10-1-08

Bettorsworld

MLB SERIES PLAYS

You can't make long term gains laying high priced favorites in any sport. You need to concentrate on finding underdogs with value or short priced favs. Betting on a MLB playoff series is no different. With that in mind, as we look at the 3 MLB playoff series with prices posted, we would automatically throw out the Phillies and Cubs. The prices are too high for us to get involved. We'd only consider playing the Brewers or Dodgers in those series. Of the two, the Dodgers present much more value and the series holds some intrigue with Torre managing in the Playoffs for the 13th straight years. The Dodgers are a live dog here. The Cubs took the regular season series 5-2 but Manny Ramirez wasn't there. Manny is the wild card here. The Dodgers have a very good chance to steal a game in Chicago which would also open the door for hedging opportunities for the faint of heart. The better team generally wins out over the course of a 7 game series but the short 5 game first round series opens the door for upsets. We're going to make a 2* play on the Dodgers to win the series at +190 or better.

We're also going to play the Angels to win the series over the Bosox at-120 or better. The Bosox are banged up, Beckett is hurt, and the Angels simply dominated the Sox this year going 8-1 against them. The Angels are the better team and the price is right. If we get a chance we'll have a more thorough write up posted on Bettorsworld tomorrow.

So two Series plays

2* Dodgers +190 over the Cubs

3* Angels -120 over the Bosox

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

(951) MIL Brewers
(952) PHI Phillies
Take "Over"
Philadelphia is not a pitcher's park. It's easy to hit home runs. For Game 1, the Phillies go with their ace in Cole Hamels. Only one team that Hamels pitched more than 12 innings against this season got more hits off him than innings pitched: The Brewers. They got 14 hits in 13 innings off him, with a 4.73 ERA -- higher than his 3.09 ERA for the season. These are two strong offensive teams, with the Brewers ranked 7th in the NL in runs scored, the Phillies third. Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo is only 22 years old and has pitched just 4 innings since May 2. The over is 5-2-1 the last 8 meetings between these teams. This shapes up as an offensive show in Philadelphia. Play the Brewers/Phillies over the total.
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens

10* Boise St.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe MLB Playoffs

Major League Baseball
Phillies -1.5 runs over Brewers +111
Hamels/Gallardo

Angels -125 over Redsox
Lackey/Lester

[Mr. IWS]

Doc’s MLB Playoff Opening Pick
3 Unit Play. #952 Take Philadelphia (-1 ½ RL) over Milwaukee (2:00 pm TBS) Classic example of one team that expects to go the World Series against one team that is just happy to be here. All the Brewers wanted was make the playoffs and they accomplished that, but just barely having to throw CC Sabathia on three days rest three times in a row. Yovani Gallardo will throw for the Brewers and he has pitched just four innings since May 1st. He has good stuff but will not be able to go very long in this game and the Phillies will make him pay when he makes a mistake. Philly was able to set their rotation much better and thus will have ace Cole Hamels on the mound. He will be pitching on regular rest and expect him to come up big ready to get the disappointment of last season out of there mouth. Philly swept the Brewers right out of town when they met in September winning all four games and will take a commanding 1-0 lead in this series with a convincing victory

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Malinsky

10/1/2008

3* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (**SERIES**)-175 over Milwaukee Brewers (**SERIES**)

The Brewers are a most fragile item heading into playoffs. Instead of being a confident side that has the momentum of achieving a post-season berth, they did not play well at all down the stretch, merely riding the massive shoulders of C. C. Sabathia to get here. Note that they were 6-14 in the last 20 games that were not started by Sabathia, and that with Ben Sheets injured, and without a closer that they can rely on under this pressure, the pitching is a mess. Yovani Gallardo becomes the go-to guy for the opener, despite only having thrown 67 pitches since May 1st, a four-inning stint vs. the weak Pirate offense last week. Then, of course, it becomes C. C. time again, but on Thursday he will be pitching on three days rest for the 4th straight time, including an exhausting 122 pitches vs. the Cubs under that intense Sunday pressure. The Phillies bring a 13-3 run into this series, and can make things happen in so many ways, not just with the lumber on offense, but that terrific 136-161 in stolen base opportunities. We believe that will be the biggest factor in this series, as they run a mediocre (outside of Sabathia) pitching staff ragged, and it would not be a surprise at all if this one ended quickly. They dominated the Brewers by a commanding 26-10 in a four-game home sweep in September, and this picks up right where that left off.


