9-27-08

The Herd:



TCU (+18) 17 – OK28

LSU (23.5) 30 – Miss St 0

Bama (+7) 20 – Geo 23

ND (-1.5) 28 – Purdue 21

Penn St (-14) 36 – Ill 14

[Mr. IWS]

Bettorsworld

3* San Jose +3 over Hawaii - One of the most important stats for any handicapper to be aware of is turnovers. It should come as no surprise that there is a direct correlation between wins and losses and turnover differential. Not just wins and losses straight up, but wins and losses against the spread as well. Sure, in college ball, there are plenty of games where simple talent wins out. But all things being equal, when two teams tangle where the talent level is fairly even, you can be sure that the deciding factor will be a mistake. Most likely a turnover.

Turnovers are rarely accidents. Sure, every once in a while a simple flub will happen. A drop. A wet ball. But most of the times turnovers are created. A defense creates turnovers because they get after the ball and hit hard. A defense creates turnovers because the pass rush is good and they hurry the Quarterback and because the pass coverage is so good downfield that opposing QB's are constantly throwing into coverage. Special teams creates turnovers as a result of great kicking team coverage getting downfield in a hurry and getting after the ball.

Likewise, turnovers are created by the offense and the coaching staff. A poorly coached team, where the left hand doesn't know what the right is doing, generally turns the ball over. A receiver may run a wrong route. A back may go left when the play is to the right and so on and so on. Which brings us to Hawaii. Hawaii is dead last in the nation in turnover margin at -9. To be fair, they had to play Florida in week one and they did turn the ball over 6 times in that one, but there may be more to the story than just getting blown out by one of the best teams in the country.

Hawaii figured to be hurting coming into this year. They have the fewest returning starters in the WAC and a brand new coaching staff including the head man Mcmackin who was the defensive coordinator last year. The new offensive coordinator was a high school coach last year. So we have new coaches, new players and of course new schemes to learn which in turn creates a great opportunity for their to be confusion and ........turnovers. Gone are June Jones and Colt Brennan as well as several other key pieces to the 12-1 season a year ago. No shame in the loss to Florida but they also lost to Oregon State 45-7 and Oregon State lost to Stanford and was blown away by Penn State.

San Jose State on the other hand has played some competitive football at times this year. They trailed 14-12 at Nebraska early in the 4th quarter until a kick return swung the momentum in that one and Nebraska scored 3 td's in the 4 quarter to win 35-12. Statistically, the game was dead even across the board. Last week at Stanford they had a 10-7 lead at the half and trailed 13-10 after 3 before giving up 10 in the 4th quarter. They also own wins over Cal Davis and San Diego State. If there's a problem at San Jose, it's in maintaining a lead late in games.

Huge coaching edge for San Jose. Dick Tomey took Arizona to 7 Bowl games in the 90's and has won where ever he has been, including Hawaii. He also guided this San Jose team to as 9-4 mark in just his 2nd year here, 2006. Again, a well coached team is not likely to beat themselves. Also, having coached in Hawaii, he knows how to handle his kids once there. Knows the distractions and what to keep them away from to maintain focus.

Ultimately, we doubt Hawaii is as bad as they have looked. However, we don't think they are very good either. San Jose appears to be the better team thus far. At worst, these two are fairly even which brings is back to the coaching and the turnovers. Hawaii is a work on progress. A new project. San Jose has everything in place.

Lastly we bring up the punching bag syndrome. We mention this quite a bit over the course of a college football season. We mention it, because it's an important factor often overlooked. When one team dominates another for many years, when the chance to turn the tables presents itself, teams are likely to take advantage. In this series, Hawaii has won 7 straight years. Which means there's not a senior on this San Jose State team that's ever beaten Hawaii. No one wants to go thru their entire college football career having never beaten a team they have had 4 or 5 cracks at. So there's added incentive.

If you doubt these teams are at least equal in talent, consider this. Last year, in Hawaii's 12-1 year, with June Jones and Colt Brennan and all the rest of the weapons, San Jose State took them to overtime where Hawaii pulled it out 42-35. San Jose has 7 returning starters on offense and 6 on defense. Hawaii has just 4 on each side of the ball.

