10-16-08

[Mr. IWS]

Thu, 10/16/08 - 8:05 PM vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
920 BOS (-150) Bodog vs 919 TAM
Analysis:
** 2* ML WAGER ** (Matsuzaka vs Kazmir)

[Mr. IWS]

STU FEINER`S PLAYS way better than that LANG Guy!!!!!

50 DIME FSU - NC STATE Winner (SF1)

FSU (48) at N.C. State (+11) - 7:45 p.m. EST





It’s desperation time tonight in Raleigh for the Wolfpack and N.C. State will stay inside this double-digit spread as this is a very live home dog folks. The Wolfpack are a solid 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings including four outright victories as NC State is a team that has given the Seminoles fits in recent years. And this is a FSU program that has not played its best football under the Thursday night prime time lights going 4-4 SU in its last eight such affairs with five of those games coming down to the last minute. Yes, the Noles will find a way to win this evening in a hostile environment, but no way they cover this double-digit number. Both teams are coming off a bye week, but the Pack, at 2-4 SU, have gotten healthier during the break and welcome back several key personnel back to the playing field. DT Alan-Michael Cash is back tonight and that’s big as he will command attention from FSU. Also, big-play LB Nate Irving is expected back for the Pack. Yes, FSU has been pretty impressive with its rushing attack in recent weeks, but look for the Pack to stack the box and make inconsistent QB Christian Ponder make plays with his arm. The sophomore first-year starter is just 30 of 71 for 330 yards, one TD and six interceptions versus I-A competition this year. The Noles have also played well on the defensive side of the football, but the Pack gets back some injured offensive linemen this evening and QB Russell Wilson has been making plays for the Pack both with his arm and legs. FSU has also struggled stopping Wolfpack runner Andre Brown in the past (179 yards as a frosh, 113 yards as a sophomore) while I expect FSU to give ups some big plays on special teams as they did less than two weeks ago with poor tackling against Miami. Last game, NCSU return man T.J. Graham returned a kickoff 100 yards for a score against Boston College as he ranks first in the ACC in kickoff returns. Last year when his team was 1-5 SU, Tom O’Brien got his troops ready during the off week as they emerged from the break with an upset win at ECU on their way to winning four straight. They’re confident in such a repeat tonight. O’Brien will have his team pumped and ready tonight against a FSU team that is 2-4 SU/ATS as a road chalk its last six such tries. Just too many points for FSU with a shaky QB on the road to cover as NCSU stays inside this price.





N.C. STATE (+11) 50 Dimes


30 DIME BYU - TCU Winner (SF2)


BYU (47) at TCU (+1) - 8 p.m. EST



The nation’s longest winning streak will come to a close Thursday night in Fort Worth Texas as TCU will pull the upset over BYU. The Cougars are playing their first game outside the state of Utah in more than a month and will encounter a very talented TCU team that is accustomed to facing nationally elite programs. They battled gamely last month at Oklahoma in their only loss in seven games this season. Last year they led Texas 10-0 at half before succumbing. Two years ago they whipped a pass-happy Texas Tech team and three years ago they toppled the Sooners. Thursday night they’ll bring in the nation’s No. 1 team in the country in total defense at 207 ypg and are tops in rushing defense in allowing just 20.7 ypg. Of course they’re facing a very explosive Cougar attack, but the Horned Frogs, who have covered five of their last six as a home dog, will not be intimidated. Surly they learned something from last week in watching New Mexico run the football and control clock in losing 21-3 at BYU. Look for the Horned Frogs to pound the football behind an OL that returned four starters from last year. Starting QB Andy Dalton is expected to be back from a knee injury, but his replacement, Marcus Jackson, is more than capable of the leading the team, too. BYU’s defense has been solid, but its numbers are skewed having faced a sub-par schedule of opponents to date. I am not sold on this Cougar stop unit, but I do love the aggressive, hot-pursuing Horned Frogs defense. Only Oklahoma has scored more than 14 points on TCU this year as defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas will mix it up with blitzes and such and send a bunch of looks for BYU passer Max Hall to deal with. TCU enters this game ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense at 11.4 points allowed per contest. BYU may have won 16 straight games, but the truth is they haven’t had too many challenges or difficult situations to face in that stretch. That is not the case Thursday night as TCU is on home runs of 18-2 SU and 14-4 ATS since the 2005 season. Meanwhile, the Cougars, who have failed to cover in the two consecutive as a road chalk and were held to 382 yards last week by the Lobos, are facing their stiffest test since early last year. Look for a big-time prime time effort from TCU as the more tested Horned Frogs take this Thursday night win.



