9-21-08 Sunday NFL

Ben Burns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Opinion (Over 35)


Currently down to 35 at many books, this is the lowest total on the Week 3 board. I think that's a little too low.

These teams last met in 2006, a December game which was played in Chicago. The game was expected to be low-scoring, as it also had an over/under line of 35. It sailed over that mark, finishing with a whopping 65 points.

Including that shootout, the Bears have seen 15 of their last 20 home games eclipse the total. Not exactly what you'd expect from a team known for having a good defense and a poor offense. The Bears are averaging 23 points per game through two games this season.

It should be noted that kick returner Devin Hester is questionable. I wouldn't normally mention a special teams player, but Hester is exceptional. The speedster's got serious game-breaking ability and is a threat to go the distance every time he has the football.

Hester often causes the opposing team to kick a shorter distance (or out of bounds) to avoid having him get his hands on it. This typically leads to the Bears starting with good field position.

I don't know anything more than what I've read in the papers, but it's my feeling that Hester will play. He was quoted in Thursday's Chicago Sun Times as saying: "I am pushing for it. I'm feeling a lot better so I am hoping by the end of the week I will have no pain or anything like that."

When asked whether or not he would kick to Hester, Tampa coach Jon Gruden responded: "That probably wouldn't be very smart on our part. I've kind of seen over the years, this guy is very dangerous. We'll have to be very selective and be careful of how we kick to him."

As for the Bucs, the total in their last seven road games have have all reached 38 or higher. Those seven games averaged 42.9 combined points and six of them finished above the number.

Tampa Bay is averaging 22 points per game this season and has scored a minimum of 20 in each game. Brian Griese, who was with Chicago last year, is expected to get another start and he should be itching to put up some good numbers against his former team.

Larry Ness' NFL 25* (won LEGEND last Saturday with Oregon St, 45-7)
My NFL 25* is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. Everyone knows the storyline. The Cards own just ONE winning season since moving from St Louis to Arizona for the start of the 1988 season (that came in 1998). That was also the team's last postseason appearance and the Cards opened this year with the NFL's longest-active postseason drought of nine consecutive playoff-less years. So what's going on in '08? The Cards are one of 10 teams to have opened 2-0 and Kurt Warner has gone "Back to Future," looking as little like he did from 1999-2001 (well, almost). Warner's completed 70.4 percent for 558 yards with four TDs (0 INTS) and a QB rating of 128.5. In Boldin (14 catches / three TDs) and Fitzgerald (nine catches / 20.4 YPC) he has one of the NFL's best pass-catching duos plus the team's defense, ranks fifth in PPG allowed (11.5) and seventh in YPG allowed (263.5 YPG). The Cards' decision to go with Kurt Warner as their starting QB has been a good one so far, as the team's 31-point effort last week vs Miami was Arizona's 10th straight game in which it has scored at least 20 points, the longest current streak in the NFL! The Redskins come in 1-1, losing at the NY Giants in the season's first game but then beating the Saints last week (29-24). The 'Skins mustered only 209 yards in the season-opening loss to the Giants but had 455 yards against the Saints. QB Campbell looked confused vs the Giants but was 24-of-36 for 321 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) vs New Orleans, while RB Portis has been solid in both games, gaining 84 vs the NYG and 96 vs New Orleans. Moss has 12 catches and has a TD catch in five straight games, while fellow WR Randle-El has 11 catches in the first two games. TE Cooley has just six catches but don't worry, he's averaged just about 65 catches per season the last three years. Washington's defense is solid and it should get pressure on Warner. The Cards can no longer depend on James (3.5 YPC through the season's first two weeks / 3.6 YPC over his first two season with Arizona) to give them a solid running game, which means all the pressure is on Warner and his talented WRs. Washington held a very talented New Orleans offense to just 16 FDs (3-of-10 on 3rd down), 250 total yards and just two offensive TDs, as the Saints' third TD came on a 55-yard punt return by Bush. Brees, who passed for 343 yards with three TDs vs Tampa Bay, was held to just 216 yards with one TD and two INTs by the Redskins. At 2-0, the Cards could get to 3-0 with a win here. That's a significant mark, as over the last five years, 24 of the 26 teams which have opened 3-0 have made the playoffs, including all 14 teams which got to 3-0 over the last three seasons. The Cards I "know and love" will find a way to lose here. Let's note that since the 2000 season, the Cards are just 14-51 SU on the road (including their Week 1 win at San Francisco this year). A quick check of the record book shows that just TWO of those 51 losses have come by LESS than three points. NFL 25* on the Was Redskins.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Went 0-3 last week.

Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Colts
The Colts are so banged up that the organization convened an emergency meeting this week to discuss switching out the team's famed horseshoe logo for a Red Cross symbol. In addition to quarterback Peyton Manning (who's playing on a gimpy knee), Indianapolis' walking wounded includes four of its five starting offensive lineman; Pro Bowl caliber tight end Dallas Clark; and hard-hitting safety Bob Sanders, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. It's gotten to the point that, instead of audibles, Manning is going to bark out a telephone number soliciting donations when he comes to the line of scrimmage this week.

Now, I know the Jaguars have their own injury concerns, particularly across the offensive line. But without Sanders – the game's premier run-stuffer – launching himself into the backfield, Jacksonville's men up front only need to stay upright for running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to finally get rolling. After all, even with Sanders on the field, the Colts' defense has yielded an average of 181.5 rushing yards through two games. At the same time, Joseph Addai and Indy's running game is generating just 39 rushing yards per contest. Toss in the fact that the Colts are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 divisional games and 1-5 ATS in their last six at home, and I'll take the points with what is clearly a most desperate – yet talented – Jaguars squad that needs a win to save its season.

Packers (+3) vs. Cowboys
Gee, do you think Aaron Rodgers is walking around Green Bay these days with both hands thrust in the air giving the single-fingered salute to all the Favre lovers in Packerville? The guy has been near-perfect in his first two NFL starts, completing 42 of 60 pass attempts – that's 70 percent for you math majors – for 506 yards with four touchdowns and nary an interception. Now Rodgers gets to pick apart a Cowboys defense that got torched by Donovan McNabb on Monday night; the same Cowboys defense that Rodgers lit up last year in Dallas when he subbed for an injured Favre and went 18-for-26 for 201 yards. If the guy can come off the bench stone cold and put up those kind of numbers – on the road, no less – how do you think he's going to do at home with a full week of preparation under his belt?

Put it another way: If the Cowboys are giving up nearly 40 points to a divisional rival at home, how many are they going to give up in a hostile venue - under the lights and playing on a short week - against an offense that's averaging 36 points and 382 total yards per game? Honestly, the only thing this week that surprised me more than this pointspread was Bill Belichick actually smiling. I went against Dallas on Monday night, improving to 11-1 with my football best bets this season, including 4-1 in the NFL, by cashing in with the Eagles as a 20 dime release, and I've got to go against the Pokes in this spot as well. There are simply too many factors in the Packers' favor.

Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 16-5-2 against the NFC, 6-1 at home and 7-0 in September, while Dallas has failed to cover in six of its last seven games. What's more, these teams have met 16 times in the last 27 years, and the home team has won 14 of those 16 games, including the last 10 in a row. The host has also cashed in each of the last seven meetings! Wrong team is favored here, my friends. Play the Packers.

Giants (-13.5) vs. Bengals
Here's how bad things have gotten in Cincinnati: The Bengals this week submitted a formal request with the federal government to bail them out! Not only that, but Chad Ocho Cinco is trying to change his name again, this time to Chad Get Me The Hell Out Of Here. All kidding aside, here's what the Bengals have done in two weeks: They've scored 17 points (total) and given up 41; they've gained 369 yards on offense (153 on the ground) and given up 753 on defense (406 on the ground). And QB Carson Palmer, who not long ago was widely considered a Top 5 NFL passer, has completed just 26 of 52 passes for 233 yards with no TDs and three INTs.

