9-5-08

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: 4* HOUSTON

Has anyone ever played as well for as long of a stretch at these Astros without generating any market adjustments at all? Tonight’s line tells us that. The current Houston run is at 27-10, and in truth the quality of baseball has been even better than that. No team in the Major League’s has played a more difficult schedule in that span, and they have gone an impressive 17-8 against the Cubs, Brewers, Mets and Cardinals. Since August 1st they have only played 11 games against teams that are currently under .500, but they went 10-1 ion those games, out-scoring the opposition by 35 runs.

Yet here we find them tonight against a losing team, taking a big price. It shows us market mistakes in two directions – first in not acknowledging just how good the Astros have been, and also in not recognizing how much Ubaldo Jimenez has fallen off the table. At 167.2 innings, more than double what he worked LY, Jimenez would be a prime candidate for hitting “The Wall”, and he has. Over his last five starts he has worked to a 1-3/7.36, with a 1.99 WHIP that tells us that the base numbers are not a fluke. He did not last beyond the sixth inning in any of those games, and that is despite going up against some weak competition – like the Reds and Nationals from this mound, and the Padres in Petco Park. He has labored to the tune of nine walks in 9.2 frames over his last two starts, and could easily get worse before bottoming out.

Houston counters with the under-rated Brian Moehler, who has worked to a 10-5/3.83 as a starter, with the Astros going 14-7 when he has taken the hill in that role. And in terms of competition, Moehler has started wins over the Red Sox, Cubs (twice), Brewers, Phillies and Cardinals (twice). In no way should he be an underdog of this much, and with the Houston bullpen rested and ready behind him, the latter stages are in good hands as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo:

Ball St.... 2 Units

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners 5* CFL play is OVER in the Navy\Ball St game.

[timbob]

Analyst: Bobby Esposito
20,000 Dime WInner #2 In A Row


College Football

20,000 Dime - Ball St. -7.5 over Navy

Baseball

5000 Dime - N.Y.M. -130 over Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

BOB BALFE

Major League Baseball
Indians -140 over Royals
Reyes/Duckworth
_________________

[Mr. IWS]

indian cowboy

Pass on Football, 1 WNBA Play Today.

Chicago Sky (+9.5) (POD)

Based on my handicapping, it would make no sense for me not to take the Sky here. This was the same team that won as outright dogs at New York (similar margin of a dog to Conn here but just smaller around 7 to 8 points), won outright at Washington, won outright at home against Detroit and recently lost at home to Seattle. So what? Seattle is a solid team with the likes of Sue Bird and Swin Cash. Chicago has beaten the Sky once already this year outright at home and the previous 2 times have lost by margins of 7 and 2. Who is to say the Sky can't be competitive here coming off a tough loss at home as they look to bounce-back? Worried about the Sky playing back to back? Well, they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 ballgames with 0 days rest and 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss while the Sun face a tough feat at home meeting the high demands of being a public favorite in the eyes of Vegas as they are 3-9 ATS at home.

Research that went into this game:

Note, that Connecticut is a big favorite over Chicago today, but the question begs does the Sky really need to be nearly 10 point dogs on the road. After all, this is the same team that beat Detroit at home, Washington on the road and New York on the road Outright. Sure, they lost to Seattle at home but Seattle is a solid team. Furthermore, Chicago is a great bounce-back team as their ATS results over the past 10 games looks as well L, W, W, W, L, L, W, W, W, W. Notice a trend? This team is 7-3 ATS of late and the only time they lost back to back ATS ballgames was at San Antonio and at Houston in back to back ballgames which is tough for any team. Chicago has never done worse than lose by 7 to the Sun, including a 2 point loss and winning outright once earlier this year.
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Nsa 20* Navy

[timbob]

The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, September 05, 2008
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5000 LARGE DIAMOND BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Buehrle -160 8:10 EST