9-6-08

[Mr. IWS]

Special K Sports

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20* Arizona State (Game of Week)
20* Florida Atlantic
20* Bowling Green
20* Central Michigan
20* Notre Dame

[Mr. IWS]

PHIL STEELE / NORTHCOAST COMPS


early bird-alabama-28'

econo#2 play texas tech-10

the college dog of the week is duke+6

power play 4 star auburn-20


NEW MEXICO+ (moutain west play)


#9 big 12 play...OKLAHOMA

[Mr. IWS]

Right Angle Sports

Minnesota at Bowling Green -6

With 17 returning starters (most since 8-3 team in 2001) and the benefit of extra practice time from first bowl game since 2004, the Falcons lived up to their promise with a road win at #25 Pittsburgh last week as a double digit dog. Bowling Green features a dynamic spread offense that can change tempo in a hurry and isn't afraid to mix up formations or use trickery. QB Sheehan had great numbers last year, is now more experienced, and has every single target back from last season. The Falcon defense was a pleasant surprise in the opener. More aggressive schemes and what Insiders called the best tackling they have seen from the unit in at least five years led to a shut out of the Panthers in the second half. Bowling Green is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games but oddsmakers appear slow to catch up. The Gophers needed a score with under thirty seconds left to beat Northern Illinois in their home opener. They now go on the road where they were 0-5 last year and are just 2-9 the last two years. Minnesota's rebuilt defense under first year coordinator Ted Roof still showed signs of last years struggles giving up 326 passing yards to a NIU freshman QB who was making his first career start. They will get a much tougher test this week and were given fits by spread offenses last year. The Gophers started two redshirt freshman on the offensive line and presently lack the needed depth at wide receiver to run a dangerous spread offense. This team is still a year away from becoming a factor in the Big 10. Bowling Green players and fans should be sky high for this game as they are coming off a road win over a ranked opponent and now will host the first Big 10 team to ever play in Perry Stadium, at night and on ESPNU no less. Give the points.

Play: Bowling Green -6 1 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

CKO

11* N Dame

10* Minn
10* Wisc
10* Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

GREG SHAKER

NCAAF: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Kansas Jayhawks - Kansas -20 -110
Game Date: 9/6/2008
Note: I don't know which way this line will go, but my best educated guess is that it will go upward when it is all said and done. For now it has dropped 1/2 point. That is why I am getting on it now and there is good reason to believe that we will see a large pointspread win by the Jayhawks. I am not one to lay very many large spreads but I certainly will here. Everything went right for La Tech in their home opener with the visiting Bulldogs of Miss State as they failed miserably in that contest. Miss State threw 3 Int's, they has numerous offensive mishaps, not caused by La Tech's D. La Tech was outgained in this game, and they managed just 14 of 40 completions with 2 Int's. They also ran the ball for only about 3 yards per rush. Those same numbers are not going to get them anywhere as they travel to Lawrence Kansas to play a Jayhawk team that was 8th overall in the country on offense production and 12th overall on D last year. This team has 15 starters returning, including very talented QB Todd Reesing. They were an amazing 11-1 verses the spread last year, making them a bettor's dream. With almost the entire D back, I can't see the visiting Bulldogs having much success moving the ball and putting points on the board. I can see Kansas gathering up 40+ points. I think that we will see that. There is great optimism in Ruston Louisiana about the their team. Even former Bulldog Terry Bradshaw is pumped about their chances this year. But, they are coming off one of their largest wins ever, and they are traveling to a venue that could spell disaster. The Jayhawks punished the poor squads last year at home. Baylor caught a 58-10 whooping. Nebraska got blown clean out of the stadium 76-39. Iowa State lost 45-7. Fla Int lost 55-3. Toledo, Southeastern La, and Central Michigan lost by combined scores of 159-20. BINGO!! Let's enjoy this rout.

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 67 Belmont
REASON FOR PICK:
Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against ‘real’ defenses before they can get in to any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007, scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Over’s to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders. Head coach Mike Leach: “We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball.” Third year quarterback starter Graham Harrell: “That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better.” I expect a focused, well executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.


But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year; six points higher than that at home. Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total. (#335-336) Take the Over.

[Mr. IWS]

KING CREOLE

90% ATS System

Northwestern Wildcats @ Duke Blue Devils
Play on: DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Since this System hit on Thursday night with VANDERBILT... and it has another qualifier on Saturday, count me IN! Most players are aware that Duke's win over Northwestern last year probably kept the Wildcats out of a Bowl appearance. So there's big time REVENGE going here. But like the Commodores proved 2 nights ago, sometimes it's better to play INTO Revenge.