Now this dysfunctional unit is going to the Meadowlands to face the defending Super Bowl champs, who have crushed their first two opponents by the combined score of 57-20 and outgained those two foes by an average of 193 yards per game (398-205). If I'm Cincy coach Marvin Lewis, I slip a Benjamin to the pilot of the team plane and ask him take a detour to Bermuda – but not before opening the hatch door and dropping his gutless players into the ocean. Bottom line: It's taken a few years, but the Bengals, who are 7-14 SU and 8-13 ATS going back to late in the 2006 season, have done the improbable and reclaimed their title of Joke of the NFL.

There's no way in hell the Bengals compete against this enormously confident Giants team that's 16-4 SU and ATS in its last 20 games that have mattered – with half of those 16 wins coming by double digits! I used New York as my very first best bet this season against the Redskins on opening night. The only mistake I've possibly made this year – and there haven't been many considering I'm 11-1 with best bets so far – is not backing Big Blue in last week's road rout of the Rams. This Sunday, back at home with a bye on the horizon, I won't repeat that mistake as I'm all over New York.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob NFL

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I was really looking forward to handicapping this week's NFL card after going 2-0 on my Best Bets and 5-0 on my Strong Opinions last week. However, there isn't anything this week that I liked enough to bet, so I'm passing. I do have two strong opinions (Washington and SF). The number of Best Bets is always low in the first few weeks of the season but it picks up when my math model kicks in in week 5.

Strong Opinion
WASHINGTON (-3.0) 23 Arizona 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Sep-08
Arizona is 2-0, but the Cardinals were fortunate to beat the 49ers in week 1 (out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.8 yppl, but +5 in turnovers) and beating up on Miami isn’t that impressive. Washington , meanwhile, lost their opener to a very good New York Giants team and then bounced back to beat a pretty good New Orleans squad in a performance that was more impressive than the 29-24 score indicates (the Redskins averaged 6.8 yppl and held the Saints’ explosive attack to 4.7 yppl). Washington has out-gained their opponents by 0.6 yppl (5.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl) while Arizona has out-gained their foes by 0.7 yppl (5.9 yppl to 5.2 yppl), but the Redskins have faced a better than average schedule (NYG and NO) while Arizona has faced a mediocre San Francisco team and a bad Dolphins squad. My ratings favor Washington by 6 ½ points and the Cardinals apply to a negative 123-190-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (-120 or less) and I’d take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ or less (-115 odds or better). I’ll also lean under on the basis of a 55-19-2 Under situation.