This year Hawaii is averaging fewer than 300 yards per game on offense, QB Tyler Graunke has an injured throwing hand (think turnovers) and they are rushing for only 3.2 yards per carry. San Jose State held San Diego State to 6 yards rushing.

All is not perfect for San Jose. They are having trouble late in games. Last week Stanford got aggressive defensively and had 6 sacks in the 2nd half and had San Jose at -24 yards in the 4th quarter. But we think they are the more talented and better coached team in this one and have far more positives to draw on than Hawaii does at this stage of the season. We're looking for San Jose to break the 7 game losing streak and win this one straight up and we'll gladly take the +3 as a bonus. 3* San Jose State +3 over Hawaii



1* Virginia +7 over Duke - ** (Line moved to +6.5 most places before we could get this out. We're only going to use this as a 1* play either way. We prefer +7 but still a play at +6. )We're not here to knock Duke. There's only one way to go for this program and that's up. They have already have a smany wins this year as the last 3 years combined, so hats off to David Cutcliffe and company. Duke is playing some good solid football on both sides of the ball and figures to be competitive, although it won't be easy the rest of the way.

What we have here is a major overreaction to each teams results thus far. Virginia is 1-2. They beat Richmond but were obliterated by USC and Uconn by a combined score of 97-17 giving up over 500 yards of offense to both the Huskies and Trojans. Meanwhile Duke is 2-1 to start the year and has folks paying attention. So, sure, if you just look at the scoreboard and the stats, Duke is deserving of the 7 point favorite role. However, if you dig a little deeper, and attach team names to those results, perhaps not. Duke beat James Madison and Navy and lost to Northwestern. Not so impressive really. Not compared to USC and Uconn. Point being, if it wasn't Duke, no one would care. They'd simply say this team hasn't beaten anyone yet.

The reason Duke is getting some attention is because they are 10-82 straight up this decade. That's right. 10 wins and 82 losses. Not very good huh? Yet here they are, favored by 7 points this week. They are favored based on their two wins and the fact that Virginia got blown out in their two losses. But really folks, how much is a team going to change in one year? This isn't pro ball where teams go from worst to first in a year. Change in college football is gradual. 2 wins one year. 5 the next. 7 or 8 after that, and then, who knows.

Duke has been the worst team in college football for many years. While they may improve a little each year, don't expect too many more wins from them this year. As a matter of fact, this week against Virginia may be their last legitimate shot at another win all year looking at their schedule. They may in fact get that win too, as Virginia certainly isn't playing very well. It's simply not logical though, to think Virginia doesn't have a good shot here as well. If anything this one figures to be close.

Virginia was 9-4 a year ago. They were involved in a ton of close games. They have won 57 games this decade. That's 47 more than Duke. They get better talent through their recruiting efforts than Duke does. They have some key holes to fill but still return half of their offense and defense from a year ago, a team that aside from going 9-4, beat Duke 24-13. They have outscored Duke by an average 20 points per game the last 19 years and have gone 17-2 straight up during that time.

Playing and losing to USC is actually a positive here. We talk about this quite a bit. You play a team like USC, especially early in the year, and everything you have been working on in practice falls apart when you try and implement it in the game. USC is just too good. But then you get in there against a team like Duke, and bingo, things start to work they way they were designed.

Virginia has some problems for sure but let's not get too carried away with either of these two teams results after 3 games. Virginia is more than likely not as bad as they have looked. Duke is more than likely not as good as they have looked. What you more than likely have here, is two mediocre to bad teams. One on their way up, one on their way down. The most likely scenario here is a close game that comes down to the 4th quarter. We're getting some added value here based on season to date results and at the end of the day, this is still Duke. 1-11 last year. 0-12 the year before that. And so on, and so on. 1* Virginia +7

[Mr. IWS]

Bettorsworld

3* Alabama +7 over Georgia - There are still some 7's out there. In some spots you'll have to lay -115 to get it, but you want 7 here, not 6.5. This game has all the indications of being a classic SEC primetime battle that comes down to a last second field goal to win it. As a matter of fact, there's far more evidence to support that outcome than a one sided affair.

One glaring reason is Alabama's history of playing close games. While Nick Saban is getting a lot of credit for this due to last years results, a closer look shows us that perhaps the talent in general, at Alabama over the years, deserves the real credit. For instance, one stat being thrown around this week by tout sheets is that Saban and Bama only lost one game by more than a touchdown last year, in Saban's first year. But dig a little deeper and you'll find plenty of close games before Saban got there. How about this. If you gave Alabama +7 points in every game for the last 5 years, not including this year, they would be 41-13 against the spread. If you just took the last 3 years, they would be 26-5 ATS.

Close games and Alabama go hand in hand. The important thing to remember is that during that 5 year stretch, Alabama had some mediocre results in the win loss column. 4-9, 6-6 and 6-7 mixed in with 2 winning years. So while Bama was having losing years, and firing coaches, they were still keeping it close on the scoreboard. That's a testament to the talent that goes to Alabama. In Sabans first year, they started turning some of those close losses into wins. This year their wins aren't even close, winning by an average margin of 36-9 and while the competition level can be questioned, they did knock of Clemson in week one.

People like to mention Quarterbacks and Running Backs when they talk about a football team and their successes or failures, but the unsung heroes are always the offensive and defensive lines. Without the guys in the trenches, we wouldn't know the names of these star QB's and Backs. This is precisely where Alabama is getting it done, both lines. If you've watched ESPN at all this week you've likely seen footage of Bama Nose Tackle, 365 pound Terrence Cody. This kid can disrupt an entire offense singlehandedly. While Georgia will no doubt spend some extra time on him this week, what can you really do? Focus too much on him and that opens the door for someone else to get to Georgia QB Matt Stafford.

There is no knock on Georgia here. But there's clearly more pressure on them. They were handed a lofty #1 ranking before a single game was played this year. Often times teams have a hard time living up to expectations when that happens. But, so far so good. We really have just two games to judge, last week at Arizona State and their previous game at South Carolina. They dominated Arizona State last week and held South Carolina to just 18 yards rushing but the Gamecocks were able to move the ball through the air to the tune of 271 yards

Georgia's home field advantage figures to be even more pronounced this week. It's their "blackout game". It's only happened 3 times in modern history. The team will wear it's black jerseys as will every person who walks through the gates of the stadium. It's a prime time, National TV affair and the crew from ESPN will be their live all day. The place will be a mad house. There's a reason they call it a home field advantage and that advantage WILL come into play Saturday Night.

All the same, we're comfortable taking a touchdown with Bama. If this were a court case being decided before a jury, all the evidence would be pointing towards a close game with an outright upset not an impossibility. These are the kinds of games we like to play. Smash Mouth, old fashioned SEC football. Talent on both sides of the ball. Neither team beating themselves. Both teams are plus in turnovers with Bama at +4 and Georgia at +3. The talent in this one is even. Mistakes and big plays will decide this one. We'll take our chances. 3* Alabama +7





2* Tennessee +6.5 over Auburn - If handicapping football games were easy, we could use logic as simple as the following and do quite well. Tennessee lost to UCLA who then got blown out 59-0 by BYU. Then Tennessee beat a weak UAB team before getting blown out once again by Florida last week. On the other hand, Auburn started out 3-0 with a defense playing superb ball, and SHOULD have won last week at home against LSU to go 4-0. Easy stuff. Automatic play on Auburn huh? Well, maybe not.

These are the types of situations that sure aren't easy to play as a bettor. But they can provide us with some extra value due to the results of both squads year to date. Let's first take into consideration the emotional state of these two teams. Auburn was sky high last week for LSU. National TV audience. Chance to go 4-0 and knock off LSU. What makes it worse is that they had the lead a couple of times and should have won the game. The loss totally deflated this team. To quote coach Tuberville, "We’ve got a disappointed bunch of guys in the locker room. We felt like the way we played at times, we should have won it. They made a few more plays than we did"

Tennessee on the other hand figures to be loose. What do they have to lose? Everyone thinks they are terrible. While they also had a disappoint result last week, it's a little different when the score is 30-6 and you were never in the game to begin with. It's disappointing, sure, but not as disappointing as the Auburn loss. The Vols had already tasted defeat once this season and no one was mentioning their names and National Title in the same breath.

