9-1-08

[timbob]

Ben Burns Main Event-

Fresno St./Rutgers Over the total

[timbob]

AL

At 4:10pm our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total. It's hard to imagine that multiple-Cy Young winner and certain future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson could be in need of anything these days. But the fact is that the 6'10" veteran lefthander is very much in the need of some run support right now. Despite pitching perhaps better than he has all season, Johnson is winless in his last three starts, and the Diamondbacks have lost four of his last five trips to the mound dating back to the beginning of August. During these five games, the D-Backs have only scored a total of 12 runs and they were shut out in two of the contests. And Johnson has a superb 2.88 ERA in those 5 games, and has struck out 41 in 34 1/3 innings! Righty Joel Pineiro has been in the league for almost 10 years now, and even though he has spent most of the last two seaons in the NL (and had Interleague starts before that), Pineiro has never faced the Diamondbacks before today. Pineiro has been pitching much better recently. In his last three starts for the Cards, he's 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA, and he looks to extend that win streak this afternoon in what is going to be the beginning of a very important series for both of these teams. Arizona and St. Louis are both locked in race for the post-season, and the D-Backs just bettered their team by acquiring shortstop David Eckstein from the Toronto Blue Jays. Coincidentally, if Eckstein is in uniform today, he will be facing the team that he won a World Series MVP with in 2006 (and his second Series ring). Five of Arizona's last seven home games have gone a total of eight or fewer runs, and 17 of St. Louis' road games vs. lefties have gone 'under'. Look for a low-scoring game this afternoon. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Personal Favorite

Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

root chair-ucla
mill-mil

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
I'm taking the points with UCLA. The Volunteers will be facing a Pac-10 team to begin the season for the third time in the past three years. Two years ago, they hosted Cal. Playing in the comfort of their own (noisy) stadium, the Vols jumped off to a huge early lead and coasted to a 35-18 victory. Last season, however, the Vols traveled to the West Coast. They found things much tougher on the road, as this time the Bears returned the favor with a convincing double-digit win of their own. The Vols are back on the West Coast for this year's opener and most are calling for an easy win. That's given us excellent value with what I expect to be a very determined home underdog. Yes, it's true that Tennessee is the more experienced team and it's also true that UCLA has already lost both Ben Olson and Pat Cowan to injuries. This team is still got plenty of talent though, more than most give them credit for. Additionally, those QB injuries happened way back in the spring which has given Kevin Craft and Chris Forcier plenty of time to work with the offense. While they've often struggled as favorites, the Bruins have been terrific as underdogs in recent years. In fact, they've gone a remarkable 15-1-1 ATS the past 17 times they were getting points. They've also gone an excellent 9-1 their last 10 home openers, including a 4-1 mark against BCS schools. Of course, this is a different team with different coaches. However, this is a very high quality group of coaches. Not only does Rick Neuheisel take over from Karl Dorrell but he's also got arguably the best set of coordinators in all of college. DeWayne Walker is back as defensive coordinator and he's done a great job. Meanwhile, back from the NFL, Norm Chow comes in to run the offense and he's had an outstanding collegiate career as an offensive coordinator. Indeed, he's coached 13 quarterbacks who rank among the top 30 in NCAA history for single-season passing yardage. It should also be noted that Neuheisel has done a very good job when he's first arrived at a school, showing that he's capable of getting through to players which were brought in before he got to the team. In fact, in stops at Colorado and Washington, those teams went a combined 38-10 in Neuheisel's first two years! Look for Neuheisel's Bruins to be much better expected tonight, as the Vols fall to 4-8-1 ATS their last 13 September road games. *Annihilator

[timbob]

