8-30-08

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

12:00PM ET CFB 4* Best Northwestern (-11.0 / -110) vs Syracuse
8:00PM ET CFB 4* Best California (-4.5 / -110) vs Michigan State

[timbob]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (1st of '08!)-TV game
My Las Vegas Insider is on USC at 3:30 ET. Al Groh's Virginia team won nine games last year but SIX were by five points or less with FIVE coming by two points or less (an NCAA record). Let's see what USC has been up to lately. In the last six years, there have been at least a share of six consecutive Pac-10 titles, six straight BCS bowls, three Heisman Trophy winners and two national championps. Pete Carroll was hired in December 2000 and after a 2-5 start, has gone 74-9! He's coached 30 first-team All-Americans and 11 first-round draft choices (four in 2007 alone). He has the best winning percentage (.844) among active coaches with at least five years of experience and if USC wins at least 11 games this season, it will be the first school to ever accomplish that it six consecutive seasons. Let's not forget the school's 34-game winning streak (tied for sixth-longest ever) that started after a triple-overtime loss to Cal and ended with the BCS title game loss to Texas. That was in the 2006 Rose Bowl when Carroll came within 19 seconds of becoming the first coach to win three consecutive major-poll national championships. Not bad stuff! The Cavs were merely average offensively in 2007 and won't be much better (if at all) in '08. QB Jameel Sewell is gone, leaving Peter Lalich (a true frosh LY, who had 61 attempts), senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica vying for time. It will help greatly if WR Kevin Ogletree (who missed 2007 due to injury) can contribute as he did in '06. The RB situation should be decent with the return to health of Cedric Peerman (585 YR / 5.2 YPC) plus Mikell Simpson, who played well down the stretch and finished the year averaging 5.0 yards per carry (570 YR). However, the Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season and despite some huge losses, big things are expected from USC's defense once again in 2008. QB Mark Sanchez dislocated his left kneecap during warm-ups on August 8th but he is listed as the starter for this game. Even if he doesn't play all that much, I'm not worried. The Trojans are very deep at RB and any one of a number of players could step up this year. Virginia's D will be physically overmatched and while Al Groh is 34-10 SU at home with the Cavs (including 14-4 as a home dog), I expect Pete Carroll to want to blow out more opponents out this year. That wasn't the case in '07 and it cost USC in the final BCS standings. The Ohio State showdown is still two weeks away (with an off week up next), so expect a very crisp effort by USC in this one. Las Vegas Insider on USC.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (12-2 finish LY)-Early game
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Yes, the Gators have Miami up next but the 'Canes are hardly the rivals they once were. Hawaii was last year's non-BCS 'darlings,' going 12-0 in the regular season with Colt Brennan running Junes Jones' offense to perfection. However, Brennan is off to the NFL and Jones is now at SMU. Taking over on the sidelines for Hawaii is last year's DC, Greg McMackin, in his first head coaching job. Senior QB Tyler Graunke is still dealing with academic issues and Brent Rausch, a third-year sophomore from College of the Desert, was announced as the team's No. 1 quarterback two weeks ago. However, he has been bothered the past week with tenderness in the right forearm and biceps of his throwing arm and is now listed as questionable for this game. The team's top-four receivers are gone from last year (three had topped 1,000 yards) and Hawaii's running game, which ranked 116th of 119 team's in '08 with 77.6 YPG (3.4 YPC), cannot be expected to "carry the load." The Hawaii defense did a solid job last year but only four starters return in '08. The real strength of the defense is the linebacking corps but the secondary loses both CBs and a starting safety from last year. Hawaii must make this long trek to Florida and then deal with the weather (especially the humidity) in "The Swamp." Florida is the AP's No. 5-ranked team but many SEC observers feel as if the Gators and not preseason No. 1 Georgia, is the favorite to take CFB's toughest conference. Speaking of Georgia, last year's Hawaii team (the best in school history) was totally outclassed by the Bulldogs in last year's Sugar Bowl, losing 41-10. The game wasn't as close as the score, as Brennan had almost "no chance" against Georgia's blitzes. The Gator D was young last year but this year returns eight starters. It will be way too athletic and fast for the Rainbows and even the backups will be able to control the line of scrimmage in the latter stages of the game. Heisman-winner Tebow became the first sophomore to ever win that award last year, becoming the first player in NCAA history to pass for more than 20 TDs (32) and rush for more than 20 (23) in the same season. WR Percy Harvin is expected to miss but Florida has plenty of talent in its receiving corps. Meyer is happy with his RB depth (he claims it's four-deep) and the offense, which was third nationally with 42.5 PPG, will score easily against a severely overworked Warrior defense. Weekend Wipeout Winner of Florida.