Strong Opinion
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.0) 28 Detroit 19
01:05 PM Pacific, 21-Sep-08
The 49ers are an underrated team that has combined a resurgent offense with an improved defense to become a better than average team. San Francisco dominated Arizona 6.8 yards per play to 4.3 yppl in their opener, but lost that game due to a -5 in turnover margin (4 lost fumbles) and then they bounced back with an upset win at Seattle in which they out-gained the Seahawks 5.8 yppl to 4.9 yppl. The Niners’ offense can run the ball with Frank Gore (4.8 ypr) and they can now throw it with J.T. O’Sullivan running new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system with aplomb. O’Sullivan has averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and he’s averaged 7.1 yards per pass play despite taking too many sacks (12 so far). The Niners’ defense has allowed only 4.6 yppl and have been especially good against the pass (5.1 yppp allowed), which should serve them well in this game against a pass-heavy Lions’ attack. The Lions continue to throw the ball often (42.5 pass plays per game), but Kitna was just average last season on a yards per pass play basis and he’s averaged 6.0 yppp in two games this season while continuing to throw too many interceptions (42 in two previous seasons with Detroit and 4 picks in 2 games this season). Detroit ’s rushing attack has managed just 3.4 ypr so far and their offense is about average overall from a yards per play perspective (although worse than average when you factor in the interceptions). Detroit ’s defense is what is making them a bad team, as the Lions gave up 9.2 yards per play to Atlanta and then gave up 6.7 yppl in a 25-48 home loss to Green Bay . Using this year’s stats only would favor San Francisco by 18 points and my ratings favor the Niners by 13 points in this game. Unfortunately, San Francisco applies to a negative 21-58-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | NFL Total
double-dime bet410 SFX / 409 DET Over 46.5 SportBet
Analysis:
Jon Kitna opened his big mouth last year and "guaranteed" that the Lions would win 10 games. Detroit did open 6-2 but finished the season only 7-9 after losing SEVEN of its final eight games. With Favre gone to the Jets plus the Bears and Vikings entering this year with question marks, the Lions had high hopes again to open '08. However, Detroit is off to an 0-2 start and its defense has been just DREADFUL. The Lions got Atlanta in Week 1, a team starting a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and Green Bay in Week 2, off a big MNF win over the Vikings and with its QB (Aaron Rodgers) making just his second career start. Ryan didn't have a HUGE game but the Falcons rolled to 474 yards while scoring 34 points, while Rodgers was 24-of-38 for 328 yards (three TDs and no INTs) for the Packers, as they had 447 total yards and scored 48 points. Kitna has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two seasons as Detroit's starting QB and the Lions have gone 'over' in six of their eight road games in both '06 and '07. That's in part due to Detroit's offensive capabilities but has as much, if not more to do, with Detroit's poor defensive play. The Lions allowed an average of 28.1 PPG on the road last year and 34.5 PPG last season. In Week 1 at Atlanta, the Lions allowed 34 points. Sunday, the Lions visit San Francisco and their former OC, Mike Martz. Martz is running the 49ers offense now and he saw JT O'Sullivan (in just his second career start), lead the 49ers back in Seattle. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 33-30 (in OT) last week, as O'Sullivan completed 20-of-32 passes for 321 yards (one TD and no INTs). Frank Gore (157 yards / 4.8 YPC) has run for 1,695 yards in '06 and 1,102 last year and should LOVE facing a Detroit team which has allowed an NFL-worst 220.5 YPG on the ground in the season's first two games. Any thoughts that WR Issac Bruce was "washed up" were dispelled in Seattle, as the man with 946 career catches (84 TDs) caught four balls for 153 yards. WR Bryant Johnson, who spent the last few years behind Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona, looks as if he's ready for a big year in "the Martz system," opening with nine catches in two games. Speaking of WRs, the Lions are loaded with them in Calvin Johnson (13 catches / 18.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Roy Williams (6 catches / 15.8 YPC), McDonald (79 catches LY) and Furrey (61 catches LY / 98 catches in '06). This game could be 'over' by halftime. Week 3 Total of the Week 15* Det/SF Over.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

BENGALS

Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants Game Time: 9/21/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Reason: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. The defending champs are off to an impressive 2-0 SU/ATS start while the Bengals have struggled out of the gate, going 0-2 SU/ATS. As you probably know, the lines on defending Super Bowl champions are typically quite high to begin with. The fact that the Giants now also come in as the hotter team has caused this line to be extremely high. I believe that it's too high. Note that the last time that the Giants were laying a number in this range was way back in 2006 when they were -13 point home favorites vs. Houston. (The Giants won by only four points.) Keep in mind that this is a team which has won by playing strong defense, not by blowing teams away. That's great for winning games but doesn't necessarily help when trying to cover two touchdown pointspreads. In fact, prior to last week's blowout win over the Rams (which was close for much of the way) the Giants had seen seven straight games decided by 10 points or less. Even including the victory over the Rams, the Giants have still only won two of their past 15 games by double-digits. It's true that Cincinnati's off-field problems have been well-documented. Those "issues" have further helped to keep this line generously high. The Bengals' still has plenty of talent though. They entered the season with fairly lofty expectations and they know that falling to 0-3 will be a very tough hole to climb out of. As a result, I expect them to play with a real sense of desperation. As QB Palmer had to say: "It seems like it's the end of the world to a lot of people. This team has a lot of hope left. We have a lot to play for, a lot of pride. The Giants started 0-2 (last season). A lot can be done from 0-2." The Bengals have only been underdogs in this range once since back in 2000. That came in 2002, when they were +13.5 dogs at Indianapolis. The Bengals covered the spread in that game (lost by 7) and are a highly profitable 9-3 ATS the last 12 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points overall. Look for them to improve on those numbers, giving the defending champs a much tougher game than most are expecting. *Non-Conference GOM
UNDER lions/49ers

Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Time: 9/21/2008 4:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the 49'ers and Lions to finish UNDER the total. It's true that the Lions have a ton of points through the first two games and also that the 49'ers are coming off a high-scoring game vs. the 49'ers. Those results have caused this number to be very high and it's also been bet up from its opening number, providing us with excellent value. The earlier results have come against vastly different opponents and in the Lions' case, they've been forced to abandon the running game early due to falling behind each game. Make no mistake though - the Lions want to run the ball. They also want to control the clock. Last week's game got out of hand. However, the final score appears a lot worse than it really was, as the Packers ran back two interceptions for touchdowns in the final three minutes. The score also doesn't show that the Lions' defenders were actually playing quite well to begin the game. They got pressure on Aaron Rodgers twice on third and long and both times they nearly had the sack. If they had gotten him on either of those plays, that game likely would have been much lower-scoring. In both cases, Rodgers barely escaped and was able to complete a big play. Afterwards, things snowballed. However, my point is that I watched the game closely (a few times now) and there were positive signs evident on the defensive side of the ball, which aren't seen in the boxscore. While San Francisco J.T. O'Sullivan has been playing well, it's still a little too early to be calling him the next great 49'ers QB. Additionally, with offensive coordinator Martz leaving Detroit for San Francisco, both teams are still quite new to their offensive systems. While Martz has the 49'ers throwing the ball more this year, running back Frank Gore still remains a focal point of the offense and one game doesn't prove that Martz is quite as pass-happy as he was several years ago. Note that the 49'ers have seen the UNDER go 10-3 since 2006 when playing a game with an over/under line in the 42.5 to 49 range. As for the Lions, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-5-1 their last 21 road games with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. These teams last met in 2006 and combined for just 32 points. Look for the final score to be much lower-scoring than expected once again. *Annihilator
UNDER packers/cowboys

Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 9/21/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Green Bay and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. Last week's results have helped cause tonight's over/under line to be extremely high - the highest on the Week 3 board. I believe that it's too high. It's important not to over-react to one week. Yes, these teams have shown they can score. They aren't going to score the type of points they did last week every time out though. Additionally, we've seen that both defenses are capable of being excellent. Prior to Monday's shootout, the Cowboys had gone into Cleveland and limited the Browns to 10 points and 205 total yards. As for the Packers, they held the Vikings to just three first half points in Week 1 and repeated that performance by limiting the Lions to just three first half points last week. A quick look at the Packers' last 20 home games shows that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 46.5 points. Seventeen of those 20 games produced 48 combined points or less. As for the Cowboys, they've only seen one of their past 20 road games have an over/under line above 50 - a December game at Detroit last year which had an over/under line of 50.5. Fourteen of those 20 games produced 51 combined points or less. The last three all finished UNDER the total with scores of 20-13, 27-6 and 28-10. Look for this evening's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again as the final combined score stays beneath the inflated number. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY
20 Dime Patriots

5 Dime Packers



FREE - Cowboys/Packers OVER

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's

52-13 NFL B-L-O-W-O-U-T OF THE MONTH -- Sunday
At 8:15 PM, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers plus the points over the Dallas Cowboys. Although I've been critical of the Green Bay management for not taking back Brett Favre, I must tip my cap to Aaron Rodgers, who has played extremely well in his two starts vs. Minnesota and Detroit. And perhaps it isn't all that big of a surprise, given that Rodgers played very well last season against these Cowboys after Favre went down with an injury. In last year's game, Rodgers was 18 for 26 for 201 yards and a TD, without any turnovers. And this season, he's completed 70% of his passes, without any interceptions. Off that win at Detroit, the Packers fall into 82-27 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams off road wins. Also, Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 regular season home games, and the Cowboys are 0-5 in their franchise's history at Lambeau Field, with four of those five losses coming by 18+ points. NFL Blowout of the Month on Green Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Las Vegas Insider

