What's up with the REVERSE Line Movement on TTech ???

[spuddy999]

TTech opened at -6 and has dropped down to -4

Supposedly, all the money is on TTech also:

Sportsbook.com has 81% on the side & 64% money line on TTech...
Wagerline.com has TTech as the top consensus pick at 75%...

Why is this number dropping???

Should I start to worry about my TTech -4.5 pick???

[Mr. IWS]

Not sure, Ill be on Tech though.

[Luke]

The big bets and high rollers are probably on Ole Miss causing the line movement.

With 82 % on Tech and 18 % on Ole Miss betting could be like this:

Just think if you have 82 100 dollar bets on Texas Tech and 18 10,000 dollar bets on Ole Miss the line will go down because there is more money on Ole Miss even though 82 % are on Tech

[spuddy999]

Yeah...

Looks like they must have had a ton of 'sharp' money come in when the number was high.

Covers.com has a 'report' from Michael Perry, an oddsmaker with Logans.com.
"Where the wise action is: Mississippi +6, +5.5, & +5"

That would help explain things, and I'm not gonna buy up to that number just to reverse myself!

This is still very interesting to me, as the books seem to be leaving themselves exposed and in big trouble if this one somehow lands on the 5 - they're gonna have to pay EVERYBODY!

[spuddy999]

I've been reading up on reverse line movement and came across this post on a similar thread from Pregame.com:

"sharp money will trump public money 99.9% of the time (events like the Super Bowl being that .01%).

there are people who think you can win by trying to bet with the sharps. the problem is that unless you get the # the sharps bet you will eventually go broke.

the only thing a sportsbook enjoys more than a square is a steam chaser who thinks they are sharp.
Regards,

Johnny Detroit
Director of Player Relations
johnny@pregame.com"

[Luke]

Pretty much what I said.


I never worry about which side the public is on or who the sharps are on,I just bet my plays.

I remember taking NE this year once when 87% of the public were on them and NE was on the road at Oakland .My bet won easily so I don't believe it matters .I think people spend to much time worrying about who the sharps and public are on when they should be breaking the game down

GL today spuddy

[RedHottG2]

The reason is the later money started coming in on Miss. I was and am still seeing it pour in late moving the line by three to four cents at a time.

[spuddy999]

I'll try not to let such things bother me so much in the future. Good advise!

Thanks, everybody!