9-7-08

[timbob]

Dr Bob Sun NFL (strong opinion)
.
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) 21 Houston 20 10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-07

Houston has gone from 2-14 in 2005 to 6-10 in 2006 and then to 8-8 last season, and I expect the Texans to continue to make strides this season thanks to an improved defense. The Texans defense rated at 0.4 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team – not including their week 17 game in which Jacksonville rested their starters), but the season ending injury to top CB Dunta Robinson actually led to improvement after a horrible first half of the season. It wasn’t that Robinson was playing poorly, as he was playing pretty well, but his injury allowed rookie CB Fred Bennett to enter the starting lineup and Bennett was unbelievably good. Bennett started the final 8 games after Robinson was injured and he allowed a league best 4.8 yards per pass thrown his direction while breaking up 17 passes, including 15 in his 8 starts. Those are incredible numbers for a cornerback and the Texans were actually 0.2 yards per pass play better than average defensively from week 9 on with Bennett in the lineup, after being 0.7 yppp worse than average the first half of the season. Part of the credit for the improved pass defensive also goes to former #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams, who had 10 sacks in the final 7 games of the season after a year and a half of disappointing results. The Texans are loaded with young talent defensively and I expect them to be a better than average defensive team with CB Jacques Reeves being signed away from Dallas to play the cornerback spot opposite Bennett, which takes Demarcus Faggins and his 8.9 yards per pass attempted against him out of the lineup (Reeves allowed 7.7 ypa at Dallas last season).

With the defense picking up where they left off the second half of last season, the Texans should be a good team given that they’re offense was already better than average. Houston averaged 5.6 yppl last season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team (excluding their week 17 game against Jacksonville’s backups) despite being without star WR Andre Johnson for 7 games. Johnson averaged 9.9 yards per pass thrown to him last season and the Texans would have been 0.2 yppl better had he played the entire season. Quarterbacks Matt Schaub and backup Sage Rosenfels both had very good seasons last year and should do so again, while the rushing attack should be improved with the new blocking schemes of offensive line guru Alex Gibbs, who coached the successful lines at Denver before having success with his zone blocking technique in Atlanta from 2004 through 2006 (Atlanta’s line was horrible without him last season). Gibbs was lured out of his one year retirement and the Texans should have better results in the rushing numbers, which were pretty bad last season (3.8 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team).

Houston had the 3rd best special teams in the league last season thanks to kick returner Andre Davis and his 30.3 yards per return and 3 TD’s. I don’t expect Davis to keep up that pace, but the Texans should still be solidly better than average in special teams. Overall, the Texans should continue to improve and are certainly a playoff caliber team. The only problem is a tough division in which the other 3 teams all won 10 games or more last season.

Pittsburgh continues to be among the best handful of defensive teams in the NFL, but the Steelers are getting gradually worse offensively as their once dominant offensive line slowly deteriorates. Pittsburgh wasn’t as good running the ball last season (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) and the Steelers’ line allowed quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to get sacked 53 times in 16 games. The loss of star G Alan Faneca to the Jets in free agency makes the line worse this season, so the Steelers could once again be worse than average offensively after averaging just 5.3 yards per play last season (excluding the meaningless week 17 game in which the starters didn’t play) against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Despite the loss of Faneca I expect the rushing attack to be better with rookie RB Rashard Mendehall giving starting back Willie Parker more rest, allowing both back to stay fresh. Ben Roethlisberger was actually below average last season, averaging 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB, but he was 0.4 yppp better than average in 2006 and should improve on last season’s numbers.

Pittsburgh’s defense had a great 2007 campaign, allowing 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Nothing has really changed for Pittsburgh’s defense this season, so I expect another very good unit in 2008. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been poor the last couple of seasons, but the punt return unit should be better with Eddie Drummond running them back. Still, kicker Jeff Reed doesn’t get good distance on his kickoffs and the coverage units haven’t been very good. Pittsburgh should be as bad in special teams as they’ve been the last two seasons, but they should be below average.

