10-13-08

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 9 - 13, 2008 No. 7

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team


10 N.Y. GIANTS over *Cleveland
Late Score Forecast:
N.Y. GIANTS 31 - *Cleveland 13
(Monday, October 13)

Giants’ strengths way too many in this matchup. Solid at QB. Aggressive and still underrated in the OL. Three deep at RB. Plaxico Burress due to return at WR after his suspension. Intimidating pass rush. Highly-ranked run defense. Improved young depth in the secondary. A demanding but more simpatico coach who generates a daily work ethic second to few. And, best yet for this game, a warrior mentality on the road that has produced a 12- game road unbeaten string and ten straight covers away from home. Meanwhile, Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis (3.4 ypc) has lost a step, QB Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has failed to justify his new deal, and the injurythinned
defense has produced only 6 sacks in 4 games. CKO scouts say Giants fully aware they can’t afford a misstep in the rugged NFC East.

Pointwise NFL


MONDAY
New York Giants 34 - CLEVELAND 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 sure had
classic all-out wars in the old NFL days. Obviously, they are miles apart now, as the Giants continue to impress. A 523-187 yd edge over Seattle LW, with a 7.1 ypr showing. Eli? Try 65-of-97 the last 3 games. NY has won its last twelve away games, & is 13-2 ATS away. Brown "D" has held 7 of last 8 opponents <20 pts, but Anderson is just 3/6 for the year. NY is 11-2 away off a SU win of at least 14 pts, while the Browns are 10-16 ATS off a win. Giants rank in the top 8 in all 8 major stat categories, while Cleveland checks in with the worst "O" in the NFL.

GOLDSHEET - NFL

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13
*NY Giants 27 - CLEVELAND 16—Considering the expected kamikaze
effort from Cleveland, it’s tempting to give the Browns consideration as a
substantial dog. But not THAT tempting, as Cleveland has many areas of
concern. Meanwhile, the unbeaten Giants—whose performance hardly
suffered vs. Seattle minus Plaxico Burress—take a 12-game road unbeaten
string and 10 straight covers as visitor to the shores of Lake Erie. Besides,
Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has been shaken this season by less menacing obstacles than N.Y.’s formidable pass rush, and the possible switch to Brady Quinn not likely to boost the Brownies vs. this foe. CABLE TV—ESPN (2007 Preseason: NY GIANTS -2 beat Cleveland 37-34 at New York) (04-NY GIANTS -3' 27-10...SR: Cleveland 26-20-2)

WILD BILL

Over 43 Browns-Giants (5 units)

Game 3 ALCS

Red Sox -175 vs Garza (5 units)

VEGAS VIC

BROWNS (+8) over Giants (ESPN)

Defending Super Bowl champs at 4-0 against a bunch of misfits from Cleveland. Why buy the Brownies? They have covered an astounding eight of the last 10 at home.

Jim Feist

(7) NJ Devils
(8) NY Rangers
Take "Under"
Martin Brodeur is in mid-season form for the Devils after a very nice effort on Friday against the Islanders, 2-1. Brodeur made 25 saves in the win. The win was his 539th of his career, just 12 shy of the league mark held by Patrick Roy. .5?Marty is Marty; he is the best goalie of all time,.5? said center Brian Rolston. .5?He was awesome again tonight, and unfortunately that is what everyone is expecting of him..5? The new look Rangers are also coming together well as a team. They picked up free agent Markus Naslund in the off season. Jaromir Jagr, who was the focal point of this team for four years, has left for Russia. Also gone is forward Sean Avery. So far the new chemistry is working well for the Rangers who are 4-0 and atop the Atlantic division. The Rangers have allowed just seven goals in four games and no power plays. The Devils have allowed just two goals in two games behind their veteran goaltender. This game should be very physical as we look for a low scoring affair. Take the Under here on Monday between the Rangers and Devils.

NFL


Monday, October 13

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Tips and Trends
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New York Giants at Cleveland Browns [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Giants (-7.5, O/U 43.5): The Giants continue to roll this season behind a balanced offense and a stingy defense. New York is throwing for 250 yards per game, while running for 181 yards. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been nasty, only giving up 12.3 points and 236 yards per contest. Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career and he’ll get top receiver Plaxico Burress back this week after a one-game suspension. The Giants have won the last four meetings against the Browns, dating back to 1985. They have also won 13 straight on the road.

