Power Sports

Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Pick: Wake Forest +7.5

Remember that historic #1 vs. #3 (rankings) matchup between Alabama and Florida State that took place back in Week 1? Well, maybe it wasn't so historic after all. The Seminoles lost the game (24-7) and their starting QB (Deondre Francois) and it appears as if their season may have gone out the window as well. Before the year, had I told you that the 'Noles would be winless going into the final day of September, you would have likely wanted my head examined. But that's the reality. Now, to be fair, they've had two postponements (Hurricane Irma). But they lost LW at home to NC State, 27-21, as DD favorites. I would not be rushing to bet this team any time soon, especially here laying pts on the road.

It is Wake Forest that comes into this matchup unbeaten at 4-0 SU. I'd call that a surprise, but the Demon Deacons have been favored three times and a pick 'em once. This is - easily - Dave Clawson's best team yet here in Winston-Salem. Clawson has engineered turnarounds at all three previous stops in this coaching career, the last one being Bowling Green, so maybe this shouldn't be all that surprising. But what has impressed me is just how legit this team is. My own power rankings call this a Top 25 team and they rank 16th overall in efficiency nationally. I've been really impressed w/ what I've seen thus far, even in last week's non-cover at Appalachian State (won 20-19 as 5.5-pt road chalk).

I'm not saying the Demon Deacons will pull the outright upset here, but I do look for a close, one-possession game. This is the first "true" road start for FSU QB James Blackman, who remains a work in progress due to being called into duty unexpectedly. Note the Seminoles never led last week against NC State. Wake Forest is 7-1 ATS the last eight times it has been a dog, including four outright wins. Consider taking the points.