1/7/09

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton


15 Dime: JAZZ (minus the points vs. Hornets)
5 Dime: MICHIGAN (minus the points vs. Indiana)
5 Dime: TENNESSEE (minus the points vs. Gonzaga)

Jazz
One word: Letdown. That’s the situation the Hornets are in. Last night, behind sensational performances from David West (40 points, 11 rebounds) and Chris Paul (32 points, 15 assists) and a dominating fourth quarter (27-13), the Hornets trounced the Lakers 116-105, becoming just the second team this season to win on Kobe’s home court. Now, after a late-night flight to Salt Lake, New Orleans has to play the rested Jazz (13-4 at home) and deal with a big change in altitude. It’s something the Hornets haven’t handled very well in recent years, as they’ve lost four straight games in Salt Lake (0-3-1 ATS) by an average of 21 points per game!

Overall, New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six games against the Jazz, and since dynamic point guards Paul and Utah’s Deron Williams entered the league, the Hornets are 2-8 against the Jazz. Also, the home team has cashed at a 6-2-1 ATS clip in the last nine meetings and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.



Now, there’s no doubt which team is playing better basketball right now, as the Hornets have won five of their last six and 16 of their last 21, while the Jazz are just 5-6 in their last 11 games. But as I’ve often stated, the NBA, more times than not, is more about situations than streaks. It’s why I backed the Bobcats last night against the Celtics, who were in the midst of a brutal 10-game, 18-day stretch were eight of the 10 contests were played on the road.



Well, in this one, Utah should be quite rested, as it has played just three games since Dec. 27, two of them at home, Meanwhile, New Orleans is completing a four-game, six-day road trip, with the first three being played against playoff-caliber opponents (Blazers, Nuggets, Lakers).



Also, the Jazz have won three in a row and five of six in Salt Lake, with victory margins of 27, 9, 9, 17 and 5 points. As for New Orleans, despite last night’s impressive win in Hollywood, it is still just 10-6 SU and 7-8-1 ATS on the road this year. Also, prior to last night, the Hornets had failed to cash in five straight games as an underdog, and they’re just 3-4 ATS in back-to-back situations this year (conversely, Utah is 13-6 ATS when playing after one day off, including 4-0 ATS in the last four in that spot).



New Orleans has averaged – averaged! – just 81.3 ppg in its last four trips to Utah, and dare I guess that in none of those four were the Hornets less than 24 hours removed from their biggest win of the season or playing their fourth road game in six nights. Clearly, this is a terrible spot for the Hornets, and their win in Los Angeles last night definitely got Utah’s attention. Lay the chalk.





Michigan



Kudos to Indiana for finding a way to hang with Iowa in Saturday’s Big Ten opener (65-60 loss as a 13-point underdog). But I wasn’t fooled, as the Hoosiers are still in for a looonggg conference season with a roster loaded with bench guys and walk-ons. They come into this game against surprising Michigan having lost four in a row and six of their last seven, including home defeats to – are you ready for this? – Lipscomb (74-69) and Northeastern (55-42). I know this Indiana program has pretty much hit rock bottom, but that’s downright ridiculous to lose to those two schools in Bloomington (and it makes me wonder if Iowa played the Hoosiers 4-on-5 or something).



Michigan comes into this contest with an 11-3 record (6-2-1 ATS in betting games), as the Wolverines have obviously turned the corner in the second year under talented coach John Beilein (formerly of West Virginia). Among those 11 victories are impressive wins over Top 15 foes UCLA (55-52) and Duke (81-73), and the same Northeastern team that won at Indiana lost 76-56 in Ann Arbor back in early November.



The Wolverines bounced back from a Big Ten-opening loss to Wisconsin (73-61) by rolling over Illinois 74-64 as a 1½-point home chalk Sunday. And a quick peek at the stat box shows advantages for Michigan up and down the line, as the Wolverines average 73.5 points per game (Indiana averages 60.2 ppg); shoot 44.1 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3-point land (Indiana checks in at 41.9 percent overall and 29.3 from downtown); make 77.8 percent of their free throws (Indiana makes 66.7 percent); and they allow only 63.8 ppg on 42.3 percent shooting (Indiana gives up 68.5 ppg on 46.5 percent).

With no real look-ahead to worry about with Michigan (its next game is against Iowa at home Sunday, this one’s a no-brainer. Wolverines cruise by double digits.

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
miami, milw,wash.(nba)
gonzaga(ncaa)

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman's
4'* 76'ers
3* Jazz
3* Pistons

4* Cinn
3* G Mason

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

COMP-NBA Toronto/Washington OVER

100* Vegas Steam Play---Utah Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo......10** Big East 83.3% **GAME OF THE YEAR**
Pick # 1 Cincinnati (-3.5)

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Suns -9.5
3 HORNETS +4
3 Evansville -8

ATS Financial Package
3 Magic +2
3 Temple -8.5

[Mr. IWS]

january 7 2009
frank patron 5000 unit college hoops winner

frank patron
5000 unit college hoops winner
cincinnati bearcats -3

[Mr. IWS]

Josh Dean
Drake -14 for 3 units
Indiana Pacers +10 for 1 unit

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso BB
25 ECU -7.0
5 Wichita St -3.5
3 Charleston +26
3 Jazz -4

[Mr. IWS]

Nsa 20*
NSA 20 * Rutgers +9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers 20* NBA GOM

Charlotte +13.5

[Mr. IWS]