Good Luck

[timbob]

Dr Bob Opinions Only



Pitt
KSt
Cal
UAB
Utah
La Mon
Wyo under

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's #1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH
Memphis


BIG AL's 93% (14-1) EARLY SATURDAY NCAA ROUT
Gators

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
Game: Utah at Michigan Aug 30 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Utah
Reason: I'm playing the Utah Utes, plus points. The Michigan Wolverines will no doubt be in "upset watch" mode when they welcome the Utah Utes to the Big House. After all, last season's opening loss to Appalachian State would make anyone a bit skiddish, especially a new coaching staff that inherits the pressure to succeed right out of the blocks. But new HC Rich Rodriguez will have to get things done with several key components missing from last season's offensive unit. QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, WR Mario Manningham are all gone, and the Wolverines will have to replace four of last season's five starters along the offensive line. It's an offensive line made up mainly of juniors, but their two years of experience were obviously in a much different offense than the one they're learning under Rodriguez. Making matters tougher for the Wolverines is the strength of the team they're opening up against. Utah is entertaining thoughts of an undefeated season if they can get by the Wolverines. They'll have a few serious tests down the road, including a game against rival BYU, but UM obviously presents the biggest hurdle on the way to their goal. Utah suffered a ton of injuries last season that amounted to a total of 51 lost starts. HC Kyle Whittingham's Utes return 14 starters to this year's version, including eight on offense, not to mention several two-deep players who received valuable experience last season due to the injuries mentioned above. As the Utes began to get healthy and newcomers began to get comfortable after being thrown into starting roles, Utah found their way after a sluggish start. They won eight of their last nine games, with the only loss coming by just a TD at BYU. QB Brian Johnson, ironically, would be "just the man" to run Rich Rodriguez' spread attack. Unfortunately for the new Michigan coach, Johnson is a Ute. Johnson is healthy this season and brings with him the MWC's best running back corps, led by senior Darrell Mack. Those running backs will line up behind a loaded offensive line. Four of five starters are back up front, totaling 83 starts between them. Defensively, the Utes bring Paul Kruger back to the mix at defensive end. He will lead a solid pass-rushing front-four. The linebacking corps may be down a notch from last season, (lost Jamel King in spring practice), but will be bolstered by a strong secondary that returns nine of their top 10 players. As far as techinals are concerned, Utah has been a decent money-maker in the role they're in on Saturday. The Utes are on a 38-19, 67% spread run when installed as an underdog, and they're a healthy 22-9, 71% ATS run when getting 3 1/2 to 10 1/2 points, (currently +3 1/2). Meanwhile, the Wolverines are on an 18-34 spread slide laying 3 1/2 to 10 1/2 points and they have covered just three of their last nine non-conference tilts. While those numbers came under the old regime, I do expect the new staff's schemes to take a while to take hold. Meanwhile, their dangerous visitor has their most talented team in four seasons under HC Whittingham. Look for the Utes to shock the Wolverines on Saturday. I'm taking the points with Mountain West entry, Utah.

Spreitzer 25* is UNLV

[Mr. IWS]

Big AL

At 7 pm (time change), our selection is on the Memphis Tigers plus the points over the Ole Miss Rebels. This will be the fifth straight year that these two rivals have opened up their seasons against each other. Last year, Tommy West's Tigers lost by 2-points, 23-21, at home vs. Mississippi, and that game was representative of this series, which has seen the last four years' games all decided by seven points or less. There will be one change on the Mississippi sideline for this game, however, and that will be new coach Houston Nutt, who replaces Ed Orgeron, who compiled a 10-25 record for the Rebels. Last year, Mississippi's offense was dreadful, and ranked 104th in scoring, 107th in turnover margin, and 84th in rushing. Given its lackluster performance in 2007, this pointspread is too high, especially for the opening game of the season, and one that is against a foe that made a Bowl game last year. Memphis is a solid 22-10 ATS since 1980 as revenging road dogs of more than 3 points vs. non-conference opposition, and the Tigers also fall into a revenge system of mine that's 38-13 ATS since 1980. College Football Game of the Month on Memphis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big football winner on Saturday in an EARLY AFTERNOON game. It's out of a 93% angle, and is available right now.

