9-16-08

Big Al Mcmordie

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB)
Play: Money Line: UNDER

At 8:05pm our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers 'under' the total. This game begins a crucial three game series between these two teams, with the Brewers making one last gasp against their division rivals. It's more likely that Milwaukee will be playing for a wild card spot than the division title, as the Cubs have begun to put some distance between themselves and the surprising team from Wisconsin. And this first pitching matchup couldn't be any closer. Both veterans, Milwaukee's CC Sabathia and Chicago's Ryan Dempster have 15 wins, and both have ERAs right around three runs. Sabathia has been everything the Brewers could have hoped for (and more) when they acquired him at the trade deadline. He is 9-0 as a National League starter, but has been stuck on the nine wins since the end of August and could be at least a little frustrated that he hasn't gotten his tenth win since coming over, despite pitching very well in both of his September starts so far. Dempster has also been a bit snake-bitten lately, not having won in his last three starts despite pitching well. He's faced the Brewers once this season, and he was as dominant as he's been all season, going seven innings, giving up one earned run on only five hits with nine strikeouts. The Cubs have unexpectedly already been playing in Milwaukee, as their series against the Astros was moved to this city after Hurricane Ike came through the Houston area over the weekend. Carlos Zambrano's no-hitter on Sunday night may well be the first no-no in history that did not take place in the home park of either team. And Ted Lilly pitched another gem on Monday. Clearly, the Cubs' pitching has been spectacular of late. Take the 'under'.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer - Scott's MLB SITUATIONAL **GAME OF THE MONTH!** (Guaranteed Winner)


(913) SD Padres
(914) COL Rockies
Take " (914) COL Rockies

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (185-102 two-year run)
My 15* play is on the Hou Astros at 7:10 ET. Hurricane Ike really took a toll on the Astros' postseason chances. The team's three-game series with the Cubs, scheduled to be played in Houston this past weekend was postponed and the Astros were forced to play the Cubs Sunday and Monday in Milwaukee's Miller Park. It was not even a neutral site, as Cub fans easily made the trip. Carlos Zambrano no-hit the Astros on Sunday night (5-0) and Lilly followed with seven innings of scoreless ball on Monday afternoon (one hit and nine Ks), as the Cubs won again, 6-1. The Astros had won six straight and 14 of 15 games prior to this weekend and the venue change was a 'killer.' However, the Astros are in good shape to get back on the winning track tonight, behind the pitching of Roy Oswalt. Oswalt opened the '08 season 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his first three starts and for the better part of the season's first half, struggled with his mechanics. On 7/11, he lasted just one inning vs Washington and was the placed on 15-day DL with a left hip adductor strain. Oswalt returned to the mound on July 28 and he's been "the Oswalt of old," since. He's 8-1 with a 1.94 ERA over 10 starts (team is 9-1) and enters this game off back-to-back complete game shutouts over Colorado and Pittsburgh (allowed just four hits). He's lasted at least eight innings in FIVE of his last six starts and hasn't allowed a run in 32.1 innings, passing JR Richard's franchise record of 31 consecutive scoreless innings in his last outing. All of a sudden, the Marlins have won five straight but their wild card chances are all but gone. Opposing Oswalt in this game is rookie Chris Volstad (4-3, 3.31 ERA). Volstad's made 12 appearances (11 starts) and surprisingly, has been better on the road (2.32 ERA / team is 4-1), than he's been here in Miami (4.19 ERA / team is 2-4). Let's ride Oswalt and the Astros in this one. NL Game of the Week 15* Hou Astros.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch of the Week (185-102 two-year run)
My 15* play is on the Phi Phillies ta 7:10 ET. Philadelphia won 13 of its last 17 games in '07 to earn its first division title since 1993, benefiting from the Mets' collapse. The Phillies are hoping their four-game weekend sweep of the Brewers will be the catalyst for another strong finish and another division title (or wild card spot) in '08. The Phillies have 12 games left and open a three-game series tonight in Atlanta against the Braves. The 67-83 Braves will miss the playoffs for the third straight season after making 14 postseasons in a row from 1991-2005 (the '94 postseason was lost to a strike). Atlanta began the year playing very well at home (opened 25-8) but have gone just 16-16 in Turner Field after that fast start. Philadelphia should be very confident entering this series, as it has won 10 of 12 meetings with the Braves this year. The Phils also own a HUGE advantage in tonight's pitching matchup. Philly will go with 45-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer (14-7, 3.68 ERA), who's won three straight starts with a 2.50 ERA. The Phillies have won SIX of his last seven starts (3.32 ERA) and he's been a much better pitcher on the road, all season. While Moyer's gone just 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 15 home starts (team is 8-7), but he's 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 15 road starts (team is 11-4). Atlanta will counter the ageless Moyer with a 22-year-old rookie, James Parr. I realize that in his two starts this year, Parr has pitched 12 scoreless innings but those games came against the 57-93 Nationals (own MLB's worst record) and the Rockies, who have dropped EIGHT of their last nine. The Braves are just 19-27 vs lefties this year and Moyer is "on a roll" plus expect Parr to find the Philly bats a much tougher assignment then he did Washington and Colorado's lineup. Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* Phi Phillies.

Good Luck....Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (52-32 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels at 10:05 ET. The Angels celebrated their recent 6-1 homestand by clinching the AL West title for the fourth time in five years and also saw closer Francisco Rodriguez notch his record-breaking 58th save (most-ever in a single season). However, as the Angels visit Oakland on Tuesday night to open a season high-tying 10-game road trip, they "still have work to do." LA owns a major league best 92-57 record but they still need to secure homefield advantage in the AL and to do that, the Angels must stay ahead of the 89-61 Red Sox and 88-60 Rays. The Angels will take a five-game winning streak into tonight's game and will have John Lackey on the hill. Lackey's been far from perfect in the second half of the year but he's followed a 19-9 (3.01 ERA) season in '07 by going 11-3 with a 3.25 ERA in 21 starts in '08 (team is 14-7). He got a late start to the '08 season due to a right triceps strain (first start wasn't until May 14) but he 'loves' pitching against the A's, going 14-3 (2.67 ERA) in his career against them. That includes an 8-1 mark with a 1.71 ERA in his last 10 vs the A's. The 69-80 A's can only counter with Sean Gallagher, who acquired him from the Cubs in the deal that sent Rich Harden to Chicago. His first start with the A's was against the Angels (7/11) and he was very good, going seven innings while allowing two hits and two ERs in a 9-2 win. However, over his next six starts for Oakland Gallagher was 'rocked,' allowing 40 hits and 23 ERs over 27.1 innings for a 7.57 ERA (he was 0-2 and the team was 0-6). He was placed on the DL August 21 with shoulder fatigue but was removed on September 10. He pitched four scoreless innings vs Detroit last Wednesday and while he didn't allow a hit, he also walked SIX batters. Let's also note that the Tigers are currently in a "free-fall!" I realize the Angels are just 5-9 their last 14 away games but they still own MLB's best road record (by far), at 43-28. It should also be noted that after some early struggles against right-handers in the early going of the year, the Angels head into this game with a 62-43 mark vs righties in '08 (were 75-47 vs righties LY!). As already mentioned, Lackey's been great vs the A's in his career (particularly recently) and this Oakland team ranks last in all of MLB in team BA (.241) and is among MLB's lowest scoring teams (3.96 RPG). Oakland is 44-55 vs righties this year, with its worst category being home night games (like this), where the A's are 12-22 while averaging just 3.5 RPG. What's NOT to like about the Angels in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the LA Angels.