The big news coming out of Minneapolis on Wednesday was that Brad Childress and the Minnesota Vikings are turning to veteran Gus Frerotte at QB. After an 0-2 start, the Vikes have benched QB Tarvaris Jackson, who has made 16 career starts. Head coach Childress even went so far as naming Frerotte the starter for the remainder of the season! Jackson was 8-4 as a starter last season, even though he had a 70.8 QB rating. He completed only 30 of 59 passes for 308 yards in two games this year, despite a running game that features Adrian Peterson, who leads NFL in rushing. Vikings fans booed him throughout Sunday's 18-15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts when the Vikings, despite a 160-yard rushing day by Peterson, had to settle for five field goals and blew a 15-0 lead. Frerotte is no star but has completed 54.2 percent of his passes during his career for 19,134 yards and a 74.3 quarterback rating, going 37-44-1 as a starter. Minnesota was a fashionable pick to contend for the NFC title but after a pair of close losses to start the season (also lost 24-19 at Green Bay), this game is critical to the Vikings' hopes of having a successful season. a win here is a MUST, with two road games coming up next (at Tenn and New Orleans). Carolina is off to a 2-0 start, winning both games with fourth quarter come from behind efforts. With Delhomme leading two comebacks (and seemingly looked fine after Tommy John surgery), the Panthers have the better QB but the Vikings have the better rushing game (by far) and arguably the better defense, surely against the run. Carolina gets its best offensive player back for this game in WR Steve Smith but the 2-0 Panthers will be facing a "desperate" 0-2 Minnesota team in this one. In Carolina's "heyday" from '03 (Super Bowl appearance) through '05 (NFC title game appearance), the Panthers went 17-3-2 as a dog in that three-year span. However, the last two years has seen that record "even out," as Carolina is just 8-8-1 as an underdog from the beginning of the '06 season through the first two games of the '08 season. Expect AP to "do his thing" and for Frerotte (at least for this Sunday), to play a very solid game. Handicapping the NFL has a lot to do with 'feel.' I've been against the Vikings in both Week 1 and Week 2 (I'm 2-0) but I feel strongly that the QB change is "the right move" and that after two 4th quarter comebacks, the Panthers are "ripe for the taking."

Las Vegas Insider on the Min Vikings.

[Mr. IWS]

PRIVATE PLAYERS - PPP
4%
tennessee
denver
san francisco

3%
baltimore
atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

PPP free play Mia/NE under
Northcoast free plays Arizona(Pro Play of the week)
Indianapolis(AFC Play of the week)