So, so far we have a slight mental edge in favor of the Vols and we have some added value in the line as a result of the Vols score last week not being close while Auburn could have won their game. But how about the talent that these two bring to the table? Well, first let's revisit last season. In case anyone forgot, the Vols started out last season in similar fashion. In their first 3 games, they were blown out by Cal and by Florida and beat So Miss to start 1-2. Just like this year, they were calling for Fulmer to be fired (someone called a radio show Fulmer was on this week and asked if he was going to resign) The Vols responded to last years 1-2 star by winning 8 of their next 9 games and landing themselves in the SEC title game.

Fulmer gets bashed quite a bit. But his teams have always responded for him when their backs were up against the wall. In 2005 they went 5-6 which is unacceptable in Vol Land. Fulmer was all but done if he didn't produce. The team responded with a 9-4 mark in 2006 and the last years 10-4 capped with Bowl game win over Wisconsin. You don't last 17 years in Tennessee without doing something right.

The Vols lost QB Eric Ainge which has hurt. But there's 8 starters on this offense from a year ago and six on the defensive side of the ball. This team will score some points this year you can be sure of that. Which brings us to where we feel the Vols have a shot this week. The Tennessee defense actually played well last week. Sometimes the score on the scoreboard doesn't tell the whole story. They held Florida to just two offensive touchdowns. Florida had a few field goals and a punt return for a TD. 3 Turnovers and a ton of penalties added to the Vols problems. Each team had 16 first downs and about 250 yards of total offense.

Auburn on the other hand, came back down to earth a tad defensively against the first real offensive threat it has faced this year. They gave up 178 rushing yards and 220 thru the air while offensively they had just 70 yards on the ground. So this defense has some holes. As long as this Auburn offense is a work in progress, it opens the door for teams like the Vols to stay close. If the Vols can slow down Tebow and the Gators they should be able to handle a brand new Auburn spread offense with just a few games under their belts.

The potential to keep it close combined with the mental edge the Vols are likely to have has us taking the +6.5 here. To use another quote, this one from Auburn QB Chris Todd - "It was real exciting. There’s nothing like it,” Todd said. “The adrenaline rush, playing on that stage was awesome. You’d like to win, but it came down to the end, and those are the type of games you like to play in"

That was last week. Now that the adrenaline rush has worn off, do you think Auburn will be as high for the Vols this week? Or perhaps a little flat?

2* Tennessee +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
188 Oklahoma St. -17.0 (-110) BetUS vs 187 Troy

Matty O'Shea | CFB MoneyLine Single-Dime Bet
179 Nevada (+160) BetUS vs 180 UNLV

Matty O'Shea | CFB Total Double-Dime Bet
146 Georgia / 145 Alabama Under 45.0 BetUS

[Mr. IWS]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
?a considerable amount of time,? with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed 3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls 56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his 23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403 yards in the Broncos? last 3 games. WMU?s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against the Owls last week). Temple?s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn?t in good health, either, as four starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13

10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
SCOUT s report last week?s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O?Brien. N.C. State had been giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for. The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall.
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21

10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in ?the pits,? is one of the few teams that figures to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina?s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red Elephants haven?t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban?s tenure.
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20

10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Big Ten SCOUT s tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week, as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines? improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame) to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident, hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7. Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with Wolverines? speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3 FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20



HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (+8) at Iowa?Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...OHIO STATE (-18?) vs. Minnesota?Buckeyes already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...OKLAHOMA (-18) vs. Tcu?Sooners, who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam Bradford running OU?s no-huddle offense...NEW MEXICO STATE (+3?) vs. New Mexico?With Lobos? Donovan Porterie gone for the season, QB edge in this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State?s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...WASHINGTON (+12) at Dallas?Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.

[Mr. IWS]

NORTHCOAST

Power Sweep

4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17

[Mr. IWS]

VSAO - Vernon Croy CFB

9/27/2008 SAN JOSE STATE 3

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond
1 2008-09-23 RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Pick # 1
Ohio State (-18.0)

[Mr. IWS]

docs 8 unit play
Doc sports :

NCAA Game of the Year!