Overall the Steelers appear to be a solid team once again, but Houston is an underrated squad if their talented young defense plays at the same level that they played over the second half of 2007. My math model would have only favored Pittsburgh by 5 ½ points using last season’s stats for both teams, but Houston is a better team now than they were on average last season and my ratings favor the Steelers by only 3 points. Aside from the line value the Texans also apply to a decent 92-61-4 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

[timbob]

Ben Burns

Early Blowout - Tenn + 3

Main Event -- Chicago + 10 -115

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins plus the points over the Jets. Both teams will be fielding new signal-callers in this opening game. Brett Favre, of course, will be behind center for the Flyboys, while the Dolphins will be led by ex-Jet QB Chad Pennington. Last year, Miami suffered thru one of the worst seasons in NFL history, as it recorded just one victory against 15 defeats. And that's the key to our wager. Over the past 25 years, there have been eight teams that have failed to win two games. All eight of those teams covered the spread in Week 1 the following season, with six of the eight winning outright as underdogs. Let's take a look at the last five times this system popped. In 1991, the Patriots upset the Colts 16-7 as 9-point dogs after going 1-15 the year before. Then, in 1992, the Colts upset the Ravens 14-3 as 5-point dogs, after going 1-15 the previous season. In 1997, the Jets upset the Seahawks 41-3 as 6-point dogs, after a 1-15 record in 1996. Then, in 2001, the Chargers were actually favored by 2.5 in their opening game vs. Washington after going 1-15 in 2000, and the Chargers won 30-3. The last time this system was active was six years ago, and Carolina upset Baltimore 10-7 as 2-point dogs. What's interesting to note, other than that this system is a perfect 8-0 since 1983, is that the last five times our team has held its opponent to seven points or less! The average final score for those five games was 22-4, with the average pointspread being +4 points. Look for another upset on Sunday. AFC East Game of the Year on the Dolphins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burn's Shocker of the Year is on Houston

[timbob]

THESE COMPS



Ben Burns

Game: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Under

The 'under' has been a profitable proposition in the opening week of the regular season in recent years. Two years ago, 12 of 16 games stayed below the total in Week 1. Last season, 11 of the 16 opening week games finished below the total. That's a combined mark of 23-9, which is a healthy 72%. Arizona at San Francisco was one of last season's Week 1 games which stayed below the total. The 49'ers scored the winning touchdown with 22 seconds remaining but that still only brought the final score to 20-17. Including that result, the UNDER was 6-2 in San Francisco's home games last season and 11-5 in their 16 games overall. That's no big surprise as the 2007 49'ers averaged a mere 13.7 points per game. With Mike Martz brought in to oversee the offense, this year's team should score more points. However, that won't necessarily happen immediately. Let's take a closer look at some situational stats.

The 49'ers, who are currently listed as slight underdogs, have seen the UNDER go 9-2 the last 11 times they were underdogs of four points or less. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 11-6 the last 17 times that they were favored by four points or less. The over/under line is currently listed at either 41.5 or 42. That's worth mentioning as the UNDER is 13-5 the last 18 times that the 49'ers played a game with a total ranging from 35.5 to 42 and an even better 10-1 when the Cardinals have done so. Looking a little more closely and we find the UNDER at 6-1 when the 49'ers have played a home game with a total ranging from 38 to 42 and 4-1 when the Cardinals have played a road game with a total in that range. Don't be surprised if this one also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. At 41 or better, consider the UNDER