4* LOS ANGELES ANGELS(**SERIES**)-125 over Boston Red Sox (**SERIES**)

If you win 100 games during the regular season, despite playing through a slew of injuries that likely prevented several more W?s from being added, and have the home field advantage, you should be favored by significantly more than the Angels are for this series. But the magic of the Red Sox name rears its head again, even though they bring significant issues to the table this time. Instead of Josh Beckett being the horse that Boston will ride in the post-season, we will not see him until game #3 at the earliest, and his effectiveness is an issue. J. D. Drew and Mike Lowell? Also cloudy pictures. And it absolutely must be factored in just what the home field disadvantage means to a team that was 56-25 in Fenway Park this season, but just 39-42 on the road. But even Fenway is not the usual advantage, with the Angels going 5-1 there this season, part of an 8-1 head-to-head in which seven of those wins came by multiple runs. The better team in this price range is impossible to pass up.

[Mr. IWS]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

4* Primetime Total Of The Week
La Tech/boise St Over 56

[Mr. IWS]

Triple Threat Sports 777

Milw/Phil OVER 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
Series picks
20* Phillies
10* Dodgers
10* White Sox

Todays games
10* Dodgers
10* Angels

NCAAF
100* Boise St -24 buy down if need be

[Mr. IWS]

Rocco Spacamuro

50 * Boise State game over 55

[Mr. IWS]

JB's Computer Plays

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Time Game Selections

3:00 p.m. Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
(R) Yovani Gallardo (0-0) vs. (L) Cole Hamels (0-0) Philadelphia Phillies -200
6:30 p.m. Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
(R) Derek Lowe (0-0) vs. (R) Ryan Dempster (0-0) Chicago Cubs -155
10:00 p.m. Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
(L) Jon Lester (0-0) vs. (R) John Lackey (0-0) Los Angeles Angels -125

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

3 Unit Play. #952 Take Philadelphia (-1 ½ RL) +100 over Milwaukee (3:00 pm TBS) Classic example of one team that expects to go the World Series against one team that is just happy to be here. All the Brewers wanted was make the playoffs and they accomplished that, but just barely having to throw CC Sabathia on three days rest three times in a row. Yovani Gallardo will throw for the Brewers and he has pitched just four innings since May 1st. He has good stuff but will not be able to go very long in this game and the Phillies will make him pay when he makes a mistake. Philly was able to set their rotation much better and thus will have ace Cole Hamels on the mound. He will be pitching on regular rest and expect him to come up big ready to get the disappointment of last season out of there mouth. Philly swept the Brewers right out of town when they met in September winning all four games and will take a commanding 1-0 lead in this series with a convincing victory.



3 Unit Play. #954 Take Over 7 in Los Angeles @ Chicago (6:35 pm TBS) Two traditional teams are set to do battle in game one of what is the most intriguing series of the four. The Dodgers have rode the back of Manny Ramirez and won the NL West Division. All we need in this game is three runs apiece and we cannot lose and both teams have too strong of an offense to be held in check. The wind is the unpredictable feature of Wrigley Field and we expect to take advantage of a weak totals number and we will not worry if the Cubs have cover this high number and just sit back and collect with the total.



3 Unit Play. #956 Take Los Angeles -125 over Boston (10:05 pm TBS) The Red Sox have dominated the Halos in past playoff meetings, but the Halos dominated the Red Sox in 2008 winning eight of the nine meetings. Without Josh Beckett on the mound, we expect the Red Sox to leave SoCal down 2-0 and thus have too much to overcome against the best team in baseball. Jon Lester will take Josh Beckett’s spot as the game one starter and he has a 7.78 E.R.A. in four career starts against the Angeles. The Halos will start John Lackey, a pitcher that struggled down the stretch in a bunch of meaningless games. He has always been a big game pitcher and expect him to shine in the spotlight on Wednesday. Because of his recent struggles the number is low and that gives us all the more confidence to pound Los Angeles throughout the entire series.



Futures Bets

2 Unit Play. #992 Take Philadelphia -175 over Milwaukee (series play) (3:00 pm TBS)



2 Unit Play. #996 Take Los Angeles -130 over Boston (series play) (10:05 pm TBS)



2 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia to win the National League Pennant +260



2 Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels +215 to win the American League Pennant +215



4 Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels to win the World Series +365



Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

[Mr. IWS]

ProCappersNetwork

Here is a premium play off of my MLB Playoff Card for today:

Boston +1.24 (3 Unit Play)-These teams seem to meet up every year in the playoffs and Boston seems to win the series every year as well. This play really came down to how well Jon Lester has been pitching versus the form of John Lackey. Lackey got bombed in his last game against Texas but I am throwing that start out basically because there was nothing on the line but in looking back over his last few starts he was far from dominant and in fact of four of his last five starts he has allowed four earned runs or more. That is not the way to come into a short series pitching against a Red Sox team that tried to catch Tampa Bay but appeared to be more concerned with getting rested up for the playoff run. The Sox will be getting back J.D. Drew and probably Mike Lowell for this series so those veteran players can't be underestimated. Jon Lester gets the start for the Red Sox and this kid is turning into one of the best left handed pitchers in the majors. Lester's last six starts this year resulted in five of them where he allowed one earned run or less so you can see the direct disparity between how he is pitching compared to Lackey.

