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Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Here you go...
Let's say you have a team down like 20 at the half... What's the play...?
TAKE THE LEADING TEAM AND THE UNDER AND, please, get a small play the PARLAY, also!
Note that I didn't mention numbers, because they simply don't come into play - there'll be a close one every once in a while, but this angle always seems to fit. That is to say, the action from people chasing their perceived-losing bets seems to drive the line to a number that always still fits.
I'm not exactly sure where the cut-off is, and as always, you do have to look at the overall match-up.
For example, a good team at home up maybe 10 or 11 on a weak opponent might be 60/40 or better. Bump that number up a little more - you're talking gold. At some point, the trailing team will start missing desparate threes as all of the starters head to the bench to get ready for tomorrow and the leading team just tries to play tight-D...milk the clock...dribble...pass... What else is there to do...???
...So inevitable...
On the road, with an even-ish match-up, the number is probably around 16. Tonight, the SA Spurs were up 20 (61-41) in Denver at the half - line at tip-off was DEN -4 O/U 195; halftime line was Spurs +6 O/U 101... 2nd half Spurs covered by 3 and under covered by 4 - a close call, but not really.
Last night, NYN at CLE: Knicks down 35-61 at the half - Tip-off line was CLE -15.5, O/U 214; halftime line was CLE -1.5 O/U 107.5 - Cav's covered by 8.5 and under by 3.5, again, seemingly close to going over...again, not really that close...
Also last night, the Lakers were up 10 in Philly - guess what - that didn't quite fit - again, it seems like the number is a little higher on the road....16, maybe 18, depending on overall match-up.
Note also that if there is no tomorrow - ie, during or fighting for the playoffs - this angle won't fit.
I'm going to try to dial the numbers in tighter on this and report back, but I couldn't wait to share this...
Please let me know what you think - I'm pretty sure I'm onto something here...
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Very interesting. Could be a good opportunity to make some bucks.
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
I shuold have mentioned that I discovered this angle by betting against it WAY too many times, while chasing that losing-big-at-the-half bet. I'd either play on the trailing team to come back a little, or maybe grab the over, hoping the trailing team at least makes a strong effort to come back.
They would never quite get there, even though they may have looked fairly promising early in the 4th. I'd kick myself in the ass, then forget about it, only to make the same bad plays again the next time the situation came up!
One day, just after locking in the wrong way again, I realized what I had done, and then made the 2-unit reverse bet - thank GOD I had bank at that point of the night!
I just realized that's another good idea: Don't beat yourself up over your losers! Do try to review your losers and try to see if maybe there is something to be learned from it...
I wish I could take my own advise more often!
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
IT'S ON!
Try
2H UTAH +3
2H Under 105.5
GL Everybody!
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Looked like the rout might on earlier tonite for NJN vs MIN, but late 2ndQ surge by MIN killed it w/NJ up only 9 at the half - MIN had a reason to come out fighting...
I can't beleive what an automatic lock this can be...
We have John Q Public chasing his perceived-to-be-loser (and of course the books know this - that's who they're throwing the line out for - us), at the wheel and driving this f***ing this automatically in our favor!
FCK GOLD - this may be plutonium fellas...
Stay tuned for...
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Yup...
It's ON!
Play-
DEN +3
Under 104
...don't forget a small parlay...
It's
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Dude, you got a Nice system here man.
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Whats the play on the Celtics vs Pacers at half time?
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Sorry, this angle only works when a rout is in progress (down around 20 at the half; it may fit elsewhere, depending on the overall matchup)... I will post whenever the rout is on & I'm playing it - if I'm around and got the internet available.
4Q just started & I really have no idea where this one is headed, but seems like Indy thinks they have a reason to play, and therefore, they are still in this - didn't see the line but pick here prob wuz Indy & over...
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Not sure this one fits...
LAL up 12 @ half... trying...
2H LAL -5.5
2H Under 103.5 (heavy)
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Lakers are 12 points up over the Bucks. I would class this as a rout in progress since the Lakers are the better team and playing on their home ground with a big lead.
Lakers are -17 on the line bet.
The game total at half time stands at +-177 (74 points have been scored so far up to half time.)
Ok lets give this a shot.
$100 on lakers -17
$100 on game total being under 177.
$20 on the parlay.
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Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half
Washington vs Boston at half time: 34-58 in favor of Boston. The line was -27, the total for the 2nd half was -188. I had no doubt in my mind that this was a route. After the third quarter, the score is 55-86. Looking right to be on track.
The Boston coach, however, decides to leave the entire Boston bench on for the last quarter. I bet 3K on the line, and as a result I lose 3K as they fail to cover as the bench failed to defend the points coming through. Why do coaches do this? At least put a few starters on to win the quarter and have a comprehensive 4 quarter crushing victory.
I don't think betting on a huge under is at all viable any more given that coaches / players (even referees) will do everything in their power to bring the scores down a bit.
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