Broncos vs. Jets Week 4 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

With the Broncos and Jets kicking off Week 4 with the Thursday Night Football game, make a note that NFL teams prior to playing on TNF this year are now 0-6 straight up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) the week before.

Not something specific to use for this game, but it is something to keep in mind for bettors looking at the spread or ML options on Tampa Bay and Chicago this week, as the Bucs and Bears meet in Chicago for Week 5's TNF game.

For this Broncos-Jets game, it is going to take some work to find something likeable enough to get behind either of these squads, as questions about whether both organizations are deciding on whether to tank or not start to linger.

Truthfully there hasn't been much to like from either Denver or the New York Jets this year, as this pair of 0-3 SU teams could end up being a quick reminder about the tendency for TNF games to be duds.

Betting Resources

Week 4 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Line Movements

Spread: Denver -1
Money-Line: Denver -110, NY Jets -110
Total: 39.5

2020 Betting Stats

Denver

Overall: 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Road: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U

New York

Overall: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Home: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U

Handicapping the Total

The Denver Broncos and New York Jets have each scored 14 or fewer points in two of their respective three contests so far, and only the Broncos were able to get over the 20-point plateau in the outlying game with 21 points against Pittsburgh.

Those kind of abysmal point totals can't have anyone confidently looking at the 'over' here, unless you think you'll see a few turnovers at the beginning of drives, translating into short fields and easy points.

Denver's move to Brett Rypien at quarterback is one where the front office is likely plenty comfortable living with either result. If he lights it up then maybe they've got to give him a fair shake, and if he struggles too, well, it might just hang on until Lock comes back and really makes a decision on whether or not he's going to be the guy going forward.

Not sure how you can confidently believe that Rypien's insertion into the lineup will all of a sudden have this Broncos offense constantly moving the ball other then if the thought process is that negative regarding the Jets defense. Understandable if that's the case, but still somewhat of a tough ask to ensure the Broncos offense pulls their weight for any chance of the 'over' connecting.

At the same time, the Jets offense has already shown that it stinks once again, and the strength of Denver's team is that defensive unit. The Broncos defense have held future Hall of Famers in Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady to fewer than 30 points against them in back-to-back weeks, so I'm not sure they'll even be seen facing QB Sam Darnold and this Jets attack as much of a challenge. Hard to imagine being confident in the Jets doing their part either in any 'over' selection.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 7, 2018 - New York 34 vs. Denver 16, Jets +1, Over 42.5
Dec. 10, 2017 - Denver 23 vs. New York 0, Broncos +1, Under 40.5

Handicapping the Side

If you can't trust either team to routinely move the ball down the field, I don't know how any side play can really get you all that excited. I'm not sold on Denver's decision to go with Rypien being worth about a two-point drop in the line – Denver went from -3 to -1 after the announcement – but I was also not sold on the Broncos deserving of opening up as a -3 road favorite for this game.

The fact that the Broncos were favored at all brought an initial squint with it to make sure that's what I was seeing, but based on their defense it makes sense, and paired with that low total it has got, you can easily see the expected game script this line was based around.

Doesn't mean I have to like it, nor do I have to play it. Not one result would shock me here, as either side could get blown out of the building should multiple turnovers do them in, and a close game either way where the loser couldn't execute late wouldn't be surprising at all.

It's anyone's guess as to what side comes out as the correct one in this game, and really, whether or not either side actually wants to win this game or not. Tanking in Week 4 is a little early, and no one will ever admit it, but these teams know they aren't going anywhere in 2020.

There is no alternative incentive to say “play the spoiler against a hated rival” or anything like that for either side, as it really sets up to be one of those ho-hum TNF games we are treated to a handful of times each season where it's easy to turn off by the early 3rd quarter.

You know by then that the trailing team won't have what it takes to make a run at coming back, and even still, you've then got to count on a bad offense in general to all of a sudden execute well above their mean.

Flip a coin as to which team ends up winning this game, but it's going to finish with a 20-17 score. Neither offense is good enough to sustain those 8+ play drives; they'll need to put up points consistently enough, and as long as there aren't multiple turnovers made by both sides, an ugly TNF game is probably what we get.

Key Injuries

Denver

LB Jeremiah Attaochu: Quad - Out
QB Drew Lock: Shoulder - Out
CB Davontae Harris: Hamstring - Questionable
RB Phillip Lindsay: Foot - Questionable

New York

WR Breshad Perriman: Ankle - Questionable
LB Jordan Willis: Ankle - Questionable
WR Jamison Crowder: Hamstring - Questionable
S Ashtyn Davis: Groin - Doubtful
DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
WR Chris Hogan: Ribs, Knee - Questionable
LB Jordan Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
OT Mekhi Becton: Shoulder - Questionable