I have four other selections for today's action besides the above play and two series recommendations and you can pick up not only this card but my entire MLB Playoff selections through the World Series for just $20 by going to procappersnetwork.com. Sign up before 3:00 EST today and I will also included my football plays in both college and pro football at no additional charge through Monday.

Best of luck to everyone today!

Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* Boise st
10* la tec/boise under

10* mil/phi over
10* lad
10* laa
10* bos/laa over

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

1 STAR: (956) LA ANGELS (-$130) over Boston
(Listing Lackey only)
(Risking $130 to win $100)
9:05PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

INDIANCOWBOY COMP

La Tech/Boise State Under 56.6

It's not like I'm overly thrilled with the under here, but it is my lean and consequently my comp pick today. This is a WAC Contest and features La Tech on the road at Boise State. The line originally opened up at -19.5 and has quickly jumped to -23 on this weeknight football game. The total originally opened up at 53 and has jumped up to 56. La Tech actually covered this game last year as they fell short by 14 points at home, were active dogs and the game went over the 53.5. Boise State has covered the -36.5 and -24.5 the previous years they have had this game at Boise. Note, both games at Boise went over as well. Kellen Moore has thrown for 5 td's and a pick while completing over 70% of his passes and Boise State currently sits at 18th in the country. Note, that the Bronco defense gave up just 7 points to Bowling Green and Idaho State at home. La Tech on the other hand didn't put up a point on the road at Kansas. People love Boise State and the over here by over margins of 66% and I know the total has taken a spike up. Regardless, it is tough to wager against Boise State at home - but this is a conference game and Boise State could be in for a let down where they don't play well in the first half. Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised to see an under here because it is conference play similar to yesterday and the public is well over 70% on the over. La Tech is a young team on the road so I don't see them necessarily plowing away the points, nor do I see Boise State letting too many points being scored at home. The under is 4-0 for the Bulldogs of La Tech after a bye week and the under is 4-1 for the Broncos in conference games. Lean and comp pick on the under today

[Mr. IWS]

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, October 01, 2008

5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS TOTALS WINNER
UNDER 8.5 Boston and LA Angels 10:05 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

BOISE STATE -24 over Louisiana Tech

The Broncos are 29-12-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 19-3 ATS as conf home favs of under 28 points and 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while the Bulldogs are 6-24-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win and 0-9 ATS on the road vs teams that average 5.9+ yards per play. The Broncos are simply an awesome team at home as they come in with a 43 game home win streat and they have outscored their opponents by 32 ppg over that span. A closer looks shows that the Broncos have won 29 of those games by 24 or more points, plus they have won their last 16 conference home games by an average of 35.6 ppg and LA Tech the last 2 times they played here by 41 points each game. Boise State checks in with the 19th overall offense and the 9th rated passing offense, to go along with the 25th ranked scoring offense. That passing offense for the Broncos should really have La Tech shaking in their Nikes as the Bulldogs check in with the worst rated passing defense in the nation. They are allowing teams to throw for 349 ypg and 7.6 ypa. Wow. The Boise offense is throwing for 306 ypg and they have a 10.4 ypa average as well. Again, Wow. On the other side of the ball the Boise defense has been solid, allowing just 346 ypg and 15.3 ppg so far. They will fac a Bulldog offense that is 93rd overall, 100th in passing and 91st in scoring. I feel that it's easier for some of the BCS schools to overlook their opponents from time to time and just play a game to get the win, but non-BCS schools that are trying to impress the voters don't have that luxury and must get all the big wins they can. Boise will not overlook the Bulldogs here as they walk away with yet another 30+ point on the Smurf Turf.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

College Football
Boise State -24 over Louisiana Tech
LTech looked good in their opening week win against Mississippi State and we even took LTech on the money line in my "Diamond in the ruff" play. A lot has changed since then. Taylor Bennett who was supposed to be this teams savior has looked awful. In Tech's one road game this season they put up a goose egg scoring no points. Boise State is explosive on offense and seem to always play great home defense when they are on primetime TV. Boise State should run the ball well and as always throw for 300+ yards. Look for a blowout. Take Boise State.


Angels -125 over Redsox
Lackey/Lester

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports

MLB:
3 units on LA Angels -125

NCAA Football
3 Units on Boise State Under 56.5