Giants are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
Giants are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.

Key Injuries - WR Domenik Hixon (concussion) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Browns: This is a huge game for the 1-3 Browns but if they are going to upset the Giants, Cleveland will need to improve an offense that’s averaging a miserable 11.5 points per game. Derek Anderson will get the start but if he struggles early, the team is prepared to make the switch to Brady Quinn before the game gets out of hand. Part of the Browns bye week was spent in getting a jump on their preparation for the Giants, but most of the practices last Wednesday and Thursday were dedicated to eliminating mistakes such as aggravating penalties, including lining up offside on defense and lining up illegally on offense.

Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Browns are 11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - TE Kellen Winslow (knee) is questionable.
LB Willie McGinest (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

MLB



Monday, October 13

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Trend Sheet
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4:37 PM TAMPA BAY vs. BOSTON
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Boston
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games at home


8:22 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. LA DODGERS
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

50 NYG

Comp is Under

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies Sports

monday oct 13, 2008.

500* giants/browns under 43
30* browns +8'
20* dodgers
20* dodgers/phillies under
10* tampa bay/boston over 8' runs
10* tampa bay +165 free play

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -177 (moneyline)

The Dodgers got a desperately needed win yesterday to move them to within one game in the series, now down just 2-1. They have their hottest pitcher on the hill with a lot of postseason experience behind him in Derek Lowe for this one. Lowe will get this opportunity at home, where he has been more than two runs a game better on the season. Lowe has a 2.30 ERA at home, and has allowed 29 fewer hits than innings pitched while his WHIP is under one in home games. Joe Blanton is the weakest link on the Phillies staff completing the season with a 4.69 ERA. This series has the look of a seven-gamer, and the Dodgers have their biggest edge of the series here behind Lowe, and at home, so I will back the Blue and White to even things up at two games apiece.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG

Game: St. Louis at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -117

The St. Louis Blues travel to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs. Each team enters this game with identical 1-1 records on the young season. Vesa Toskala had a bad game behind the net against Montreal where he allowed six goals and was replaced with 11 minutes left. He should fare better against the Blues where he is an outstanding 6-2 over his career with a 2.37 goals against average. Manyy Lagace will mind the net for the Blues and he has a similar track record against the Maple Leafs where he has allowed 2.98 goals against in six career games. The Blues have played four straight UNDERS on one day’s rest, and the Leafs are 35-16-6 to the UNDER against opponents that allowed five or more goals in their last game, so I'm siding with the UNDER in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog


Yesterday we nailed our 4-unit moneyline play on the Dodgers as LA moved closer to evening up the NLCS. Today we go with three MLB playoffs picks. Over the last three weeks our MLB picks are hitting 58% (15-11) for +14.3 units.

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Tampa Bay at Boston (4:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -187 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Tampa Bay Rays will head to Boston with the series tied at one game apiece. The Red Sox will send Jon Lester to the mound who has been money at Fenway this season as he is 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA. Overall the Sox are 17-4 in his 21 home starts. This is a crucial game in the series and Lester has completed seven innings in 70% of his last 20 starts. We could also see Jonathon Papelbon for a two-inning save, and he has yet to allow a run in the postseason ever. The Rays have been 5-10 this season behind Matt Garza on the road, so I like the Sox here to take the lead in the series. I also like the prospects of the UNDER here, as the combination of Lester and Papelbon could shutout the Rays. Plus the fact that this game is starting in the late afternoon, with the shadows and twilight for the first two hours or so of the game will make it difficult on hitters.


Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -177 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)

The Dodgers got a desperately needed win yesterday to move them to within one game in the series, now down just 2-1. They have their hottest pitcher on the hill with a lot of postseason experience behind him in Derek Lowe for this one. Lowe will get this opportunity at home, where he has been more than two runs a game better on the season. Lowe has a 2.30 ERA at home, and has allowed 29 fewer hits than innings pitched while his WHIP is under one in home games. Joe Blanton is the weakest link on the Phillies staff completing the season with a 4.69 ERA. This series has the look of a seven-gamer, and the Dodgers have their biggest edge of the series here behind Lowe, and at home, so I will back the Blue and White to even things up at two games apiece.

