-6 season, including a narrow 34-33 home loss to Wyoming.

Now, coach Frank Solich has a major issue on his hands as he sets out on another season of Ohio football, as Kalvin McRae who ended up with just under 4,400 yards for his career is gone. As recently as last week the coaches were still undecided on who would be the featured back in the offense, suffering through some injuries and lackluster play.

The offense for the Bobcats was rather mediocre last year as it was, while the defense wasn’t any better. Now, they have to deal with the loss of Todd Koenig, the team's top tackler.

Junior college transfer Dax Crum is the new top gun for Glenn at Wyoming. Crum is just a sophomore, but having been named an honorable mention All-American and one of the top offensive players in the NJCAA is certainly nothing to sneeze at. The running game should be solid again with running backs Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon who combined for 1500 yards last year, providing one of the most punishing one-two punches in the league.

Junior John Fletcher was a huge part of a run defense that ranked 27th in the nation last year with a mere 123 ypg allowed as he ranked among the league's top linemen in terms of tackles with 60. He returns for the Cowboys, as do 6 more starters on defense.

Some may think the Bobcats will have a “revenge” edge here as falling short at home to Wyoming last season; however, an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows just the opposite. It states:

In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 4½-14½ points seeking revenge for a SU loss scoring 25+ points.

For 20 seasons, these teams have gone 0-13 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 15 ppg! The last 2 qualifying teams and 3 of the last 4 were MAC teams.

We also note that the Bobcats are little more than pussy cats when it comes to avenging a loss. Specifically, they are a pathetic 0-12 SU (-23.6 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a road underdog seeking revenge for a home SU loss (not as a favorite of more than 5 points). Meanwhile, Wyoming is 6-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg) at home in non-conference games when not favored by more than 24 points.

We see plenty of value with the Cowboys and jump on their bandwagon here.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WYOMING 34 OHIO 13



3:30 PM EDT

5 STAR SELECTION

USC -19 over VIRGINIA

The mighty Trojans begin their quest for another national title this weekend, as they travel to take on the Cavaliers.

Pete Carroll's crew is once again the favorite to win the Pac-10 and contend for the national championship after going 11-2 overall in 2007 and capping the campaign with a 49-17 destruction of Illinois in the Rose Bowl.

The Cavaliers also had a highly successful 2007 campaign, winning nine games overall and placing second in the ACC's Coastal Division with a 6-2 mark; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon for Al Groh and the program.

As usual, USC was an offensive juggernaut last season and although there are holes to fill in 2008, there is seemingly a revolving door of talent at the school and the cupboard is never bare. Taking over under center should be Mark Sanchez, despite coming off a dislocated his left kneecap during practice on August 8th. The Trojans are very deep in the backfield with the likes of Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and C.J. Gable. Patrick Turner is a huge target at and could emerge as a top receiving threat, while big things are also expected from junior Videl Hazelton and sophomore Damian Williams. The Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season, and even bigger things are expected from the unit in 2008.

The Cavaliers were merely average in terms of offensive production in 2007 and gone is QB Jameel Sewell. True freshman Peter Lalich got a taste of action in 2007 and is the only returning signal-caller who got any snaps last season. He will battle senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica for the starting nod, and whoever goes here will be drowning in sea of Trojan red.

Virginia’s ground game should be a strength of the offense with the return of senior Cedric Peerman; however, he’s coming off an injury and is likely to be smothered by USC. Once the Trojans take a commanding lead, the Cavs will have to abandon the run and become sitting ducks. Virginia’s defense played well last year, allowing 20 ppp; however, gone is All-American Chris Long up front and he will be impossible to replace.

Last year, the Cavaliers had a lot of things go their way, winning a national record five games by two points or less. That doesn't seem likely this time around, as Coach Groh will have his hands full just being competitive week in and week out. His team is simply overmatched in this game and will be doing well just to score.

USC will be ready to come out strong here, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+17.8 ppg) in first true road of the season under Pete Carroll.

Some may point to the Trojans next game, and figure they’ll be looking ahead to hosting Ohio State; however, they have a week off following the trip to Virginia, so they should be completely 100% focused on the task at hand. In fact, double-digit road favorites coming off a solid year and starting the season with extended rest following their first game have been tremendous as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

In Game 1, play ON a Saturday road favorite of more than 10 points before 7+ days rest, home in its next game and off 5+ SU wins last season.

Since 1998 these teams are 10-0 SU & ATS, beating the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The last qualifying team was none other than USC when the Trojans traveled to Hawaii and blew up the Warriors, 63-17, covering an enormous 36-point spread.