At 12:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Hawaii. This will be a tough season for the Rainbows. Not only did star quarterback Colt Brennan graduate (he was drafted by the Washington Redskins), but head coach June Jones took his run-and-shoot offense, and bolted for SMU (perhaps Jones knew this would be a difficult year). So the Rainbows will be led by new head coach Greg McMackin and hand the quarterback duties over to sophomore Brent Rausch, who has no playing experience at Hawaii. The Rainbows last game was also against an SEC opponent -- Georgia in the Sugar Bowl -- and the Rainbows were completely outclassed in a 41-10 drubbing. And that was with Brennan and Jones! I don't think they'll be any better in "The Swamp" on Saturday afternoon. Florida has won 18 straight openers, and 38 of its last 39 openers at Florida Field. With reigning Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow at quarterback, the 5th-ranked Gators will no doubt be explosive on offense. Last season, Florida averaged 42.5 ppg (third best in NCAA), as Tebow threw for 3,286 yards and 32 touchdowns while running for 895 yards and 23 touchdowns! So coach Urban Meyer knows his offense will be there, but Florida will also be improved this season on defense, as it returns eight starters, including Brandon Spikes, a first-team All-SEC linebacker last year (2nd in SEC with 131 tackles). Finally, no coach is better against the spread vs. non-conference foes than Meyer. In his tenures at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, Meyer's teams are 24-4 ATS vs. non-conference opposition, including 18-0 SU and 14-1, 93% ATS at home (with three non-lined games). And the only ATS loss was by just five points! Lay the wood with the Gators! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Game of the Month on Saturday!

At 7:10pm our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves. If the Nationals could play the entire season against the Braves, they might
just win the NL East Division and be headed for the postseason. As bad as Washington is this season (50-85 and the worst team in the National League), with its victory in the first game of this series on Friday it is now 8-4 in 2008 against this Braves team. The Nats seem to have Atlanta's number this
season, as does just about every team that plays them at home.
Atlanta has a 23-44 record away
from Turner Field after Friday's 7-3 pasting at the hands of this Washington squad. Although the Nats are not going anywhere this season, they are getting healthy and finally getting some decent offensive production from the likes of Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, and Ryan Zimmerman. Incredibly, the Nats have now won four straight games, including a three-game sweep at home over the NL West-contending Dodgers. A lot of people scratched their head when the Nats dealt Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for an unknown 2B prospect right before the All-Star Break, but that move does not seem to have hurt the Nats' bullpen one bit. 26-year-old Joel Hanrahan has moved right into
the closer's position and has not missed a beat, and the rest of the Nationals' relief squad has performed much better than average. Atlanta is now 4-14 in their last 18 games. NL East Game of the Month on the Nationals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

[RedHottG2]

I had a request for the ATS wins parlay of the month if you guys happen to see that thanks!

[timbob]

PPP

3 Syracuse
Fla Atl
Aub
KSU

[timbob]

BURNS

I'm laying the points with CALIFORNIA. I successfully played against the Bears in their home opener two years ago. Listed as small favorites, they traveled to Tennessee and got crushed by the Volunteers. Last year, I successfully played ON the Bears in their opener. Once again, they faced the Vols. However, this time the game was played here in Berkeley and this time it was the revenge-minded Bears who won by double-digits. Note that while the Bears have played a top tier team in their opener each of the past two years, the Spartans have hosted the likes of UAB, Idaho and Kent State in their opener in each of the past three seasons, laying more than three touchdowns in each of those games. In other words, traveling to the West Coast to take on a solid Pac 10 program represents a major step up in class for a team used to easing its way into Big 10 play. Note that the Spartans weren't planning on flying out here until Friday and were planning on staying on Eastern Time, rather than going early and trying to adjust. Both teams have suffered quite a few losses from last year. The Spartans' losses are arguably bigger though, as they are now without WR Devin Thomas, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, TE Kellen Davis and DE Jonal Saint-Dic, all four of whom were integral parts of last year's squad. They do bring back QB Brian Hoyer and he should have another solid season. However, it may take some time to adjust to not having his favorite targets. He'll face an experienced Cal defense (8 starters) while dealing with a fired up Bears team looking to make amends after underachieving last year. The Bears are also inexperienced on offense and as a result, expectations aren't as high as they have been in recent seasons. However, they have more weapons than most people think and Coach Tedford has always gotten the most out of his teams, when flying under the radar. Additionally, although we could easily see some of both, I really like the decision to go with the more athletic Kevin Riley over the more experienced Nate Longshore, as the starting QB. The Bears are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by less than eight points. They're also 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times that they faced a team from the Big-10. On the other hand, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS the last five times they faced a team from the Pac-10, including a 46-22 loss vs. the Bears when these teams last met in 2002. With the home crowd behind them, look for the Bears to get the season started with a important win and cover. *TV GOM