8-Unit Game of the Year. #142 Take Washington -3.5 over Stanford (10 pm)

The Huskies opened up the season with three very difficult games, but there is no shame in losing at Autzen to Oregon, playing basically into overtime with a very skilled BYU team, or even against No. 2 Oklahoma. That’s just a tough schedule to begin the year. However, hosting Stanford, Washington will get in the win column and turn in a very strong game for fans and supporters. On the road this year Stanford has been outscored 31-72, while having a -4 turnover ratio and being outgained by over 400 yards. For the Huskies, Jake Locker has been waiting for a game to breakout and against the Cardinal he will have his opportunity to do just that. He is a do-it-all threat who can completely shine for Washington, and I think he will really take center stage and carry the Huskies to the win. I think Washington is better than what we have seen so far against extremely difficult competition. Against a lesser team we see UW come through with the cover and a convincing victory.

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
Spylock

NCAA
DateTime Game Pick Stars


09/27/08 Northwestern
12:00 PM Iowa -8 Iowa -8 1


09/27/08 Tennessee
3:35 PM Auburn -6.5 Auburn -6.5 1


09/27/08 Troy Troy +17 1
7:00 PM Oklahoma State -17


09/27/08 TCU TCU +18.5 1
7:05 PM Oklahoma -18.5


09/27/08 Illinois
8:10 PM Penn State -16 Penn State -16 1

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker's 13-0 ATS NCAA Perfect Situation Play is on OHIO STATE

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

College Football Picks
9/27/2008
11:00:00 AM OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (-19.5)
over Minnesota Golden Gophers
ASA 3-Star #138 Ohio State (-19.5) over Minnesota - 11:00 am CST **note time change**

Watch the Buckeyes break out in this game. They have not covered yet this year and that’s part of the reason we’re getting great value here. Last year, OSU was favored by 24.5 points AT Minnesota. They crushed the Gophs in that game 30-7 ripping through the Minny defense for 250 yards rushing (5.4 yards per carry). The ground squirrels, on the other hand, could get nothing going on the ground netting just 45 yards for the game (1.6 yards per carry). That forced QB Adam Weber to try and make things happen through the air resulting in two interceptions. A similar scenario will play out this weekend at the Horseshoe. OSU has not looked very impressive the last three weekends which has thwarted their public perception. Reality is, this team is still loaded with veterans and nearly every key player is back from last year’s squad that played in the National Championship game. They can be forgiven for their incredible flat spots before and after their “Clash in the Coliseum” with USC. Those games were against Ohio and Troy, neither of which had the Bucks full attention. Their loss @ USC was embarrassing, however we’re not so sure you couldn’t pick any team in the nation and put them in that game and get the same USC dominating results. In other words, the loss simply reiterated how good USC really is rather than how bad the Buckeyes are. Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor has now had a few games to get his feet wet and he will provide the Minnesota defense with huge problems. While the Minnesota defense had no option but to be better than last year when it was THE WORST in the nation, I think we’ll notice this Saturday that the supposed improvement probably isn’t all that great. The Gophs are 4-0 and just might be one of the worst undefeated teams in the nation right now. They have played a very weak schedule with two MAC teams, a Sun Belt team and a Division 1AA team. Last week’s win over Florida Atlantic might have looked impressive, however the Owls were in a terrible spot having to travel to the northern reaches of the nation for the second straight week after visiting Michigan State the previous Saturday. The defenses they have faced are not even in the same zip code as OSU’s stop unit. The Gophers have also been helped greatly by turnovers and field position thus far as 11 of their 19 TD drives have been less than 50-yards. Take out the USC game and this Buckeye defense has allowed just 214 YPG. Minnesota will have a rough go of it on offense this weekend. OSU has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings out right. Since 1983, these teams have met 10 times at the Horseshoe. The Bucks have won 9 of those games. If you disregard their only home loss to Minnesota during that stretch, OSU has won by an average score of 42-7. Expect another dominating performance from the Buckeyes at home on Saturday.


9/27/2008
2:30:00 PM Houston Cougars (+11)
over EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
ASA 4-Star play #133 Houston (+11) over East Carolina - 2:30 pm CST Check back after 4:15 pm today for this analysis.



