Ben Burns | NFL Total
triple-dime bet200 DET / 199 GBP Under 45.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Packers and Lions to finish UNDER the number. I really like Week 2 in the NFL and have typically done well with my Week 2 picks by finding games (sides or totals) where the betting public has over-reacted to the results from the opening week. One of my winners from Week 2 last season was the 'under' in the Lions/Vikings game. The Lions had been involved in a shootout vs. a non-conference opponent in Week 1, knocking off the Raiders by a score of 36-21. Although it was only one game, public perception was that they had a very potent offense. Despite the fact that they were playing a divisional game against a Vikings team which allowed a mere three points the previous week, aided by the previous week's offensive explosion, the over/under line was a generous 43. I felt that was too high. Sure enough, the teams combined for just 34 points in regulation and 37 overall.
This season has some similarities as we've got the Lions coming off a high-scoring opener. While the Falcons are from the same conference, they're still from outside the division. Once again, the Lions face a division rival in their second game. Once again, I feel that the o/u line is much too high, based on the Week 1 results. Yes, the Lions gave up a couple of big plays and were torched on the ground by the Falcons. I really think that this defense will prove better than they showed in that game though and that we shouldn't over-react to one game. Throughout the entire offseason, the Lions' mantra has been to attack on defense and control the clock on offense. Trust me, they were disgusted with the Week 1 effort on defense and will be highly motivated to atone with a better showing this week. Note that during the preseason the Lions held ALL four of their opponents to 10 points or less, allowing a total of just 32 in four games. None of those four games produced more than 37 combined points and they averaged just 28.
As for the Packers, they played very well defensively in Week 1, holding the Vikings to just three first half points, six through the first three quarters and 19 overall. That game finished over the number with 43 points. However, that was somewhat of a bad beat for under bettors (myself included) as the score was 17-6 entering the fourth quarter before the Packers scored on a punt return. This gave them a bigger lead and caused them to relax on defense. Regardless, even the 43 points scored in that game wouldn't be enough to go over this afternoon's higher total. Note that the Packers' gameplan should include a heavy dose of the run this week, particularly after seeing the Falcons' success on the ground last week. However, it should also be noted that the ground attack may not be at full strength, as Ryan Grant is banged up. Regardless, as you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. As you probably also know, pass-happy coordinator Mike Martz is gone from Detroit and gunslinging QB Brett Favre is gone from Green Bay. Look for the 'new era' of this rivalry to begin with a relatively low-scoring contest. *NFC TOY