TCU (+1) 30 Dimes








ALCS Game 5 Winner (SF3)

Tampa Bay (Kazmir) at Boston (Matsuzaka) - 8:05 p.m. EST







This Game 5 total tonight from Fenway is just too high and it’s staying under. A lot has been said of how Scott Kazmir has struggled of late, but I expect the Tamp Bay starter to come big with an opportunity to help send his team to its first-ever World Series. Yes, the lefty and former staff ace has been slightly off of late, but he’s a gamer and he likes this park as in 11 career starts at Fenway he is sporting a 3.02 ERA. And of course, he’s facing a slumping Boston lineup that is batting a mere .241 during the playoffs. David Ortiz is batting just .161 in the postseason and as a team as a whole, the Sox just aren’t getting clutch hits. The Rays, though, have, but they’ll again struggle versus Boston starter Dice-K this evening. In his last two starts versus Tampa, Matsuzaka has allowed just one run and seven hits in12 frames. Ten of his 16 home starts this year have stayed under and he has a 3.34 ERA at home this year. The Rays are batting just .267 versus righty starters and they’ll again struggle versus Dice-K as this game will be tight and low scoring and it will stay under.





UNDER (9) (+100) 30 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Akmens Hockey

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa and Pittsburg

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Florida State Seminoles @ NC State Wolfpack - Thursday October 16, 2008 7:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: NC State Wolfpack +11 (-110)


ACC Battle here. Note, that this line opened up at -10 as FSU is visiting NC State and has risen up to -11. The total has remained steady at 48. Over 56% are in fact favoring the home dog here in NC State on a weekday night football. This game is on ESPN and you can actually get NC State on the ML at +330 if you'd like and FSU on the ML is around -420 this morning. FSU Stands at 4-1 while NC State is 2-4 and note that both teams are positive ATS wise as FSU this year is 2-1 ATS while NC State is 3-2 ATS. Although Ponder has thrown for 6 picks, he has down surprisingly well as he has thrown for 7 touchdowns and it seems that this team is riding him for the rest of the season after lack of production from Weather ford. The home team has won the last 2 times these 2 teams have met. FSU won 27-10 last year but NC State covered the 18 point road spread they faced and NC State won 24-20 at home the year before that. NC State is 6-0-1 ATS in this series the last 7 times these 2 teams have met. Harrison Beck and Russell Wilson have both thrown for over 500 yards for NC State but Wilson's stats are considerably better when looking at touchdowns to interceptions. Russell has thrown for 4 touchdowns and 1 pick while Beck has thrown for 2 touchdowns and 6 picks. FSU comes off back to back covers after they dismantled Colorado at home 39-21 easily covering the -6.5 and defeated Miami 41-39 on the road despite a furious come back for the Hurricanes. NC State has lost back to back games including getting spanked 10-41 at home to South Florida only to lose by a touchdowns to BC at home. They have lost back to back games. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS following a bye-week and 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss as well.

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB MoneyLine Triple-Dime Bet
301 Florida St. (-130) BetUS vs 302 N.C. State
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* "PRIME-TIME" TEASER of the WEEK ***



**BETUS has gone down to 10.5, like I was told we could expect as the day progressed...and now we can get an even better number on FSU...hopefully we can get it to 10 by kick-off**

FLORIDA ST -3.5 & TCU +6 (3*) Teaser...






Thu, 10/16/08 - 8:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
304 TCU -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 303 BYU
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER ** (Check Back for Possible Upgrade)



Thu, 10/16/08 - 7:45 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
301 Florida St. -10.0 (-120) BetUS vs 302 N.C. State
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* BEST BET of the DAY *** (UPGRADED)

(Buy the 1/2 to -10)




*** I see that as soon as some of the off-shore shops tried to go to 10.5, they were immediately bet back up...so if you are unable to get 10.5 and take it down to 10 by buying the hook...I still recommend a 2* Wager at -11...Although as I always try to stress, as sports bettors you can very easily increase your overall win% and therefore Profits, by taking the time to SHOP for the best number and also being aware of the market's reaction so that you are able to wait if need be, or fire immediately in other spots ***



*** BETUS has gone to -10.5, just like I was told earlier we would see...I went ahead and Posted this as -10 (-120), buying the 1/2 Point...although for the Teaser, we will wait and see if it gets to 10 on it's own, so that we can take FSU down to only -3...which would possibly make it a 4* GOM type of wager ***



Although I wanted to get the wager to you guys as early as possible for your convenience...I just wanted to add that I have already seen more than 1 book take this line down to 10.5...at which case I am able to BUY the 1/2 and take FSU down to -10...