9/27/2008
9:00:00 PM WASHINGTON HUSKIES (-3)
over Stanford Cardinal

ASA 6-Unit #142 @ Washington (-3) over Stanford, Saturday, Sept. 27th

The Huskies are a MUCH better team than their 0-3 record indicates. They have played a brutal schedule losing @ Oregon and at home to BYU and Oklahoma. Those three teams have a combined record of 10-1 with the only loss coming from Oregon last Saturday mainly because the Ducks were down to their fourth string QB vs. Boise. Washington has now had two full weeks to recover and prepare for a 100% ABSOLUTE must win game. We give a big advantage to the Huskies in this one. Stanford is 2-2 on the year but they have been out gained by an intimidating 469 total yards in those four games combined. The only team they have out yarded was San Jose State last week. That game was tied 10-10 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter before the Cardinal pulled away in the final frame to win 23-10. Stanford’s only other win was at home in the opener vs. Oregon State. They got an early Christmas present there as the Beavers turned the ball over 3 times and had 100 yards in penalties. Stanford gave up almost 500 yards in that game and were out gained by almost 200 yards. The Cardinal gave up 72 points in their two road losses, both ASA’s Pac Ten Game of the Week This section of 1st & Goal has our Big Ten Game of the Week. Located in the heart of the Big Ten country we have great ties or contacts in this region and have always done well with our Big Ten picks. See who we like this week below. blow out losses. As we said, Washington has had a tough go of it schedule wise. In our opinion, they’ve played the toughest early season slate in the land. They can be forgiven for losing @ Oregon, who was full strength at the time, as most come up well short in Autzen Stadium. Their 28-27 home loss to a very good BYU team was a dagger. If you remember, the Huskies scored on the last play of the game to “tie” the game. However, the official threw a flag for celebration (horrible call) and the Cougs then blocked was essentially a 35-yard extra point. The UW simply could not emotionally recover from that loss by the following week when they were blasted by a great Oklahoma team. With a very good QB in Jake Locker, we look for Washington to get some much needed relief this week playing a defense that had allowed 100 points in three games entering last week’s game vs. an overmatched San Jose State team. UW has dominated this series winning 19 of the 23 meetings since 1980. That includes an easy 27- 9 win last year @ Stanford. The Huskies have also covered 62% of those 23 contests. Stanford has historically been a road struggler with a record of 9-25 SU their last 34 as a visitor. Washington gets this must win and easier than many think.

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Sterling Week 5 NCAA Picks

Oklahoma 46 TCU 13
Florida St. 31 Colorado 13
Alabama 23 Georgia 20
Nebraska 27 Va. Tech 17

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

1 STAR: (961) COLORADO (+$195) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $195)
7:10PM Central Time

1 STAR: (955) WASHINGTON (+$223) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $223)
2:55PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning
20* buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

7:45p Teddy Covers Alabama +7.0 / 3 units
3:30p Teddy Covers Houston +11.0 / 3 units
8:00p Teddy Covers Illinois +16.0 / 4 units
12:00p Teddy Covers Maryland +11.0 / 3 units
3:30p Teddy Covers Tennessee +7.0 / 3 units
3:30p Teddy Covers UL Lafayette +20.5 / 3 units
10:00p Teddy Covers Washington -3.0 / 6 units

[Mr. IWS]

Dave M@linsky

GAME: Army @ Texas A&M Sep 27, 2008 12:30PM

4* ARMY over TEXAS A&M

Games in this pointspread range have to be broken down differently from others, because of the obvious talent mismatch. These ATS outcomes are decided more based on the intensity of the teams, and it should not come as a surprise that we have landed here, because the service academy teams have been good to our pockets for a couple of decades when we could isolate the right spots. These are disciplined athletes that are going to play hard for the full 60 minutes regardless of how the scoreboard reads, which is exactly what you want in an underdog in this price range, while at the same team the superior team is also more inclined to back off early, and not embarrass a service academy. With Army this week we get even more.

The Black Knights are 5-0 ATS as underdogs in the state of Texas the past six seasons, and we have put many of those results into our portfolio. There is a prime reason for those showings – they annually get more players from this state than anywhere else, and this season is no different, with 27 Texans on the roster, including five starters. These trips mean something special to these athletes, and this one even more so because of Hurricane Ike. A lot of those Army players are from areas that were impacted, and we will let coach Stan Brock take it from there -

“It will be a big deal because this is the first time that these guys have seen their families since the hurricane went through there. Hopefully, some of the freshmen can step up in practice and make the road trip. We have six freshmen that we are hoping can travel so they can go home and see their family.”

