9-18-08

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock FB
3 units Colorado +3

[Mr. IWS]

Oscarxena Sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I lost my premium MLB selection last night as Baltimore fell 8-7 as big dogs. Here is a premium selection from tonight's card:

Baltimore/Toronto Under 10 -1.09 (3 Unit Play)

Best of luck to everyone this evening.

Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

ATSLOCKS.COM

Free Play--WVU@CO--OVER 56

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

Double-Dime Bet

West Virginia -3.0 vs Colorado

This line is way too short. Almost like taking candy from a baby. WVU has now had 12 days to recoup from its 24-3 loss at East Carolina, which all but dashed the Mountaineers National Title hopes. Still, remember this was a Top Ten team two weeks ago and while they certainly have lost a bit of that luster, Bill Stewart's team is substantially better than what Dan Hawkins has to offer in Boulder. Big East teams are actually on a 2-0 streak against the Big 12 with South Florida taking care of Kansas last Friday and L'ville taking care of Kansas State last night (we predicted both). The Mountaineers are 15-6-1 ATS as a road favorite while the Buffaloes are 0 for their last 9 at the betting window against non-conference BCS schools. They are also 1-6 SU when hosting non-conf BCS teams with the average loss coming by 16 PPG. Furthermore, CU is just 3-6 ATS as a home dog and 2-6 SU/ATS coming off a bye week. Coming into 2008, the Mountaineers had won 14 of 16 on the road, including five straight wins over non-conference opposition. After the ECU loss, Coach Stewart has made some noise about going back to some more basic zone option plays, which is bad news for Colorado, who doesn't see much of that in the Big 12 and will be unable to adjust to the speed of Pat White. West Virginia is our CFB Oddsmakers Mismatch.

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

Colorado +3 over West Virginia, Thursday, Sept. 18th at 7:30 PM CST

The coaching change and the new philosophy on offense has obviously hurt West Virginia this year. The Mountaineers are 1-1 with a win over Villanova and a 24-3 loss vs. East Carolina. The scary part is this, WVU was out gained in BOTH games. Nova’ out gained them by 45 yards and ECU by 135. This from a team that out gained every opponent in 2007 which the exception of Pitt who had 42 more total yards in the season finale.

WVU has switched to more of a pro style attack on offense and it’s really affected their running game. This year after two games they are averaging just 164 YPG on the ground. Last year the Mountaineers averaged 292 YPG on the ground which was good for 4th nationally in that category. QB Pat White has thrown a whopping 51 passes in his first two games this season. That’s the highest back to back game total in his entire career. For whatever reason, new head coach Bill Stewart has gone away from this team’s strength. White is not a great passer. He can be very effective when his team runs the ball for nearly 300 yards, thus opening up the pass. That’s not what is happening this year and it shows on the field.

Colorado is 2-0 after dominating Colorado State 38-17 to open the season and then skipping by Eastern Washington 31-24. They played very lethargic in their close win over EWU and head coach Dan Hawkins implied that his team was “looking at the logo on the other team’s helmet” rather than simply playing hard no matter who you face. This is a huge home game for the Buffs and we can expect a huge effort.

West Virginia’s defense has just four returning starters and none in the defensive backfield. That explains why they have really struggled to stop the pass. That’s bad news for them here as they face a very solid QB in Cody Hawkins. He has hit almost 72% of his passes in the first two games and he should be able to shred a WVU unit that has allowed 254 YPG through the air this year.

WVU is not ready to be laying points on the road to a solid team. They showed that when they went to East Carolina as a TD favorite and put up just 3 points. Both sides of the ball are struggling with the new systems and we have a much more stable environment with Colorado right now. We’ll take the home team to win outright.