[Mr. IWS]

3Daily Winners

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB)
Play: Money Line: -191 Boston Red Sox

The chalk is heavy on Boston, but it won't matter. Jon Lester is sensational and is perfectly suited to take on a team like the free swinging Rays, being 12-0 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game over the last two seasons. (Red Sox record) The young left-hander has become and accomplished stopper as well, as he and Boston are 10-2 when he pitches after a loss. The Red Sox are 45-16 as a favorite of -150 or more this season and 24-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season. Lester and his teammates have been nearly unbeatable combination with 14-1 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher, winning by 4.4 runs per game.

[Mr. IWS]

M Lawrence Playbook
NY Giants over CLEVELAND by 4
For a defending Super Bowl champion that entered the season with little-to-no
respect, the Giants have come full circle. And deservedly so, we might add, as
they’ve become just the 8th defending champion to open the season 4-0 since
1980. The problem they face this evening is the role they assume, that of a nondivision
road favorite in a Monday Night game. That’s because these defending
champs are just 3-11 ATS in this role, including 0-3 SU and ATS when they own a
.900 or greater record. With Cleveland in an identical role in which Miami was
cast in last week against San Diego (see Marc’s WAKE UP CALL article in Issue 8
last week for more details), we take a seat in the Dawg Pound and bark with
the Big Dog tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Eddie Roman
20,000 Unit MNF Insiders Lock

FIRST EVER 20,000 UNIT
MONDAY NIGHT INSIDER
LOCK OF MY CAREER
Cleveland Browns +8.5 over New York

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

New York Giants -7.5

Cleveland went 10-6 last year. Their ten wins came against Cincinnati, Baltimore (twice), Miami, St Louis, Buffalo, Houston, the New York Jets, San Francisco and Seattle. That’s nine wins against teams that finished at or below .500, and one tight overtime win at home against a Seahawks team that never seems to win in the Eastern Time Zone. In 2008, Cleveland has gone from facing one of the weakest slates in the NFL to facing one of the toughest, and the results have been exactly what we might expect – disastrous.


Derek Anderson took the NFL by storm when he assumed the starting job in Week 2 last year. In his first eight starts, he threw for 256 yards per game with a 19-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Over the final seven weeks of the season, once opposing defensive coordinators had film on him, Anderson threw for 222 yards per game with a 9-10 ratio. His accuracy was a problem, his consistency was a problem and his 19 interceptions was certainly a problem.


This year, Anderson’s QB rating ranks 31st out of 32 NFL starting quarterbacks, ahead of only Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City. His receiving corps is banged up, with Kellen Winslow Jr. hospitalized, Joe Jurevicius on the PUP list and Donte Stallworth limited with a quad injury. Throw in a case of the dropsies from former pro bowler Braylon Edwards, and this offense is a bottom tier unit right now. And with the Browns offensive line struggling to protect Anderson, expect the Giants fierce pass rush to be in Anderson’s face all night, forcing the Browns QB into poor decisions and turnovers.


The defending Super Bowl champs are still searching for respect from the public, the national media and the betting marketplace. This game has all the potential to be a coming out party for the Giants on national TV, showing the nation how good this team really is on both sides of the football. Remember, Cleveland went 19-45 SU between 2003 and 2006. Last year was the aberration, not the previous four seasons. The Giants, facing a hapless foe like the Browns, should have little trouble winning this game by margin. 3* Take New York .

[Mr. IWS]

akmens baseball
red sox with lester

[Mr. IWS]

ron raymond..

Pick # 2 Saskatchewan Roughriders / Calgary Stampeders Over 55



2008-10-13 RON RAYMOND'S 2-GAME NHL PICK PACK

Pick # 1 Montreal Canadiens (105)





Pick # 2 Vancouver Canucks (110)

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast
2* Monday Night Magic Browns, Marquee On The Over