Because at the present, the concensus is still 11...I went ahead and Uploaded it this way for Grading...

But I urge you to wait, like we are going to do...so that if the opportunity arises to get this at 10.5, and even buy it to 10 like we hope to do...you can do so...And then I will be able to adjust the posted Spread for us as well...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast 2 Marquee Plays (No stars)

Fla St -11

TCU -1'

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners

Thursday

5* TCU -1
1* Florida State -11

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
20* TB/BOS under

50* FL ST

[Mr. IWS]

FairwayJay
5* Top - Red Sox/Rays 'under'
Matsuzaka/Shields

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens full card

NHL

5* Tampa Bay Lightning (-170)

5* Pittsburgh Penguins (-120)

5* Dallas Stars /St. Louis Blues o5.0 (-140)

CFB

5* TCU

MLB

5* Boston Red Sox (-150)

[Mr. IWS]

The PRES
5* ALC SERIES BEST BET TOTAL
Tampa Bay at Boston Red Sox
Pitchers: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Scott Kazmir
Umpire: Alfonso Marquez (19-13, 1.72)
Conditions: Rain; 55 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing out to left field at 10 mph

Like the Phillies on Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are one win from the World Series. And while the pitching matchup somewhat resembles last night's righty-lefty battle that took place in Dodger Stadium, the pendulum swings in favor of the Red Sox. However, while everyone believes this game will be played close to the vest, low scoring per se, we don't believe that for a minute. Especially with a hitter-friendly umpire behind home plate.

Note: The Rays are hitting the cover off the ball, and the Red Sox finally get a left-hander they can pound.

Boston is 7-0 when facing elimination in the ALCS. The Red Sox came back from an identical deficit in last year's ALCS against Cleveland, and rallied from 3-0 down in 2004 to stun the New York Yankees in seven games. They went on to win the World Series both times. So calling the 3-1 lead by Tampa Bay a coup, could be premature.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-0, 2.25 ERA) took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning of Boston's 2-0 victory in Game 1 last Friday. He struck out nine, gave up four hits and walked four in seven-plus innings, but consider the contest a learning experience for the Rays' hitters. That was the first game, a situation that was rather overwhelming for young Tampa troupe.

Dice-K can't continue to strand runners at the rate he has this season, especially against a confident team with a small strike zone. Opponents were hitless in 14 at-bats with the bases loaded against Matsuzaka in the regular season, and he got Cliff Floyd to ground out in that situation in the first inning of Game 1. He wiggled out of another jam in the seventh as the Rays stranded seven total baserunners.

Since the poor performance against the Sox in Game 1, Tampa Bay's offense has dominated the series. The Rays have racked up 31 runs and 39 hits - including 10 homers - to win the last three games while getting contributions from up and down the lineup. Eleven Tampa Bay players have scored runs in the ALCS and six have homered, led by third baseman Evan Longoria, who's gone deep three times.

Scott Kazmir (0-0, 10.38), who starts for the Rays, has been average at best in the last handful of starts. His dominating slider has quit sliding and the lefty has all but abandoned the pitch. Kazmir is also the only Tampa Bay starter to pitch poorly in this series. He lasted 4 1-3 innings in Saturday's Game 2, yielding five runs, six hits - three homers - and three walks.

Kazmir is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA in 22 starts versus Boston, but 0-2 with a 9.27 ERA in five outings this season.

The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 20-6 in Rays last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter, 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest; 4-0 in Kazmir's last 4 starts vs. American League East, 6-1 in Kazmir's last 7 starts and 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.

The OVER is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 League Championship home games.

Home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez is without question a hitter-friendly vest. His strike zone is QuesTec small and he doesn't give pitcher much room to wiggle around the knees. A serious detriment to the success of Boston starter Dice-K. The OVER is 5-2 in Marquez's last 7 games behind home plate and is 4-1-1 in Marquez's last 6 games behind home plate vs. Boston this year.

5 UNIT Play on the OVER

[iavila]

IWS Zak doing a good job, keep up the good work. Do you have Kelso's BYU vs TCU play?

[iavila]

IWS Zak doing a good job, keep up the good work. Do you have Kelso's BYU vs TCU play?

[iavila]

IWS Zak doing a good job, keep up the good work. Do you have Kelso's BYU vs TCU play?