Larry Ness

CAR +9.5 vs SDC

Norv Turner quieted all his critics, who were 'howling' after his Chargers opened the '07 season 0-3. Marty had basically been dumped after another string of playoff failures but San Diego has much talent as any team in the NFL and a 1-3 start was unacceptable. However, Turner and his team "hung in there" and beginning with a 41-3 win at Denver in Week 5, won 10 of its final 12 regular season games (10-2 ATS). Then despite injuries to LT, Gates and Rivers, Turner's Chargers did what Marty's couldn't. That is win in the playoffs. San Diego beat the Titans 17-6 in the wild card round, upset the Colts in Indy 28-24 and hung tough all game at New England in the AFC title game, before losing 21-13. The Panthers were expected to compete for the NFC South title but when Delhomme went down in the team's third game, the season was all but over. Delhomme wound up with Tommy John surgery but he's seems to be fine and let's remember he had eight TDs and just one INT (64%) before getting hurt last year. WR Steve Smith is serving a suspension in this game but Fox has this team thinking "run-first" this year. DeAngelo Williams is a talented back and Oregon rookie Jonathan Stewart looks good (Foster is long gone). The OL is totally changed (new players or new positions for old ones) but expected to be good. The Panthers hope to return to the swarming, punishing defense they displayed en route to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and the NFC championship game in 2005. They were second and third in the league in yards allowed in those two seasons, but have been middle-of-the-pack the last two years. DE Julius Peppers is in his contract year and expect Carolina's defense to be much better in '08. LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a league-best 1,474 yards and 15 TDs in the 2007 regular season but took more than just a little criticism after being limited to just four plays in the playoff loss to New England because of a sprained knee. It didn't help his rep that QB Philip Rivers limped through the postseason with a significantly more damaged knee ligament (had off-season surgery). However, LT is the league's best back and don't expect any "carry over" to this year. TE Gates is still being bothered by an injured toe and center Hardwick will miss with a foot injury. WR Chris Chambers was a great mid-season pickup from Miami and he'll get a full season with the Chargers in '08. The Chargers have plenty of talent on D but somewhat underachieved last year in terms of yards allowed. However, they were No. 1 with 48 takeaways (30 INTs), which made up for it. LB Shawne Merriman has decided to play the season on two injured knee ligaments and fellow LB Cooper is serving a suspension, neither of which is good news. The Chargers were 8-1 SU and ATS at home LY (including the postseason) but Carolina is 23-10-2 as a rod dog under Fox, with the team going 22-5 ATS as a dog in games started by Delhomme. This is a HUGE pointspread and I'm taking the points with the Panthers.

[timbob]

Larry Ness

CAR +9.5 vs SDC

Norv Turner quieted all his critics, who were 'howling' after his Chargers opened the '07 season 0-3. Marty had basically been dumped after another string of playoff failures but San Diego has much talent as any team in the NFL and a 1-3 start was unacceptable. However, Turner and his team "hung in there" and beginning with a 41-3 win at Denver in Week 5, won 10 of its final 12 regular season games (10-2 ATS). Then despite injuries to LT, Gates and Rivers, Turner's Chargers did what Marty's couldn't. That is win in the playoffs. San Diego beat the Titans 17-6 in the wild card round, upset the Colts in Indy 28-24 and hung tough all game at New England in the AFC title game, before losing 21-13. The Panthers were expected to compete for the NFC South title but when Delhomme went down in the team's third game, the season was all but over. Delhomme wound up with Tommy John surgery but he's seems to be fine and let's remember he had eight TDs and just one INT (64%) before getting hurt last year. WR Steve Smith is serving a suspension in this game but Fox has this team thinking "run-first" this year. DeAngelo Williams is a talented back and Oregon rookie Jonathan Stewart looks good (Foster is long gone). The OL is totally changed (new players or new positions for old ones) but expected to be good. The Panthers hope to return to the swarming, punishing defense they displayed en route to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and the NFC championship game in 2005. They were second and third in the league in yards allowed in those two seasons, but have been middle-of-the-pack the last two years. DE Julius Peppers is in his contract year and expect Carolina's defense to be much better in '08. LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a league-best 1,474 yards and 15 TDs in the 2007 regular season but took more than just a little criticism after being limited to just four plays in the playoff loss to New England because of a sprained knee. It didn't help his rep that QB Philip Rivers limped through the postseason with a significantly more damaged knee ligament (had off-season surgery). However, LT is the league's best back and don't expect any "carry over" to this year. TE Gates is still being bothered by an injured toe and center Hardwick will miss with a foot injury. WR Chris Chambers was a great mid-season pickup from Miami and he'll get a full season with the Chargers in '08. The Chargers have plenty of talent on D but somewhat underachieved last year in terms of yards allowed. However, they were No. 1 with 48 takeaways (30 INTs), which made up for it. LB Shawne Merriman has decided to play the season on two injured knee ligaments and fellow LB Cooper is serving a suspension, neither of which is good news. The Chargers were 8-1 SU and ATS at home LY (including the postseason) but Carolina is 23-10-2 as a rod dog under Fox, with the team going 22-5 ATS as a dog in games started by Delhomme. This is a HUGE pointspread and I'm taking the points with the Panthers.