27-13 ATS since 1980: GAME TWO home DOGS (Duke) playing INTO non-conference Revenge. Shorter dogs of +7.5 or less points have gone 20-8 ATS in this same time span... and an almost PERFECT 9-1 ATS since 1998.

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

Georgia Tech @ Boston College
PICK: 4* Boston College -6.5

One of our prime axioms in college sports is that when major system changes are made in a program the team is likely to take a step backwards regardless of how good the new coach is. We used that to cash an easy ticket against S.M.U. and June Jones last week, and we see more of the same against Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech here, particularly based on the matchups at hand in this game.

Johnson has brought the complex option packages that were so successful at Navy to the Yellow Jackets, and while he will be successful in time, the transition period will be rocky. It was an ugly spring, with 14 fumbles in one April scrimmage, and then nine in the spring game, and despite running mostly vanilla plays against Jacksonville State last week the offense still fumbled five times, losing two. That was against an opponent that they could push around in the trenches, which kept option plays and passes to a minimum, but now it is an entirely different matchup. Not only are they heading to the road, but Boston College brings one of the toughest defensive front seven’s in the nation. The Eagles were #2 against the run LY despite playing without N. J. Raji (academics) and Brian Toal (red-shirt), but now those two are back to create a wall that will not allow much of anything between the tackles. That means that soph QB Josh Nesbitt will have to make things happen on the perimeter in his first college road start, and also through the air. That is unlikely to happen. The B. C. defense held a more experienced Tech offense to 267 yards in an easy 24-10 road win LY, and now the setting is even more favorable.

The inexperience of Nesbitt is only the beginning of Johnson’s problems, however. There are 16 players on the two-deep chart that have never played a single down on the road, including five starters. And with new systems on both sides of the ball, that means the kind of mistakes that come with youth. There is also a major cluster injury problem at LB, with starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes sidelined, which makes them extremely thin, and will force a pair of true freshmen into action. From Johnson - ”We’re probably going to have our hands forced and we’re going to have to play more of them (freshmen). Just from the standpoint of depth, we just don’t have anybody.”

Because of the inexperience with his playbook Johnson would like to not reach back into his bag of tricks, but he may have to in order to have any chance here. But keep in mind that B. C. defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani was the interim head coach when the Eagles beat Johnson and his Navy team in a bowl game in December of 2006, which meant nearly a full month of studying Johnson’s tactics then, and with many of the same faces still playing for the Eagles, it helps to have them well-prepared now.

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Sheet Phone Plays

Top...E Car
Reg...Fla--Houston--Kan--MdTnSt

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

5* graded play on Florida - Ai Simulator shows an 81% probability that Florida will win this game by 22 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Florida will outgain Miami by a MINIMUM of 2.0 yards per play and also gain a MINIMUM of 450 total yard converting into a MINIMUM of 6.5 yards per play. Note that Florida is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. AiS further shows a 93% probability that Florida will score 28 or more points and a 75% probability that they score 42 or more points. Notet that Florida is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points since 1992. Miami is off a 52-7 blowout win over Charleston Southern. Miami is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Converseley, Florida is off a nice win fo their own defeating Hawaii 56-10 and covering a 36 point spread. Note that HC Myer is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.

5* graded play on Washington State - Ai Simulator shows a 78% probability that WSU will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. if you had my Thursday night shocking winner on Vanderbilt whereI also added a 1.5* money line amount at +350, this play shapes up in a near identical framework. If available I suggest adding another 1* amount and expect to get near +400 or even a little more for this wager. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that WSU will score 28 or more points. Note that Cal is just 23-52 ATS (-34.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Cal has been a losing investment in this role noting they are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has hit 114-58 making 56.5 units for 66% over the past `10 seasons. Play against a road team versus the money line in conference games, returning 5 or less offensive starters facin an opponent returning 8+ defensive starters. WSU has a strong history of playing at full potential in home openers. The Cougars have won seven consecutive Martin Stadium openers, and 14 of their last 16. Since the formation of the Pacific-10 Conference in 1978, the Cougars have played their first Martin Stadium game of a particular season against a league foe nine times. WSU is an even 4-4-1 in those games. Take WSU.


