Ben Burns

I'm laying the points with TENNESSEE

*NFL Playoff GOY



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NFL Best Bet Sides

2 Star Selection

??CAROLINA (-9.5) 32 Arizona 14

10-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time

Arizona was a good bet last week at home, but the Cardinals are in a tough spot this week against a rested Panthers team that applies to a very good 36-6 ATS playoff situation. Arizona played well here in a 23-27 week 8 loss as a 4 point dog, but Arizona didn't fair so well against other good teams away from home. The Cardinals played 4 road games against teams that ended the season with a winning record and they were blown out in 3 of those games – losing by 21 points at the Jets, by 28 points at Philadelphia, and by 40 points at New England – so don't put too much stock in the fact that Arizona played well here in week 8. Carolina played very well at home this season, winning their 8 home games by an average margin of 15.4 points and winning by 14 points or more against other .500 or better teams Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans on this field. Panthers' quarterback Jake Delhomme played much better at home (8.7 yards per pass attempt and a 100.8 QB rating) than he did on the road (7.3 ypa and a 71.4 rating) and I expect Carolina's balanced attack to perform well against a Cardinals' defense that gave up an average of 31 points on the road this season. Arizona's defense is actually slightly better than average if you exclude week 4 and 5 when star safety Adrian Wilson was out, but Carolina's attack is 0.9 yards per play better than average in the 14 games with star WR Steve Smith playing. Arizona does have an advantage with their offense (0.6 yppl better than average) going up against a Panthers' defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average, but the Cardinals' advantage disappears if WR Anquan Boldin can't play or is ineffective with this injured groin (I'll assume he's playing). My math model would favor Carolina by 9 ½ points under normal conditions but home field advantage is an additional 2.5 points in this round of the playoffs with the home teams coming off a bye, so Carolina by 12 points is what I get mathematically in this game. The 36-6 ATS situation that applies to Carolina makes the Panthers worthy of a play and I'll take Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.

NFL Strong Opinions

NY GIANTS (-4.0) 24 Philadelphia 14

11-Jan-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time

The Eagles are every bit as good as the Giants, but New York has had an extra week off and that has proven to be a significant factor in the playoffs. The oddsmakers started to adjust for the fact that home teams in this round performed better than expected and the road teams have actually covered more often in recent years. However, that has not been the case for teams that qualify in the 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Philadelphia and New York split their two games this season, with the Eagles winning here in New Jersey in week 14, but teams with revenge are 15-0 ATS in that 36-6 ATS situation, so New York should be prepared to play well. Also, when division rivals meet in the playoffs the team that lost the most recent game is 23-8-1 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of less than .700, which is the case here. These teams are even and my math model favors New York by 5 ½ points with the addition home field advantage for this round of the playoffs and the line has come down from -5 points to -4 points, so there is a little bit of line value on the side of New York in addition to the good situation. My only issue with this game is that the Eagles are 43-22-2 ATS as an underdog or pick under coach Andy Reid, including 5-1 ATS in the post-season. Philly is only 3-5 ATS as a dog or pick against a division rival with revenge, so that trend isn't enough to keep me away from favoring New York. It will, however, keep me from making the Giants at Best Bet at this price. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.15 odds or better.

PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 24 San Diego 13

11-Jan-09 01:45 PM Pacific Time

These teams played the only 11-10 game in NFL history in week 11 here in Pittsburgh, but that game should not have been that close. Pittsburgh dominated with 410 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to 213 yards at 4.3 yppl and I think they can do it again. The Steelers defense is the single most dominating unit in this game, allowing just 3.9 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.3 yppl against an average defense. San Diego's offense was 0.6 yppl better than average for the season and I rate them at 1.1 yppl better than average with Darren Sproles at running back in place of the injured and washed up LaDainian Tomlinson. As good as the San Diego offense is with Sproles getting more touches, the Steelers' defense allowed more 4.8 yppl or more just one time all season (5.3 yppl at Tennessee) and should contain that attack. Pittsburgh isn't much offensively, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack and the Chargers are average defensively, but my math model favors Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for siding with the Steelers is a 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Steelers in this game and a negative 4-21-1 ATS negative situation that applies to San Diego. The Chargers were able to win as a home underdog last week, but teams that win as a playoff home underdog are just 1-8 ATS on the road in their next playoff game. The reason I'm passing on this game as a Best Bet is because the Chargers are 19-3-2 ATS as an underdog the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. My research shows that teams trends are not nearly as predictive as general situations, so the technical analysis still favors the Steelers and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ or less.

Other NFL Games

TENNESSEE (-3.0) 17 Baltimore 14

10-Jan-09 01:30 PM Pacific Time

There is no doubt that Baltimore is a better team than Tennessee right now, as the Ravens' defense has been the best in the league since star CB Samari Rolle returned to the lineup in week 10 and the offensive units are about the same, but home teams have a stronger than normal home field advantage in this round of the playoffs, and Tennessee by 3 points is a fair line. The Titans will have their two star defensive linemen Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth available to play this week and the Tennessee defense was 0.7 yards per play better than average in the 13 games in which they both played. Baltimore's offense is just average running the ball and average throwing the ball, so Tennessee's defense has an advantage in that match-up. The Titans are also mediocre offensively, rating at 0.1 yards per rushing play better than average and 0.2 yppl worse than average throwing it with Kerry Collins at quarterback (excluding their week 17 game against the Colts when they rested starters). That unit will also have a tough time moving the ball, as the Ravens' defense is 0.7 ypr better than average defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team and an incredible 1.5 yards per pass play better than average with their current lineup in the secondary (since week 10 when Rolle came back and CB McAlister was put on IR). Overall, Baltimore is 1.1 yppl better than average defensively and the Ravens have an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game. My math model would have predicted this game even under normal circumstances, but home field advantage in this round of the playoffs, when the home team is rested, is 5 ½ points rather than the standard 3 points, so I get Tennessee by 2 ½ points mathematically. Playoff home teams that are coming off a loss are 39-22-1 ATS over the years, but that's the only significant playoff trend that applies to this game and I don't want to predict the Titans to win by more than 3 points since 3 is such a key number (nearly 10% of all games when the line is around 3 points are won by the favorite by exactly 3 points). I'll lean slightly with the Titans if the line drops to -2 ½ points and I have no opinion on the total (my math model actually projects 32.7 points, which is too close to the 34 point line to be worth betting).




Spreitzer 25* Titans



Brandon Lang

Saturday Playoff Winners

25 Dime Titans
5 Dime Over Cardinals/Panthers






Ben Burns

I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. *CBB Blowout GOW

I'm playing on the Titans and Ravens UNDER the total. *Blue Chip

I'm playing on Arizona and Carolina to finish UNDER the number. *Main Event





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