Another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that the Trojans should continue their momentum from their Rose Bowl romp. It advises:

In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent.

Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average. The Trojans are a bit under the radar, not being the preseason #1, so we look for them to make a statement here with a blowout win over the Cavaliers

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 35 VIRGINIA 9








8:00 PM EDT

4 STAR SELECTION

Michigan State +4 ½ over CALIFORNIA

It’s the Big Ten vs. the Pac 10 Saturday night, in what should be a great game, as the Spartans travel to take on the Golden Bears.

Michigan State is coming off their first winning season since 2003, as last season they won their last two regular season games to earn a bowl bid.

As for California, they posted their sixth straight winning season last year due to a Bowl win over Air Force, finishing with a 7-6 ledger.

The Spartans used a two-headed running attack last season, and that led to nearly 200 rushing yards per contest. Javon Ringer returns for Michigan State, giving the Spartans their home run threat out of the backfield. Brian Hoyer will once again be under center for the Spartans, looking to improve on his numbers from last year.

For the Bears, QB Nate Longshore struggled at times and was eventually hurt, and his absence opened the door for Kevin Riley, who performed well while under center. After a long battle in the spring, Riley was given the nod to start, and will be under center in the opener. He will need plenty of help, as the top four receivers from a year ago are gone. Another issue will be the ground attack, which will have to replace Justin Forsett, who has moved on to the NFL.

This should be one of the more exciting games in the first week of the season, and we like Dantonio here to keep his team in this game and give them a chance to pull out a late win. Michigan State is a strong 6-0-1 ATS as an underdog since late 2006, including 5-0-1 ATS under Dantonio.

These teams met a few years ago, when the Bears upset the Spartans on the road, so Michigan State will have a little payback in mind. They are also 4-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) seeking revenge for a home SU loss, while Cal is an ugly 0-9 ATS (-15.8) in the Regular Season when not getting more than 7 points vs. an opponent playing with revenge.

An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates that non-conference road teams have been solid when looking to start the season by avenging a loss as a big favorite. It states:

In Game 1, play on a non-conference road team (not an underdog of more than 17 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points in the last matchup vs. an opponent not played in opponent’s final contest of last year. This has been perfect situation for 2 decades, going 11-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg.

Following this contest, Cal has a game at Washington State, which might be where their focus is, as they are 0-5 ATS (-9.5 ppg) in non-conference home games before a conference game. The Bears are also active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that reveals with a conference road game coming up, teams off a Bowl victory have not been motivated enough to cover the spread in their season opener. It advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a home team off a Bowl Game SU win in its last contest the previous season and before a conference road game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 13+ points.

Since 1990, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average.

The Spartans are an under-rated team and should surprise the Bears with a fierce fight.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 28 CALIFORNIA 27



8:30 PM EDT

3 STAR SELECTION

Missouri -8 ½ over Illinois (@ ST, LOUIS, MO)

A couple of preseason Top 20 teams meet in St. Louis on Saturday, as the sixth-ranked Tigers of the Big 12 Conference battle the 20th-ranked Fighting Illini of the Big Ten. Both teams are coming off surprising seasons, as Ron Zook turned the Illinois around and took his team to the Rose Bowl, while Missouri won the Big 12 North Division title and went 12-2, with Oklahoma being the only team to defeat them on the season.

For Illinois, junior quarterback Juice Williams is the spark plug of the offense. He’s always been a great runner, and last year picked up his passing numbers. This year, Zook and his staff are hoping for further growth from their most dynamic player, but it won't be easy, as Williams will have to do so without the services of RB stud Rashard Mendenhall, who was scooped up in the first round of the NFL draft after garnering Big Ten MVP honors. The biggest question for the offense heading into this opener is who, if anyone, is capable of being even half the player that Mendenhall was for the Illini.

The Tigers finished last season ranked in the top-10 in three major offensive categories, as scored 40 ppg behind nearly 500 yards per game. The return of QB Chase Daniel, receivers Tommy Saunders and Jeremy Maclin along with three offensive linemen means there is likely more of the same on tap this fall.

Illinois was brought back to earth by USC in the Rose Bowl, and that’s likely to continue with too much weight on Juice Williams. Teams that got destroyed in a Bowl Game have done very poorly as a Game 1 underdog, as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 2-21½ points off a Bowl Game SU loss of 28+ points last season vs. an opponent not off a Bowl Game SU loss of 14+ points in its last game.

