Dr Bob Sun NFL (strong opinion)
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PITTSBURGH (-6.5) 21 Houston 20 10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-07
Houston has gone from 2-14 in 2005 to 6-10 in 2006 and then to 8-8 last season, and I expect the Texans to continue to make strides this season thanks to an improved defense. The Texans defense rated at 0.4 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team – not including their week 17 game in which Jacksonville rested their starters), but the season ending injury to top CB Dunta Robinson actually led to improvement after a horrible first half of the season. It wasn’t that Robinson was playing poorly, as he was playing pretty well, but his injury allowed rookie CB Fred Bennett to enter the starting lineup and Bennett was unbelievably good. Bennett started the final 8 games after Robinson was injured and he allowed a league best 4.8 yards per pass thrown his direction while breaking up 17 passes, including 15 in his 8 starts. Those are incredible numbers for a cornerback and the Texans were actually 0.2 yards per pass play better than average defensively from week 9 on with Bennett in the lineup, after being 0.7 yppp worse than average the first half of the season. Part of the credit for the improved pass defensive also goes to former #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams, who had 10 sacks in the final 7 games of the season after a year and a half of disappointing results. The Texans are loaded with young talent defensively and I expect them to be a better than average defensive team with CB Jacques Reeves being signed away from Dallas to play the cornerback spot opposite Bennett, which takes Demarcus Faggins and his 8.9 yards per pass attempted against him out of the lineup (Reeves allowed 7.7 ypa at Dallas last season).
With the defense picking up where they left off the second half of last season, the Texans should be a good team given that they’re offense was already better than average. Houston averaged 5.6 yppl last season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team (excluding their week 17 game against Jacksonville’s backups) despite being without star WR Andre Johnson for 7 games. Johnson averaged 9.9 yards per pass thrown to him last season and the Texans would have been 0.2 yppl better had he played the entire season. Quarterbacks Matt Schaub and backup Sage Rosenfels both had very good seasons last year and should do so again, while the rushing attack should be improved with the new blocking schemes of offensive line guru Alex Gibbs, who coached the successful lines at Denver before having success with his zone blocking technique in Atlanta from 2004 through 2006 (Atlanta’s line was horrible without him last season). Gibbs was lured out of his one year retirement and the Texans should have better results in the rushing numbers, which were pretty bad last season (3.8 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team).
Houston had the 3rd best special teams in the league last season thanks to kick returner Andre Davis and his 30.3 yards per return and 3 TD’s. I don’t expect Davis to keep up that pace, but the Texans should still be solidly better than average in special teams. Overall, the Texans should continue to improve and are certainly a playoff caliber team. The only problem is a tough division in which the other 3 teams all won 10 games or more last season.
Pittsburgh continues to be among the best handful of defensive teams in the NFL, but the Steelers are getting gradually worse offensively as their once dominant offensive line slowly deteriorates. Pittsburgh wasn’t as good running the ball last season (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) and the Steelers’ line allowed quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to get sacked 53 times in 16 games. The loss of star G Alan Faneca to the Jets in free agency makes the line worse this season, so the Steelers could once again be worse than average offensively after averaging just 5.3 yards per play last season (excluding the meaningless week 17 game in which the starters didn’t play) against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Despite the loss of Faneca I expect the rushing attack to be better with rookie RB Rashard Mendehall giving starting back Willie Parker more rest, allowing both back to stay fresh. Ben Roethlisberger was actually below average last season, averaging 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB, but he was 0.4 yppp better than average in 2006 and should improve on last season’s numbers.
Pittsburgh’s defense had a great 2007 campaign, allowing 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Nothing has really changed for Pittsburgh’s defense this season, so I expect another very good unit in 2008. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been poor the last couple of seasons, but the punt return unit should be better with Eddie Drummond running them back. Still, kicker Jeff Reed doesn’t get good distance on his kickoffs and the coverage units haven’t been very good. Pittsburgh should be as bad in special teams as they’ve been the last two seasons, but they should be below average.
Overall the Steelers appear to be a solid team once again, but Houston is an underrated squad if their talented young defense plays at the same level that they played over the second half of 2007. My math model would have only favored Pittsburgh by 5 ½ points using last season’s stats for both teams, but Houston is a better team now than they were on average last season and my ratings favor the Steelers by only 3 points. Aside from the line value the Texans also apply to a decent 92-61-4 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.