COLLEGE HOOPS 20* SUPER K:
551 20* SUPER K - MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (CBB)

NOTE THIS GAME STARTS 1/2 hour earlier

[Mr. IWS]

Balfe (he's been rock solid in the NBA, not the NCAA so much)

NBA Basketball
Grizzles +4 over Nets

NCAA Basketball
Indiana State +14 over Drake

[Mr. IWS]

RAS Sides - 1 unit each


Wilmington 5.5
George Mason -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet
550 East Caro. -7.0 (-110) BetUS vs 549 Tulane
Analysis: Stan is Betting E. CAROLINA today. This number is too low as Vegas has based this line on E. Carolina's recent games. Tonight E. Carolina drops in class and will get back into the Winner's Circle with a Big Win. Stan has E. Carolina winning by 12-15 points. TAKE E. CAROLINA as STAN'S BASKETBALL TRIPLE DIME PLAY and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
NBA
100* Utah Jazz
30*Orland over
20*Miami Under
20* Indiana over

NCAAB
20* William & Mary
20* James Madison

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

4* Cincy
3* Rutgers
3* Atlanta (NBA)

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky
6* Harvard +18.5

4* tennessee -3

4* Jazz -4

[Mr. IWS]

IC -

CBB (POD): 4 Unit Play. #552. Take Indiana +7.5 over Michigan (Wednesday @ 6:30pm est).

3-0 Sweep yesterday.

4 Unit: Hornets +8 over Lakers: Outright Winner
4 Unit Ohio State +9.5 over Michigan State: Winner.
3 Unit: Tulsa: Easy Winner

10-4 Last 14 days in the NBA. 10 of 14 Winning Days. In fact, 5 of 6 Winning Days in NBA (5-1).
12-6 Run Overall.
4 of 5 Winning Football weeks after Tulsa easily yesterday.
2-0 (+8 Units) in College Basketball this week.

Let's go 3-0 this week for college basketball and hit our 3rd straight. Michigan is a top 60 team that got it done over Illinois at home most recently. That was a huge win considering Illinois is a top 25 team in the power rankings. But, Michigan has yet to win a road game this year. They went to Maryland and lost by 5 and even lost to Wisconsin at home. Indiana however has been decimated with the Calvin Sampson situation and is outside a top 200 team. But, things are changing in Bloomington. When watching this team against Iowa, it has shown how much impact the once Marquette coach has had on this scrub of players he has brought together to sustain the history of Indiana basketball until scholarship can be once again given. I want you to think how admirably this team played on the road in their recent five point loss to Iowa on the highway. It was a brilliant effort. Of course, 66% of the public will ride Michigan here but they are wrong in my mind. After all, we are the same group that took Ohio State over Michigan State as well as Loyola Maryland over Niagara as we went against the public in both of those plays. I think Michigan has a let down after their big win over Illinois. Any team that can play that well on the road in Indiana as 13 point dogs and lose by 5 points is truly impressive. Heck, this is the same team that defeated TCU and Cornell at home as well. Indiana is no powerhouse this year. But, they are a team that is coming together and gelling. Consequently, you will see them cover many conference games at home in the Big 10. After all, in relatively low scoring games, they are getting a lot of points. Plus, with the home crowd behind them in Bloomington, this team could very well likely be in this game for the outright win the final few minutes. I think that effort in Iowa translates over to this game against Michigan who is in for a let down and plus, once again, Michigan has yet to win a true road game. I think you are going to see a very spirited effort from Indiana today as they are in this game from start to finish as we stay inside the number and go 3-0 for CBB on the week.

NBA (POD): 4 Unit Play. #503. Take Orlando Magic +2 over Atlanta Hawks (Wednesday @ 7:05pm est). It's not often that I go against my Hawks, but my job is not to support my team as much as it is to give my clients the best opportunities to make money. Such is the case today with the Magic on the highway against the Hawks. I have rode the Magic all season long when the opportunities present itself and the most recent time was as early as back in December when this team dismantled the Hornets by 20 at home. One of my favorite coaches is consistently Stan Van Gundy. The man gets his team up for a "big" game better than anyone else. Although the Magic started the season a bit slow compared to their standards, they have certainly picked it up. This team is 22-12 ATS and they lost to Hawks in the first game of the season. That game truly caught the Magic off guard. Well, similar to the Hornets getting revenge against the Lakers Outright which was our POD, this will be the case today as the Magic get their revenge against the Hawks. Remember, revenge is what led to Charlotte defeating the Celtics at home, revenge is what led to the Magic defeating Portland Outright as a 4 point Underdog in the Rose Garden, and revenge is what allowed the Magic to crush the Hornets at home as well. Thus, that is the revenge we ride today as the Magic are in Atlanta today in the conference tilt. The Hawks are a good team, but time and time again this season at home they have started the game slow such as their contest against the Warriors, Bulls and Chicago which they managed for a big fourth quarter and came back. Well, that changes today. The Magic are the fourth quarter of fourth quarter teams since Van Gundy has been there. Plus, this team will not start this game slow and they will not let off the gas pedal. Plus, the Magic lost their last road game to the Nets in OT so there is even more incentive to win on the road today with revenge against the Hawks who have not been as dominant at home as the margins indicate as many of those games and covers come off the heels of huge fourth quarters. The Magic are a defensive team and that will simply not happen today. The Magic are 6-1 ATS of late as road underdogs and the Underdog is 5-2 ATS in this series of late. Magic play with a chip on their shoulder today and likely win this baby outright today.