5* graded play on Florida Atlantic - Ai Simulator shows an 82 % probability that FA will win this game by 14 or more points. FA has hardly had any games where they have a solid chance to win bog adn also score a ton of point. HC Schnellenberger will make certain that his team is fully perpraed adn focused for this opportunity. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 18 or more points. Note that FA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Interesting to note too is the betting pubic has been dead wrong most of the time when the moving the line in FA games. The public has a record of 29% ATS for a 9-22 mark ATS 1992 when moving FA lines. This line opened at 14.5 adn is currently offered at 12.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Take Florida Atlantic.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

5* Penn State
4* Auburn
3* Miami-Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

REAL ANIMAL FREE PICK

Pick title: 2* Miami of Ohio +14 1/2
Pick Date: 09/06/2008
Pick description:
After watching Vanderbilt take apart South Carolina in the 2nd half on Thursday, maybe it wasn’t so bad that Miami of Ohio was only out-gained by the Commodores by 20 yards last week. Also not bad considering Redhawk QB Daniel Raudabaugh threw three interceptions, Vanderbilt scored on a 91-yard punt return, and the visitor was only called for two penalties. Certainly Utah is a solid team. But how many MWC squads in the past 20 years come to the Big House and beat Michigan? The Wolverines had 11 first downs and it was apparent, until the 4th quarter, they were clueless under the new system put in by Coach Rodriguez. The spread offense produced 11 first downs and 36 yards rushing. Mike Hart normally had 36 yards in a quarter. Also don’t be misled by Michigan’s 4th quarter comeback. It was significantly aided by a Utah fumble, a blocked punt, and penalties called on the Utes (15-for-137). If Utah didn’t kick four field goals, the score would have been lopsided. Michigan is a very young team, especially on offense. They will have serious growing pains learning the Rodriguez approach. To make matters worse after losing their two stud receivers in Manningham and Breaston to graduation, last week their best active receiver, Greg Mathews, is doubtful this week because of an ankle injury sustained against Utah. Miami of Ohio is an experienced team with 17 starters back and that’s what you need to rebound from the Vanderbilt game. It’s always a big deal for a MAC team to travel into the Big 10. The RedHawks are 5-1 ATS as a visiting underdog recently after an upset loss as a favorite. Teams with 17 starters or more returning to a team are 25-9 ATS in game #2 if they lost the opener SU and ATS. This figures to be a low scoring game (total 40 ½) and two touchdowns with change looks very appealing. Michigan is 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 24 in Ann Arbor. They are 2-7 ATS recently when hosting non-Big 10 teams and 1-3 ATS versus MAC teams. Take away turnovers and special team mishaps and Miami of Ohio played Vanderbilt even. Normally that wouldn’t be a big deal but knowing Coach Spurrier is 0-2 SU the last two years against the Commodores has me believing Miami can stay competitive here. It certainly isn’t the first time a Michigan number is inflated.

[Mr. IWS]

purelock ?
CFB: Arizona State

MLB: Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO

SATURDAY'S PICK

25 DIME

KANSAS

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers 20* is California
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

kelso
high rollers baseball 15 unit - cards

[Mr. IWS]

Indiancowboy Comp

Akron +4.5

I think it's been a long time since Syracuse has been favored in a ball game, period. It actually amuses me that they are actually giving up points to a team. Note that roughly 60% of the public still favors Syracuse coming into this game, these 2 teams have not played each other at all in recent memory, in fact, I don't know if they have ever locked horns in their football history, Syracuse comes off a 20 point loss on the road at Northwestern which of course, they failed to cover, Akron comes off a 21 point loss on the road at Wisconsin. Note, that this Akron team is sound, they have a great QB in Chris Jacquemain who threw for 2 touchdowns and 0 picks at Wisconsin, a top 15 team in the nation, and actually completed more than 60% of his passes while Andrew Robinson did not throw a TD and threw a pick against Northwestern. In fact, he barely passed for over a 100 yards. Syracuse actually returns more players with 7 on offense (similar to Akron) but 6 on defense while Akron only returns 4. Of course, this is no good if your returning starters are not that good - lol. Having said this, despite the total going under since opening, I simply can't all see all that much defense here as both teams should have some success scoring. But, in the end, don't be surprised to see Akron win this baby Outright.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

2000* - Ole Miss Rebels, 500*s - Boston College, Temple, & Kansas

I used Wake Forest as a Thursday night 1500? Lead Pipe Lock on August 28th, as Wake went into Baylor, and blasted the Bears for me.I will go-against the Demon Deacons in this spot, as I believe they are laying a few points too many against an Ole Miss squad that looked very solid in their opening win at home against Memphis 41-24 last Saturday. The Rebels have a home game against Samford on-deck, while Wake's next game on the 20th comes at Florida State.Houston Nutt knows how to get his troups up when installed as the underdog, as he did go 7-1 against the spread his last 8 dog tries at Arkansas. These schools did meet in 2006 at Oxford, and Wake Forest ripped the Rebels 27-3 as the small road favorite.Looks to me like there is a slight revenge factor working in our favor for this one as well!Wake Forest has been a terrible home favorite in non-conference games, as Jim Grobe's team is 0-9-1 against the math their last 10 in that role! Those are kinds of numbers I like to see when I have the visiting non-conference dog baby.Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead and the new "Wild Rebel" formation looks like it will be able to keep pace scoring-wise with Riley Skinner, and his Demon Deacon mates.