[timbob]

BURNS
EARLY HIGH NOON MASSACRE

I'm laying the points with NORTHWESTERN. The Wildcats were bowl eligible with six wins last season but didn't make it to a bowl. This year's team is loaded with returning starters and should be Pat Fitzgerald's best group yet. Having missed out on the postseason last year, Fitzgerald and co. know the importance of getting off to a strong start this year and winning all their non-conference home games. Note that the Wildcats lost an early home game vs. Duke last year, which ultimately proved extremely costly. I expect them to have learned from that experience and for them to take care of their winnable games this year. Off another awful season, Syracuse certainly fits the bill. Note that the Wildcats are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four August games. During the same stretch, the Orange were 0-3 SU/ATS in their August games. The Orange return a decent number of starters and should be better this season. That's not really saying a whole lot though, as they were 2-10 last year and were terrible on both sides of the ball. The offense managed just 16.4 points per game on the strength of a mere 62.8 yards rushing. The defense was arguably even worse, allowing 34.8 points per game and 468.8 total yards per game. Given last year's record and his 3-year record of 7-28, it's somewhat surprising that the Orange haven't fired coach Greg Robinson. They havent though and even with a more experienced team, it figures to be another long year. The Wildcats have the offense to exploit the porous Orange defense. Quarterback C.J. Bacher returns. Bacher completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,656 yards and 19 touchdowns last year and he's got all his main weapons back. He's also got a new offensive coordinator in Mick McCall. Note that McCall was Bowling Green's offensive coordinator last year and the Falcons went from 19.5 points in 2006 to 30.2 in 2007. He also has given the Wildcats' offense a new no-huddle attack, which should prove particularly difficult to defend for a team playing it's first game. The Northwestern defense also has a new coordinator in Mike Hankwitz. The experienced Hankwitz has worked with several big name programs, inlcuding Wisconsin the past two seasons, and has instituted an "attack first style." Coach Fitgerald had this to say: "He brought an attitude that we're going to be a good defense. We've been improving since he's been aboard. We're going to attack people. We're going to dictate what we want to do." Asked on his team's goal for the season, Fitzgerald said: "What's in our control is to win a bowl game. I think that's a great expectation." Look for them to take the first step to achieving that goal, beginning the season with a double-digit victory.

[timbob]

BURNS
HUGE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. This is one of the more intriguing opening week matchups as it features a pair of ranked teams, both of which have lofty expectations. The Tigers were one of the best teams in the country and last season and they should be very good once again. That being said, the Illini are no slouches either! Illinois brings 13 starters back from last season's 9-win team, most importantly star quarterback Juice Williams. In his first year, Williams dazzled defenses with his feet. Last year, in addition to his 755 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, Williams also passed for another 1,743 yards and 13 scores, completing a healthy 57 percent of his attempts. He should be even better this season. However, it's the Illinois defensive line which everyone is raving about and which figures to be the Illini's best unit since the early 90s. Not only do the Illini have excellent talent at the defensive line position but they've also got plenty of depth. This will help to allow them to keep subbing in fresh pass rushers throughout the game. While Tigers' Chase Daniel is bound to have another monster season, I expect him to find the going tougher than he did here in St. Louis last season. The bottom line is that while I have a great deal of respect for what Missouri brings to the table, I also think Illinois is a very good team and feel that this line is too high. You may recall last year's game as turned out to be a thriller. The Tigers jumped off to a big early lead. Illinois fought all the way back from 24 points down with six minutes to go in the third quarter though and the Tigers needed an interception at the 1-yard-line with 51 seconds left in the game to preserve the victory. Williams and the Illini have learned a lot about themselves since that time, beating the likes of Penn State, Wisconsin and #1 Ohio State, on the road no less. The last two games in this rivalry, both played here at St. Louis, were both decided by a touchdown or less. While they failed to cover last year's meeting by a point, this year's line is a fair bit higher. Additionally, even including that pointspread loss AND their bowl loss to USC, the Illini are still a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they were listed as underdogs. I expect this one to come down to the wire once again and am grabbing the generous points. *Underdog GOM

