Erik Scheponik ( THE MAX NEWSLETTER)

Monday, September 29th, 2008
Ravens @Steelers Under The Total
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
No line has been posted on this game yet due to the
uncertain status of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger
who suffered a hand injury against Philadelphia on
Sunday. Big Ben and the Black and Gold offense
were rendered surprisingly ineffective at Philly as
they could muster only 6 points on 180 yards. They
struggled mightily with Eagles’ defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson’s blitz packages and it won’t be any
easier here against Rex Ryan’s attacking defense.
However, Pittsburgh can afford to be more patient
with the running game here, knowing that the
Ravens offense is far less capable than Donovan
McNabb and the Eagles. Now the line will certainly
adjust downward if Byron Leftwich is under center
instead of Roethlisberger, but that will create a more
cautious and probably punchless Pittsburgh attack,
as Leftwich will be a sitting duck for Baltimore. I
expect Pittsburgh to attempt to win this game with
its defense, more worried about field position than
going up top with the passing game.
The Ravens will likely do the same thing, as
subjecting Joe Flacco to Dick Lebeau’s blitz packages
any more than they have to just wouldn’t be fair at
this point of the rookie’s career. The Ravens lack
weapons on the outside, but have a very deep
backfield with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron Mclain, and
Ray Rice. With those three healthy, they won’t mind
as much as some teams repeatedly plunging it into
the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense. The Baltimore
defense looks as strong as ever, as they’ve allowed
only 333 yards TOTAL in their two games thus far.
As I said last week, until they wear down in
December, I expect them to be top 5 on that side of
the ball. Last week I recommended Baltimore Under in these
pages. It was a winner at the opening price, but a
loser if you bet it on Sunday. One of Baltimore’s
scores was a defensive touchdown. They face a
much stiffer defense this week, and I expect this to
be a smashmouth type affair. Both teams will run
and run some more vs. defenses that simply have
not been run on in years. Neither team wants to
play from behind thus neither will want to make the
first mistake. I expect the number to be
somewhere around 36 with Rothelisberger starting,
and most likely 33.5 or 34 if he’s not. Either way,
the call is Under as the first one to 17 may just be
the winner here.