9-3-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* Getaway Day GOM
mil brewers

[Mr. IWS]

Lang:

10 dimes Cubs Run Line
Free: Wash Nationals

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

getaway Day Gom

Seattle Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

12:05PM ET MLB 4* Best Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians UNDER 10.0 (-115)

2:05PM ET MLB 4* Best Seattle Mariners (-113) vs Texas Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Roots plays today...

Chairman- A's
Millionaire- Tigers
Billionaire- Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (won 12 of L17 MLB weeks!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the TB rays at 7:05 ET. The Rays have made a HUGE turnaround this year, as with less than a month to go in the '08 season, the team which has finished last in its division in NINE of its first 10 seasons, leads the AL East with an 84-52 record. The Rays lead the defending champs (Red Sox) by four games and are up by 11 games over the Yankees, who have been to 13 consecutive postseasons. No pitcher on this team, which ranks second in all of MLB with an ERA of 3.67, has made a bigger turnaround than Edwin Jackson. Jackson was a bust in LA (with both the Angels and Dodgers) and last year went 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA for the Rays. Tampa went 8-23 (minus-$1,101) in his starts, ranking him in the top-10 (or bottom-10, if you will?) as one of MLB's biggest "money-burners." However, Jackson takes an 11-8 (3.81 ERA) mark into this game, as the Rays are 15-11 (plus-$467) in his 26 starts in '08. He's 6-1 over his last seven starts, posting a 2.79 ERA. He'll be opposed by Carl Pavano, who has made a spectacular return to the Yankee's rotation. Pavano made his first start this year on August 23 at Baltimore, which was only his fourth start since July of 2005. He's 2-0 with 3.27 ERA after a win last Friday over the Blue Jays and hopes to continue his surprising effectiveness tonight. However, let's note that the Yankees are hitting just .274 this year (led MLB last year at .290) and are averaging only 4.9 RPG (led MLB last year at 6.0 per). They are a mediocre 17-14 in night road games vs right-handers in '08, averaging just over four runs per game. Meanwhile, the Rays are 52-20 at home, making more money (plus-$2,267) than any team in MLB in their home park. Tampa is 37-12 at home vs right-handed starters and I just don't believe Pavano "can keep it up!" What a bargain of a price on the Rays at home! Oddsmaker's Error on the TB Rays.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (46-27 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue jays at 7:05 ET. Are the Twins starting feel some real fatigue from their 14-game road trip (began back on August 21)? Minnesota led 5-1 last night in Toronto after four innings, but Toronto came back to win 7-5. The loss dropped the Twins to 5-7 on their road trip, with the seven losses coming by a combined total of just 11 runs. The team's bullpen (like last night), has been responsible for five of those losses. The Blue Jays are going nowhere in the top-heavy AL East with their 71-66 record but they are 38-29 here at home and have now beaten the Twins in all four 2008 meetings, as well as owning SEVEN straight wins over the Twins, going back into last year. While the Twins are a dominating 46-23 at home in '08, the team is a less than spectacular 31-38 on the road, allowing opponents to average 5.26 RPG. I felt the Twins had a solid starting pitcher edge last night (Perkins over Purcey) and I was sure right about Purcey, who allowed seven hits and five ERs in just three innings. However, Perkins tired and then Bonser (what kind of a name is Boof?) allowed a two-run HR. Tonight, the pitching matchup clearly favors Toronto and I'm willing to admit that the Twins may have trouble winning ANY of these games vs Toronto. Rookie Nick Blackburn is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA over his last four outings, with the Twins dropping all four games. He's 9-8 with a 3.75 ERA on the year but he's really had much more success at home. The Twins are 8-4 in his starts in the Metrodome (2.95 ERA) but just 5-10 in his road starts, where his ERA is 4.47. As for Burnett, he already owns a single-season high in wins, at 16-10 (4.48 ERA). Burnett's season turned around on the Sunday before the All Star break, He was asked to start on three days rest for the only time in his career on July 13 and beat the Yankees that day, 4-1. He went 8.1 innings, allowing six hits, one ER and struck out eight. That jump-started an eight-start stretch in which he went 7-1 with a 2.64 ERA. He did not pitch very well at home vs Boston on Aug 24 (got a no decision in a 6-5 loss) but had an excellent start in his last outing, going eight innings while allowing seven hits and two ERs in a 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium last Friday. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

SCOTT SPREITZER SCOTT'S AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK! I'm laying the price with the Rays and Jackson over the Yankees and Pavano. Tampa's win streak was broken last night, but they're right back at it with Yankee-killer Edwin Jackson on Wednesday. The righthander has faced the Yanks on four occasions this season alone, allowing only seven earned runs and 29 base runners in 24 1/3 innings pitched. That's a strong 2.59 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP, to go along with a .222 BAA! He'll face a Yankee lineup that averages just over four runs per game in road night games against righthanders. New York counters with Carl Pavano who will make his third start of the season. The veteran righty pitched well at home last time out, but was mediocre in his one road start on August 23. The Rays are used to winning in home night games against righthanders, now 30-9 on the season. They faced the ultra-tough Mike Mussina last night. On Wednesday, the competition drops a notch and Tampa Bay will be up to the task. The Rays are my AL Game of the Week. Thanks! GL! Scott.