[timbob]

Root

Millionaire - Alabama
Chairman - E. Carolina
No Limit - Utah
Money Maker - N. Mexico

[timbob]

Larry Ness' 15* Team Mismatch of the Week (185-97 two-year run!)
My 15* play is on the Arz D'backs at 8:10 ET. The Dodgers were tied atop the NL West with the D'backs back on August 15 but have lost 11 of 13 since then, including the team's current 0-8 mark on their current 10-game road trip (includes three losses at Washington, which owns MLB's worst record ar 50-85). The D'backs easily dispatched the Dodgers last night 9-3, ending their four-game losing streak and moving them 4 1/2 games ahead of LA in the division. The D'backs have survived this year by dominating their NL West opponents, going 35-19 (.648) against divisions foes, as compared to just 34-46 (.425) against the rest of MLB. In comparison, the Dodgers have lost eight of the 13 head-to-head meetings with the D'backs and have gone just 24-25 overall, vs the NL West. The Dodgers have been outscored 54-15 during their current eight-game slide and although they'll send their best pitcher to the mound in Chad Billingsley (12-10, 3.15 ERA), he's gone just 1-1 over his last five starts with the team losing FOUR of the five games, despite him posting a respectable 3.60 ERA during that stretch. LA gets more bad news knowing that Billingsley has had absolutely NO success vs Arizona this year, as in three starts, he's allowed 18 hits and 12 ERs over 14 innings (7.71 ERA) while going 0-3. The D'backs will send Dan Haen to the mound and Haren has done exactly what they had hoped he would do when they traded with the A's for him in the off-season. Haren's been the perfect No.2 man to the team's ace, Brandon Webb. Haren enters this game with a 14-6 mark (3.10 ERA) and is 10-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts (team is 10-4). Stick with the D'backs here, as the Dodgers' slide continues. Team Mismatch GOW 15* Arz D'backs.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (44-26 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Fla Marlins at 7:10 ET. Carlos Beltran hit a grand slam in the top of the 9th for the Mets last night, giving them a 5-2 lead. However, nothing comes easy for this team, which blew a seven-game lead last year with just 17 games remaining. Luis Ayala got the save last night for the Mets but not before he allowed four hits and two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The loss continued Florida's recent slide, as the Marlins have now lost 13 of their last 20 games and fallen seven games behind the Mets in the NL East. Tonight's pitching matchup features the teams' two-top winners and who would have believed that, at the start of this season. New York's Mike Pelfrey was 3-8 with a 5.57 ERA last year, while Ricky Nolasco, after going 11-11 in '06, was hurt almost all of '07, making just five appearances (four starts). However, entering this game, Pelfrey is 13-8 with a 3.70 ERA and Nolasco is 13-7 with a 3.62 ERA. Pelfrey is 11-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last 17 starts (team is 14-3) and is off back-to-back complete games. Meanwhile, Nolasco has also won his last two starts (21 Ks and just 2 walks) and the Marlins are 17-9 (plus-$1,174) in his 26 starts this year, making him MLB's fourth-biggest "money-maker." So what do we do here? Take the Marlins and Nolasco and here's why. Pelfrey has a 2.67 ERA in 15 home starts this year but in 11 road starts, has allowed 81 hits in just 61.2 innings, while his ERA is more than DOUBLE (5.40 ERA) what it is at Shea. Even more importantly, Pelfrey has had HUGE problems with the Marlins. He faced them once last year (lost to Nolasco, 5-3) and has taken them on three times in '08. In just 12.2 innings of work this year vs the Marlins (has yet to make it out of the 5th!), Pelfrey has allowed 21 hits and 15 ERs for a 10.66 ERA in going 0-3. Nolasco has been the team's most consistent pitcher all season and the Marlins just LOVE facing Pelfrey. Las Vegas Insider on the Fla Marlins.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (3-0 CFB start / combined scores of 132-44!