Larry Ness' 15* Situational GOW (won 12 of L17 MLB weeks / 87-58 since June 30)-Day
My 15* play is on the Mil Brewers at 2:05 ET. The Mets and Brewers meet in a three-game series at Miller Park. The Mets are 76-61 while the Brewers are 80-56 but it's the Mets who lead their division (by one game over the Phils) while the Brewers find themselves 4 1/2 games back of the Cubs in theirs. However, the Brewers do lead the wild card race by 4 1/2 games. Squaring off are two of the NL's top pitchers, Santana for New York and Sheets for Milwaukee. Recently, Santana's been the better pitcher. These two pitchers squared off way back on April 12 in Shea and Santana was "booed off the mound" but New York fans, as the Brewers beat the Mets, 5-3 (Santana allowed three HRs and four runs in 6.2 IP). Santana's pitched solidly all season for the Mets, although through the first three months of the season he was just 7-7 with a 3.01 ERA. He's really been tough over his last 10 starts though, despite being the victim of three blown leads by the Mets' bullpen during that span. He's 5-0 (team is 8-2) with a 2.24 ERA since July 9. As for Sheets, he has not been the same pitcher since the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia from the Indians. While Sabathia has gone 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA over his 11 starts with Milwaukee (team is 10-1), Sheets has been pretty mediocre. Sheets was 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 17 starts (team was 12-5) prior to the team getting Sabathia but since then, is just 2-5 with a 3.63 ERA over nine starts (team is 4-5). However, one can't ignore the fact that the Mets are a mediocre 35-36 on the road this year, while the Brewers are once again playing well at home (Milwaukee was 99-63 at home the last two seasons), going 41-24. More importantly for this game, the Brewers have been just terrific vs lefties in '08, going 31-14. That includes a 14-3 mark in day games vs lefties, going 9-2 vs lefties in home day games while averaging 7.2 RPG. Situational GOW 15* Mil Brewers.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner (14-7 since June 17)-Total
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on SD/LAD Over at 8:10 ET. Greg Maddux will face the Padres for the first time since they sent him to the Dodgers, giving the future Hall of Famer a shot at another postseason opportunity. That be said, don't expect the Padres to "lie down" for their ex-teammate, as there is surely no love lost between San Diego and LA. Now the Padres only hit .248 as a team, while averaging 3.88 RPG. However, a "typical" road game for the Padres in '08 has them averaging 4.18 RPG and their opponent averaging 5.45 RPG. That's an average of just over 9 1/2 runs per contest and why the Padres are actually 33-29-3 to the 'over' in road games this year. Maddux has pitched well in Petco Park this year with a 2.62 ERA but in 14 starts in any other big league stadium (14 in all, including starts for LA at Philly and Washington), Maddux has allowed 107 hits and 52 ERs over 78.1 innings for a 5.98 ERA. As for the Padres, they plan to activate Chris Young (4-4, 4.74 ERA) from the DL and give him his first start since a 16-7 win at Coors Field on August 10. He was 'ripped' for seven ERs and nine hits before leaving after four innings with a strained right forearm, which landed him on the DL. The man who last year allowed only 118 hits in 173 IP, has allowed 39 hits in 35.1 innings of seven road starts in '08, posting a 7.13 ERA. It's also worth noting that in three starts in Dodger Stadium the last two seasons, he's lasted only 11 innings, while allowing 21 hits and 12 ERs (9.82 ERA). There is no reason for this game to stay under the opening total of 7 1/2. Weekly Wipeout Winner on SD/LAD Over.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Prime Time Delight-Tenn/UCLA (6-1 start in CFB '08!)
My Prime Time Delight is on UCLA at 8:00 ET. Rick Neuheisel's head coaching debut at his alma mater has been surrounded by a series of injuries. His top-two QBs (Olson and Cowan) were lost in the off-season and his banged-up OL made the team's preseason camp look more like a MASH unit. As for Tennessee, the Vols come in off a 10-4 season in '07 but the '08 year ushers in the "Jonathan Crompton era." The junior QB takes over from Erik Ainge. He'll have a new OC, as David Cutcliffe has moved on. Taking over his former Richmond head coach, Dave Clawson. Crompton has the size and arm strength plus as always with Tennessee, he'll have some big- time talent at the WR position. Lucas Taylor had 73 catches for 1,000 yards and five TDs last season, while Austin Rogers and Josh Briscoe each added 56 catches (and a combined 10 TDs). All five starters return on the OL to complement TB Arian Foster, who ran for 1,193 yards (4.9 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last year. The Vols averaged 32.5 PPG and 401.5 YPG last year and may be better this year. However, the defense is not better and LY the team struggled, allowing 27.3 PPG, overall. In just five road games, the Vols were downright awful, allowing 43.2 PPG and 487.4 YPG. While the Bruins are far from 100 percent on the offensive side of the ball, Neuheisel has brought in Norman Chow as his OC and everyone remembers this guy from USC's recent "heyday." Kevin Craft will start at QB, a player who transferred from SD St and started five games for the Aztecs in '06. UCLA returns just five starters on the defensive side of the ball but the Bruins have played solidly the last two seasons. Last year, the team allowed only 285 YPG at home (116 YPG less than it did on the road) and maybe that's why UCLA is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS at home the last three seasons. UCLA has been a terrific underdog the last two years, going 10-1 in that role (has covered its last 10!). As a head coach, Neuheisel has always been good in the role of an underdog and there is no reason to think that will change here at UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 the last five years as a home dog, including that memorable 13-9 (plus-11 1/2) upset over USC in the final game of the 2006 regular season. I wouldn't be surprised to see UCLA win this one SU, either. Prime Time Delight on UCLA.