Take the points in this 1st Ever 2000? Lock-Zilla Dog of the Year.


2000? - Ole Miss Rebels (3:30 pm)

Paul Johnson's debut at Georgia Tech was a success, as the Yellow Jackets dismantled Jacksonville State as expected. The sledding ain't gonna be as easy in Chestnut Hill today, as BC does have a rugged defense that will be able to stop the Jackets for most of the afternoon.Boston College handed Georgia Tech their first loss of the season last year, 24-10 in Atlanta, and they are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 times these schools have met.Both schools are working with new QB's, but with this being the home opener for the Eagles, and their defense pitching a shutout last week against Kent, I have a feeling BC's stop unit will be able to force a few Tech turnovers in the high-risk option offense that Coach Johnson likes to employ.

Lay the points with Boston College in their home opener today!

500? - Boston College Eagles (12 pm)


I like the underdog Owls at home against the Huskies today.
Temple did me a solid with a 500? opening night winner at Army, 35-7, and things are sure looking up for Al Golden's team, as they are on an 8-4-1 spread run their last 13 games. Better still is their 10-4 spread mark when catching points in their own yard.Connecticut was a 30-point favorite last year at home against Temple, and the Owls made the Huskies sweat for the full 60-minutes in a 22-17 loss. That cover made it 4 straight Give-a-Hoot covers in this series since 2001! UConn is not usaully installed as road favorites, and they do have a monster revenge game at home with Virginia on-deck.

Take any points they are giving as Temple is there today.

500? - Temple Owls (12 pm)


Rock-Chalk Jayhawk was not able to cover in their home opener against Florida International last week, as they won 40-10, but were laying over 35-points.The spread is a little lower tonight, and Kansas definitely is on guard after Louisiana Tech's home upset win over Miss State last weekend.
The Bulldogs were able to force 5 turnovers in their 22-14 upset win last week, but on the road I doubt they will be as fortunate. Remember, the Jayhawks are 15-3 against the spread their last 18 lined games, and 12-2 their last 14 as a home favorite.Lay away!

500? - Kansas Jayhawks (7 pm)

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
CFB 3-0 on the season


Air Force +3 3 star


Iowa State -7 1 Star


Northern Illinois +6 1 Star

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's 20* CFB Non-Conf BLOWOUT of the Month! - Saturday
Play on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State has been an unmitigated disaster on the non-conference road the past three years, turning in at least one terrible performance each season. Last year, they went to Cincinnati and lost 34-3 as a three-point FAVORITE. In 2006, the trip wasn?t nearly as long, but the result was equally as painful when Boise State crushed them 42-14 on the blue turf. The year prior, Louisville hung 63 points on them in a 36-point beatdown. All told, that?s an average pointspread loss of 26 points per game! What makes things even more depressing for Mike Riley is that all of those Beaver teams were better than the one he?s fielding this year. That was proven when they lost outright at Stanford last Thursday (another road loss). Overall, Riley is eight-games under .500 in his tenure in Corvallis. Last week, they were outrushed 210-86 by a Cardinal team that had previously averaged just 1.0 YPC in the previous five meetings between the schools. Losing the ENTIRE front seven kills the defense. In Penn State, they draw a very rude non-conference host, one that has won 13 straight at Beaver Stadium over non-Big Ten teams by an average of over 31 PPG. OSU is 1-10-1 ATS in September. We?ll gladly look past the PSU suspensions. Penn State is our Non-Conference Blowout of the Month.

Good luck, Lenny

Lenny Del Genio's **ADDED BOARD** Game of the Year
Play on Maryland at 7:00 ET. Here is a matchup of teams coming in off disappointing performances. The only difference is that Maryland won their game. MTSU saw 2007 end on a sour note with an ugly 45-7 loss at Troy. After getting all season to think about that defeat, the Blue Raiders got the unique opportunity to have a shot at immediate revenge in last Thursday?s season opener. The result? A 31-17 home loss, despite getting four takeaways. They were also outgained by over a full yard per play. Home underdogs, in the first month of the season, that ended last season with multiple losses and are off a conference loss this year are a terrible 5-26 ATS since 1992. Now Ralph Friedgen certainly has no reason to be smiling in College Park this week after his Terps only bested FBS Delaware 14-7 in the opener. However, that is a Delaware team that played for the FBS National Championship last year. Also, sophomore RB Da?Rel Scott ran for 197 yards last week, so there is reason to be excited about this team here. Three missed FG?s made last week?s game look closer than it actually was. Maryland is a perfect 5-0 vs. Sun Belt teams with the average win by 17 PPG. Maryland is our Added Board Game of the Year.

Good luck, Lenny