NCAAF

Bowl Season

Gator Bowl Jacksonville, 1/1
Georgia (-8.5) whacked Nebraska 45-31 in LY’s Capital One Bowl, passing for 427 yards (23.7 yards/completion) but 4-year starting QB Murray (knee) is out, replaced by highly thought of junior Mason, who brought Georgia back from 20 down to beat Ga Tech in rivalry game. Richt is 8-4 in bowl games (3-2 vs spread in last five); Nebraska lost its last three bowls by average score of 31-18, including 19-7 loss as 14-point favorite to Washington in ’10 Holiday Bowl. Underdogs covered five of last seven Gator Bowls; winning side scored 30+ points in eight of last ten here. Unsure how Georgia players feel about playing here, since they play Florida here in neutral field rivalry game every year; you’d think they’d be excited to get some redemption after injury-riddled season. If Nebraska wins they’ll have lost four games all six seasons Pelini has been their coach. Cornhuskers covered both times they were an underdog this year.

Heart of Dallas Bowl, Cotton Bowl Stadium, 1/1
UNLV is in 4th bowl ever, first since 31-14 win over Arkansas in Vegas 13 years ago- they’re 3-0 all-time in bowls. North Texas is bowling for first time since ’04- they played in New Orleans Bowl as the Sun Belt champ four years in row, going 1-3. Mean Green won/covered six of last seven games overall; they’re 7-2 vs spread when favored this year, 5-3 in games with single digit spread. UNLV is 5-3 as an underdog, 5-2 in single digit spread games; Rebels’ WR Davis has 1,194 receiving yards, 14 TDs and is an NFL player waiting to be drafted. Mean Green won six of last seven games to get here; they beat C-USA champ Rice but lost at home to UTSA. North Texas is located within an hour of Dallas, should have large crowd edge; game is in old Cotton Bowl, where Cowboys played from 1960-70, so weather could be factor. McCarney was 2-3 in bowls while coaching Iowa State; Hauck coached in I-AA playoffs at Montana, but this is his first I-A bowl game. Favorites won first three Heart of Dallas Bowls (2-1 vs spread with totals of 83-44-72.

Capital One Bowl Tampa, 1/1
Wisconsin lost Rose Bowl last three years; they’re 4-7 in last 11 bowls under Alvarez/Bielema- this is first time they’ve been bowl favorite since at least 2002, odd streak. Badgers got upset by Penn State in season finale, while Carolina was beating Clemson for 5th year in row, chances are Wisky has chip on shoulder and will try to use power running game to negate Carolina’s edge in speed. Andersen was 1-1 in bowls at Utah State. Spurrier is 9-10 in bowl games, 3-4 with Gamecocks, but he won 30-13/33-28 in last two bowls, winning this bowl over Nebraska two years ago. This is first time Gamecocks travelled for game since October 26; they’re 3-1 in games decided by less than seven points, 1-1 as underdogs, 3-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Badgers are 0-3 in games decided by 7 or less points, 7-2 as favorites, 3-1 in games with single digit spread. Gamecocks’ star LB Clowney got another speeding ticket last week; he has underachieved this year, curious to see how he plays here, in his last college game.

Outback Bowl Tampa 1/1
Mettenberger’s ACL injury means LSU turns to more mobile but less-experienced Jennings at QB; he has thrown only 10 passes but one of them was dramatic game-winner vs Arkansas. Cameron has been an NFL coordinator, so Jennings will be as prepared as he can be here. LSU is 9-3, giving up 44-27-38 points in its losses, all on road to quality QBs (Murray-Wallace-McCarron)- they’re 5-0 vs spread this year in games with single digit pointspread. Iowa won its last three games after being just 5-4; they covered two of three as an underdog this year. Miles is 6-5 in bowls, 5-3 at LSU, but lost to Alabama/Clemson last two years. Ferentz is 6-4 in bowl games, even though he was favored only once; he is 3-1 vs SEC teams in bowls, beating LSU on last-second pass nine years ago. Hawkeyes are 2-0 in this bowl, beating Florida in ’03, South Carolina in ’08. SEC teams won this game three of last four years, with losing team scoring average of 29.3 ppg last four years.

Rose Bowl Pasadena 1/1
Michigan State sent star LB Bullough home, which can't be good; they're in Rose Bowl for first time in 26 years, after winning last two bowls by combined total of four points. Spartans are 3-0 as underdogs this season, haven't lost since 17-13 (+4.5) loss at Notre Dame in September. Pac-12 teams are 5-2 SU/ATS in bowls so far, favored in every game; Big Dozen teams are 0-2 in bowls this year, 1-9 in their last ten Rose Bowls, with Ohio State in '09 only winner. Stanford won Rose Bowl LY, just second win in its last five bowls; Cardinal won Pac-12 title, are 5-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread- Spartans are 8-0. Pac-12 teams are 5-1 in their last six Rose Bowls. Stanford coach Shaw has to constantly answer questions about going to NFL (his dad was NFL coordinator), doubt it is a distraction, but he was denying it again yesterday. Stanford has better QB; Pac-12 has usually been the better investment in this game.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale Az 1/1
Central Florida won at Penn State, lost to South Carolina by FG, they're not intimidated by bigger name teams; O'Leary is 5-4 in bowls, 3-2 with UCF. Briles lost his first five bowl games but scored 67-49 points in last two, winning by 11-23 points. UCF is 3-0 as an underdog this year, with two SU wins; they were double digit FAVORITE in their last six games, probably feel disrespected here. Baylor scored 59+ points in six of its 12 games this year, covering eight of 10 as double digit favorite. All season, Bears played only two games decided by less than 20 points. Two QBs in this game combined for 52 TD passes, nine INTs, which hints at an over play here. AAC teams won two of first three bowls; Big X teams won two of first three. Through Tuesday's games, favorites were 14-8 vs spread in bowl games; over was 7-15-1. Game is in Cardinals' dome, so weather isn't a factor. Underdogs covered five of last seven in this bowl.