[timbob]

Wayne Root

Chairman - Bills
Millionaire - Browns
No Limit - Dolphins
Insider - Titans
Moneymaker - Saints

[Mr. IWS]

ppp

4* Pitt over
3* N.E. under
3* Tenn under
3* Atlanta under
3* San Fran. over

[timbob]

SCOTT SPREITZER

insider lions
ko bears
tko shocker browns
tko ariz
tko houston
5* total cincy under

[Mr. IWS]

SCOTT SPREITZER

insider lions
ko bears
tko shocker browns
tko ariz
tko houston
5* total cincy under

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman - Bills
Millionaire - Browns
No Limit - Dolphins
Insider - Titans
Moneymaker - Saints

[shumd]

lang if u can thanks he has been hot

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Sunday NFL

Week 1 15* Total of the Week

What could be more perfect than the Jets and Dolphins opening the '08 season. Bill Parcells (former Jets coach) is now the GM in Miami and of course, Brett Favre was signed by the Jets right before the opening of the preseason and that very same day the Jets released their starting QB Chad Pennington. Parcells wasted no time signing Pennington (who he drafted) and immediately named him as Miami's starting QB. As everyone knows, the Dolphins almost "lost them all" last year, going 1-15. It won't be a "quick fix" for these Dolphins, who are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 division games and whose roster includes 27 new players (including 11 rookies). As for the Jets, all eyes are on Favre. He's had about a month to learn a new playbook/system and it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to bond with WRs Coles (better than his 55-catch season LY) and Cotchery (82 catches / 1,130 yards). However, Brett's a "big boy" and I don't expect there to be too much of a "learning curve." RB Thomas Jones did little in the preseason but he's got a retooled OL with free-agent signed Damien Woody and Alan Faneca. The Bears made a HUGE mistake in letting him go and I expect him (with Favre offering much more of a threat than Pennington) to have a big year. Also, Leon Washington is primed for a big year as a third-down and change-of-pace option out of the backfield (think Brian Westbrook). Pennington wants nothing more to "prove the Jets wrong" and the fact that he is familiar with their defensive alignments and tendencies can't help but be an advantage. Ricky Williams has returned from "wherever," to regain the starting RB position but Ronnie Brown can play and both will see action (FYI...Brown has topped 100 yards in each of his last three games vs the Jets, averaging 116.3 per). Miami was one of just five NFL teams to allow more than 400 points last year (437) and I don't the team's defense being all that much better in '08. The Jets have gone 7-3 SU (9-1 ATS) the last 10 years in Miami and won last year 40-13, with Kellen Clemens at QB (also beat the Dolphins 31-28 in the Meadowlands). In Week 1 of '08, it will be Brett Favre, making his 254th consecutive start. The weather forecast for Sunday is hot and humid (40 percent chance of rain), which means 'tired' legs come the second half which could create some scoring opportunities. I expect this game to 'fly over' this very low total.

Week 1 Total of the Week 15* NYJ/Mia over.

Week 1 20* NFL Pick

The Bills are the only team in NFL history to reach four consecutive Super Bowls (of course, they did lost ALL four) but Buffalo enters the '08 season having missed the last EIGHT postseasons, tied for the second-longest drought of any team (Arizona has missed nine straight postseasons). In comparison, the Seahawks have made it to five consecutive postseasons, winning the NFC West in each of the last four years. The Bills haven't been to the postseason since 1999 and have had only one winning season since then, going 9-7 in '04. Last year's team had devastating injuries to the defensive side of the ball, finishing 25th in the NFL in rushing defense (124.6 YPG) and 29th with an average of 238.4 YPG allowed through the air. A sporadic pass rush produced just 26 sacks, contributed to the secondary's woes. The Bills didn't "stand pat" in the off-season though, trading with the Jags for three-time Pro Bowl DT Marcus Stroud, signing LB Kawika Mitchell from the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants as a FA and selecting CB Leodis McKelvin in the first round of April's draft. The return of MLB Paul Posluszny, who suffered a season-ending broken arm in Week 3 of his rookie campaign, will be huge for a linebacking corps that now includes Mitchell and LY's leading tackler Angelo Crowell. McKelvin joins the solid CB duo of Terrence McGee and Jabari Greer plus gets FS Ko Simpson back, a 15-game starter as a rookie in 2006 who fractured his ankle in last year's season opener and never returned. Offensively, Trent Edwards has replaced JP Losman as the team's starter at QB and despite missing most of the preseason, is ready to go here. Rookie RB Lynch had 1,115 rushing yards last year, the most by a Bills running back since 1980, and the receiving corps will be better than last year. Lee Evans (55 receptions, 5 TD) was the only real threat last year but rookie James Hardy at 6' 5" will be a HUGE addition. Seattle QB Tim Hasselbeck played just two series in the preseason (back problems), leaving him little time to work with an inexperienced group of receivers, with both Branch and Engram unavailable. Shaun Alexander, the heart of the team's running game in their playoff-run, was released in the off-season. That leaves Julius Jones (FA-Dallas) and the so-so Maurice Morris. Seattle's D is respectable, but nothing special. Mike Holmgren is coaching his final season and the Seahawks would love to send their outgoing coach off with a fifth consecutive NFC West title and sixth straight trip to the postseason. The NFC West is weak (again), so they just may do just that. However, Seattle will travel an NFL-high 34,766 miles this year and is 2-10 ATS away vs AFC opponents, including just 1-7 in the Eastern time zone. The entire division is just 21-41-1 ATS in non-division road games the last three years, showing that's division's weakness. Despite all the defensive injuries LY, the Bills covered all of their home games except those against the Pats and Giants, the two Super Bowl participants. The Bills are headed to the playoffs in '08 and it begins with a win here.