The energy that those freshmen brought to the practices this week is something that will be infectious for the entire team, and veteran starting guard Brandon Cox, a Texan, echoes the sentiments - “Going home, seeing a bunch of family, having everyone come to the game, it’s going to be fun, going to be exciting. I’ve been to Kyle Field two or three times with my grandfather, he’s an alum there. I’ve been to a couple of games and the atmosphere is unbelievable.”

The key on the field is that the Black Knights also help to tactically get the game home as well. Brock has gone to an all-out option package on offense, looking to slow the game tempo down whenever possible. That has led to some stodgy offensive snap counts through the first three games, keyed by an Army offensive ratio of 161 running plays vs. only 39 passes. That will not change here – they will stay with the ground attack regardless of the game situation, and that will severely reduce the opportunities that the favored Aggies will have to get near this pointspread. Making it even more difficult is that A&M simply is not very good, particularly in the area of rush defense, which matters so much this week.

Texas A&M has already lost outright to Arkansas State on this field, and was not competitive in last week’s 41-23 loss to Miami, a game that was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. The Aggies scored on the first snap from scrimmage, a 62-yard touchdown pass from Jerrod Johnson to Mike Goodson, and then were bullied by an embarrassing 41-3 fashion until the Hurricanes backed off late in the game. Note that in the only A&M win it was a +3 turnover advantage at New Mexico that did the trick (the Lobos led 370-236 in total offense), and that this defense is allowing 210 yards per game overland, at an alarming 5.7 yards per carry. That weakness enables Army to get some first downs and keep the clock ticking, which turns this pointspread into Mt. Everest. And even should the Aggies get a few big plays to get near the number, Mike Sherman is not the kind of coach to pile it on here, particularly with the Big 12 opener at Oklahoma State immediately on deck. He would be more than satisfied to get a win by far less than this spread, and to get his starters out of the game as early as possible.

[Mr. IWS]

glenn mcgrew
tv game of month penn st
mismatch game of month south carolina

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Canadian Lock FB
3 units British Columbia -12.5 v. Hamilton

[Mr. IWS]

Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence 63-0 ATS No.1 CFB Games Of The Week: Check this out - all THREE of Marc's No.1 College Football Favorite, Underdog and Revenge Game of the Week winners are supported with amazing winning angles inside the games that together are an incredible 63-0! Get them all right now and enjoy the weekend with Marc - you'll be glad you did!

Game: Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers
Reason: Play On: Tennessee Note: Tennessee, our No. 1 College Football Underdog Game of the Week, is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in games off a loss of more than 7 points under Phil Fulmer, including 9-0 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 6 points. On the flip side, Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville is 1-13 ATS at home against an opponent off a loss of 17 or more points, including 0-11 if the foe owns a win percentage of .250 or more. Grab the points with the Vols in this upset maker.

Game: Wisconsin at Michigan Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Michigan
Reason: Play On: Michigan Note: Michigan, our No. 1 College Football Revenge Game of the Week, plays host to Wisconsin with revenge on their minds from a 16-point loss as 3-point road favorites last year. Aside from having NEVER been favored against the Wolverines in the 'Big House' in Ann Arbor, the Badgers are 1-16 SU on this field since 1965. To top it off, Michigan is 25-1 SU in its last 26 conference openers, with the one loss by 3 points - making them 26-0 to this number. Toss is Rich Rodriguez' 7-0 SU mark at home in games with rest and suddenly this game has all the making of a Live Home Dog win.

Game: Colorado St. at California Sep 27 2008 6:00PM
Prediction: California
Reason: Play On: California Note: California, our No. 1 College Football Favorite Game of the Week, returns home their stunning loss at Maryland two weeks ago as 14-point favorites to host Colorado State who enters off a SU home underdog win last week. With that we note that home teams in Game Four playing with a week of rest against a non-conference opponent off a win are 19-2 ATS, including 17-0 ATS if the host is off a win or loss of less than 20 and the visitor did not toss a shutout in its win. Lay the lumber with the Bears in this blowout.