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Michigan at 3:30 ET. Rich Rodriquez left West Va after last year's regular season to take the job at Michigan. There are 18 Div I-A schools with new head coaches this year and Rodriguez arguably has the highest profile, as Michigan is the winningest program in NCAA history with 869 all-time wins. Add to that the fact that Michigan has produced 40 consecutive winning seasons and has made 33 straight bowl appearances (both streaks are the longest active ones in the NCAA) and that almost solidifies the fact. Rodriguez went just 3-8 in his first year at West Va but 57-18 the next six years, leading the Mountaineers to six bowls (he didn't coach in LY's Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma). It won't be easy at Michigan in his first year, as the Wolverines return just three offensive starters and not a single skill position player. Then again, since Rodriguez is installing a new system, that may not be all that bad. On the other hand, Michigan's defense is expected to be top-notch, especially its front-seven. Utah comes in with lots of confidence off a 9-4 season and its seventh straight bowl win. QB Brian Johnson is expected to be healthy this year but I'm not as sold on him as others (shoulder?). He's got two very good RBs in Mack (1,204 YR) and the now healthy Matt Asiata, four starters back on the OL, plus a number of quality WRs. Utah's defense allowed just 16.8 PPG last year (ranked 5th) and was No. 1 in pass efficiency defense with a rating of 96.5 a year ago. Installing an entirely new offense with players who need to have time to grow into the new schemes is not an easy task, yet coach Rodriguez insists on making it happen in Ann Arbor. He, like everyone else in the CFB world, remembers what happened to Michigan in last year's season opener. The Wolverines lost 34-32 to Appalachian State last year and the team never really covered. Although expectations are high in Salt Lake City this year, this is one tough opening-game venue for the Utes. Utah is just 3-8 SU on the road vs BCS schools this decade in the regular season and as this number keeps "coming down," the Utes virtually need to win this game in order to cover! Michigan is rebuilding but with last year's upset by App State "fresh in the minds" of the players and Michigan's new head coach, I expect the Wolverines to play an outstanding game. At this price, Michigan is a bargain. Oddsmaker's Error on Michigan.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Bailout Game of the Month (3-0 start to CFB '08 by combined scores of 132-44!)
My Bailout Game of the Month is on Cal at 8:00 ET. California is used to tough season-openers, having visited Kansas City to open the '03 season to meet a Kansas St team coming off an 11-2 season (lost 42-28) and the last two years, playing the Vols (lost at Tenn in '06 before beating them here in Berkeley last year). Meanwhile, Michigan State has opened at home each of the last three years, hosting teams like UAB, Idaho and Kent State. MSU actually opened with two straight home games in both '05 and '06, before opening with three straight home games last year. The last time MSU opened on the road was '04, when the Spartans lost 19-14 at Rutgers, a team which had entered that campaign with a string of 11 straight non-winning seasons and would finish just 5-7 in '04. Mark Dantonio is in his second year at East Lansing and Year 1 was hardly an unqualified success, as the Spartans finished a fairly mediocre 7-6, after losing 24-21 to Boston College in the Champs Sports Bowl. QB Brian Hoyer returns, as does RB Ringer, who ran for 1,447 yards (5.9 YPC). However, Hoyer no longer has his two favorite receivers, WR Thomas (79 catches / 1,260 yards / 8 TDs) and TE Davis (32 catches / 6 TDs). Also, last year's rushing game was so good (198.2 YPG / 4.4 YPC / 29 TDs), because Ringer also had a HUGE fullback in the backfield with him in Jehuu Caulcrick (872 YR / 19 TDs), but he's gone as well. As for Cal, Jeff Tedford enters his seventh year at the school. He took over the team in 2002 (Bears were 1-10 in 2001) and promptly went 7-5 in that season, which included a 46-22 win at East Lansing vs Michigan State. He's taken the school to five consecutive bowl games since and owns a 50-26 SU mark in his six years at Berkeley. Most remember that Cal got off to a 5-0 start in '07, rising to No.2 in the AP poll but then suffered a "free-fall," going 1-6 SU (0-7 ATS), before ending the season with a dramatic come-from-behind 42-36 win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. Nate Longshore has been replaced at QB by the more athletic Kevin Riley and I'm in favor of the move, although Tedford DID NOT consult me. Forsett and his 1,546 rushing yards (5.1 YPC / 15 TDs) are gone but watch out for Jahvid Best, who averaged 7.6 YPC as a freshman (just 29 carries for 221 yards). Cal's "D" returns eight starters and while the offense will have eight new starters, Tedford's "in the offensive business!" Cal has two road games up next (at Washington State and Maryland), so getting a win here is a MAJOR priority, especially with the team's "fall from grace" at the end of last year. As for MSU, the Spartans probably wish their schedule opened with home games vs Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic (the team's next two opponents), rather than playing Cal first. Bailout Game of the Month 15* Cal.

Good Luck...Larry