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne allan Root
Billionaire-Vikings
No-limit-Steelers
Inside circle -Bengals
Money-maker-Saints
Millionaire-Packers
Chairman- Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 55-33 since May 26 with MLB Insiders!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 4:10 ET. The Marlins aren't mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet but with just eight games remaing, they are 5 1/2 games back of the Mets in the wild card race. Last night's 3-2 to loss to the Phillies ended their nine-game winning streak. As for the Phillies, the win was their EIGHTH in nine games, moving them one-half game ahead of the Mets, who lost 4-2 in Atlanta. Almost everyone will remember that last season the Phillies went 13-4 down the stretch and won the NL East on the final day of the regular season, while the Mets lost 12 of their final 17. New York is struggling again this September, as Philadelphia has erased a 3 1/2-game deficit in the division. Philly wouldn't want anyone else other than Jamie Moyer on the mound in this game. The ageless Moyer takes a 14-7 (3.86 ERA) mark into this game and for the season, the Phillies are 20-11 (plus-$821) in his starts. The man just never wears down, as the Phillies are 12-3 in his starts since the break, including wins in each of his last FIVE outings. Then of course, there is his record vs the Marlins. Moyer was on the short end of an 8-2 score at home against Florida on August 5 (he allowed only two ERs in five innings) but that was his first-ever loss to the Marlins, after 10 consecutive wins. That's right, prior to that August 5 game, Moyer was a perfect 10-for-10 against the Marlins (10 starts / 10 wins). The Marlins counter with Chris Volstad (5-3, 3.07 ERA), as the 22-year-old looks to continue his impressive rookie season for Florida. He's been part of the rotation since July 6 and the team is 7-5 in his 12 starts. I like Volstad but I'm betting on the veteran Moyer and a Philadelphia team that's determined to make it deja vu all over again this year, in the NL East. Las Vegas Insider Phi Phillies.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Sunday Night Game of the Month (8-3 start in NFL '08)
My Sunday Night GOM is on the GB Packers at 8:15 ET. Aaron Rodgers came in for an injured Brett Favre last year in a Week 13 Thursday night game between the Packers and Cowboys in Dallas, The Cowboys hung on to win that game 37-27 but it was Rodgers' solid performance in that game which influenced Green Bay management to believe Rodgers was "ready for prime time," thereby setting in motion the so-called "Brett Favre saga" this off-season. Rodgers played fairly well in Week 1's MNF opener but was excellent in Week 2's 48-25 win over Detroit, throwing for 328 yards and three TDs (70.0 percent with four TDs and 0 INTS on the year). WRs Jennings and Driver have each caught 11 balls this year, proving they don't need Brett to be effective. RB Ryan Grant had 92 yards in Week 1 but a hamstring injury held him to just 20 yards (15 attempts) against Detroit. He's not 100 percent but he is expected to be in better shape this week. Dallas has a pretty fair QB of its own in Tony Romo, who has opened by completing 72.6 percent of his passes fro 632 yards (4 TDs / 2 INTs). Romo's looked great, even though Dallas is very weak at WR after Owens (eight catches / 22.0 YPC / 3 TDs). It sure helps him though, that TE Witten (13 catches) is just terrific. Marion Barber (143 YR / 7 catches) is off to a good start and rookie Felix Jones has show lots of potential with 72 YR (6.0 YPC) plus a 38.1 KO return average (including a 98-yard TD). Two strong trends collide in this game, as a Packers have won 19 of their last 22 regular-season games, including a 10-1 record at Lambeau during that stretch. On the flip side, Dallas owns victories in 11 of its last 12 non-playoff road games, losing only a meaningless Week 17 road game at Washington in '07. Neither defense has looked great so far this year but I like Green Bay's 2ndy (two INTs returned for TDs last week) and I'm looking for an excellent effort by that unit Sunday night. On paper, Dallas is the NFC's best team but winning here at Lambeau (in front a national TV audience) will not come easy. The Eagles didn't have too many problems throwing the ball on the Cowboys and Green Bay's receivers are better as a whole than the patchwork group Philadelphia used Monday night. Dallas was able to survive on Monday, despite a pair of costly turnovers by Romo. If the Wisconsin native, who is fulfilling a boyhood dream by playing at historic Lambeau, is shaky (as he has been in big games the last couple of years), the Cowboys could be in real trouble. It probably isn't significant that the Cowboys are 0-5 at Lambeau Field all-time (including playoffs). However, I'm bringing it up so that we'll all know it's not significant that Dallas will be 0-6 all-time at Lambeau after losing Sunday night. Sunday Night Game of the Month 15* GB Packers.

[Mr. IWS]

mcmordie

dolphins - computer boys
titans - off shore steam
steelers - ten dimes
giants - line movers
bengals 'over' - blue chip
chiefs - championship

[Mr. IWS]

SCOTT SPREITZER
INSIDER San Francisco
TKO Miami
TKO St Louis
KO Carolina
5* Kansas City