Going all the way back to 1982, these teams are a horrible 0-13 SU & ATS.

We also note that Missouri has simply had the Illini’s number, especially when not having to play on the Illinois home field. The Illini are 0-7 SU & ATS vs. the Tigers away from home. Missouri figures to build on their tremendous season last year, and we look for them start this season where they left last year, with a resounding SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 34 ILLINOIS 17


10:00 PM EDT

5 STAR SELECTION

OREGON -13½ OVER Washington

Pac-10 rivals face off Saturday night when the Ducks host the Huskies. Since taking over at the helm for Washington, head coach Ty Willingham has not enjoyed much success, leading the team to a miserable 12-35 ledger. This year doesn’t look to hold much more promise, placing Ty squarely on the hot seat.

As for Oregon, it opened last season with eight wins in the first nine games, but the final three regular season contests resulted in defeat after QB Dennis Dixon went down. Despite the late collapse, the Ducks recovered their “mojo” at the Sun Bowl and crushed South Florida in that game by a 56-21 final. The Ducks did lose some significant talent from that club, but a high level of talent remains on the roster, accounting for their Top 25 ranking.

The Huskies' offense will revolve around their very talented and versatile quarterback Jake Locker, although he comes in here nursing a sore hamstring. He is still raw, as he only completed 47.5 percent of his throws and had just 14 pass TDs against 15 interceptions. He did also rush for nearly 1000 yards and 13 scores, making him a tremendous dual threat entering this season, but it remains to be seen how much he will be able to do on the ground due to his injury. He won’t have many familiar faces around, as the wide receiver corps was depleted, and RB Louis Rankin has to be replaced after becoming the first 1,000-yard rusher at Washington since 1997. Sophomore Brandon Johnson was expected to be the main back for the Huskies, but he is suffering from a calf injury that leaves his status for this opener questionable.

Over the past few seasons, the Huskies have been atrocious defensively, and while the addition of new defensive coordinator in Ed Donatell brings some hope, expectations should not be great, as it will take time to learn the new system.

The quarterback position is definitely the main issue for coach Oregon’s Bellotti as he enters the 2008 season. Nathan Costa figured to take over the starting job, but he will miss much, if not all, of the season with a knee injury. As a result, redshirt sophomore Justin Roper will lead the offense. He should be able to step in here and do the job, as he led the team to the crushing defeat of South Florida in the Sun Bowl. He played well in the team's final scrimmage last Friday and has been around the program long enough to get a strong command of the offense. Roper will have the luxury of throwing to Jaison Williams, one of the most dangerous wideouts in the Pac-10.

Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball for Oregon, giving the Ducks a veteran unit that should improve on last year's numbers.

Laying nearly 2 TDs here in a conference rivalry game is reason for cause; however, we have a pile of numbers to support Oregon covering the spread. When they win, they usually win big, as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 SU victories. They have also dominated this series, going 4-0 SU & ATS vs. the Huskies since 2004. The Ducks have done well in these early conference clashes, going superb 4-0 SU (+21.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) in Game 1 conference home games since 1989.

Oregon also qualifies for some our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. Showing that teams can build off an explosive Bowl Game showing, we have a system that states:

In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent. Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.

Playing at home against a conference foe they have dominated of late has been a great way to start the season for favorite, as another POWER SYSTEMS reveals with:

In Game 1, play ON a non-Thursday conference home favorite of less than 35 points vs. an opponent seeking revenge for SU losses in the last 3 matchups. Since 1993, these teams are 8-0 SU & ATS, again covering by more than 15 points on average. We note that the last team to qualify for this spot was these same Ducks. To start the 2006 season, Oregon hosted Stanford, and simply covered the 11’-point spread by 26’ points with a 48-10 romp.

The Huskies did put some points on the board against Oregon last year, which may give them some false hope. As it turns out, conference road teams have not been up to the task of starting the season seeking to avenge a defeat in which they put a fair amount of points. We have yet another POWER SYSTEM that advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a conference road team (not an underdog of more than 16 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss, scoring 25+ points.

Going back 20+ seasons, this system is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS. The “revenge” team have failed to cover the spread by more than 17 points a game on average! When one team dominates a conference foe, there is little revenge motivation in their favor. The edge goes to the team doing the dominating, and we look for the Ducks to put the hammer down here and whip the Huskies for a SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 38 WASHINGTON 17

[timbob]

Pointwise:
4 Mem. Kan
3 N Mex, Mich St, Fla, KSt,
2 Miss St, Tulsa, Syr, Fresno