10-27-08

Dr. Bob


TENNESSEE (-4.0) 23 Indianapolis 16
05:35 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-27 - Stats Matchup
I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated. The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the pre-season and was obviously rusty). Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and good against the pass and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

MONDAY

20 Dime Titans (-4)

FREE - Colts/Titans Over

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Prime Time Delight

Colts

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns #1 NHL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH!
I'm playing on OTTAWA

[Mr. IWS]

Roots plays today...

Chairman- Colts
Millionaire- Phils/Rays Over

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns
TITLE: ***9*** Top Play from the AFC South in '08!
REASON FOR PICK: Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Game Time: 10/27/2008 8:35:00 PM
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
Reason: I'm taking the points with INDIANAPOLIS. As the only undefeated team in the league, the Titans have certainly gotten off to an impressive start. However, a closer look at their schedule shows that it included (0-7) Cincy and (1-6 KC) and that none of their six opponents are currently better than 4-3. In fact, the (4-3) Ravens are the only team with a winning record and they've got a first-year QB. Naturally, none of those opponents would be in the playoffs today. Granted, the same could be said of the Colts, as they come in at just 3-3. However, the Colts' schedule has been signifcantly tougher (Green Bay and Chicago instead of KC and Cincy) and we all know that the Colts aren't your "ordinary" 3-3 team. This is a Colts team that won the Super Bowl only two years ago and which has dominated the AFC South for years. Looking at the recent-head to head history and we find that the last four meetings in this series have been decided by a combined 12 points (avg of 3 ppg) and that the Colts have won eight of the last 10 meetings overall. Those backing the favorite tonight will likely argue that Colts have been a bit soft against the run at times and that the Titans are a team which likes to pound the ball on the ground. That type of team doesn't always give the Colts the type of trouble one might think though. Two games ago, the Colts played Baltimore. That's noteworthy as the Ravens and the Titans have a lot of similarities. For starters, both those defenses rank in the top 3 in the AFC in points allowed. Additionally, both the Ravens and Titans run the ball more than any team in the league. The Ravens run the ball 37.2 times per game while the Titans run the ball 34.2 times per game. Therefore, quite a few people thought the Ravens might give the Colts some trouble. What happened? Indianapolis dismantled them by a score of 31-3! (Note that the Titans beat the same Ravens team by only three points the previous week) Like the Ravens, the Titans aren't the type of team that is built to come from behind. While the Titans would love to keep their perfect record in tact and make a statement with a big win, this is a much more important game for the Colts. Indianapolis coach Dungy was quoted as saying: "We're going to have to play a good game to win. That's our focus right now. It's not where we are in the standings or any of that. I think we'll know to win the division or to have a chance to win the division we're going to have to win this game, but it's not really about that. We're at Week 7 for us and we have to play an outstanding game." The Colts are 2-0 SU/ATS their last two Monday night games and 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS their last 14. They've won here four of the past five years and the lone loss was by a field goal. We saw that records don't always mean that much when it comes to divisional play in late October yesterday. There were only two divisional games (Buffalo/Miami and Seattle/SF) and in both cases the team with the worse record ending up winning. Don't count out Manning and co. quite yet! *9 top play from AFC South

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 tenn