9-29-08

JB's Computer Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers -6

Erik Scheponik ( THE MAX NEWSLETTER)

Monday, September 29th, 2008
Ravens @Steelers Under The Total
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
No line has been posted on this game yet due to the
uncertain status of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger
who suffered a hand injury against Philadelphia on
Sunday. Big Ben and the Black and Gold offense
were rendered surprisingly ineffective at Philly as
they could muster only 6 points on 180 yards. They
struggled mightily with Eagles’ defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson’s blitz packages and it won’t be any
easier here against Rex Ryan’s attacking defense.
However, Pittsburgh can afford to be more patient
with the running game here, knowing that the
Ravens offense is far less capable than Donovan
McNabb and the Eagles. Now the line will certainly
adjust downward if Byron Leftwich is under center
instead of Roethlisberger, but that will create a more
cautious and probably punchless Pittsburgh attack,
as Leftwich will be a sitting duck for Baltimore. I
expect Pittsburgh to attempt to win this game with
its defense, more worried about field position than
going up top with the passing game.
The Ravens will likely do the same thing, as
subjecting Joe Flacco to Dick Lebeau’s blitz packages
any more than they have to just wouldn’t be fair at
this point of the rookie’s career. The Ravens lack
weapons on the outside, but have a very deep
backfield with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron Mclain, and
Ray Rice. With those three healthy, they won’t mind
as much as some teams repeatedly plunging it into
the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense. The Baltimore
defense looks as strong as ever, as they’ve allowed
only 333 yards TOTAL in their two games thus far.
As I said last week, until they wear down in
December, I expect them to be top 5 on that side of
the ball. Last week I recommended Baltimore Under in these
pages. It was a winner at the opening price, but a
loser if you bet it on Sunday. One of Baltimore’s
scores was a defensive touchdown. They face a
much stiffer defense this week, and I expect this to
be a smashmouth type affair. Both teams will run
and run some more vs. defenses that simply have
not been run on in years. Neither team wants to
play from behind thus neither will want to make the
first mistake. I expect the number to be
somewhere around 36 with Rothelisberger starting,
and most likely 33.5 or 34 if he’s not. Either way,
the call is Under as the first one to 17 may just be
the winner here.

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (2-3)



5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh
is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.

THE GOLD SHEET (5-6)



KEY RELEASES

PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13—Kudos to Joe Flacco for his
hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs
(ask Atlanta’s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers’ zone
blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS
Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco
(who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect
a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week’s
loss at Philly. Steelers “over” 42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3)
(07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)
(07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)

Doug Williams NFL Picks Sept. 26




Baltimore Raves (+5) over the Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) -- Take the road dogs on MNF this week. The Ravens D is NASTY and will quite possibly eat Ben alive.

Fairway Jay

10* Steelers
10* Ravens/steelers Under

Pointwise Phones


3* Steelers

THE RED SHEET


NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Steelers

WILD BILL

Steelers -7 1/2 (5 units)

Advance Analysis

1* Baltimore

Sixth Sense Sports

*********** NOT A BEST BET


PITTSBURGH –5.5 Baltimore 33.5

Baltimore dominated Cleveland last week in their 28-10 win, out gaining Cleveland 4.3yppl to 3.0yppl. They allowed Cleveland just 2.3yps, while throwing for 6.1yps themselves. Pittsburgh was beaten pretty badly at Philadelphia, getting out gained 4.1yppl to 3.0yppl. Neither team is doing much on offense this year and playing very strong defense. Baltimore averages just 5.1yps against 6.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow just 2.7yps against 4.1yps and 3.0yppl against 3.9yppl. Pittsburgh averages just 5.2yps against 6.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl but allows just 2.8ypr against 3.7ypr, 4.5yps against 5.2yps and 3.9yppl against 4.7yppl. Willie Parker will miss this game and Ben Roethlisberger should play but isn’t entirely healthy. In the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh is now 21-0 SU during the regular season when they are favored by five points or more at home. Eighteen of those twenty one games produced wins of nine points or more, with the exception of a one point win over Baltimore a few years ago, a three point win over Miami in the mud game last year and a three point win over Cleveland that they completely dominated but kick returns and an interception return kept Cleveland in the game. They are 16-4-1 ATS during that span. In other words, when they are supposed to win, they do so in convincing fashion. Baltimore qualifies in a 39-12-3 situation. Numbers favor Baltimore by 1.5 points and predict about 33 points. I would consider Baltimore but the team trend on Pittsburgh is worth noting and this will be the first road start for Flacco, the starting quarterback for Baltimore and I’m not sure what that will bring for the Ravens. PITTSBURGH 17 BALTIMORE 16