Good Luck....Larry

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm playing on Fresno State and Rutgers to finish OVER the total. Thus far, I've released two 'overs' and two 'unders' for the college football season. In both of the 'overs,' I noted that the total had fallen considerably from its opening number and that the extra few points were providing us with excellent value. Coincidentally, both those games happened to be ones which saw their final combined score finish above the closing number but below the opening one. Not only did we cash both tickets but it also provided a pair of early examples/reminders of the importance of line value, not just with sides but also with totals. Like most of the opening week totals, this one has also come down from it's opening number. As with the earlier two over plays, I feel this has provided us with excellent value for a game which I expect to be very high-scoring. Pat Hill's Bulldogs are an extremely experienced team and many are calling for them to score the upset here. While I'm not sure whether or not that will prove to be the case, I do expect the Bulldogs to score plenty of points. Looking back to last year and we find that the Bulldogs closed out the year by scoring 49, 37, 30, 21, 38, 30, 45, 30 and 40 points (40-28 win in their bowl game) over their past nine games. That's greater than 35.5 points per game, reaching the 30 mark in eight of those nine games. Why am I talking about last year's offense? Because this year's unit is almost identical with a whopping 10 returning offensive starters. Greg Schiano's Scarlet Knights also know how to put the ball in the end zone. Yes, Ray Rice is gone and he had an outstanding career here. However, QB Mike Teel returns and he's loaded with receiving weapons. Keep in mind that Teel helped led the Knights to almost 450 yards of total offense per game last season, the 18th best mark in the nation. The Knights closed out the regular season by combining with Louisville for 79 points and then proceeded to combine with Ball State for 82 (52-30!) in their bowl victory. Rutgers has seen the OVER go 4-1-1 the last six times it was favored by six points or less. Fresno has seen the OVER go 6-2 the last eight times it was listed as an underdog of six points or less and 10-4 the last 14 times it was getting points overall. Look for those numbers to improve as this one turns into a shootout. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

LANG

MONDAY

15 Dime - Fresno State

5 Dime - Tennessee/UCLA Under

Free - Red Sox -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

RUTGERS (-5.5) 30 Fresno St. 28
01:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-01 -

Stats Matchup
Fresno State has been getting plenty of attention heading into this season as the non-BCS conference team that could make it to a BCS bowl after conference mates Boise State and Hawaii succeeded in doing so the last two seasons. I think the people touting Fresno State as a potential BCS buster are overlooking the fact that the Bulldogs continue to have defensive issues stopping the run – something that has plagued them in each of the last 5 seasons. Fresno has a very strong offensive unit, but it will take a good defense to get through Rutgers, Wisconsin, UCLA and Boise State unscathed. Fresno State had some injuries along the defensive line that led were partially to blame for their horrible run defense last season (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), but the Bulldogs allowed a combined 646 rushing yards at 6.0 yprp in weeks 2 and 3 before the injuries hit the defensive front. Texas A&M and Oregon would combine to average 6.2 yprp at home against an average team, so allowing those teams 6.0 yprp is actually decent. However, the graduation of WAC Defensive Player of the Year LB Marcus Riley and two of the defensive linemen that played those first few games last season makes it doubtful that Fresno will be even mediocre against the run this season. In fact, I project the Bulldogs to be 0.5 yprp worse than average defending the run, which is about what they’ve averaged over the last 5 seasons. While Fresno has struggled against the run, they do have a history of very good pass defense and I expect that to be the case this season with 3 of 4 defensive backfield starters returning and what should be another good pass rush. Overall, I rate the Bulldogs’ defense as average on a yards per play basis and they should pick off more passes than the national low total of 4 interceptions that they had last season.

Fresno’s defense doesn’t have to be too good when the Bulldogs have an offense that is loaded with talent at every position group. Tom Brandstater came into his own the second half of last season and ended the season with a very good 7.2 yards per pass play average (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average team). Brandstater should be even better this season with all of his top receivers back and the addition of 2006 top receiver Chastain West. Brandstater also has the benefit of having a great rushing attack to keep the pressure off of him, as the Bulldogs ran for 5.3 yprp last season (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) and should be even better this season with a more experienced offensive line and their top rusher back. Clifton Smith has moved on after running for 625 yards at 6.0 ypr, but Ryan Matthews ran for 866 yards at 6.0 ypr despite missing a few games. Fresno State will be a force offensively this season and Brandstater also does an excellent job of limiting his mistakes (just 5 interceptions last season).

What really made Fresno better than their stats was their special teams, which was the best in the nation last season once A.J. Jefferson took over kick return duties in game 4. Jefferson averaged 35.8 yards on his 26 kick off returns with 2 touchdowns. I doubt that he can duplicate those huge numbers and it will also be tough to average the 14.4 yards per punt return turned in by the departed Clifton Smith. Replacing the mediocre kicker and sub-par punter from last season shouldn’t be much of a task and Fresno should still rank among the best in the nation in special teams.

Fresno State has a great offense and very good special teams, but their soft run defense will likely cost them a couple of games (how do they beat Rutgers or Wisconsin with a bad run defense??) early in the season to end talk of a possible BCS game.

Rutgers went from 11-2 in 2006 to a disappointing 8-5 last season but they weren’t too much worse in reality. The 2006 Scarlet Knights were +11 in turnovers while the 2007 team was -6 in turnovers, which accounted for most of the difference. Aside from suddenly not being able to force turnovers (only 19 opponent’s turnovers compared to 31 in 2006), the Scarlet Knights had one other fatal flaw in 2007 – they couldn’t stop the run. Rutgers stuffed the run in 2006 (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team), but the Scarlet Knights surrendered 5.2 yprp in 2007 (against teams that would average 4.7 yprp). Rutgers continued their dominance against the pass (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), but their overall defense was just 0.4 yards per play better than average last season. Rutgers doesn’t really have a defensive tackle that clog running lanes and their defensive starters average just 255 pounds, so I expect the Knights to continue to have trouble against the run. The secondary, however, returns 3 of 4 starters, including both cornerbacks, and they should be a dominant group once again. In fact, I think Rutgers will be even better against the pass this season than they’ve been the last two years and I rate the Knights at 0.7 yppl better than average defensively this season while they’ll most likely force more turnovers.

Rutgers will be without All-American RB Ray Rice, who ran for 2012 yards at 5.3 ypr last season. There doesn’t appear to be a back capable of filling Rice’s shoes and the offensive line doesn’t look quite as good, so I’ll call for below average rushing numbers for the Scarlet Knights this season. The good news about not having Rice to carry the ball is that the offense will probably throw the ball more often. Mike Teel averaged an incredible 8.7 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and this top 4 receivers all return, including stars Tiquan Underwood (1100 yards at 16.9 ypc) and Kenny Britt (1232 yards at 19.9 ypc). Teel and company simply dominated bad pass defenses last season, so Rutgers’ passing numbers were inflated. However, Teel still averaged 7.4 yppp from week 5 on (the start of Big East play) against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB – so he still had an incredible season. Teel still threw too many interceptions (13 on 349 pass attempts, 3.7%), but he also was sacked only 7 times all season for the second straight year. Teel should continue to improve and Rutgers will have one of the best pass attacks in the nation again this season.

Rutgers has some issues on special teams, but they are a pretty good team overall that could become a very good team if the coaching staff can find a way to defend the run like they did in 2006. Rutgers looks like a top 25 team to me and I rate them 3rd in the Big East just ahead of Pitt.

My ratings favor Rutgers by 4 ½ points in this game, which is right around the number, but Fresno State is 27-8 ATS as an underdog in non-conference play, including 20-4 ATS as a dog of 5 points or more. I’ll favor the Bulldogs to cover based on that incredible team trend.