NFL Week One 20* on the Buf Bills.


Weekend Wipeout Winner

Philly QB Donovan McNabb has missed 15 games due to injury over the past three seasons and hasn't completed a 16-game season since 2003. However, the Eagles could be "the team to beat" in a wide-open NFC this year, as they enter the year with an upgraded pass rush, the addition of Asante Samuel (NE-free agent) to an already strong secondary and with super-quick rookie DeSean Jackson greatly improving Philly's return game. Improvement to the Eagles' special teams is no small matter, as special teams errors cost the Eagles at least two early wins in '07, particularly their opener in Lambeau Field to the Packers. McNabb (3324 passing yards, 19 TD / 7 INT) is still the team's leader but its best player is RB Brian Westbrook (1,333 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 12 TD). WR Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) is out and so is Reggie Brown (61 receptions, 4 TD) with a hamstring injury but I'm calling for DeSean Jackson to make a HUGE impact this year and LJ Smith (TE) has always been under-utilized. The Eagles were eighth in the league in passing a year ago and 10th in rushing, but just 17th in scoring offense. They HAVE to finish off drives this year. Scoring should come rather easily against the Rams, who last year allowed 438 points, the second-highest total in franchise history. Despite the adding DE Chris Long, the second overall pick in the draft, I wouldn't expect too much of an improvement in the team's defense this year. Offensively, Marc Bulger is coming off his worst season as a pro, throwing just 11 TDs and 15 INTs (he had a 59-31 ratio the previous three seasons) with a QB rating of only 70.3 (his rating had been over 90.0 in all but ONE of his previous five years). The OL was a mess in '07, using almost 20 different combos and it opens this year banged up, as well. Issac Bruce left as a FA for the 49ers and Tory Holt is another year older. Steven Jackson held out almost all of training camp and that's after a season in which his rushing yards dropped from 1,528 to 1,0002 and his receiving numbers fell from 90 catches for 806 yards to 38 catches for 271 yards. Most feel Philly's pass rush will be better this year and let's note that the Rams' troubled OL allowed 48 sacks last year. Philly has a very good LB corps and with Samuel joining CBs Sheldon Brown and ex-Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard plus Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell returning as the safeties, this is an outstanding unit. Jackson figures to be slow "rounding into shape" (remember Larry Johnson after his similar holdout LY with KC?) and Bulger looks "shell-shocked" these days, much like Kurt Warner in his last days with the Rams. The Rams have really struggled at home these last three seasons (8-16 SU and ATS) but they haven't exactly been "road warriors" since their last Super Bowl appearance (in '01) either, going 16-32 SU and 17-31 ATS away from home the last six seasons. They are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in those last six season-openers since appearing in the Super Bowl and the "Greatest Show on Turf" is 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games on grass fields. The Eagles visit Dallas next week and host the Steelers in Week 3, so they won't allow this "winning opportunity" to slip away here.

Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Phi Eagles.

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

20 Dime
SEAHAWKS

5 Dime
PATRIOTS

[TheBarron]

langs website says for his 5 dimer 'top dog on the NFL board' are you sure his 5 dimer is on the pats??

[Mr. IWS]

I got them from another source. This is what they gave me.

[iavila]

Does anyone have Kelso Sturgeon's selection?

[Mr. IWS]

Does anyone have Kelso Sturgeon's selection?

posted in the regular service section.