THIS GUY IS 18-4 ON HIS BEST BETS IN THE NFL THIS YEAR

UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT A BEST BET

POINTWISE NEWSLETTER


MONDAY

PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - (8:35) -- First RG for the Ravens, who have
opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they
allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs;
631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the
Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 RYs
the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted
a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7
ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.

THE SPORTS REPORTER

*PITTSBURGH over BALTIMORE by 11
If you know anyone else with the nerve and confidence to have made the Baltimore Ravens,
3-13 ATS last season, a Best Bet vs. the pointspread in each of their first two games this season…
well, you don’t know anyone else, so let’s forget that notion. You’d have to have known
someone else who over the summer wrote a book called How to Beat the Pro Football
Pointspread (coming out soon, October they say), and nobody else did. At 2-0 with that “buy
low” strategy, let’s forget about making a third consecutive big push on Baltimore, because
that had already been done anyway. They would have beaten Houston in Week 2 except for
Hurricane Ike, but that opportunity will come again in November. This has been stated before,
in the forecasts for each win and in the forecast of the postponed game: “You do not want
the Ravens against a good defense.” Pittsburgh? Good defense. Flacco Joe, whaddya know?
Not enough to warrant green light against blitzes of Dick LeBeau. PITTSBURGH, 21-10.

WINNING POINTS

Pittsburgh over Baltimore by 14 (Monday)
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (check status) is taking a heavy
pounding in every game as his offensive line gets its act together.
Baltimore’s defense is playing well again, but this is a real tough venue and
spot for Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.The Ravens’ offensive line
also is in a state of transition and could have problems handling the crowd
noise and Pittsburgh’s defensive team speed. The Steelers’ 3-4 defense is
tough to run on. So Flacco will need to make plays.The Ravens are 1-8 ATS
in their last nine away games, 1-4 ATS as a road ‘dog. PITTSBURGH 27-13.

Mighty Quinn

White Sox

Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Monday, September 29, 2008

SURE THING BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Floyd -230 2:05 EST

JEFFERSONSPORTS
3-1 yest NFL
4-2-1 sat NCAA FB
7-3-1 for the weekend
NFL EARLY RELEASE FOR MON
PITTSBURGH-5

Monday, September 29

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BALTIMORE (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 9/29/2008, 8:30 PM


Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS in road games
Pittsburgh: 21-9 ATS at home off non-conf game

Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 74-46 ATS (+23.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Vegas Hotsheet -

Balt/Pitt Over 34

Dunkel Index

Game 219-220: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 128.016; Pittsburgh 139.648
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Over

Handicapper: Tony Karpinski
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 8:35 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -5/-104 Pittsburgh Steelers Play Title: 5* BEST BET on Monday Night NFL on ESPN
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Steelers are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with revenge.
The Steelers are coming off a tough 15-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Steelers allowed 9 sacks against the Eagles and I expect the offensive line to play much better tonight. The Steelers have all week to make the necessary corrections to give quarterback Ben Roethlisberger time to throw the ball. The Steelers 2nd ranked defense is allowing 12.7 points per game and has intercepted six passes. They will put a lot of pressure on Ravens rookie QB.

The Ravens offense has been anemic so far this season. The Ravens are second to last in passing averaging just 125 yards per game. Flacco has one of the lowest quarterback rating at 55.7. He has thrown for just 258 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Look for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss.